March 30 2010 05:34PM
Well, this is probably not in the best interests of Flames Nation credibility, but I'll try it anyway. Even though Kent is our resident math expert, I've taken a stab at the whole "Magic Number" idea, as the Calgary Flames enter the final 6 games of the regular season.
If you're not familiar, the Magic Number idea came from baseball. In this case, it combines wins by the teams ahead of Calgary and losses by the Flames to come up with one number. Now, let me preface this with two things. First, I'm an idiot with numbers. Second, this is not iron-clad it's a "most likely" Magic Number scenario. It doesn't take into account some wacky finish where, say, Colorado finishes with 5 shootout losses but Calgary ties with points or something like that.
Then the following math may not apply, as Calgary may own the first tiebreak with the Avs. Come the end of the season, the tiebreaks are as follows, in order of priority…number of wins (LA 42, Colorado 41, Calgary 38), head to head (Calgary beats LA, loses to Colorado).
The numbers from Calgary's perspective they sit with 38 wins and 85 points with 6 games remaining this season. Their best possible scenario is 97 points, if Calgary wins out down the stretch. In terms of wins, Calgary's best case scenario is 44. Lets start with 7th place LA (as it stands PRIOR to a game with the Nashville Predators Tuesday Night).
They have 42 wins and 90 points with 7 games remaining this season (including tonight). Because Calgary owns the second tiebreak on the Kings, the Magic Number for Los Angeles is now 4 games.
- 4 LA wins gets them to 98 points
- 3 LA wins 1 Calgary loss gets LA to 96 but the Flames would only be able to get to 95
- 2 LA wins 2 Calgary losses gets the Kings to 94 points but a possible total of just 93 for the Flames
- 1 LA win 3 Calgary losses gets the Kings to just 92 guaranteed points, but Calgary would be able to get a grand total of 91.
Magic Number: 4
8th place Colorado also owns a Magic Number of 4. The Avs sit with 41 wins and 89 points with 7 games remaining. The Avs can tie Calgary in terms of wins and still make the playoffs, as they also own the head to head tiebreak with the Flames. So Calgary has to have more points than the Avalanche.
Once again, the scenarios:
- Colorado wins 4 gets the Avs to 97 points and 45 wins
- 3 Colorado wins 1 Calgary loss gets the Avs to 95 points and 44 wins (enough to win the tiebreak)
- 2 Colorado wins 2 Calgary losses gets the Avs to 93 points Calgary can get to only 93
- 1 Colorado win 3 Calgary losses sees the Avs finish with at least 91 points while Calgary can get to just 91.
Magic Number: 4
From a cynics standpoint, we could also make the "Elimination Number"…but who wants to be negative? In that event, though, Calgary's Elimination Number would also be 4. Damn, the math makes things seem a whole lot bleaker.