That Troublesome Third Line
Jonathan Willis
August 19 2010 06:50PM
With the departure of Fernando Pisani to Chicago – a departure well covered by Lowetide here and Ben Massey here – the Oilers have one fewer option to plug one of their holes on the third line.
In my opinion, it’s just as well; a Pisani signing would have been more a nod to sentiment than pragmatism. As much as Pisani is a player I loved to see in an Oilers’ uniform, if Steve Tambellini is going to bolster his team’s bottom six, he really ought to be looking at players who could be useful a few years down the road.
Who, exactly?
Before we start looking at a list of free agents, we should establish some criteria. Mine are fairly straight forward. My base assumption is that the scoring stars will be developed from within (some combination of the current Penner/Hemsky/Gagner/Brule/Cogliano group augmented by the rookies) but that the defensive base for the team should be a more veteran group. Ideally, these veterans won’t be in their mid-thirties when the team starts contending, so we can eliminate pretty much anyone over the age of 32 (sorry Pisani, Modin, Halpern, etc.). Additionally, these players should be big, or at least not undersized (sorry, Tim Kennedy) and have some track record of playing in a defensive role.
Here’s my list of possibilities, along with some relevant data. Statistics and salary from 2009-10:
| Player | Team | Age | Salary (MM) | QualComp | QualTeam | ZoneStart | EV PTS/60 | PK TOI/GM | Rel. Corsi |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enver Lisin | NYR | 24 | 0.790 | 8 | 12 | 51.7 | 1.32 | 0:01 | 5.8 |
| Matt Ellis | BUF | 28 | 0.500 | 13 | 13 | 46.7 | 1.22 | 0:08 | 5.7 |
| Raffi Torres | BUF | 28 | 2.250 | 11 | 3 | 52.3 | 1.81 | 0:00 | 2.4 |
| Stephane Veilleux | T.B | 28 | 0.750 | 11 | 13 | 39.4 | 0.7 | 2:03 | 0.1 |
| Matt Hendricks | COL | 29 | 0.500 | 13 | 13 | 44.2 | 1.9 | 1:13 | -2.7 |
| Adam Mair | BUF | 31 | 0.758 | 11 | 12 | 49.8 | 1.26 | 0:04 | 2.2 |
| Ruslan Fedotenko | PIT | 31 | 1.800 | 7 | 12 | 58.3 | 1.4 | 0:09 | -1.8 |
| Aaron Asham | PHI | 32 | 0.640 | 13 | 14 | 51.7 | 2.04 | 0:00 | -0.1 |
Unfortunately, it’s a rather short list; there aren’t that many big, defensively-minded forwards with youth on their side left on the market.
At this point in his career, Enver Lisin isn’t a defensive specialist – he’s a brilliant skater (arguably the fastest from his draft class) with a decent level of talent, but he’s got some significant deficiencies. He’s not an overly physical player, and he still has some defensive deficiencies to work out. The numbers look good, but I don’t think it’s an ideal fit (not that I’d oppose taking a flyer on him).
Three Buffalo Sabres make the list. I’m not a big fan of Adam Mair, who at 31 has yet to show he can stick his head above the fourth line and survive. Raffi Torres has played in Edmonton before and thus we’re all familiar with him (QualComp and QualTeam ranks are from his time in Columbus, where he spent most of the season) and know what he brings. If we view him as a third-line winger there are some definite things in his favour – grit and energy, some goal-scoring – and I think his talent is a nice fit for the Oilers. What does worry me is the off-ice rumours we’ve all heard, and whether he’s worth signing depends on what he’s like off the ice. Finally, Matt Ellis is another guy I’d be interested in – possibly on a two-way deal – and he might provide another option along with Colin Fraser.
Ruslan Fedotenko and Aaron Asham are both on the older side of the ledger, and neither really fits the shutdown role for me; Fedotenko’s coming off an awful year where he was asked to contribute offence and Asham’s an energy guy who I think would be miscast as a defensive ace.
Matt Hendricks is a late-blooming forward who I’d be willing to look at on a two-way deal, but honestly I don’t think he’s all that far ahead of a guy like Liam Reddox. He does have some big league penalty-killing experience and he’s put up good AHL numbers, but I’d be worried projecting him above the fourth line.
That leaves Stephane Veilleux. I’ve always had a soft spot for Veilleux, who did well in a checking role for the Minnesota Wild, but he’s coming off a miserable offensive season and he had surgery this summer. I’d like to see the Oilers sign Veilleux since he brings a lot of things they need – energy, defensive acumen, penalty-killing experience, but again this isn’t a deal I feel strongly about.
The full list of free agents is available from capgeek.com. I don’t see anyone I’m particularly bullish on, but what does everybody else think?
Nice post JW,
Enver Lisin isn't exactly a household name like some of the other guys you have listed there, but I do think his speed would fit in nicely with the Oilers down the line.
As far as being a dependable 3rd line guy now (or ever, for that matter) is the million dollar question.
I do think a fast, 24 year old depth player is always worth the gamble. A signing like this could turn out to make Stevey-T look like a genius.
Build from within this year, take our lumps, and then look at the free agent list next year.
I think Vande Velde may make the team this year, and if that is the case he gets some valuable experience in a year when we can afford to give some icetime and allow some mistakes.
pass on all these players 100%. im inventing my own stat called NIPLES (Non-Impact Player Legitimized [by] Extraneous Stats).
all of these are on that list
JW - your links for 'here' and 'here' in your first few sentences are not working.
edit: fixed now - btw, nice article. A lot of us have argued that the Oil should go out and get a player who could fill that roll. Its nice to have an analysis of who is actually out there on the free market.
I'd like Torres back. He's older now and one would have to assume, more mature. He fits the role of third line winger nicely with his proven skill set. We wouldn't all be waiting for that 30 goal scorer to emerge after his one 28 goal season because we now know that was an anomaly. Therefore, there would be less pressure on him and less disappointment from us as fans. Familiarity is comfort.
@ bookie:
Thanks, I'll fix it.
If they don't pick up a "defensive specialist" does that suggest they see Renney using Horcoff in that spot or that they are eyeing a lotto pick? ...or both?
I don't see with what we have , running a top 6, bottom 6 type of team down the line to begin with . I see a top 9 , bottom three checking line with excess forwards ( two way competent ) filling the additional role of defensive forwards when deemed necessary . I am more inclined to the idea we will be running a top 9 offensive team , as we are built more for that type of team already !
@madjam
Question: why the space before the punctuation? Not trying to give you a hard time here, just curious.
I can't see this (for the Oil), but Peter Adler has Tomas Fleischmann to Edmonton or Vancouver for Souray or Bieksa. How?
http://communities.canada.com/edmontonjournal/blogs/hockey/archive/2010/08/19/washington-capitals-in-talks-to-move-fleischmann-for-souray-or-bieksa.aspx
@RossCreekNation
Fleischmann sounds like a top-6 guy, he doesn't fill the 3rd line need. Maybe he'd have some Czech chemistry with Hemsky? Although they've never played together that I'm aware of.
Still any warm body is better than Sheldon "Depreciating-Asset-Locker-Room-Poison" Souray.
The name that stands out for me on the list is Ryan Johnson he would be a good fit to fill the defensive/penalty kill void here.
Ive been quietly hoping the MIGHTY OIL will sign torres, off ice rumors aside i always thought he played pretty good in his 1st tour. Raffi always seemed to deliver that big open ice hit that got the momentum back in favor of the oilers during the game,the biggest was in '06 against the red wings when he layed out a player i cant remember off hand but that IMO changed the series. The Oilers sure could use a game changer like that, may not be in points but for a heavy hitter like that why the hell not. Yes i am aware we already have the likes of McIntyre & Huggy Bear who could play the 3rd line that can make anyone on the opposing team blow snot bubbles when hit, Torres just has a little better skating than them
Torres? Keep him away from the young guys and the oilers dressing room,that's all we need,his off ice problems and attitude is enough of a problem.
There was some chatter about Fleischmann-Souray a week or so ago. If we could package it around a Cogs-Fleischmann swap and send Souray along for a pick (or injury-conditional pick?), I think both sides win... Well, the Caps actually win, but we cut our losses and hope the crisp winter air agrees with the Czech. And run out our 3D as 1D.
I still think WAS signs Mitchell and puts these rumours to bed.
Re: Oilers defensive forward
Tambi's evaluation period will extend to training camp, whereupon an Asham (or a Morrison or someone else I will despise in the role) will be invited and signed. This is less of a prediction and more of an overwhelming dread.
I've said it before, Jeff Halpern (if healthy) is a name I'd look at as a solid veteran d-presence.
Curious... Jere Lehtinen still have some game as a 3rd line defensive specialist, even if an overpay? Him with Paajarvi on a 3rd line might create a decent two-way game.
Need a new Captain, how bout Bill Guerin :)
I think on that list, I'd probably consider Mair and Asham the most. I'll also add in Ryan Johnson, even though he's been tainted by the Canucks and has had his share of injuries. Also would consider Steve Begin.
Hmm. Johnson might be a bit lower on my list though, just because our team doesn't need any more guys who've had injury problems. But if not for that, he'd bring a lot of what we need.
What were the rumours about raffi?
Does anyone know if owen nolan kills penalties?
I'd love to have Ryan Johnson on the Oilers.
I don't see why we have to be concerned with signing a defensive player that will be here for the long haul until we are a contender. I think there is advantage in signing an older guy to a 1-2 year contract which will provide us with experience, then replace him with someone else who is also defensive-minded at the end of his contract. I haven't seen Jere Lehtinen or Wayne Primeau play in a few years so I can't really speak for them. But why not somebody like them?
How about these guys who will be UFA's after this season. All in their 20's. All solid 3rd/4th line guys that can grow with the rest of our young core. Voros, Eager, Boyd Gordon, Laich, Glencross.
Interesting idea. We'd have to pay a premium but they are clearly a better option.
We would certainly have to be pay more than league minimum for any of those guys but I agree its a better option than guys like Mair, Asham etc. After this year both JFJ and Storts are RFA's, I think we need to evaluate whether they are the role plays we move forward with or if we target others like the guys I mentioned.
JW,
I mentioned it over at lowetide's site but I would be interested in your take on NYI - Richard Park.
Yes he is not the biggest guy but 51% FO, 3 ish minutes a night PK time, lived in the defensive end. But most measures on a pretty poor team this guy looks like he actually swims. By generic counting stats and due to size he is not going to be over-priced.
The problem with both Halpern and Johnson is age - neither guy is likely to be a contributer once the team is ready to contend. Additionally, Johnson's never handled third-line duties despite being 34.
I like Park, but I don't think he's a fit for the Oilers because of his size and age.
Torres is the best fit, but it depends on the price. If he's going to be a problem in the room with his old habit then I don't want him anywhere near the young impressionable kids.
Torres.....been there, done that. Seems some people have forgotten. Remember Raffi having a great game, and then coasting and looking brain dead for the next 10-15 games? If someone is brought in, they better hustle and put in an effort game in and out. That is what I want the kids to see and learn. I do not want Raffi anywhere near the kids, on or off the ice.
@ Rogue:
Nah, it's just that Torres was miscast as a scorer. As a checker, he was remarkably effective towards the end of his time in Edmonton.
@Jonathan Willis
No doubt Raffi can hit and check. But his reputation as an off ice distraction is well deserved. I doubt tambo will allow this guy around our young core.
There always seems to be a handful of those 3rd/4th line checker types each off-season, so I don't think it's quite that important that we sign someone who will be here for when we're ready to compete. If we're going that route, then maybe there is someone in the system that we have to fill that role. But anyways, I don't mind an older player so much, if it's the right guy.
I know that this is probably preposterous, but still consider:
Curtis Glencross may be available! 1. The Flameouts are in Cap hell. 2. They have too many Left wingers. 3. Glencross' contract expires next year.
What do you guys think? Is Lowe a big enough man to actually consider this deal after he let GlenX walk away?
Don't see the urgency of spending valuable cap dollars for an impact 3rd liner while rebuilding.
We have Jones and Fraser already, who could move up and play some of the tough minutes, and we'd just need a winger.
My vote would be for Mair. He's a bit of a tough customer and would be a very good checking forward if not used at center.
And as for the 4th line, why not rotate in kids to get them small amounts of ice time with the big club as a reward for playing well in OKC?
We're not trying to make the playoff this year, right?
@russ99 We're not trying to make the playoffs this year, right?
...exactly...rebuild it and that 3rd line impact player will come...our bottom six may define how good our top six are...we still DO need to suck a bit,we will be fine with who we have, bring back moves need not happen,so please,no Torres...yikes! at 2 point two five per? stinky! no value no thankyou!
waiting for Glencross? worth it? yes period
As in... "I'd take Torres, but I don't like the look of his NIPLES"?
@ Death Metal Nightmare:
Bang on! All 20 players should be stars! Kariya and Kovalchuk OR BUST!
I have a tough time accepting that "we're not trying to make the playoffs this year". I don't think that we should go into the playoffs with the thought that we don't want to make the playoffs.. rebuild or not. We've got a good prospect pool now. I don't think they should expect to be a high ranked team or one that will be a playoff contender, no, but they should still add pieces (if they're cheap enough, which defensive specialists would be) to give us a reasonable chance of making the playoffs this year.
Creating a winning attitude/environment and getting these guys some playoff experience could go a long way. Rebuild doesn't always mean suck as bad as you can for as long as you can, imho. To me it means recycling out those players you built your team around before that weren't working, and for the most part we've done that. The face of this team has changed a lot, and enough that I think we can give it an honest effort to make the playoffs
Is that what we are looking for someone to stick around? I would think with going after Nidermayer that this isn't the plan. We have guys within the system that could play that role once this team is ready to contend. I just think it's more about getting someone now to help things go a little bit more smoothly over the next year or two.
Maybe it's a wait and see approach? There are a lot of "ifs" with this team and if the majority of those "ifs" go in our favour maybe come x-mas Tambo looks at making some little changes to give us that extra push?
I still think we should get someone now to help us, but I do think that some decisions won't be made until ST sees what he actually has come game time.
nah dude, they all dont have to be stars, have a little more respect for the readers knowledge, but the guys youre picking out as your CORSI BRO's are seriously just dudes who are leakers on mediocre/bad teams. theyre not effective third liners and most are 4th liners or AHLers/potential Euro-sucks.
if all you do is look at dudes CORSI stats and behindthenet for your "projected awesomeness" for a third line, youd end up with a bunch of Horcoff-ites who look more at stats than what these guys actually accomplish on the ice.
youd seriously put any of those guys on a quality teams third line? i get that youre filling out the Oilers lineup, but even then, theyre not worth investing money into.
Asham was affective with Giroux and JVD. Feds was cool in like 2004 and hanging with Malkin, and last year he blew.
Torres? dudes a complete joke. we seen it. blind, no-look passes facing the boards on breakouts multiple times. couple big hits, big whoop.
didnt you do a few posts like this in the past of guys who came out to be useless and/or out of the league based on these sort of CORSI stats?
never gets old i guess. whatever rationalizes your argument.
more NIPLES please. just load up the spreadsheet of turd stats to "prove" it.
SINK OR SWIM,OUT ON A LIMB! I don't believe Katz will put up with another losing team last year with a team of fringe players as has been assembled so far minus the rookies of course .
I believe Katz will not allow this team to flounder like last year beyond Xmas, or Lowe and Tams could both be gone by then. I doubt Katz will give them an entire year to get this team on the right track if massive improvement is not made . They are already down to their third string coach for starters (Renney ).
Katz handed upper management an olive branch allowing them to start the rebuild , but i doubt he is expecting anything less than immediate results upwards !
So i forsee, that only the rookies can make that sort of difference, and i don't see either Lowe or Tams past Xmas if they go and try and win with a fringe lineup . Not much quality added to base , so it's sink and swim with the rookies .
Katz wants results this season , not a repeat of last years basement plunge . We are out to win this season not 4-5 years down the road , as that should be unacceptable to fans and even moreso to Katz i would think . I don't believe he'll put up with upper management that long of a process to begin with .
@ Death Metal Nightmare:
A couple of those players are guys who *might* pan out, if given an opportunity.
The problem is that the Oilers roster right now doesn't have any real third line guys on the third line - and aside from Torres, there isn't anyone with that track record available as a free agent. But as it stands we might see a Jones/Fraser/Stortini third line, and none of htose guys has ever played in that role.
Lisin's young enough he could become more valuable, and Veilleux's played that role in Minnesota. I'm not wild about either, but I'd prefer adding a couple of more options rather than betting it all on Jones/Fraser and expecting them to carry someone besides.
@ Death Metal Nightmare
Don't worry... the Oilers are already ignoring things like Corsi when it comes to their roster decisions.
Hence the reason guys like JFJ and Strudwick have a chance to play significant minutes on this team.
We can sign young checking guys next yr. We need experienced checking players this yr to take some load of the younger kids.
SIGN....OWEN NOLAN....he can teach the kids a few things and is good for a checking role
Problem with that, he probably doesn't want to come to a rebuilding team.
I would love to have Glencross back! I am still bitter they let him walk in the first place! I think he'd be exactly the kind of player who could find chemistry with Cogliano on the third line.
I think oolers need to take one step at a time and they should sign anybody they can for the role this yr, just to take load of the young kids. One yr deal only and next summer look to fill this hole with younger players
Not sure why I'm bothering but Death Metal honestly?
When sorting through the UFA players still out there, how can looking at stuff like:
Seeing how much a guy started at his own end of the ice
Seeing the differential between shots directed at the opposing teams net compared to his own net while a guy is on the ice.
Taking that one step further and relating that to how he did compared to that specific team as a whole, with regards to shots.
Seeing point-wise how a player measures up taking ice time into consideration and removing powerplay points from the equation
Getting a relative idea of what kind of opposition he was facing versus what kind of support he was playing with.
It's impossible to sit and watch every single NHL'er play. Looking at players through this lens makes a hell of a lot more sense than this:
Goal, Assists, +/- combined with yeah I remember watching this guy play a few shifts last year.
I had to re-read your post 3 times looking for any hint of sarcasm. I didn't detect any so I have to say you couldn't be more wrong if you tried...unless you think "long haul" means "three months".
Katz, Feb 11 2010: "We are in this for the long haul and over the long haul I really like what I see. We have a great young core with a lot more talent coming along."
Katz, Feb 11 2010: "there's no question that draft and development are absolutely a focus under our ownership."
Katz, Feb 11 2010: "Tamby has the absolute green light to do whatever he needs to do to rebuild the hockey club."
Tambellini, April 14 2010: "There are no quick fixes. I'm not going to be the person to tell you there's a quick fix."
Jonathan: Excluding the players from the list you have provided, can you now show us a similar list of guys who are 32+, i.e., those with decent PK stats that we can sign on 1 or 2 years deals on the cheap?
I agree with what one of the other posters said: the Oilers are developing their 3rd line talent in the AHL and we just need a stop gap until the kids are ready to jump into the fray. Two years from now.
As a side note JW:
THanks for all the years of reading.
It's too bad you were not on here for the first couple years of the Penner deal so you could at least reference back to what the saw him goods obviously were not seeing until his counting numbers came up last season!
I'm still in the ST is treading on shaky ground territory as if I had my wish:
1. Pouliot would have been signed and slotted as my 3/4 centre along with brodziak.
2. Cogliano would not have taken a single shift as a center last year and would be dealt if he couldn't get past the fact that he very well could have a career as a top 6 WINGER.
I think we had the bodies to fill these bottom 6 center roles we just pissed them away
Cheers.
@ubermiguel
Yeah they are starting to run like somewhat unheadless chickens for sure.
Katz pooring money into the OKC franchise is going to pay off in the long run, if they don't knee jerk away from it once the pro team starts rounding the corner.
Since mismanaging this team to a last place finish (so for the last 6 months). The plan appears to be draft and develop. But hey, maybe a team like the rangers wins the cup next year then instead of following the Detroit, I mean Chicago model we'll go back to throwing money at free agency.
The problem is for us to have a chance this year at making the playoffs a whole lot of things need to break right, given the make-up of our current roster. Add to that the realization the management is prepared to let it sink to pick up another pick if it doesn't makes it pretty hard to get excited.
So, we're going to burn another year off two great value contracts (Penner and Hemsky), likely burn a year off all our top prospects ELC's for a riveting 8th-15th place finish...
I think around 10-12th is likely but the dive is dependant on how many shiny red buttons tamblowe presses at the deadline. We are in the weakest division in the West now. Aside from Vancouver and possibly the Lames for some periods of the season (Tanguay + Oli just might be enough to distribute some offence to squeak the extra goal in). There should be a whole lot of coin flips vs the Wild and the Avs.
Well said... Immediate results and rebuild do not go hand in hand. I think Katz will be be pretty happy about the product he sees this year - even if we still remain close to the basement. His GM has made cap room and roster space for some rookies and has done well in changing the attitude in the dressing room (clearing out Nilson, Moreau and O'Sullivan)... He'll still have some gaps to address with our goalie situation and lack of depth; but to pull out the old cliche, "Rome wasn't built in a day". If we continue to avoid stupid contracts like Horcoff's and continue to pick well in the draft, we're looking at a playoff team two to three years down the road...
When you look at our current depth chart - wouldn't our third line look something like Horcoff centring Jacques and Eberle/MPS? Our top six and bottom three are already set... Top six forwards are Hall, Penner, Hemsky, Gagner, Brulet and Eberle (or MPS) and our bottom three are Fraser/Stortini/Cogliano?? Not sure why'd we want to go out and look at the free agency market to begin with. We'll be overpaying guys to come here until we can pull out a winner.