Trade Deadline: Last Season
Jonathan Willis
February 26 2009 09:43AM
With trade deadline nearly upon us, it’s probably useful to revisit last season’s moves. First, let’s consider the team standings from late February of last season. I’ve taken the liberty of dividing the teams in each conference into three categories, based on accumulated points totals: Stanley Cup contenders, playoff contenders, also-rans. Any team more than five points ahead of eighth is considered a Cup contender, while any team more than five points below eighth is considered an also-ran.
Western Conference
1. Detroit – 62GP – 89 PTS 2. Dallas – 63GP – 79 PTS 3. Minnesota – 59GP – 72 PTS 4. Anaheim – 63GP – 73 PTS -- 5. San Jose – 59GP – 70 PTS 6. Nashville – 61GP – 69 PTS 7. Phoenix – 64GP – 66 PTS 8. Calgary – 59GP – 66 PTS 9. Vancouver – 59GP – 66 PTS 10. Colorado – 64GP – 65 PTS 11. Columbus – 61GP – 63 PTS 12. St. Louis – 58GP – 63 PTS -- 13. Chicago – 58GP – 60 PTS 14. Edmonton – 60GP – 59 PTS 15. Los Angeles – 62GP – 53 PTS
Eastern Conference
1. Ottawa – 59GP – 73 PTS 2. New Jersey – 60 GP – 73 PTS 3. Montreal – 60 GP – 73 PTS 4. Pittsburgh – 59 GP – 71 PTS -- 5. NY Rangers – 61GP – 67 PTS 6. Philadelphia – 59GP – 65 PTS 7. Boston – 58GP – 64 PTS 8. Carolina – 62GP – 64 PTS 9. Buffalo – 59GP – 64 PTS 10. Atlanta – 61GP – 62 PTS 11. NY Islanders – 59GP – 62 PTS 12. Washington – 60GP – 62 PTS 13. Florida – 61GP – 60 PTS -- 14. Tampa Bay – 59 GP – 56 PTS 15. Toronto – 57GP – 54 PTS
Based on these standings, it would seem that there were only five teams that were locks, or near-locks to sell, while eight teams would certainly be buying. The other seventeen teams could go either way, but based on the fact that more than half the teams in the league make the playoffs, and that nearly all teams on the bubble seem to buy rather than sell (playoff revenue being all-important to most clubs on the verge of break-even), the notion that the number of sellers would far outweigh the number of buyers seems like a usable working hypothesis. Let’s consider first what the Cup Contenders (again, based solely on points in the standings) did.
Cup Contenders
Last Season: Detroit, Dallas, Ottawa, New Jersey, Montreal, Anaheim, Minnesota, Pittsburgh This Season: San Jose, Detroit, Boston, Washington, New Jersey, Calgary, Chicago
Detroit
- Traded a 2nd and 4th round pick to LA for Brad Stuart
Dallas
- Traded Jussi Jokinen, Jeff Halpern, Mike Smith and a 4th round pick to TB for Brad Richards and Johan Holmqvist
Ottawa
- Traded a 6th round pick to CHI for Martin Lapointe - Traded Patrick Eaves and Joe Corvo to CAR for Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore
New Jersey
- Traded Cam Janssen to STL for Bryce Salvador
Montreal
- Traded Cristobal Huet to WSH for a 2nd round pick
Anaheim
- Traded a 3rd round pick to NYI for Marc-Andre Bergeron - Traded Brandon Bochenski to NSH for future considerations - Traded Brandon Segal and a conditional draft pick to TB for Jay Leach - Traded a 7th round pick to LA for Jean-Sebastien Aubin
Minnesota
- Traded a 6th round pick to NYI for Chris Simon
Pittsburgh
- Traded Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Angelo Esposito and a 1st round pick to ATL for Marian Hossa and Pascal Dupuis - Traded a 2nd and 5th round pick to TOR for Hal Gill
Analysis: Surprisingly enough, most of these top teams did not make big acquisitions. Minnesota, Anaheim and New Jersey made low-cost acquisitions, and even Detroit didn’t make a big splash to acquire Brad Stuart. Of the teams that did make big moves, Pittsburgh and Dallas both had lengthy runs, but paid dearly for the players they acquired, while Ottawa made big moves but were knocked out in the first round.
In the case of Pittsburgh and Dallas, it could certainly be argued that they received value on their trades, although both teams have suffered for it this season. Pittsburgh was unable to hang on to Hossa, and could certainly use some of the young players they dealt, while Dallas was forced to ride Marty Turco at the start of the year for lack of another option; something that put them into a deep hole they’ve only recently emerged from.
While in most cases, a team like Ottawa would have been well-advised to buy, Bryan Murray should have recognized how many of his team’s points came from an early season run, and how badly they faltered down the stretch. Trying to re-energize the team with mercenaries did not pay off.
Montreal decided to stand pat for the most part, but Bob Gainey refused to allow Cristobal Huet to depart for nothing and sent him to Washington for a draft pick. As much as I’m a fan of keeping an eye on the big picture and maximizing assets, this move was a major surprise and turned out to be a mistake. Montreal looked like a contender early on, but Carey Price faltered in net and Montreal had no option to fall back on. Had Gainey retained Huet, the 2008 playoffs might have turned out a little differently.
This season, with the top-three teams well clear of everybody else, I think that teams need to think long and hard before buying. Any of New Jersey, Calgary or Chicago could go on cup runs, but I’d suggest that they would do well not to mortgage the future on a marquis addition, choosing instead to add role players to improve their depth and shore up areas of weakness. Washington won’t need to play one of the big three until the Conference Finals; I’d argue that they might do well to buy this season. I’d be surprised to see big additions to Detroit or San Jose given how close to the cap they sit, but Boston might surprise and could do themselves a service by picking up a big name.
Playoff Contenders
Last Season: San Jose, Nashville, NY Rangers, Phoenix, Calgary, Vancouver, Philadelphia, Colorado, Boston, Carolina, Buffalo, Columbus, St. Louis, Atlanta, NY Islanders, Washington, Florida This Season: Philadelphia, Montreal, NY Rangers, Vancouver, Florida, Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus, Minnesota, Dallas, Edmonton, Anaheim, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Los Angeles, St. Louis
San Jose
- Traded Rob Davison to NYI for a 7th round pick - Traded Steve Bernier and a 1st round pick to BUF for Brian Campbell and a 7th round pick - Traded future considerations to CAR for Justin Forrest - Traded a 6th round pick to CBJ for Jody Shelley
Nashville
- Traded a 7th round pick to TB for Jan Hlavac - Traded future considerations to ANA for Brandon Bochenski
NY Rangers
- Traded Marcel Hossa, Al Montoya and a conditional draft pick to PHX for David LeNeveu, Fredrik Sjostrom and Josh Gratton - Traded a 4th round pick to STL for Christian Backman
Phoenix
- Traded David LeNeveu, Fredrik Sjostrom and Josh Gratton to NYR for Marcel Hossa, Al Montoya and a conditional draft pick
Calgary
- Traded a 3rd round pick to PHI for Jim Vandermeer
Vancouver
- Traded Matt Cooke to WSH for Matt Pettinger
Philadelphia
- Traded Alexandre Pickard and a conditional pick to TB for Vaclav Prospal - Traded Jim Vandermeer to CGY for a 3rd round pick - Traded a 3rd round pick to LA for Jaroslav Modry
Colorado
- Traded a 1st round pick to CBJ for Adam Foote - Traded Karlis Skrastins to FLA for Ruslan Salei
Carolina
- Traded Andrew Ladd to CHI for Tuomo Ruutu - Traded Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore to OTT for Patrick Eaves and Joe Corvo - Traded Justin Forrest to SJ for future considerations
Columbus
- Traded Adam Foote to COL for a 1st round pick - Traded Sergei Fedorov to WSH for Tedd Ruth - Traded Curtis Glencross to EDM for Dick Tarnstrom - Traded Jody Shelley to SJ for a 6th round pick
St. Louis
- Traded Bryce Salvador to NJ for Cam Janssen
Atlanta
- Traded Marian Hossa and Pascal Dupuis to Pittsburgh for Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Angelo Esposito and a 1st round draft pick
NY Islanders
- Traded Chris Simon to MIN for a 6th round draft pick - Traded Marc-Andre Bergeron to ANA for a 3rd round pick - Traded a 7th round pick to SJ for Rob Davison
Washington
- Traded Matt Pettinger to VAN for Matt Cooke - Traded Tedd Ruth to CBJ for Sergei Fedorov - Traded a 2nd round pick to MTL for Cristobal Huet
Florida
- Traded Ruslan Salei to COL for Karlis Skrastins - Traded a 5th round pick to TOR for Wade Belak
Analysis: Of the seventeen teams in this range, 4 were out-and-out buyers, 5 were out-and-out sellers, and 8 teams either stood pat or made moves of minimal impact. Of the four buyers, one was knocked out in the first round (Washington), two in the second (San Jose, Colorado) and the last in the Conference Finals (Philadelphia).
Of the eight teams that did little, four (PHO, VAN, CAR, STL) missed the playoffs, three (NSH, CGY, BOS)were knocked out in the first round, and one (NYR) made the second round. None of the sellers made the playoffs. On the other hand, it’s dangerous to read too much into this, as the selling teams were near the bottom of this range, and the buying teams near the top for the most part; in other words the success of these teams has more to do with their original strength than their moves at the trade deadline.
It is worth noting that most of these teams did a combination of buying and selling – presumably filling holes from positions of strength. It’s likely that most of the teams in this range this year will do the same. In my article yesterday, I suggested that the Oilers acquire a third line centre and move away some veterans on long-term contracts. Based on last season, it seems probable that the Oilers will do something along these lines. Likely, the teams at the top end of this group will become buyers, while the teams at the bottom end drop off and become sellers.
Also-Rans
Last Season: Chicago, Edmonton, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Los Angeles This Season: Phoenix, Colorado, Toronto, Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, NY Islanders
Chicago
- Traded Martin Lapointe to OTT for a 6th round draft pick - Traded Andrew Ladd to CAR for Tuomo Ruutu
Edmonton
- Traded Dick Tarnstorm to CBJ for Curtis Glencross
Tampa Bay
- Traded Jan Hlavac to NSH for a 7th round draft pick - Traded Jay Leach to ANA for Brandon Segal and a conditional draft pick - Traded Brad Richards and Johan Holmqvist to DAL for Mike Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Jeff Halpern and a 1st round draft pick - Traded Vaclav Prospal to PHI for Alexandre Picard and a conditional draft pick
Toronto
- Traded Hal Gill to PIT for a 2nd and 5th round draft pick - Traded Wade Belak to FLA for a 5th round draft pick
Los Angeles
- Traded Brad Stuart to DET for a 2nd and 4th round draft pick - Traded Jean-Sebastien Aubin to ANA for a 7th round draft pick - Traded Jaroslav Modry to PHI for a 3rd round draft pick
Analysis: This is probably the most interesting bit to last season’s trade deadline. Chicago and Edmonton, two young teams coming off rebuilding seasons, made few moves, with Chicago sending out one pending UFA for a draft pick and making a player for player swap, while Edmonton sent off one pending UFA for another pending UFA. Even Toronto and LA only sent away role players, making the Lightning the only seller having a full-out fire-sale.
That likely suggests that the sellers this season won’t be parting with nearly as many marquis pieces as fans (and people like Eklund) would like – they may settle for sending off lower-profile free agents and taking lower draft picks in return.
Conclusion
It seems likely to me that trade deadline this year will be disappointing for the majority of fans out there; last season very few elite players moved, and most of those to a handful of top teams. The stronger teams in the middle range tend to turn into buyers, while the weaker teams drop further out of the playoffs and turn into sellers.
I’ve always been a little dubious as to the value of deadline acquisitions, but last season the teams that picked up pieces at the deadline seemed to do quite well for themselves, and there’s no denying that some of the names on this list were big factors down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Come on Tambo - get moving lol...
Pens trade Whitney to Ducks for Kunitz & Tangradi
Nice article Willis.
BUCK75 - FMNF wrote:
Obviously a pre move for something bigger (CFP or Neids).
...not gonna lie...I skipped to the conclusion.
The Towel Boy wrote:
Lazy bugger.
Good article... I still can't get over the Huet trade. Just didn't make sense. Oh well, its only the Habs. And as for Whitney going to the Ducks, does that mean Pronger is a sure bet to get traded? Probably. TAMBO...BRING HIM BACK TO E-TOWN!!!! Just kidding.
Do you all realize that all he have left in value for Pronger is Smid and a departing Cole (the draft picks appear to be busts at this stage)?
And what about making a pitch for Frolov?
based on last season the Habs must be itching for an experienced goalie on an expiring contract - would you do Roloson for Halak?
I like looking at where we were last year compared to this year. It makes me feel more optimistic.
Peter Pan wrote:
Based on what? Riley Nash and Eberle are the two players we picked and they are our two best prospects. Admittedly we dealt up to get Nash, but we would not have been in a position to do that if not for the Anaheim pick.
I still say the Oil should try very hard for Kovy and Reasner from Atlanta you could give up Cogs, Nilsson, Gilbert, MAP Schremp and a pick then your lines would be Kovy, Horc, Hemmer second line of Penner, Gagner, Cole 3rd line or Moreau, Reasner, Pies and a 4th line of Redoxx, brods and Storts. If we did this our D would hurt as Vis is out parings would be Souray, Steve 2nd Smid Grebs and third Struds and Pecham. I could live with this D but it would be nice if you got Morris to help out the rest of this year and playoffs as Vis will be back next year. With this trade our forwards are much improved that first line would be one of the best in the west, and Giving Gagner to big bodies that can score (not much till now) would help him as he is a pass first guy that third line is a great shut down line that also can score and the fourth has proven to be very reliable. get it done Tambi.
BUCK75 - FMNF wrote:
As if pittsburgh did that trade....idiots!!!!
sittingatmydesk wrote:
Yes they did do that trade The Ducks must be trading away salary Prongs next ?????
swany wrote:
Maybe he will come back to Edmonton!
*drool*
Wanye Gretz wrote:
Great maybe we can talk Gretzky to come out of retirement and get 215 points again to Drool, trade him to Calgary then they can hear his wife whine and cry
PIES BACK TONIGHT Grebs back for Saturday, BUT don't rule out tonight either as he skated yesturday and said it felt great Crossed fingers, bows head in prayer
Wanye Gretz wrote:
No f*cking way
swany wrote:
I started out writing a piece about the many reasons why this trade would never happen. The more I researched my position, the less certain I became.
On the face of it, looking only at points, I conceed it's not as ridiculous as I first thought; Atlanta's #1 and #8 guys for our #4 and #6 guys. Point still stands, though, that Nilsson, MAP, and Schremp are bit pieces at this point and could only be used as deal-sweeteners. The two main fish you're throwing out, especially Cogs, are not franchise players. As has been suggested already, Atlanta might be better served just to fold tents and make ready to move if they ship the face of the franchise out of town. Fans in Georgia go to hockey games to see Kovy, and while you might argue that Gibby and Cogs would make them better over the long haul, especially with the other scraps you're throwing in, I don't think that helps the Thrashers when they file for Chapter 11 next season, playing above .500 at that point or not.
Wanye Gretz wrote:
I love the 4 person quote ^
Pittsburgh blew their load last year when they traded Armstrong to Atlanta. Now they give up a young, low salary (2.5) defenceman for 2 grinders. Although Kunitz can score.
Kunitz - 1.5 Million Tangradi - Entry level (500K ?)
Looks like Ducks will move CFP or Nieds, you would think that Whitney has the upside to replace them + a cheaper player.
Ender the Dragon wrote:
You forgot GILBERT a #2 D man
swany wrote:
Peter Pan wrote:
Why didn't KLOWE make pronger sweat for 3 - 5 months and have his sugar momma pay the bills while he sat home in cosmo St. Louis under house arrest for allegedy misbehaving in Edmonton - nobody is holding KLOWE for FOLDING in the summer months like an army tent and the other shoe will drop if the RAKE gets traded - what Anaheim gets back will be the pivotal point - foreshadowing what KLOWE lost when he couldn't stand to hold him and instead folded him aka Kenny Rogers.
Bottom line - KLOWE showed he can't handle the pressure and is easily taken advantage of - and this summer resorts to name calling Burke while his $4mm per year pet project implodes - forget firing MACT - what about Sid Vicious and the roster problem vs cap roi we have here. Maybe a promotion to a non hockey operation position would suffice and keep silent katz warm and fuzzy with the boys on the bus memories..... really - can anyone refute this..... I am hoping that Bettman gets fired and KLOWE bolts from this debacle for corporate pay in NY where he knows the neighborhood.
On another corporate note, what happens if the coyotes had a miracle and made the playoffs and nobody came ? The city of Glendale admitted this week that the coyotes were getting free rent to keep a float. Once one team falls - the others such as Atlanta, Tampa, Florida, Nashville will come tumbling down - take away the assistance program and there would be carnage.
swany wrote:
Why trade when you can pickup players on the dispersal draft or fire sale under chapter 11 - check out the thrashers attendance - the demographic could care less about hockey (MIRTLE)
www.fromtherink.com/2008/10/21/639757/thrashers-attendance-plumm
Thrashers owners suing each other - viability of the thrashers is in doubt - kovy to get the hell out via trade
www.ajc.com/thrashers/content/sports/hawks/stories/2009/02/14/atlanta_spirit_court.html
Deep Oil wrote:
No, refuting it would be tough, I agree. Refuting vague and unconnected points of opinion is never easy.
BUCK75 - FMNF wrote:
Ducks are in survival mode - must keep costs in check while the owner is off to the crowbar hotel....
Seems a familar tune of an NHL owner going to jail - bottom line with Samueli off the board and his wife running the show - all monies have to be geared down while this stock option back dating plan was caught by regulators...... with many NHL owners being charged with corporate crimes.....
Samueli - http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/09/08/financial/f103557D45.DTL
Melnyk -http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/securities/2009/02/former-biovail.htmlhttp://lawprofessors.typepad.com/securities/2009/02/former-biovail.html
Boots - http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20081214140338AARHhSI
swany wrote:
Adam Gretz (RSS feed) wrote:
The GM seems pretty definitive; Kovy will start next season in Atlanta.
Ender the Dragon wrote:
Thanks Dragon - nothing vague about LOWE's actions of overspending and creating this negative roster with decisions that end up in the LOSS category 50% of the time. Could you imagine if Penner, Horcoff, and Cole produced this year and we had 10 - 12 more points - then everyone would be happy and drinking the kool aid from BROTHER LOWE.
How long can Lowe suck Rexall Sports for a salary.. he is personally responsible for $15mm a year in players salaries that are non performing while he refused to sign Glencross who excelled even higher this year with better players and more ice time to our friends down south.
This is one average team that can beat any team any night and lose to any team any night - one step forward - one step back - must be the KLOWE two step.
Ender the Dragon wrote:
Well that's very short sighted on his part, if they are SO broke like the articles are saying what chance do they have of re-signing him next year and if they can't what would they get a couple of picks at the deadline, also with beeing so Broke they must have a budget they can't go over Kovy will get 8 mil they can'yt afford that stupid not to get everything possible NOW and I believe Peter Puck said Gretzky wasn't going anywhere right before he sold him.
@ Deep Oil: Every time I read one of your posts I can't shake the picture of Mel Gibson in "Conspiracy Theory" working away in his foil lined apartment. Have you read "The Catcher in the Rye" lately?
@ Deep Oil: Yes, Deep OIl, it is vague and opinionated. What you define as overspending may not be seen that way by everyone, and any number of measuring sticks can be used on individual players.
Even where many informed fans agree the contract today doesn't look like it fits the player (read: Dustin Penner), that doesn't mean it didn't look good the day of the signing. It sure is easy to point out how much smarter you are than Lowe when you're comparing your hindsight to his foresight. The team you would have signed, I'm sure, would win the Stanley cup every year, right? Everyone you picked would inevitably produce an increased PPG every year, right? That's what I thought.
Every GM in the league makes tough decisions. In a lot of trades, one side 'loses'. The trick to being a successful GM isn't to hit 100% and if that's your measuring stick, then no GM we ever have could be successful by your standard. The trick is winning more deals than you lose and being right more often than not; if you can do that, you should be successful over the rival teams in the league and hopefully make money from there.
Should Lowe have signed Glencross? It's easy to say yes now, isn't it, but not very many people would be barking up that tree if Hossa were skating here today. Lowe risked something for a better deal and it didn't pan out. To say 'he is personally responsible for $15mm a year in players salaries that are non performing' is completely vague; it doesn't define 'non-performing' and it gives no basis of comparison to other GM's. Why don't you do what Willis does and pull up the same statistical measurement on all the other 'non-performing' contracts for every other GM in the league, and then compare them to Lowe? But if you were unbiased, I'm sure the results wouldn't fit your agenda, would they?
@ swany:
On the other hand, what would a Kovalchuk trade do to the Thrashers attendance?
Trading your marquis player when you're the GM of a struggling franchise on- and off- the ice is very rarely a defensible move.
Then again, Don Waddell's made so many moves that are indefensible you just never can tell.
swany wrote:
Is this what happens to some NHL owners...... http://business.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081219.rmpuck1218/BNStory/specialROBmagazine/home/?pageRequested=all
Days after the third and final raid, Pocklington declared personal bankruptcy. In U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Pocklington's personal liabilities are listed at $19.7 million. In his declaration, Pocklington claimed that his net worth totalled just $2,900: $200 in his wallet, a $500 watch, a $500 set of golf clubs, $300 of clothing and shoes, $450 in appliances and furnishings, $450 worth of personal goods seized and $500 worth of memorabilia, trophies and art. But lawyers for Balcombe argue in U.S. District Court that Pocklington is far from a pauper—that he has vastly understated his personal assets in California and is also hiding money in the Bahamas. They wonder what happened to his valuable hockey memorabilia, notably five Stanley Cup rings.
I don't think the oilers need a 3rd line centre, they have one his name is Brodziak. They need him on the 3rd line instead of the 4th, the problem is that the oilers have too many centres and not enough of them can adapt to playing on the wing.
@ Deep Oil:
Bait and switch, right? State something that is true, then state an opinion and say that that is true as well. Then people eat up both statements like gospel, right?
Yeah, Pocklington pulled some crap. We all get that. That also has absolutely nothing to do with the Atlanta Thrashers, so stop creating stupid parallels to make people think you know something when you don't.
Could the Thrashers change their mind and deal Kovy? They could, but they'd have to be able to sell the results in their market, and I can't imagine what you'd have to get back to make a fan in Geogia like that deal.
Ender the Dragon wrote:
What friggen maket, NO ONE is going to the games anyways, Did you guys read the to links supplied above? there attendance is crap What they trade Kovy and go from bringing in 6000 fans to 4000 fans big friggen deal.
Ender the Dragon wrote:
All GM's have non performing contracts - it just appears that Lowe has his full share of them this year - and no one is holding his feet to the fire - all the pressure is on MACT - not fair.
Burke objected on the day of the signing, most Edmonton fans laughed at Burke and jumped on the bandwagon, I was not one of them - this was a large commitment when it was obvious that a lower amount by $1.25 mm per year was even plausible that Burke would not counter. This represents 1.25 mm per year overpayment x 4 years - do you think Burke would have signed Penner for $3mm per year. To make it worse - after showing up overweight and his head in the clouds for season one - LOWE goes off full metal jacket on Burke with no ammunition other than the Stanley Cup rings that he won with other winners - does he still have VERTIGO - REALLY ?
I live in the present LOWE - not in the past - but your silent owner seems to have trust in you while you make an ass of yourself on the airwaves - so bad that the COUNT from NHL head office has to send you to room for 15 minutes - is this the type of GM I want to sign with otherwise known as cry baby.
Horcoff should have his photo in all the post offices for armed robbery. Respectfully, you mention Hossa, I can throw in Vanek if you want - you can't play woulda coulda shoulda with UFA's that did not sign here....why don't they want to sign here, weather, city demo, team professionalism on and off the ice - LOWE has turned this into the gulag - as mentioned with is blood money from comrie to get out of this asylum.
Excellent UFA signing test - If for any reason I want to trade this contract - would any GM be interested in acquiring it - in most cases the answer is no.
Pisani, Roloson, put the screws to Lowe after the cup run - LOWE gave into public perception and bent over on these lower priced contracts - but still overpaid.
Nillson - MACT throws KLOWE under the bus this year and says his bad habits from NYI are still here - are the coach and the GM on different planets giving an extension to a lazy SOB - I can't make this up.
Cole - not happy here - uncomfortable - does not engage - gone - see ya thanks for the coffee. Remember he was traded here - did not sign here.
Cause and effect - I look at NHL numbers and KLOWE is given a pass with Cogs and Gags playing top 6 minutes at entry level pricing - forget the Hossa contract - doesn't this team look forward to what is going to happen when the youth movement will demand $3mm per year and then LOWE's mistakes will become VERY VISIBLE.
Right now he is using the youth contracts of Nilson. Cogs, Gagner, to buffer the non performance of the top line - what happens when the young guns start asking for Gilbert money - really - and then the cap goes down after this year of bank meltdown.... most banks in the USA will not make loans for homes over $500K - the worst is yet to come.
What you have here is a bunch of overpaid non performers and a bunch of plumbers making $900k - so from a mechanic's point of view you have a chevy and the bling rims keep falling off - when you should of bought the cadillac with factory rims - forget the bling - just give me performance.
Bottom line is one day we are 9th, next day we are 6th and so on..... does anyone have ANY confidence any night that we can beat the opponent or is it a bet that you would be afraid to make......
I look at the NHL in terms of GM's and they seem to have way more security than coaches - look at non winner slats, Gene Melnyks mancrush with Bryan Murray, and the albatross in Tampa with "cowboy owners" empowering Brian Lawton.
My thoughts are not hindsight, when Lowe bent over on these players paying roughly 25% - 30% higher than he should - the net result was either your bottom end was really shallow - or you lack that one additional scorer that sometimes was right in front of you (in this case - Glencross was cheap like borscht).
Go Columbus - someone has to take responsibility otherwise it will be the Toronto Maple Leafs West with a .500 record and a playoff appearance every 4 years.
Cheers, Remember to buy and think Rexall Drugs - this is your Rexall Reminder
Ender the Dragon wrote:
The only parallel I was making is when Gretz was traded Peter Puck said it would never happen. That's it Owners and GM always say a guy will never be traded and sometimes the Opposite happens.
@ swany:
Just because Atlanta knows they suck doesn't mean they're willing to just roll over and die. You're basically just wishing we could get an early jump on the dispersal draft, is that it? :)
@ Deep Oil:
You're a funny guy. On the one hand, you criticize Lowe harshly for paying too much money to free agents, and on the other hand, you criticize him for not signing Glencross to a rich (sorry, you said cheap) deal.
We know Glencross was angling for big money early on based on the published reports, and by the time the price went down the Oilers were chasing Hossa.
If 1.2M/yr had been viable initially, absolutely Lowe should have signed him, but it didn't become viable until the money was already allocated.
As much as I like to criticize the mistakes Lowe's made, I do think the course of action the Oilers took with Glencross (considered in context) was reasonable.
@ Deep Oil:
Thank you for your last post. While I had been trying to discredit you as a paranoid delusional, I think you've done a better job than I ever could all by yourself. You win; congrats.
Ender the Dragon wrote:
My trade proposal gives them some very good talent just not SUPERSTAR talent like Kovy, The kicker is Gilbert he is a #2 D-man on most teams he puts up good points and can move the puck, I think Don Waddel would take a long look at this
swany wrote:
Bottom line is skeeter and billy bob in Atlanta wouldn't even know who KOVY is.... free agency seems to be the best option - signing for 12 years - playing for 7 and cheating the cap system with teams that want to play ball with a buyout for no cap penalty at the end - and Bettman was the pawn who agreed to this system that his own GM's are now bending the rules on - see Zetterberg contract and Garth Snow with being the genius matching Khabibulin money over 15 years - no one figured it out until the Zetterberg scam.
@ Deep Oil:
Are you absolutely sure that nobody in Atlanta knows who Kovalchuk is?
@ swany:
If Don Waddell had Edmonton's market and fans, I think he would (and probably should) take your deal.
The problem, though, is that you have to look at the Thrashers like a prospective surgery patient. It isn't enough to say 'This patient needs surgery'. Maybe they do, but if they're so sick and infirm as to be unable to survive the anesthesia, then the procedure becomes a moot point. No sense having a successful operation if the patient dies on the table, right?
How is this the Thrashers? Gibby and Cogs, along with your other parts, probably have Atlanta looking for the post-season within 2-3 years. (I don't have a crystal ball, so yes, I'm picking those numbers out of my ass, but I look at their roster after you've completed your trade and I still don't see tham moving into contention next year.) I just don't think the Atlanta ownership can keep hemmoraging money that long, and it can only get worse if the one superstar that Georgia fans have come to count on isn't there to love anymore. Kozlov is the new Superstar you want them to pay money to see?
You're trying to sell team-wins to Atlanta as a means to gaining fan-support; good theory, but that plan will take time to come to fruition, and I don't think the Thrashers have a lot of that on their side.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
So what you are saying is that timing is everything and that Lowe / Katz couldn't close the deal and lost on the other side of the coin - with the Red Deer boy going local south instead of north......
Sorry 1.2 million over 3 years is not rich money (really) even common folk that are not NHL players can earn that per annum - it is the penner and horcoff non performing contracts combined by the "failures of Cole" according to Spector - Hockeycentral...... sometimes you get lucky with a player under $2mm - to summarize - signing Glencross is not a risk - less money than Georges Laraque in past years...... more goals and more hits.
Given the blender that MACT has been known for - Glen X would of eventually by hook or by crook found first line minutes - as he has found in Calgary and stayed in the top 6 - can't see the forest for the tree's.
I just can't believe that oilnation bloggers would let LOWE have a free ride on this - how long can you take it, I dumped my $10K tickets this year and went of three trips to sun and fun instead - I think I got more value watching the oil lose in scottsdale, the DR and Nuevo Vallarta instead of paying these sausages..... really - pass the sun tan lotion and I will have a crown a coke - no fruit.
@ Jonathan Willis:
Nice post, Jon. Exactly my point; Kovy is their Gretzky. He means more to them than the sum of his statistics. The home of the New Flames might be able to go on without Iggy, but the home of the Old Flames likely wouldn't make it without Kovy.
Ender the Dragon wrote:
Is it safe to say that Atlanta is the walking dead - much like a zombie as the ownership group engages in suicide via lawsuits.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
I am talking Atlanta citizens - not a puff award that is 3 years old - for the record I don't have much faith in these awards - didn't chicago award Mark Bell for man of the year prior to going to jail. Hope Kovy can stay clear of the evil that lurks amongst professional athletes......
Yoni Goldstein on hockey player Mark Bell: The NHL's crook of the ... Just a few years ago, Mark Bell, then a forward playing for the Chicago Blackhawks in the National Hockey League, was named that city’s “Man of the Year” ... network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/.../archive/.../yoni-goldstein-on-hockey-player-mark-bell-the-nhl-s-crook-of-the-year.aspx - 78k - Cached - Similar pages
Ender the Dragon wrote:
With or without Kovy - they are fincially ruined. See Mirtle's blog - kind of ironic on valentines day...
http://www.fromtherink.com/2009/2/14/759058/thrashers-lawsuit-holds-fa
Bait . . .
Deep Oil wrote:
and switch . . .
Deep Oil wrote:
Notice how D.O. doesn't come right out and say that Kovy's a thug; he just tries to leave you with the impression that he knows something, when the truth is that he's just really good at spreading manure.
Ender the Dragon wrote:
No I did not say that Kovy is a thug - you just implied it.... between NHL owners going to jail and players planning to kill their agents, dui's, and goaltenders breaking down doors in Colorado, Montreal players having go to guys charged with drug offences - everything is just peachy. Thank God for the Staal brothers - the worst they ever did was streak naked and play their ghettos too loud. Mostly NHL players are drinkers as that is the drug of choice - as Molson does sponsor hockey night in Canada right ?
NHL's Staal brothers arrested in Minnesota 25 Jul 2007 ... Hockey brothers Eric and Jordan Staal were among 14 men arrested at a Minnesota resort over the weekend after police responded to noise ... www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/story/2007/07/25/nhl-staals-arrested.html - Similar pages
@ Deep Oil:
Agreed that 1.2M is not an expensive contract; on the other hand, that likely wasn't the contract the Oilers would have signed to get him.
It's hilarious that you can complain about the 2M/yr Nilsson deal and argue a few posts later that anything 2M or under isn't really a risk.
You ever see that demonstration that self-help folks do sometimes with rocks, sand and a glass jar? If you put the sand in first, you can't fit in the rocks, but if you put the rocks in first the sand fits in around it.
In other words, you need priorities, and on the priority scale Hossa >>> Glencross. If, as reported, Glencross was asking for significantly more money until UFA period actually struck, then Lowe was right to prioritize the way he did.
And btw, the fact that Atlanta is averaging just over 14K fans/game doesn't make it a crappy market; just last season they were hovering around the 16K mark, and they were higher before that. Losing drives fans away everywhere.