The Forwards
Jonathan Willis
August 21 2010 01:44PM
Over at his other place, Lowetide has been spending the last few weeks going through the Oilers’ forwards and establishing benchmarks for the performance of each of them. He does it every summer, and then reviews those projections throughout the year. Because his estimates are conservative, as a rule they get argued with when they’re made and then start looking better and better as the season goes on.
His final list of the Oilers forwards went up today, and it’s a roster that screams one thing: this is another rebuilding year.
It’s way, way too early to be putting together line combinations, but it’s a fun exercise and makes it easier to picture where everybody might fit in. The following is how I’d do it, based on today’s roster and today’s assumptions, but it’s intended as a rough outline to give us an idea of what we’re looking at rather than an actual plan:
- Hall – Horcoff – Hemsky
- Penner – Gagner – Brule
- Paajarvi/Eberle – Fraser – Jones
- Jacques – Cogliano - Stortini
In this scenario, Steve MacIntyre and one of Omark, O’Marra, Giroux would serve as the extras, with the loser of the battle between Eberle and Paajarvi getting sent to the minors for lots of minutes (and tagged as the likely first call-up). There are other scenarios possible; for example, one could envision Hemsky, Penner and Gagner as a power-vs.power line, with Horcoff, Fraser and Jones becoming a shutdown trio and with a sheltered kids line in between centered by Brule or Cogliano. Like I said, it’s less about the actual lines than getting a better idea of what this group is going to look like next year.
It isn’t a contending team. Neither Colin Fraser nor Ryan Jones has a track record above the fourth line (although both performed well in that role), the kids are all question marks, Horcoff and Cogliano are coming off awful seasons, Brule’s coming off his first good season, and guys like Jacques, O’Marra and MacIntyre aren’t likely to outperform NHL competition.
And that’s just fine. Chalk me up as a fan of rebuilding; another bad year and another good pick are things I can get behind. The important thing is to have the title of Lowetide’s series: reasonable expectations. It’s a great year to watch the kids for improvements, enjoy the debuts of some fantastic rookies, and see whether guys getting slotted in new roles can perform. If the team surprises and starts winning games, it’s all gravy.
like i said, we'll get the last laugh when renney has him at or near the top of toi as well.
Let him play the most minutes. I dont care. As long as he's doing it without Hemsky to his right.
If Horc playing more minutes than any other forward translates into another lottery pick then that's even better.
Rebuild.
I would put the lines as such:
Hemsky-Gagner-Penner
Hall-Eberle-Paajarvi
Brule- Horcoff – Cogliano
Jones/(Jacques)-Fraser -Stortini
Hall-Penner-Hemsky
Paajarvi-Gagner-Brule
Comrie-Horcoff-[Souray & Cogliano]
Jones-Fraser-Stortini
The Article and expecially the comments were awesome to read. JW and Travis....that was quite the destruction haha
Wow.
Horcoff's TOI for the last 25 games of the season was 19:34.
His TOI for the season was 19:25. That means he actually played more the last 25 games than he did the first 52.
As for Horcoff "finally starting to produce", well yeah. As bad as Ethan Moreau is he's still an upgrade on JFJ. Not only that but Horcoff's % got a lot better too.
For a long time, the ESSV% when Horcoff was on the ice was under .860 (that's bad for the 80's). The last 25 games it was around .920.
The teams shooting % while he was on the ice was about 6% for most of the year and that bumped up almost a full percentage the last 25 games.
If you want to know what the difference was between the first 52 and the last 25, it wasn't ice time. Horcoff was still getting the most. A lot of it had to do with the SV% behind him getting significantly better and the SH% of his teammates getting better.
And can we please try and remember who the #1C was in 2005-06? And then look at the rest of the roster and tell me where the problem is now compared to then.
@dawgbone
Thanks for waiting for this article to make it off the main page before making irrelevent points.
1) I have never once made a single point about Horcoff's ice time. That was someone else who was under the impression that playing the most made you the 1st line centre.
I have only ever stated that he should not be playing on the top line, in an offensive role. He doesnt belong there. He was moved away from that role and he benefitted from it greatly.
The guy played better on a line with a defined role and linemates that understood their role just as well as Horc did.
2) While you're living in the past regarding Horcoff maybe you could see if his 05/06 shoulder is lying around somewhere. You know, the one that hadnt yet required surgical repair?
You bring up who was the #1C in 2005-06 like it's at all relevant. You might as well have asked who the #1C was in the 87-88 season. It doesnt matter because this will be the 2010-11 season.
And for christ-sakes, stop bringing up TOI like it matters in the discussion of who his linemates should be.