The Worst-Case Scenario Survival Handbook

Ryan Lambert
March 02 2010 10:28AM



Assume for a second that Darryl Sutter is done with major transactions before the deadline, that he's looked at the team as it's currently constituted and said, "I can't make this team any better without mortgaging a significant part of the future." It would certainly be understandable.

It's not out of the realm of possibility, is it? What else can he do? Where else can he take the team?

Obviously Darryl Sutter sees this team as a buyer and not a seller, having made at least lateral moves to, I guess, "improve the club." The Phaneuf trade, the Jokinen trade, etc. Designed to get Name Players out of town to both shake up the chemistry in the room and get the team a bit more cap-flexible both today and this summer. Theoretically, these moves were also designed to get the Flames deeper at every position. You can at least see what he's trying to do.

And now assume the Flames miss the playoffs.

At that point you have to look at Darryl Sutter, and just ask one simple question, "Would you like me to help pack your things?"

Missing the playoffs for this team would be a disaster. A complete disaster. This was a team that spent as much as it could without getting into another jam like it did last season. It's one that came into the season with seven players making at least $4 million against the salary cap, relying heavily on production that never came. And it's one that traded away two of those players for the promise of breathing room up to and on July 1, but emerged with nothing to show for it.

It's not so much that Sutter's personnel moves have been bad, per se. Moving Phaneuf was probably something that had to be done, and moving Jokinen was a necessity. It's the moves that have been made after it. Rene Bourque was re-signed for a reasonable rate but six years is a lot to gamble on a guy with an injury rap sheet as long as Zdeno Chara's stick. Matt Stajan also got good money for more years than seemed necessary.

And what that basically means is that Sutter thinks the Flames are set on offense next season. There's literally almost nothing he can do with it. And here's where we stand on the depth chart: Iginla, Langkow, Bourque, Stajan, Hagman, Kotalik. That's not the top-six of a team looking to make any noise next season. Is that really all $24.33 million buys you these days?

And maybe things are better at the back. What's that? Sutter invested $14.3 million in Bouwmeester, Regehr and Sarich? Great. N

A total of $38.63 million in nine players, only two or three of which are what you'd consider top-end talent. It's only like $4.3 million per player on average. That's not counting another $5.83 that an aging goaltender with more submediocre seasons than good in the last five years.

So you get all that PLUS! no first-round draft pick this season, a bit of a mess when it comes to re-signing the team's pending free agents and a club positively LITTERED with no-trade clauses, which Sutter gives out like mediocre candy on Halloween. Not that there's any good way to look it up, but off the top of my head, I know Iginla, Regehr, Bouwmeester, Kiprusoff, Hagman, Kotalik, Stajan and Bourque will all have at least some sort of ability to deny a trade.

Editorial comment: Are you serious, Darryl? EIGHT of them?! Over a third of the team can't be moved if they don't want to be? It'd be one thing if Sutter were trying to keep together a team like the Blackhawks, and didn't want Toews and Kane and Seabrook looking elsewhere for a contract. But Sutter's handing out deal-sweetening no-trade clauses to Matt freaking Stajan? Did I fall asleep and wake up in the land of Rand McNally where people wear hats on their feet, hamburgers eat people and Matt Stajan is the kind of player you're worried about losing to the lure of another team?

Look, I get that he wanted some kind of return for the Phaneuf trade, but any trade in which MATT STAJAN is the centerpiece of the return, deemed SO IMPORTANT that the team's GM must bend to his every request in hopes of keeping a soft center who has never scored more than 16 goals or 55 points, is a trade by a lunatic madman hellbent on destroying all happiness in the world.

Originally I was asked to write a what-if "worst-case scenario" post. I realize now that this isn't a worst-case scenario. It's a hold-steady scenario.

Why do I support this team?

 

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Yer ol' buddy Lambert is handsome and great and everyone loves him. Also you can visit his regular blog at The Two-Line Pass or follow him on Twitter. Lucky you!
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#1 Domebeers.com
March 02 2010, 10:36AM
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I almost shut down Domebeers.com when Stajan was resigned. I needed the blanky.

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#2 rubbertrout
March 02 2010, 11:19AM
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Could be worse, you could be an Oiler fan. At least we have draft picks though. Are there really that many NMC's? I know Iggy and Bouwmeester have one but I didn't think the other guys did.

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#3 Robert Cleave
March 02 2010, 11:35AM
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Swap Hagman for Langkow on your NTC/NMC list, TLP.

As per CapGeek, here's the running total:

NMC; Iginla, Regehr, Langkow, Kiprusoff(through 11/12)

NTC; Bouwmeester, Kotalik, Bourque, Stajan

The last two guys show as "modified" when their new deals kick in next season, whatever that word ends up meaning. Kotalik's was reputed to be a modified one as well, in that he could provide a list of teams he wouldn't go to.

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#4 Kent Wilson
March 02 2010, 11:42AM
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Sutter has essentially doubled down, with the bet being on success in the play-offs. If the Flames fail to make the post-season, we could be looking at a house cleaning in the front office.

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#5 Rob in Toronto
March 02 2010, 12:02PM
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I agree with a lot of this, but take exception with the statement that Kipper has had more mediocre seasons than good in the last five years. Despite some slow starts and the occasional off game, I'd say he's been the most consistent Flame over that stretch. Even when he's not outstanding, he's still solid.

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#6 Brent
March 02 2010, 01:55PM
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You voice a lot of concerns, but worst case scenario is a bit of an overreaction, TLP.

First, I don't get too worked up over no trade clauses. More and more players have them these days AND regularly waive them, unless a) their last name rhymes with Shmaberle OR b) they're asked to go to Edmonton. I see a NTC as a commitment to a player as a valued part of an organization. Nothing more, nothing less.

Second, it IS end game time for Darryl Sutter. Playoffs or bust or what have you. But here's what we know about DS. He's shown he's a) willing to commit to players long term, and b) willing to shake up the team when necessary.

Despite these contrary impulses, Sutter has backed out of many corners in his day, so don't count him out. Remember Vandermeer and Primeau? I still don't understand how he pulled off those trades. Perhaps he'll call in some old favour to help him out if he gets stuck.

But the team is, as we speak, in a playoff position. It may take a push to stay there, but that may not be entirely bad for playoff chances either.

Good to see you back to talking about hockey, rather than patriot-baiting.

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#7 RossCreekNation
March 03 2010, 07:31AM
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I don't see Darryl's job being in jeopardy yet. Do you think he really has the 'go-ahead' to sign the Stajan deal and then face being fired a month and a half later? I don't. I think Darryl has the 'go-ahead' to remold and remodel this team (which he has), and IMO he has at least next year yet.

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#8 RossCreekNation
March 03 2010, 02:08PM
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RossCreekNation wrote:

I don't see Darryl's job being in jeopardy yet. Do you think he really has the 'go-ahead' to sign the Stajan deal and then face being fired a month and a half later? I don't. I think Darryl has the 'go-ahead' to remold and remodel this team (which he has), and IMO he has at least next year yet.

Ummm... check that...

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