The Forwards

Jonathan Willis
August 21 2010 01:44PM

TORONTO - MARCH 7:  Ales Hemsky #83 of the Edmonton Oilers skates against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the game at Air Canada Centre on March 7, 2009 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Dave Sandford/Getty Images)

Over at his other place, Lowetide has been spending the last few weeks going through the Oilers’ forwards and establishing benchmarks for the performance of each of them. He does it every summer, and then reviews those projections throughout the year. Because his estimates are conservative, as a rule they get argued with when they’re made and then start looking better and better as the season goes on.

His final list of the Oilers forwards went up today, and it’s a roster that screams one thing: this is another rebuilding year.

It’s way, way too early to be putting together line combinations, but it’s a fun exercise and makes it easier to picture where everybody might fit in. The following is how I’d do it, based on today’s roster and today’s assumptions, but it’s intended as a rough outline to give us an idea of what we’re looking at rather than an actual plan:

  • Hall – Horcoff – Hemsky
  • Penner – Gagner – Brule
  • Paajarvi/Eberle – Fraser – Jones
  • Jacques – Cogliano - Stortini

In this scenario, Steve MacIntyre and one of Omark, O’Marra, Giroux would serve as the extras, with the loser of the battle between Eberle and Paajarvi getting sent to the minors for lots of minutes (and tagged as the likely first call-up). There are other scenarios possible; for example, one could envision Hemsky, Penner and Gagner as a power-vs.power line, with Horcoff, Fraser and Jones becoming a shutdown trio and with a sheltered kids line in between centered by Brule or Cogliano. Like I said, it’s less about the actual lines than getting a better idea of what this group is going to look like next year.

It isn’t a contending team. Neither Colin Fraser nor Ryan Jones has a track record above the fourth line (although both performed well in that role), the kids are all question marks, Horcoff and Cogliano are coming off awful seasons, Brule’s coming off his first good season, and guys like Jacques, O’Marra and MacIntyre aren’t likely to outperform NHL competition.

And that’s just fine. Chalk me up as a fan of rebuilding; another bad year and another good pick are things I can get behind. The important thing is to have the title of Lowetide’s series: reasonable expectations. It’s a great year to watch the kids for improvements, enjoy the debuts of some fantastic rookies, and see whether guys getting slotted in new roles can perform. If the team surprises and starts winning games, it’s all gravy.

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Jonathan Willis covers hockey for the Nation Network. He also currently writes for the Edmonton Journal's Cult of Hockey, Grantland, and Hockey Prospectus. His work has appeared at theScore, ESPN and Puck Daddy. He started writing professionally in 2008 as the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue. Contact him at jonathan (dot) willis (at) live (dot) ca; he's also on Twitter at http://twitter.com/JonathanWillis
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Reply #51 Travis Dakin August 22 2010, 12:16AM
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@fuck off

Um... no sh!t? Dude, since you seem to be demonstrating the same lack of reading comprehension skills as OilBaron, I will spell it out very simply for you.

I WAS TEASING HIM ABOUT A LATE COMEBACK!!! Obviously I don't expect him to sit around waiting for a reply. So many people here seem to be missing the "think before you say (or write) something that makes you look like an idiot" gene. It's awesome.

p.s. I just noticed your profile tagline: "Think before you type monkey"

That's kickass hypocrisy right there baby!

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Reply #52 Travis Dakin August 22 2010, 12:17AM
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David S wrote:

Nice to see you around these parts again Travis.

Season is coming soon! I'm well refreshed and ready to party.

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Reply #53 fuck off August 22 2010, 12:20AM
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Travis Dakin wrote:

Um... no sh!t? Dude, since you seem to be demonstrating the same lack of reading comprehension skills as OilBaron, I will spell it out very simply for you.

I WAS TEASING HIM ABOUT A LATE COMEBACK!!! Obviously I don't expect him to sit around waiting for a reply. So many people here seem to be missing the "think before you say (or write) something that makes you look like an idiot" gene. It's awesome.

p.s. I just noticed your profile tagline: "Think before you type monkey"

That's kickass hypocrisy right there baby!

You should look in a mirror every once in a week.

Regardless of how much you might attempt to defend your earlier statement; the point still stands that even if you were trying to be teasing or funny it FAILED and thus we rail on you for, well, the obvious.

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Reply #54 Travis Dakin August 22 2010, 12:22AM
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fuck off wrote:

You should look in a mirror every once in a week.

Regardless of how much you might attempt to defend your earlier statement; the point still stands that even if you were trying to be teasing or funny it FAILED and thus we rail on you for, well, the obvious.

Nope, I laughed and therefore it worked.

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Reply #55 fuck off August 22 2010, 12:25AM
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Travis Dakin wrote:

Nope, I laughed and therefore it worked.

Every idiot laughs at their own jokes.

Comedians on the other hand have OTHER people laugh at their jokes.

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Reply #56 Travis Dakin August 22 2010, 12:28AM
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fuck off wrote:

Every idiot laughs at their own jokes.

Comedians on the other hand have OTHER people laugh at their jokes.

I'm no comedian, just clearly blessed with far more awesome than you. Can you feel it? You can go check out some of the archives of www.jeanshortsandbaggedmilk.com (That'll be five bucks for the plug JS) if you'd like to see a record of what people think of my humour.

And for the record, what does "you should take a look in the mirror every once in a week" mean? I mean, I understand each word but, putting them together in that way just makes a mockery of that half-assed attempt at eloquence you made in post #48

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Reply #57 Shane August 22 2010, 01:26AM
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Wow, it's gonna be a long rebuild if this sh!t keeps up... I mean aren't we all on the same team here?!?

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Reply #58 Bucknuck August 22 2010, 03:28AM
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You get props for that one. I used to enjoy reading the posts but having to scroll through ignorant ones by people who don't have a friggin clue is getting to me.

There are a handful of folks railroading what used to be good positive discussion. Any personal barb thrown directly at the people paid to write on this site should result in a ban. JW obviously tried the shame method, but it didn't make a dent.

Travis Dakin it is good to see you back on here. Your comments have been missed.

And for the record, the Renneyblender is going to be FUN to watch this year. i can't wait to see who on this team has chemistry with whom. I can't help but want to see Cogs flying between MPS and Hall for at least a few shifts. It might not make too much sense when you look at it from a lot of angles, but those boys can fly so who knows!

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Reply #59 David S August 22 2010, 03:34AM
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Travis Dakin wrote:

I'm no comedian, just clearly blessed with far more awesome than you. Can you feel it? You can go check out some of the archives of www.jeanshortsandbaggedmilk.com (That'll be five bucks for the plug JS) if you'd like to see a record of what people think of my humour.

And for the record, what does "you should take a look in the mirror every once in a week" mean? I mean, I understand each word but, putting them together in that way just makes a mockery of that half-assed attempt at eloquence you made in post #48

Travis, I seriously have to buy you a beer. But only if Cory shows up too. Only then will I openly acknowledge the Dakin awesomeness.

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Reply #60 David S August 22 2010, 03:49AM
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@ Travis

http://www.allamericanblogger.com/wp-content/uploads/OrsonWellesClap.gif

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Reply #61 Travis Dakin August 22 2010, 06:11AM
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David S wrote:

Travis, I seriously have to buy you a beer. But only if Cory shows up too. Only then will I openly acknowledge the Dakin awesomeness.

Done and Done. We were just recently discussing which games we will be able to attend this year. We will definitely have to drink beers.

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Reply #62 @NateInEdmonton August 22 2010, 07:11AM
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@ Travis Dakin & mxke,

Only losers win online fights...

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Reply #63 pelhem grenville August 22 2010, 07:23AM
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@natesanahate...let's not stir the pot with the L-word...methinks there are no losers here...y'know online fights'll happen...they're over soon enough, we discuss and love again soon enough

>>>now

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Reply #64 pelhem grenville August 22 2010, 07:26AM
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dropped this part

>>>now

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Reply #65 pelhem grenville August 22 2010, 07:30AM
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mom really is there...guess i'm b-bye

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Reply #66 Travis Dakin August 22 2010, 08:42AM
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@NateInEdmonton wrote:

@ Travis Dakin & mxke,

Only losers win online fights...

Then you must be one hell of a winner since you clearly lost that match you had with Lowetide and Brownlee a couple of weeks ago.*

Nate SANS Hate indeed. HAHA

*I'm just teasing you. I'm not fighting with anybody. I was teasing and having fun.

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Reply #67 Woodguy August 22 2010, 09:28AM
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JW,

I think you are trying to create a tougher minutes 3rd line when (as you and everyone with eyes and a brain has said)there simply isn't enough ingredients to create one.

If the roster doesn't change much between Game 1 and now, I wager that Renney will be putting a Horcoff centered line against the toughest comp and a Gagner centered line against 2nd toughs.

Horcoff, Hemsky, Penner and Gagner are going to have 2 of each on the top two tough minute lines, inserting Brule on RW and Hall/MPS on LW.

That leaves a Fraser-Jones-Stortini type for "energy" and gives a super soft minute line of:

MPS/Hall (whoever doesn't cut it in the top two) - Cogs - Eberle.

Renney stated that he wants to start Cogs at center, and I can't see them putting him with the dregs again after he showed something .75pts/gm with Penner. (everyone plays great when Frank Mahovlich is your LW moving the puck the right way all the time)

As shown at the C&B Gagner is trending up in terms of QC and it makes sense to put him in a tougher minute role this year....there simply isn't anyone to take that on, Fraser included.

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Reply #68 traktor August 22 2010, 10:02AM
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Is there ANYTHING Shawn Horcoff could have done last year that would have made willis not penciled 10 as the 1st line center?

I'm starting to believe Horcoff could go -100 with no 10 points on the year and his lackeys would still have his 1st line role reserved.

I think that's what is wrong with his organization - from management to players - it's not what you've done but who you are.

If Horcoff played in a place like NY or Philadelphia he would've already been dealt with.

The problem is where do you put the guy? Even if he's making 1.5 million dollars he doesn't really have a place on the club (surely you don't want a 3rd line center that gets outhit by Robert Nilsson).

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Reply #69 Oilemup August 22 2010, 10:07AM
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If horcoff is on one of the top 2 lines then there is something really wrong. I'm just so ticked off that almost everyone puts him there. Let gagner and brule fill the top to center rolls. Hall gagner hemsky Penner brule eberle Paajarvi horcoff omark Mac Cogs jones

I know eberle is a left winger but we have to many, would be nice to trade pens for a nice dman.

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Reply #70 michael August 22 2010, 10:10AM
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The front end is getting a little crowded. I would not start Jacques in Edmonton based on the fact he is coming off another serious injury and really hasn't earned an NHL spot. O'Marra is AHL stuff unless he can find a way to provide some toughness and can win a few faceoffs. Jones is another AHL guy who remains a fringe NHLer until he proves otherwise. Eberle makes this team even with a broken leg, one eye and three fingers missing. Its his time. The Oilers cannot afford to languish him the minors and turn him into another Rob Shremp.HALL, PSV are also shoe ins. The Oilers sold us hope for most of last season. These three kids are that hope come to fruition. The fans need, want, desire, demand that these kids play now. Not in OKC where it won't matter. I think that when all is said and done Souray comes to camp and will be a pro and suck up the bs and return to form. He'll zip his lip and be the player he thinks he is and what we pay him to be. He'll be welcomed and bygones will be bygones. Just because I argue with my wife doesn't mean I should divorce her. Relationships are about communication. Sure Sheldon beaked off. But now that the air is cleared he and the team can move forward. I still think he is and will be a great asset to this team. Its BULIN who I want to get rid of Stupid sop. Should be paying him in Smirnoff. Can't stand for a millionaire who thinks he has the right to drive his sports car at twice the legal limit while drunker than a skunk. Same reason I can't stand Heatly. Remember Pelle Lindberg? Bulin should grow up and take a serious look at what his priorities in life are.

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Reply #71 traktor August 22 2010, 10:11AM
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Is Burke desperate enough for "help" at center that he would send us Finger for Horcoff?

I would make that trade.

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Reply #72 traktor August 22 2010, 10:13AM
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"I know eberle is a left winger but we have to many, would be nice to trade pens for a nice dman."

I think Eberle only played LW on the PP.

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Reply #73 andrewmk20 August 22 2010, 10:21AM
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traktor wrote:

Is there ANYTHING Shawn Horcoff could have done last year that would have made willis not penciled 10 as the 1st line center?

I'm starting to believe Horcoff could go -100 with no 10 points on the year and his lackeys would still have his 1st line role reserved.

I think that's what is wrong with his organization - from management to players - it's not what you've done but who you are.

If Horcoff played in a place like NY or Philadelphia he would've already been dealt with.

The problem is where do you put the guy? Even if he's making 1.5 million dollars he doesn't really have a place on the club (surely you don't want a 3rd line center that gets outhit by Robert Nilsson).

It's not so much indicative of how great Horcoff is so much as that's how weak the Oilers are at center. Let's face it even with the poor year Horcoff had he is still a better option at number 2 than Brule. His overall game is much better and if you watched the games last year it couldn't all fall on Horcoff. His linemates for most of last season were a combination of Patrick O'Sullivan, JFJ, Moreau, Pisani, Nilsson, etc. Quinn placed him with some awful defensive players like RN, POS and JFJ, and guys who are old and injured like Moreau and Pisani.

I don't think people are leaving Horcoff blameless but he's had one bad season. Admittedly a horrific one but still only 1 bad season. With the lack of depth the Oilers have it's worth seeing if Horcoff has managed to recover from his various shoulder problems and lose the extra muscle he put on last year. Gagner has also shown at this point that he's not quite ready for No.1 status. So I think many people are hoping Horcoff can return to form not because we all love him but because of what it would mean for the rest of the players behind him.

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Reply #74 traktor August 22 2010, 10:44AM
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FO%

Brule 52.6 Horcoff 46.4

Hits

Brule 1.7 per game Horcoff 0.4 per game (yes, he really is that soft)

PTS/60

Brule 2.36 Horcoff 1.37

+/-

Brule -8 Horcoff -29

Brule's 22 year old season: 65 17 20 37 Horcoff's 22 year old season: 61 8 14 22

Horcoff is not better than Brule. He was never good but those who think he is good do so because he put up numbers the same year Cheechoo scored 56 goals and 93 points.

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Reply #75 Crackenbury August 22 2010, 10:46AM
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traktor wrote:

Is Burke desperate enough for "help" at center that he would send us Finger for Horcoff?

I would make that trade.

Horcoff for Finger? Any credibility you may have had is out the window with that comment. Like it or not, prior to injury, Horcoff was an All-star. The only issue with him is whether or not the injuries have taken their toll and he never returns to form. Finger had nothing to begin with.

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Reply #76 traktor August 22 2010, 10:56AM
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Horcoff has only had one bad season?

What would you call 2006/2007: 80 16 35 51 -22

He's only had 2 good seasons in his career.

The first was the year after the lockout where basically everyone was playing powerplay pond hockey.

Yanic Perreault had his best season of his career that year at age 34 for crying out loud with 57 points in only 69 games.

The only other year Horcoff did anything he missed 36% of the season and had an unsustainable 18.3 shooting%.

The guy was never good, folks.

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Reply #77 Archaeologuy August 22 2010, 11:06AM
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@traktor

You're fighting a losing battle. Horcoff apologists are relentless in their belief that the guy outperformed every centre on the team even though he played almost a full season without missing games to injury, was demoted to the 3rd line, was narrowly beaten out for the Green jacket, and was an offensive black hole.

I doesnt matter that younger players were promoted ahead of him, were better defensively, and outperformed him offensively. ~Clearly Horc is the best option.~

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Reply #78 traktor August 22 2010, 11:07AM
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Crackenbury wrote:

Horcoff for Finger? Any credibility you may have had is out the window with that comment. Like it or not, prior to injury, Horcoff was an All-star. The only issue with him is whether or not the injuries have taken their toll and he never returns to form. Finger had nothing to begin with.

Trust me buddy, what the average Edmonton internet Oiler fan thinks of me is not high on my priority list.

If I wanted to be cool I would just echo your opinions, right?

Horcoff's token all-star game means nothing. If the Syracuse Crunch were promoted to the NHL someone from that team would be represented at the all-star game as well. Yanic Perreault played in an all-star game.

Finger has 7 million real money left on his contract over 2 years.

Horcoff has 26 million real money left on his contract over 5 years.

My proposal would see Katz save 19 million dollars over 5 years and would save 5.5 million in cap space through 2012/2015.

Surely management could put better use to that money/cap space.

Funny thing is if Tambellini proposed that deal to Burke he would get laughed at. Not a chance Toronto makes that deal.

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Reply #79 Crackenbury August 22 2010, 11:14AM
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traktor wrote:

Trust me buddy, what the average Edmonton internet Oiler fan thinks of me is not high on my priority list.

If I wanted to be cool I would just echo your opinions, right?

Horcoff's token all-star game means nothing. If the Syracuse Crunch were promoted to the NHL someone from that team would be represented at the all-star game as well. Yanic Perreault played in an all-star game.

Finger has 7 million real money left on his contract over 2 years.

Horcoff has 26 million real money left on his contract over 5 years.

My proposal would see Katz save 19 million dollars over 5 years and would save 5.5 million in cap space through 2012/2015.

Surely management could put better use to that money/cap space.

Funny thing is if Tambellini proposed that deal to Burke he would get laughed at. Not a chance Toronto makes that deal.

That's quite a response for someone who doesn't care.

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Reply #80 traktor August 22 2010, 11:22AM
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Crackenbury wrote:

That's quite a response for someone who doesn't care.

I never say I didn't care to post.

What I said is whether you view me as credible or not doesn't matter to me.

I think your comment says more about you than it does about me anyways as Edmonton would win that deal by a landslide.

If you were a Leafs fan you would probably be telling me how Kaberle can fetch Bobby Ryan.

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Reply #81 Crackenbury August 22 2010, 11:29AM
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traktor wrote:

I never say I didn't care to post.

What I said is whether you view me as credible or not doesn't matter to me.

I think your comment says more about you than it does about me anyways as Edmonton would win that deal by a landslide.

If you were a Leafs fan you would probably be telling me how Kaberle can fetch Bobby Ryan.

From a pure money point of view, I might do that trade, however I find it difficult to give up on or dump on one of hockey's genuine good guys. Horcoff may not return to form, but I'll bet Hemsky is hoping he does. Take a look at his stats when not playing with Horcoff.

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Reply #82 traktor August 22 2010, 11:29AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

You're fighting a losing battle. Horcoff apologists are relentless in their belief that the guy outperformed every centre on the team even though he played almost a full season without missing games to injury, was demoted to the 3rd line, was narrowly beaten out for the Green jacket, and was an offensive black hole.

I doesnt matter that younger players were promoted ahead of him, were better defensively, and outperformed him offensively. ~Clearly Horc is the best option.~

The apologists would reply to you post that Horcoff has a proven track record.

They will tell you that MacT wasn't the reason for Horcoff's success but also tell you that Quinn was the reason for Horcoff's demise.

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Reply #83 traktor August 22 2010, 11:40AM
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Crackenbury wrote:

From a pure money point of view, I might do that trade, however I find it difficult to give up on or dump on one of hockey's genuine good guys. Horcoff may not return to form, but I'll bet Hemsky is hoping he does. Take a look at his stats when not playing with Horcoff.

I think Hemsky is comfortable with Horcoff but Hemsky being comfortable is probably the reason why we ask every year: Is this the year Hemsky finally breaks out?

Who has Hemsky even played with for an extended period of time other than the post-concussed Stoll?

If you want one of hockey's good guys I'm sure Katz can pay Rem Murray 100k to hang around the dressing room. Sure beats paying Horcoff 26 million.

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Reply #84 Crackenbury August 22 2010, 12:03PM
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@traktor

I have to admit I'm a bit of a dinosaur when evaluating hockey players. I don't worry about salaries when evaluating the players I like. I'll leave that to the team capologists. The season will start soon enough, then we'll know for sure where Horcoff fits in. I'm sure he's also looking forward to a season where he isn't running back and forth to the bench for every defensive end face-off on top of his own shift. Horcoff should play better if the team can define a role for him and stick to it. Last year he was first line center, third line center, pp, pk and defensive zone face-off guy. Not many players not named Crosby would have had much success.

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Reply #85 Shane August 22 2010, 12:10PM
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Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky 10-11... Hemsky actually has his breakout season, Penner scores more goals than last year, Horcoff has a season with an outstanding +/- and the Oilers make the playoffs......~too optimistic?~

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Reply #86 andrewmk20 August 22 2010, 12:29PM
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traktor wrote:

Horcoff has only had one bad season?

What would you call 2006/2007: 80 16 35 51 -22

He's only had 2 good seasons in his career.

The first was the year after the lockout where basically everyone was playing powerplay pond hockey.

Yanic Perreault had his best season of his career that year at age 34 for crying out loud with 57 points in only 69 games.

The only other year Horcoff did anything he missed 36% of the season and had an unsustainable 18.3 shooting%.

The guy was never good, folks.

The 06/07 season was horrific for everyone in Edm and I would actually say it was worse than this season due to that stretch of 21 games where edmonton couldn't score goals or win. It was actually very similar to 09/10 due to the amount of ridiculous injuries. No one had a good year. Also you have to look at the level of competition that each line faced. Horcoff is consistently put out against the top lines due to the fact he is the only veteran two way center in edm.

I'm not a huge Horcoff fan and I lamented the extention they signed him to but with the fact that he's untradeable due to the term of his contract it isn't going to hurt the Oilers to see if he can bounce back.

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Reply #87 Nooooooooooo August 22 2010, 01:53PM
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Please no Horcoff on the top line. For 1 season, can we not put him elsewhere? Please give Hemsky and Hall something to work with. Are we really going to pretend Horcoff is a number #1 C for the entire length of his contract? There's only so much smoke you can blow.

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Reply #88 Mike Modano's Dog August 22 2010, 02:02PM
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Great story, JW... I particularly like the line pairing of Horc, Jones and Fraser. Hopefully that would free up the kids for a more offensive role with softer minutes.

Here's to seeing all of MPS, Eberle, and Hall with the Oilers next year! :D

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Reply #89 Bucknuck August 22 2010, 06:08PM
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Gagner and Brule are not ready for the 1st line pressure. Brule already had his career stalled by putting him in positions where he wouldn't succeed. Why would you throw him against first line opposition? Let him develop better in sheltered minutes. I like Brule, but let's not get crazy.

I like Horcoff with Hemsky. They play well together. Horc gets back when Hemsky loses the puck while trying to dipsy do (which is often). This allows Hemsky to be creative and it makes for better offense. I would enjoy seeing them together again to see if Horc can get back to form and provide the kids more sheltered minutes. If he can't then Gagner better put up 'cause he's the defacto number 1.

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Reply #90 Archaeologuy August 22 2010, 06:42PM
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@Bucknuck

"Gagner and Brule are not ready for the 1st line pressure"

The only problem with this statement is the fact that Gagner already graduated as the Oilers' 1st line centre last year. He finished the year in that position and was playing well.

Horcoff USED to be the 1st line guy. He lost that position. It honestly doesnt matter that 4 years ago he played well with Hemsky. Those times are over.

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Reply #91 Jerk Store August 22 2010, 07:57PM
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Horcoff cannot be traded - period. In the G.M.s handbook if you look up "untradeable contract" there is a picture of Horcoff. So we need to live with that and move on. Contract notwithstanding, he is a very seviceable 3rd line centre and in my uninformed opinion should play there. So we have (hopefully) one legitimate top center who can play in the top six in Gagner. Short of a trade, we need to find another center. Choices are few and none to attractive. Penner at center does not work for me in that even if he is OK on draws, does not skate well enough or have a big enough tank to play pivot. The Hall at center argument is a joke, at least for a couple of years. As stated earlier in this thread the kid is making a huge jump to this league, please let's not ask him to learn a new position too! Cogliano and Brule - both who are likely better on the wing are the only candidates. Cogs absolutely blows at faceoffs and in his D-zone coverage, so for me I would try Brule - playing with Penner and a kid on the wing - as they have had some chemistry.

Bottom line we are going to be challenged offensively again this year unless two things happen: a) Gagner has a career-defining season and b) someone comes off the board to be a 2nd line center that can compete in this league. Frankly we will be lucky if one of these things happen - to expect both ......

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Reply #92 Woodguy August 23 2010, 07:42AM
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I think there is some disparity between what people think of as the #1 line, and what that function is.

Renney coaches a lot like MacTavish in that he will play his *best* line against the other team's best.

When it comes to centers on this team, regardless of what you think about Horcoff, no one else comes close to being able to handle the opposition's toughest players like he can.

You can hate him and says he's a 3rd line center, but reams and reams of information tell us that Horcoff is the center on this team to play the opposition's toughest players.

People in this thread have stated that Horcoff was "demoted" to 3 line play last year. Again, it depends on what you consider "3rd line"

When Horcoff played with Moreau and Pisani, they were taking on the toughest players the opposition had. Is that a third line? Depends on how you think.

If you label the lines based on how tough the opposition Renney puts them out against, then Horcoff will be your #1 center, and its not close.

If you base it on how much "fire power" is on the line, the Gagner may fit that "#1 Center" mould.

Also,

Traktor, I would say that faceoff ability ranks pretty low when it comes to measuring the ability of a center. It certainly makes a difference, but not nearly as much defensive acumen and ability to handle competition.

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Reply #93 Archaeologuy August 23 2010, 08:55AM
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@Woodguy

That defensive acumen you talk about has amounted to 2 seasons below -20 +/- in the last 4 years. Not exactly doing the job too well.

Are you actually trying to argue that last year the Oilers' 1st line was Moreau-Horc-Pisani?

Nobody measures #1 status based on who you play against, it's who you play with. Playing against the toughest opposition is exactly what you want the checking line to do. That's sort of the point of having the checking line.

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Reply #94 Jerk Store August 23 2010, 09:01AM
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@Woodguy

Woodguy,

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Reply #95 Jerk Store August 23 2010, 09:01AM
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@Woodguy

I am not hating on Horcoff. The term "3rd line" center in my mind just deems it is primarily a checking role. 3rd line is not a slam, no more than referring to a basketball center as a "5". Not to be Captain Obvious, but typically, teams in the NHL today are, in some form, equipped with 2 scoring lines, 1 checking line and one "energy" line which is another way of saying, assortment of agitators, goons, pp specialists, etc. This is a generalization, but you do need a checking line for a team to have success. The point is, based on Horcoff's recent performance he is not able to contribute enough to play as a center on a scoring line - at least on a good team. We can rationalize why this is (injury, pressure of the contract, bad wingers, etc) but "the facts is the facts". Renney may be forced to play him there, but only because of the lack of options - not based on Horcoff's ability as a pivot on a scoring line.

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Reply #96 Ryan2 August 23 2010, 09:13AM
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@Archaeologuy

@ JW - The problem I have with everyone using the +/- stat for the Oilers' supposed checking line is that it does not take our horrible defence into account. This is why the team will still struggle to make the playoffs even if Hemmer is healthy for the full season and one of the draft picks has a strong year on the second line. Our d-men are weak at making a quick and accurate outlet pass for the break out/to avoid pressure. I am expecting to see more of the same problems this year. Until we develop/draft 3 or 4 d-men that can do this on a regular basis it will be difficult our "checking" line will have horrible stats.

WRT Gagner as a #1 center, his "defensive development" (if you want to call it that) was more due to the fact that anyone that played pivot with Penner looked great last year defensively and offensively. There were a lot of times last season where Penner would cover for Gagner (and the other small centres) in the corners/down low since they were unable to physically handle their man. Until we get a true #1 centreman that can contribute offensively and physically handle their own load in the d-zone we will have issues against the top teams.

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Reply #97 Archaeologuy August 23 2010, 09:25AM
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@Ryan2

That horrible defense didnt just come onto the ice for 1 guy. 10 played with the same bad defense that the rest of the team played with.

And Penner didnt make every centre he played with look good. There was at least one guy that looked pretty terrible, as I recall.

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Reply #98 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F August 23 2010, 09:39AM
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All the interenet pro's can continue to declair Horcoff the #3 center all they want, but in a few months we're likely to see NHL coaching staff #3 play him as the #1 (or at least #2).

If that happens, it should tell us all we need to know.

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Reply #99 Crackenbury August 23 2010, 09:45AM
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A lot of guys don't seem to grasp the difference between hard minutes and soft minutes played. Our young guys like Gagner have been protected from playing the hard minutes against the oppositions best players, as they should be. Our team stunk last year. Getting out of our own zone was like an episode of Keystone Cops. To lay the +/- figure on Horcoff, who faced the tough opposition not only on his own shifts but in defensive zone face-offs in place of our young players, is short sighted. There is a reason all of our coaches and managment over the past several years continue to use him in the tough spots. He's the best we've got and used properly should still be a decent player.

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Reply #100 Woodguy August 23 2010, 11:17AM
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Arch,

I'm just trying to get the definitions right so the conversation is correct, instead of arguing semantics.

You said: "Playing against the toughest opposition is exactly what you want the checking line to do. That's sort of the point of having a checking line"

So when Horcoff, Penner and Hemsky were being played against the toughest competition 2 years ago, they were a checking line?

Here is a list (from coppernblue) of players who play against the toughest comp in the league. The list only includes forwards who have had the toughest comp numbers on their teams for 3 consecutive year, so you can say "they play the toughs"

Right Wing Jochen Hecht, Ilya Kovalchuk, Henrik Zetterberg

Center: Pavel Datsyuk, Scott Gomez, Martin Hanzal, Shawn Horcoff, Jay McClement, Samuel Pahlsson, Mike Richards, Eric Staal, Stephen Weiss,

Right Wing: Daniel Alfredsson, Milan Hejduk, Rick Nash, Martin St. Louis

So are all these guys "checkers?"

The notion that you have to have a Mike Peca type to play the opposition's toughest comp is not a notion that all NHL coaches use.

As you can see by some of the names, Atlanta, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Philly, Ottawa, Columbus and others put out their best players against the other team's best players and not designated "checkers"

The theory being that if your "#1" line can neutralize or outscore the other team's "#1" line then you will win the game.

The theory that the 3rd line is a "tough minute checking line" is out the window in many cases in the NHL, and I'd suggest out the window with Renney.

Last year he moved Horcoff to play with Pisani and Moreau, I would consider this the "checking line", but don't expect that this year. Not with the way Renney coaches and the lack of veteran wingers on this team.

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