Around the League - Something smells FOWLer...

Jason Gregor
March 18 2010 10:38AM

Tyler Seguin was rated #1 by ISS (International Scouting Services) on Tuesday, which will re-ignite the Hall or Seguin debate into a full-blown frenzy.

There are great arguments for both players, and Jonathon Willis had an interesting piece on their point production in the OHL this past season. The most surprising stat he uncovered was that Seguin had 34 five-on-five goals compared to Hall’s 19. That is a substantial difference, and re-affirms what I’ve said before: that Hall isn’t a better goal-scorer than Seguin. Hall might be better pure goal scorer, but the stats say Seguin is just as productive, if not better than Hall. I don’t care how a player scores, just how many.

The debate over Hall and Seguin will rage on right up until the Oilers, or the team that wins the lottery, steps up to the microphone on June 25th. I’m looking forward to reading, hearing, watching and listening to both sides explain why their guy should go first.

I expect to read some interesting debates between now and then, but I wonder if some guys just say things to be different. Here’s what Jeff Marek had to say when asked who the Oilers should draft first: Hall, Seguin or Cam Fowler.

If I were the Oilers I’d probably look to trade down with whomever is at the No. 3 position, pick up another pick or an asset and select Cam Fowler (or maybe even Erik Gudbranson of the Kingston Frontenacs). The Oilers have good young forwards joining the squad as early as next year. Forwards like Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, to complement Sam Gagner and the returning Ales Hemsky. What this franchise needs is a stud on the blue line more than it needs another skilled forward.

This has to be a case of trying to sound different; otherwise Marek is way off base.

I decided to go back through the draft and look at the top-five picks and see how many defenseman came from those slots.

1963: No D-men taken in first round. Of course there was only six picks back then. Pete Mahovlich was the best pick going 2nd to Detroit.

1964: None taken again. Ken Dryden was a 3rd rounder and the best pick by far.

1965: Pierre Bouchard went 5th to Montreal. He was a steady D-man but he wasn’t close to being a franchise player.

1966: Brad Park went 2nd to the Rangers and went on to a Hall of Fame career.

1967: Rick Pagnutti went 1st overall but never played a game.

1968: Jim Pritchard went 3rd and never played a game.

1969: Dick Redmond went 5th, and tallied 445 points in 771 games. He had a career-best 59 points with Chicago, but with Stan Mikita and Bobby Hull he was never the go-to guy. He was solid but not spectacular.

1970: Dale Tallon went 2nd to the Canucks. Reggie Leach, Rick MacLeish and Darryl Sittler all went after him. Tallon never became an impact player.

1971: The Canucks took another D-man, Jocelyn Guevremont with the 3rd pick, and he never became an impact player.

1972: Jim Schoenfeld went 5th to Buffalo and was a steady and rugged but not spectacular defenseman. He is more remembered for his “Have another donut” quote.

1973: Denis Potvin went 1st to the Islanders and he scored 1052 points in 1060 games. A true impact D-man.

1974: Greg Joly went 1st and Rick Hampton went 3rd. Wilf Paiment, Clark Gillies and Pierre Larouche went 2nd, 4th and 8th respectively. Who would you want?

1975: Bryan Maxwell went 4th to Minnesota and Detroit took Rick Lapointe 5th. Neither was a stalwart.

1976: Washington took Rick Green 1st overall and California showed why they didn’t last long in the league choosing Bjorn Johansson. Green had a steady career with Montreal, while Johansson played 15 games. Hall of Famer, Bernie Federko went 7th.

1977: Barry Beck went 2nd and Robert Picard went 3rd. They had steady careers, but were far from impact players. The best pure goal scorer the NHL has ever seen, Mike Bossy, went 15th to the Islanders.

1978: No D-men were taken in the top five. Behn Wilson went 6th to Philly, Willie Huber 9th to Detroit and Brad March 11th to Atlanta. All were rugged, but far from franchise a top-to D-man.

1979: Rob Ramage went 1st overall in one of the best drafts in NHL history. Ramage was a very solid D-man, but was never considered a franchise player. Ray Bourque went 8th and eleven of the 21 first-rounders played 1000+ games. Mike Gartner went 4th and Rick Vaive went 5th.

1980: Some great D-men were taken this year. Dave Babych went 2nd to Winnipeg, Larry Murphy went 4th to LA and the Oilers chose Paul Coffey 6th. Denis Savard went 3rd to Chicago and I’d argue he was the most valuable to his team of the top five picks.

1981: Joe Cirella went 5th to Colorada. Jim Benning 6th, James Patrick 9th and Garth Butcher 10th were other D-men taken. Some pretty good forwards went in the top-five, Dale Hawerchuck 1st, Bobby Carpenter 3rd and Ron Francis 4th.

1982: Gord Kluzak went first to Boston and had his career was plagued with knee problems. Gary Nylund went 3rd, but the best D-men were Scott Stevens, 5th and Phil Housley 6th.

1983: Only four D-men were taken in the first round. Bobby Dollas 14th, Gerald Diduck 16th, Bruce Cassidy 18th and Jeff Beukeboom went 19th. Pat Lafontaine, Steve Yzerman, Tom Barrasso, John MacLean and Cam Neely were all taken in the first nine picks.

1984: Al Iafrate went 4th to Toronto and Petr Svoboda 5th to Montreal. Both were decent players and Iafrate had a bomb, but Mario Lemieux, Kirk Muller and Ed Olczyk were the first three picks. Once again the forwards made a much bigger impact.

1985: Craig Wolanin went 3rd and Dana Murzyn went 5th. Both became stay-at-home D-men and neither were the best D-men in the first round. Dave Manson 11th and Calle Johansson 14th turned out to be better. Wendel Clark did go first overall and played both forward and defence with the Saskatoon Blades, but he played forward with the Leafs.

1986: Zarley Zalapski and Shawn Anderson went 4th and 5th overall. Compared to Joe Murphy 1st, Jimmy Carson 2nd, Neil Brady 3rd and Vincent Damphousse went 6th. Brady was a bust and Anderson didn’t do much either. Brian Leetch was the 9th pick and became the best player in the draft.

1987: Eleven D-men were taken in the first round, with Glen Wesley 3rd, Wayne McBean 4th and Chris Joseph 5th. Pierre Turgeon and Brendan Shanahan went one and two. Wesley was a solid player, but would you choose him over the first two picks? Nine D-men were picked before Joe Sakic went 15th.

1988: Curtis Leschyshyn went 3rd to Quebec, after Mike Modano and Trevor Linden. No comparison in the impact he had compared to the first two. Jeremy Roenick, Rod Brind’Amour and Teemu Selanne went 8th to 10th.

1989: No D-men went in the top-five and Kevin Haller, 14th to Buffalo, was the best of any first-rounder defender. The best D-men were taken later. Nick Lidstrom 3rd round, Adam Foote and Patrice Brisebois went in the 2nd round. Mats Sundin, Stu Barnes and Bill Guerin went 1st, 4th and 5th.

1990: A good top-five class. In order: Owen Nolan, Petr Nedved, Keith Primeau, Mike Ricci and Jaromir Jagr. Darryl Sydor and Derian Hatcher went 7th and 8th.

1991: A true impact D-man in the top-five with Scott Niedermayer going 3rd behind Eric Lindos and Pat Falloon. Yes, San Jose took Falloon ahead of Niedermayer. Scott Lachance and Aaron Ward went 4th and 5th.

1992: No great players in the first round. Roman Hamrlik went 1st; Mike Rathje 3rd and Darius Kasparaitis went 5th. Sergei Gonchar went 14th to Washington and is the best 1st rounder. One could argue the best player taken this year was Nikolai Khabibulin, taken in the 9th round by the Winnipeg Jets. Not a stellar draft year.

1993: The Human Rake (Chris Pronger) is an elite player and he was taken 2nd behind Alexandre Daigle. Chris Gratton, Paul Kariya and Rob Niedermayer rounded out the top five.

1994: Ed Jovanovski went 1st and he is easily the best of the top five, Oleg Tverdovsky, Radek Bonk, Jason Bonsignore and Jeff O’Neill were taken after him. You can argue that Jovanovski has made a significant impact on his teams.

1995: Bryan Berard, Wade Redden and Aki-Petteri Berg were the first three picks. The only time in NHL history that three D-men went first. Chad Kilger and Daymond Langkow rounded out the top five. None turned out great, but Redden is clearly the best of the five.

1996: The string of D-men going in the top continued with Chris Phillips going 1st, followed by Andre Zyuzin and Richard Jackman went 5th. J.P Dumont went 3rd and Alexandre Volchkov was a three-game bust for the Capitals. Phillips is a solid D-man but far from spectacular.

1997: The Islanders took Eric Brewer 5th after Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Olli Jokinen and Roberto Luongo. Brewer is a steady D-man who never has a significant impact on a game-to-game basis.

1998: Brad Stuart, Bryan Allen and Vitaly Vishnevsky went 3rd through 5th after Vincent Lecavalier and David Legwand were one and two. Stuart is a very useful D-man, while the other two were a number four at best. You’d probably take Stuart over Legwand, but not ahead of Lecavalier.

1999: Only eight D-men went in the first round (28 picks) and none in the top five. Patrick Stefan was a bust going first overall, but the Sedin sisters and Tim Connolly were good picks at 2nd, 3rd and 5th. Barrett Jackman went 17th and is a solid stay-at-home player, but he’s maybe a #2 D-man at best.

2000: Rostislav Klesla went 4th to Columbus, after Rick Dipietro, Dany Heatley, Marian Gaborik and before Raffi Torres. His impact isn’t close to Heatley or Gaborik, but ahead of Torres.

2001: No D-men went in the top five, and Mike Komisarek was the first chosen at number seven. Komisarek or Dan Hamhuis (12th) are the best D-men from the first round, but they don’t come close to Ilya Kovalchuk (1st), Jason Spezza (2nd), Mikko Koivu (6th) or Ales Hemsky (13th) when it comes to making an impact on their respective teams.

2002: Here is the exact case of trading down from #1 to #3 and taking a defenseman. Florida had the 1st pick, but moved to third and took Jay Bouwmeester. The Panthers got the choice to swap first round picks with Columbus in 2003, but didn’t use it because they had the higher pick going in. Bouwmeester is a solid D-man, but he never led the Panthers to the playoffs. Granted Nash only did once, but it seems obvious who has more impact in the game and to the fans.

2003: No D-men taken in the top-five, but Ryan Suter, Braydon Coburn and Dion Phaneuf went 7th to 9th. Marc-Andre Fleury, Eric Staal, Nathan Horton, Nikolai Zherdev and Thomas Vanek were the top five picks. Phaneuf and Suter would be considered on par or slightly better than Vanek and Horton, but not in same class as the top-two picks.

2004: Cam Barker went 3rd after Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin. Andrew Ladd and Blake Wheeler rounded out the top five. Barker is a solid, but unspectacular blueliner and isn’t one who can control the pace of a game.

2005: Another D-man in the third slot with Jack Johnson going to Carolina. Johnson is getting better every year, but so far he isn’t on par with Sidney Crosby or Bobby Ryan who went 1st and 2nd. Benoit Pouliot and Carey Price went after Johnson. In a few years Johnson might be considered more of an impact player than Ryan, but I doubt it.

2006: A clear case of forwards making more of an impact. Defenseman Erik Johnson went first to St. Louis, and a golf cart accident slowed his progress, but Jordan Staal (2nd), Jonathon Toews (3rd), Nicklas Backstrom (4th) and Phil Kessel (5th) are all ahead of him right now.

2007: Thomas Hickey was a shocking pick at number four by Los Angeles and Karl Alzner (5th) has yet to make a statement in Washington. Patrick Kane has been great in Chicago, James Van Riemsdyk (2nd) looks good in Philly and Kyle Turris (3rd) is still a work in progress for Phoenix. Kane is a bonafide star, and Van Riemsdyk looks like a solid player, while the others are question marks.

2008: For the first time ever, four D-men went in the top-five. Drew Doughty went 2nd followed by Zach Bogosian, Alex Pietrangelo and Luke Schenn. I think Doughy’s play in the NHL and at the Olympics has some thinking that Cam Fowler can be the same type of player. That is a big if. Guys like Doughty don’t come around that often. If you had to choose between Doughty or Steven Stamkos and his 40+ goals, who would you take? I don’t think it is slam dunk in favour of Doughty.

2009: It is way too early to know who will have the most impact amongst these five. Victor Hedman was the only blueliner amongst the five, while John Tavares, Matt Duchene, Evander Kane and Brayden Schenn are all potential offensive stars. So far Duchene and Tavares are leading the way, but we’ll need at least three of four more years to make an accurate assessment.

Playing defense is much harder to learn and master at the NHL level and that’s why it takes most D-men longer to develop. We also see few elite D-men taken in the first five picks.

By my count in the 47-year history of the draft, only seven have emerged as elite defenders. Brad Park, Denis Potvin, Dave Babych, Larry Murphy, Scott Neidermayer, Chris Pronger and Ed Jovanovski. Drew Doughty looks like he’ll join that group and the jury is still out on Bogosian, Hedman, Suter, Phaneuf, Johnson and Johnson. Considering that the latter seven have all been drafted in the past seven years, it is doubtful that all of them will become elite defenders.

Fowler might become a solid defender, but the odds are more likely that Hall or Seguin will have a bigger impact. To suggest that the Oilers should drop two spots, pick up a prospect or another pick and pass on Hall or Seguin is ridiculous. The Oilers don’t have any young, skilled forwards who have the pedigree of Hall of Seguin.

Ice woman

I think that Nashville might have the hottest girls in the league. Say hello to Denise, one of the Equipling Dance Girls. Did you know the Predators have Liquid Ice Girls and Dance Girls. She loves reality TV, describes herself as sarcastic, loves traveling, singing and prides herself on being an undefeated air hockey player. Of course she is undefeated no guy could concentrate while playing her.

   

Random thoughts

  • Was there a better UFA signing this past summer than Mikael Samuelsson? Mike Gillis signed him to a three-year pact at $2.5 million per season. Samuelsson scored his 30th goal this week, before being sidelined for two weeks with a shoulder injury. That is great bang for the Canucks’ buck.
  • The Flames won’t catch Detroit, and they’ll be hard-pressed to pass Nashville either. The Wings play the Oilers twice and Blue Jackets three times. The Wings play the Preds twice and the Flames will be praying that one of them sweeps the two games in regulation.
  • If the Oilers keep Jordan Eberle in Springfield without giving him a taste of the NHL, then I think it is fair to say that the organization is more concerned about him not living up to their expectations than the fans are. It shouldn’t be that way.
  • Who wins rookie of the year: Tavares, Duchene or Tyler Myers? Some in Detroit are making a case that Jimmy Howard should get some consideration as well, but he is 25 compared to the three teenagers. I’ll pick Duchene.
  • How do the Phoenix Coyotes keep doing it? The Yotes have won six straight and their next win will be their franchise best 44th. Lee Stempniak has replaced Scottie Upshall’s offence and the Coyotes have an outside shot to catch the Sharks and Hawks for the conference title. The fans are starting to turn up and if the Coyotes win a round or two in the playoffs, I doubt there is any talk of them relocating this summer.
  • The West will have four new playoff teams this year, compared to last, if the Preds hold off the Flames. That is great for the league and even better for the fans. If the league can continually have six to eight new teams in the playoffs every year it will keep more fans interested.

Leader through the season

Here are the top ten in pts, goals, assists and other stats.

Goals:
45:
Sidney Crosby
44: Alex Ovechkin
42: Steven Stamkos
41: Patrick Marleau
36: Marian Gaborik, Dany Heatley, Ilya Kovalchuk
33: Zach Parise and Jeff Carter
32: Alexander Semin, Anze Kopitar and Alex Burrows

Assists:
66: Henrik Sedin
63: Joe Thornton
57: Martin St. Louis and Brad Richards
56: Nicklas Backstrom
53: Paul Stastny and Mike Green
52: Ovechkin
51: Patrick Kane
50: Daniel Sedin and Duncan Keith

Points:
96:
Ovechkin
94: H. Sedin
87: Crosby
85: Backstrom
81: St. Louis and Thornton
80: Stamkos
77: Patrick Kane
76: Brad Richards
73: Gaborik and Marleau

Plus/Minus:
+41:
Ovechkin
+37: Jeff Schultz
+32: Backstrom, H. Sedin
+31: Mike Green and Daniel Sedin
+30: Alex Burrows
+27: Christian Ehrhoff
+26: Alex Semin
+23: Zach Parise

***Patrick O’Sullivan has a big lead for the green jacket sitting at -32. Shawn Horcoff has closed the gap to -29, while Rod Brind’Amour is -27 and rookie Michael Del Zotto is -22 along with Steve Staios.

PP Goals:
18: Stamkos
17: Heatley
14: Anze Kopitar and Gaborik
13: Mike Richards
12: Marleau and Crosby
11: Jeff Carter, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Ryan Kesler, Evgeni Malkin, Brooks Laich and Ilya Kovalchuk.

Hits:
266:
Cal Clutterbuck
264: Ryan Callahan
246: Dustin Brown
228: Stephane Robidas
218: Steve Ott
214: Brooks Orpik
208: David Backes
206: Brendan Morrow
205: Chris Neil
204: Matt Greene and Scott Nichol

Shots:
314:
Ovechkin
298: Jeff Carter (20 shots this week)
290: Parise
257: Phil Kessel (22 shots this week)
255: Crosby
246: Vincent Lecavalier
242: Marleau
241: Henrik Zetterberg
238: Kovalchuk, Stamkos, Heatley and Malkin

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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#51 Matt Henderson
March 18 2010, 01:15PM
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Petr's Jofa wrote:

@ Archaeologuy

And by the time that 3 years is up who know where the cap will have gone and what 3rd line ceters are getting paid.

*crosses fingers for 3 years*

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#52 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
March 18 2010, 01:16PM
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Petr's Jofa wrote:

@ Archaeologuy

And by the time that 3 years is up who know where the cap will have gone and what 3rd line ceters are getting paid.

Ya I think people are really discounting the soon to be inflating cap. I was calling for a flat cap for 2010/2011 all last summer, now I wouldn't be suprised if theirs a 2-3 million increase for 2010/2011 and then back to double digit growth after that.

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#53 MoJo
March 18 2010, 01:18PM
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Am I alone in thinking that we're better off not rushing all the kids into the show?

To me it seems likely that putting together Kid Line Part 2 (Hall/Seguin, Eberle, MPS) is a recipe for disaster - particularly if Quinn and his line rolling stays on (which I know is questionable).

If the kids do join - how much are they likely to contribute? I think we're better off using next year as a burner year and get another top 5 draft pick while blooding Hall/Seguin. The following year we can look to bring in Eberle if he can contribute in the AHL.

We're better off focusing on creating a winning culture in OKC - blood our prospects there and stop the sh!t show that is our farm team. Guaranteed that will pay dividends in 2 - 3 years time.

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#54 Petr's Jofa
March 18 2010, 01:22PM
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Matt Henderson wrote:

I dont know if capgeek has this right, but assuming they do, then Horc doesnt have a NMC in 3 years time. Right when Eberle and our pick this year are coming off their entry level contracts.

With the roster turnover on this team and the fact that he is still just a prospect, I wouldn't get too conserned with the cap space required in 3 to re-sign Eberle ect.... Just don't handcuff yourself with with big contracts to old goalies.

Assuming we aren't a playoff contender next year (I know it's a stretch), our top 10 pick in the 2011 draft will be in or looking to break into the league on an entry level contract.

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#55 The Towel Boy
March 18 2010, 01:23PM
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Petr's Jofa wrote:

Yeah, the rest of us were real geniuses. (or is it genii?)

*contemplates living in some laser building college kid's closet until the Oilers are respectable again*

For the record, I absolutely LOVE that movie. One of Val Kilmer's finer performances. Well, that and "Top Secret".

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#56 Tracie
March 18 2010, 01:27PM
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MoJo wrote:

Am I alone in thinking that we're better off not rushing all the kids into the show?

To me it seems likely that putting together Kid Line Part 2 (Hall/Seguin, Eberle, MPS) is a recipe for disaster - particularly if Quinn and his line rolling stays on (which I know is questionable).

If the kids do join - how much are they likely to contribute? I think we're better off using next year as a burner year and get another top 5 draft pick while blooding Hall/Seguin. The following year we can look to bring in Eberle if he can contribute in the AHL.

We're better off focusing on creating a winning culture in OKC - blood our prospects there and stop the sh!t show that is our farm team. Guaranteed that will pay dividends in 2 - 3 years time.

You assume that we will be putting all the rookies on one line and i think if we do that, i totally agree with you - we are DUMB! But if we put Hall/Seguin with Hemmer and Gags/Penner (depending on if we get the winger or the center) and then put Eberle with Horc and Penner (assuming we take Hall) and then put MPS with Brule and Potulny or Comrie, that wouldn't be so bad would it? then there is balance in our line up, right?

Not shutting down your theory b/c I am not necessarily for all these guys coming up at once...I'm just thinking that those look like pretty good lines if all works out and no one is injured!

We do need some winning blood in OKC though so bring Hall/Seguin up would be a must (cuz they can't go down to the minors, they'd go back to junior) and that Leaves Eberle or MPS to go to the AHL...does anyone know if we have other prospects in junior that can play in the AHL next year that would help our AHL team?

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#57 Matt Henderson
March 18 2010, 01:35PM
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@Tracie

I dont know if MPS would come just to play in the AHL. He would probably stay in Europe (not what I think is best given the team's history of injury and dependency on AHL players).

As far as Eberle though, he'll be 20 next year and will likely earn his spot on the Oilers. If he doesnt I dont think Tambellini will blink twice sending him to the AHl. He is patient if anything.

Hall/Seguin, as the 1st or 2nd overall pick, I bet he also makes the team based on merit. Who is he beating to make the squad? POS or Chris Minard?

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#58 MoJo
March 18 2010, 01:36PM
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@ Tracie

From what I understand I think Petry and Chris Van de Velde finish up their NCAA careers. I also think there could be something special in Anton Lander.

I know it is unlikely that all kids will be playing on the one line, but at the same time I for an unproven commodity against pros like Ebelre is - development on the first line in the AHL >>> development on the third line on bottom 10 NHL team.

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#59 Jmask5
March 18 2010, 01:40PM
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I can only think of 3 D-men that were drafted in the top 5 that went on to help the team that drafted them win the Cup.

Scott Nidermeyer Denis Potvin Petr Svoboda

There may be others.

So what does that mean? It means that usually teams who win the cup build their D-core through lower picks, trades and UFAs.

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#60 madjam
March 18 2010, 01:41PM
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Oilers play .500 hockey from now to end ,and they are assured of finishing dead last i believe . At the point they lock up that coveted spot , i see no reason not to bring Eberle for some type of assessment in NHL ranks . At the rate they are going, that would probably leave about 7-8 game development and evaluation without ruining his status going into next season . Will it effect him if he does not pan out early next season and they prefer to keep him in the minors - is the only question ? Could they still keep him for 8 games into next season if they find he is better off back in AHL ? If not ,then i see no good reason not to bring him up . He's going from a loser in Regina to a loser in Springfield - so he goes to another loser in the NHL. Whats the difference compared to a jump on what could the best beneficial experience for him ?

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#61 Matt Henderson
March 18 2010, 01:51PM
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@madjam

I think* next year he's 20 and his contract isnt affected by how many games he plays in the NHL. He can be brought up and down from the minors as much as the Oilers want.

*might be wrong

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#62 quicksilver ballet
March 18 2010, 01:56PM
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nickxero wrote:

Enough of the rebuilding?! It's barely begun!

Jagr would not be brought in as an offensive dynamo... if anything, he would be a great mentor for all the young guys coming up and someone to wear the "C" who isn't Shawn effin' Horcoff. Addressing the on-ice leadership is a vital part of this rebuild... which will be going on for a couple of years if it's done right.

(I mostly don't want Eberle up this season because the further he is from Moreau the penalty drawing husk, the better.)

So please... stop screaming "ENTERTAIN ME!". You know not what you speak.

You're correct sir.

It's just not worth 8500.00 a year to me anymore. Sooner or later it comes down to if i'm getting my monies worth.

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#63 madjam
March 18 2010, 02:02PM
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I wonder if Oilers and Toronto finish 30 and 29th respectively ,if Boston would be willing to swap picks(their Toronto first round pick ) if we win lottery , and add a Chara to mix ? If Hall and Sequin are that close maybe we might see some unexpected action in the direction i have mentioned ? Boston may yet have a good pick of their own first round if they keep losing as well ,to play with !It's an avenue /opportunity for the Oilers worth at least checking out .

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#64 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
March 18 2010, 02:06PM
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madjam wrote:

I wonder if Oilers and Toronto finish 30 and 29th respectively ,if Boston would be willing to swap picks(their Toronto first round pick ) if we win lottery , and add a Chara to mix ? If Hall and Sequin are that close maybe we might see some unexpected action in the direction i have mentioned ? Boston may yet have a good pick of their own first round if they keep losing as well ,to play with !It's an avenue /opportunity for the Oilers worth at least checking out .

Wow. I really can't see the Bruins "throwing in" last years Norris winner in order to move up one spot when the 2 guys at the top are essentially a saw off.

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#65 Matt Henderson
March 18 2010, 02:08PM
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@madjam

So we would give up #1 for #2 + Chara? I dont see Boston giving up their Captain to get whomever goes 1st overall considering most scouts cant decide who, Hall or Seguin, is better than the other. It doesnt make sense that anyone would try to move up from 2nd to 1st if the two picks are relatively just as good as the other.

It makes more sense for 3rd to try to move to 2nd though.

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#66 Pajamah
March 18 2010, 02:08PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Wow. I really can't see the Bruins "throwing in" last years Norris winner in order to move up one spot when the 2 guys at the top are essentially a saw off.

~So.....you're saying Zdeno Chara and Patrice Bergeron?~

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#67 Hunter5
March 18 2010, 02:10PM
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I dont think you can go wrong with eiteher, Oil will be in good shape in future years. If it was me, my pick is Seguin. He's only played 2 years of Junior. Some quotes are coming out that he has Yzerman like qualities. Gregor points out his 34 goals 5 on 5, (Very Significant). He can play ALL 3 forward positions. I think these qualities makes his ceiling is a little higher. Hall has huge upside as well, he's as fast as hell. The kid is scary explosive. Like I said you can't go wrong with either player but it will be interesting come June.

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#68 Mills
March 18 2010, 02:21PM
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@ Gregor

I'd put Gonchar as an elite defender over Jovanovski. He's got 200 more points in about the same amount of games.

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#69 Crash
March 18 2010, 02:32PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

I'm a fan of Seguins 5 on 5 production, but personally I'd stick with the guy with the longer track record.

Also, I think I'd puke if we traded down and went with Fowler. The Bow/Nash looks to be a great example I could seen Hall/Fowler having very similar production to these two.

You're not going to believe this but I'm in total agreement with you...

One thing that always drives me nuts around here is how everyone gets caught up in evaluating a player whether it be a prospect or a current player on the roster based on what is happening during that ONE season.

Seguin may be having a better season this season 5 on 5 but that doesn't mean that next season it will be the same.

So yes I'm for the guy who has the consistent track record rather than taking the guy with one good season under his belt. Not to mention that Hall has been described as the more dynamic player who works the corners, drives the net is difficult to knock off the puck and skates like the wind. All attributes needed for success at the NHL level. Even Tyler Seguin's coach says Hall will likely be better off the get go but figures Seguin will close the gap.

And I'm in agreement I too will puke if we trade down and pass up Hall or Seguin for Fowler.

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#70 Jonathan Willis
March 18 2010, 02:36PM
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Completely agree that trading down for Fowler would be a mistake.

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#73 Matt Henderson
March 18 2010, 02:47PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

YOu keep saying it is hard to find an elite D-man. Which is true. But considering how many have tried in the top-five and they haven't worked out, why do it when you have two forwards who are projected to be better?

There is no guarantee Fowler will be an elite D-man. There are very few taken in the top-five who turn into franshise defenders was my point.

A point that I 100% agree with.

In an argument with Crash from a different thread, my point was that it is easier to get high end forwards than high end defensemen. The draft history supports that.

EDIT: I will re-iterate that I do not want the Oilers to Select Cam Fowler unless somehow they magically acquire the 3rd pick on top of their own 1st/2nd overall. Seguin or Hall all the way.

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#74 Matty31
March 18 2010, 02:55PM
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Kudos to Nashville for the smoke show ice girl! Hotness x1000

Forget about who we are picking in LA at the draft. The real question is when are the Oilers getting ice girls/dancers??? I truly believe the reason we lost in ’06 was the fact Carolina had cheerleaders/ice girls and we had nuttin but Goggles the ice cleaner out there.

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#75 Ender
March 18 2010, 03:00PM
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Mike Krushelnyski wrote:

In my mind, there hasn't been a more clear-cut example of a player with no other intention than to hurt the other guy in a while. At least some of these high speed, open ice head shots you can somewhat justify as a guy just trying to throw a big hit. In this one, Wisniewski sees Seabrook by the boards, having nothing to do with the puck, realizes "Oh, that's the guy I want to hurt", takes 18 strides and railroads him.

I don't think it's as clear-cut as you make it out to be. It was a vicious hit, there's no question, but after reviewing it in slow motion quite a few times and noting in detail everything that is happening it's hard to define something that Wisniewski is doing that merits suspension. Seabrook is playing the puck. His eyes are on it right up to the last second. A fraction of an instant before the hit, the puck slides right in front of Seabrook, directly under his stick and only a couple of inches away from his skates. It's true that Seabrook didn't actually touch the puck, but I don't know if the NHL expects a checker to make that distinction at high speed or not. The hit itself was devastating in effect but I couldn't define it as dirty. Wisniewski hits with the shoulder; catches Seabrook high on the chest (almost the neck) and follows through on the hit. Wisniewski's foot comes up and there's certainly full extension into the hit, but there's no obvious jumping motion.

There's little doubt that this is a charging call. The hit itself, though, looks like thousands of others just like it. The effect is undoubtedly terrible as Seabrook is woefully unprepared for impact and his head snaps back just perfectly into the glass, but you can't punish someone for their actions only if someone gets hurt. Either the hit is dirty all the time or it isn't, and if that hit is dirty all the time then hockey is going to be left without much hitting.

I don't know if the NHL sanctions suspensions for charging, but it is Seabrook laying on the ice so maybe they do. We'll have to wait and see.

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#76 Crash
March 18 2010, 03:06PM
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@Matt Henderson

LOL, now you are putting words in my mouth...I never said it was easier to draft high end defensemen...I said it was easier to obtain them in trade than it is to obtain high end forwards in trade.

That's why I draft forwards over d-men because I can build my defense core via trade easier than I can by drafting them.

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#77 Matt Henderson
March 18 2010, 03:20PM
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@Crash

i didnt say that you suggested it was easier to draft defensemen either. All you said was that it is easier to acquire them. That means either the draft, trade or free agency.

We both agree that drafting elite defensemen is difficult. That only leaves trading or FA. I will leave Free Agency alone because generally it follows that every team has the equal opportunity to throw wads of Cash at Free Agents.* That leaves the Trade route.

So now your argument that it is easier to get higher end defensemen over high end forwards is based on the overwhelming evidence from trade history, evidence I dont believe exists. We've already ruled out the Draft and Free agency as means of easily acquiring defensemen, so the trades must be so tilted in the defenseman's favour that there can be no mistake. I just dont see it.

*This ignores the age old belief that Edmonton is at a disadvantage in the Free Agent market due to climate concerns

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#78 Crash
March 18 2010, 03:44PM
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Matt Henderson wrote:

i didnt say that you suggested it was easier to draft defensemen either. All you said was that it is easier to acquire them. That means either the draft, trade or free agency.

We both agree that drafting elite defensemen is difficult. That only leaves trading or FA. I will leave Free Agency alone because generally it follows that every team has the equal opportunity to throw wads of Cash at Free Agents.* That leaves the Trade route.

So now your argument that it is easier to get higher end defensemen over high end forwards is based on the overwhelming evidence from trade history, evidence I dont believe exists. We've already ruled out the Draft and Free agency as means of easily acquiring defensemen, so the trades must be so tilted in the defenseman's favour that there can be no mistake. I just dont see it.

*This ignores the age old belief that Edmonton is at a disadvantage in the Free Agent market due to climate concerns

You kind of did suggest that's what I was saying by this statement to Gregor:

In an argument with Crash from a different thread, my point was that it is easier to get high end forwards than high end defensemen. The draft history supports that.

Makes it sound like I'm saying d-mean are easier to draft. In any event...no it isn't now that my arguement is that d-men are easier to trade for, that's what my arguement has been all along...when I said acquire, trading is what I meant.

And I've already provided you with Oiler examples as far as what it has cost them to obtain top d-men or what they have obtained in trading top d-men....so I believe the evidence does exist that it is easier to get the better d-men for less in trade than the better forwards, in general.

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#79 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
March 18 2010, 04:13PM
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@Crash

"And I've already provided you with Oiler examples as far as what it has cost them to obtain top d-men or what they have obtained in trading top d-men....so I believe the evidence does exist that it is easier to get the better d-men for less in trade than the better forwards, in general."

Throwing out Pronger/Vish trades doesn't really prove your point. Danny Heatly and Brad Richards are both high end forwards recently moved for fairly unimpressive returns. It would take a huge study to truly prove which is harder to aquire (if it's even possible)

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#80 madjam
March 18 2010, 04:33PM
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T.Hall younger and better at this stage as evidenced by Sequin not making Junior squad (team Canada ). Like to see us take Hall with first pick , and try a deal to get one or the other of Bruins two picks .

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#81 Matt Henderson
March 18 2010, 04:39PM
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@madjam

Seguin is younger, not by much, and if it was as simple as Team Canada or not then I'm sure there wouldnt be so much debate about who is better.

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#82 RossCreekNation
March 18 2010, 09:12PM
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Whoa, whoa, whoa... at no point did I say "I would take Cam Fowler". In skimming the comments, I think that is what was insinuated, and perhaps even later discredited. In any case, I've already stated that I like Seguin... and that that is based on seeing very little of either Hall/Seguin, mostly what I've read and believe. Both picks should be good, though (I think that much like last year's Tavares talk, I'm getting sick of Hall - I liked Duchesne last year).

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#83 Matt Henderson
March 18 2010, 09:15PM
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@RossCreekNation

I got your back on this one, cleared both our names I think.

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#84 RossCreekNation
March 18 2010, 09:19PM
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@Matt Henderson

Yeah, I see that, thanks, lol.

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#85 JackBauer
March 19 2010, 11:38AM
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"I expect to read some interesting debates between now and then, but I wonder if some guys just say things to be different. Here’s what Jeff Marek had to say when asked who the Oilers should draft first: Hall, Seguin or Cam Fowler."

Thats hilarious that you say that Jason. Because thats exactly what he does. He likes to play devils advocate on his show all the time. It makes for good debate sometimes, other times its just annoying.

Marek was going on and how the Cooke hit was clean because there isnt a rule for it. Well he asked Guy Carboneau about it Guy said, "How about intent to injure!? Thats in the rulebook"

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#86 Biowolf
March 19 2010, 06:02PM
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Trade O´Sullivan for Ovechkin.

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