The Forwards
Jonathan Willis
August 21 2010 01:44PM
Over at his other place, Lowetide has been spending the last few weeks going through the Oilers’ forwards and establishing benchmarks for the performance of each of them. He does it every summer, and then reviews those projections throughout the year. Because his estimates are conservative, as a rule they get argued with when they’re made and then start looking better and better as the season goes on.
His final list of the Oilers forwards went up today, and it’s a roster that screams one thing: this is another rebuilding year.
It’s way, way too early to be putting together line combinations, but it’s a fun exercise and makes it easier to picture where everybody might fit in. The following is how I’d do it, based on today’s roster and today’s assumptions, but it’s intended as a rough outline to give us an idea of what we’re looking at rather than an actual plan:
- Hall – Horcoff – Hemsky
- Penner – Gagner – Brule
- Paajarvi/Eberle – Fraser – Jones
- Jacques – Cogliano - Stortini
In this scenario, Steve MacIntyre and one of Omark, O’Marra, Giroux would serve as the extras, with the loser of the battle between Eberle and Paajarvi getting sent to the minors for lots of minutes (and tagged as the likely first call-up). There are other scenarios possible; for example, one could envision Hemsky, Penner and Gagner as a power-vs.power line, with Horcoff, Fraser and Jones becoming a shutdown trio and with a sheltered kids line in between centered by Brule or Cogliano. Like I said, it’s less about the actual lines than getting a better idea of what this group is going to look like next year.
It isn’t a contending team. Neither Colin Fraser nor Ryan Jones has a track record above the fourth line (although both performed well in that role), the kids are all question marks, Horcoff and Cogliano are coming off awful seasons, Brule’s coming off his first good season, and guys like Jacques, O’Marra and MacIntyre aren’t likely to outperform NHL competition.
And that’s just fine. Chalk me up as a fan of rebuilding; another bad year and another good pick are things I can get behind. The important thing is to have the title of Lowetide’s series: reasonable expectations. It’s a great year to watch the kids for improvements, enjoy the debuts of some fantastic rookies, and see whether guys getting slotted in new roles can perform. If the team surprises and starts winning games, it’s all gravy.
lets assume Hall, Eberle, and MPS are on the team but shouldn't be on the same line. We have 6 other forwards to make 3 sets and give each pair a rookie.
3 centres are Horc, Gagner, and Fraser so that sets the core for each line.
Horc has played well with Hemsky and that ain't easy so lets call that a pair. Gagner is ready for more minutes so lets put him with Penner (our best layer last year). That leaves Brule and Fraser who could have complimentary styles.
IMO, Hall is a finisher so lets put him with Hemsky and Horc. Tht leaves MPS and Eberle for the other two lines.
IMO, MPS has a better defensive game and his speed might be out of sync with Gagner and Penner. The lines look like
(Hall - Horc - Hemsky) (Penner - Gagner - Eberle) (MPS - Fraser - Brule)
That actually isn't a bad top 9
Nice to see you around these parts again Travis.
if its going to be a Loser fest, id rather have all three kids play and drop guys out like Jones/JFJ. what really is the point of having JFJ and Storts on the same line farting around? i guess whoever emerges as the most hellraiser gets the spot but theres numerous scenarios there that could accommodate all three kids.
Penner - Gagner - Hemsky
Hall - Horcoff - Eberle
MPS - Fraser - Brule
Jones - Cogliano - Storts
does Gagner really deserve the top spot? nope. but who cares right now?
OilBaron wrote:
Do you know how many even-strength scoring plays Hall and Eberle have been on together, ever?
Three. All of those scoring plays occurred during the 2008 U18 tournament, where the two played for a while on a line with Cody Hodgson.
At this last year's World Juniors, Hall and Eberle played on different lines.
Those are the two times they've played competitive hockey on the same team.
So - three goals over 13 games on the same team. I'm not sure what I was thinking, splitting them up, when they had such obvious chemistry that they weren't even put on the same line at the World Juniors.
But hey, keep pulling stuff out of random places, presenting it as fact, and criticizing any disagreement with it. This place wouldn't be nearly as much fun without healthy doses of misinformation and inaccurate memory.
@OilBaron
I'm sorry for your loss. Really, I am. That must have hurt.
It must have hurt, but since he is the one who typed out that post and subsequently hit "post comment" I suppose he had it coming.
Something tells me that first line would have Hemsky demanding a trade ten games into the season.
However I have to agree with your third. We all whine about Cogliano, yet here he is set up to fail again by playing him with yet another denver boot in JFJ. How that guy even rates an NHL uniform is beyond me.
If we have to set up Cogs on the fourth unit and since we all know MacIntyre isn't going to play a regular shift, why not think about Cogs with Stortini and maybe Omark. A tough guy crashing the net and two skill guys working out front.
Ahhh what do I know. I really feel bad for Cogs. He's a guy that needs real NHL'ers to do his best work, yet it seems something as simple as a Horcoff, Comrie, Cogliano line just isn't going to be in the cards.
Its gonna be a loooooong season boys.
*Heads off to renew tranquilizer prescription for the next six months*
@OilBaron
Oilbaron,
JW puts up line combos JUST FOR FUN and you have to get so bent out of shape about it?
As you don't seem to have grasped it, here it is again. His points are 1) that the reasonable expectation for this group of forwards should not be high. It doesn't matter how you line them up, this team is not going to be good. And 2) that isn't necessarily a bad thing.
Couldn't agree more.
Now lighten up Francis.
What the hell are you talking about? I was poking fun at him for making a comeback to an EPIC beat down, 7 hours later. Should I have been more liberal with the "~" to make you feel less offended? For the record, I wouldn't make such a comment if someone like Brownlee or Lowetide followed up in a similar fashion because neither of them would have said something so "asinine" to begin with.
Why do so many of you insist on pissing and moaning about a product that is presented to you for free? Why do you, while hiding behind a pseudonym, attack Willis for what he wrote? Because it echoed what another esteemed blogger had to say? You know, you could just not read it or better yet, start your own blog so I can choose to not read that! Remember, we are all here because of a love for the same thing... The Oilers. (Except RossCreek. That guy is a douchebag*)
*RossCreek is smart enough to know that I am joking in this instance. Humour.
p.s. It's been discussed on this blog a few times over the years that peak time for page hits is between the hours of 9-5 and on game nights. Saturday night in August would probably rank pretty low on the list. So yes I am suggesting that when Willis made his comments at 2:30 in the afternoon, he stood a pretty solid chance of having a lot more people read his comments than OilBaron did at 9:30 at night. Less readers means less people to rip on you when you finally think of something to say in response. But like I said, I'm here! I'm here because this is all I have. See that's some more of that humour for you!~~~~~~~~~~~~
Promise? HAHA you do a fine job of demonstrating your lack of reading comprehension skills, get put right in your place and then come back for a second beating with this: "Your limited understanding of the game does not go beyond what a spread sheet or calculator can tell you, thus the poke. It hurts because its valid."
And I'm not supposed to rib you about that? Come on man! This sh!t writes itself. Do yourself a favour and re-read what Willis wrote, followed up by his comments to you and put it together.... You look like a tool.
Love Travis.
p.s. Green kool-aid is some damn fine drinking.
Season is coming soon! I'm well refreshed and ready to party.
Nope, I laughed and therefore it worked.
I'm no comedian, just clearly blessed with far more awesome than you. Can you feel it? You can go check out some of the archives of www.jeanshortsandbaggedmilk.com (That'll be five bucks for the plug JS) if you'd like to see a record of what people think of my humour.
And for the record, what does "you should take a look in the mirror every once in a week" mean? I mean, I understand each word but, putting them together in that way just makes a mockery of that half-assed attempt at eloquence you made in post #48
Wow, it's gonna be a long rebuild if this sh!t keeps up... I mean aren't we all on the same team here?!?
Solid point Bro, people do have to temper there expectations. But man it would be sweet if they were better than expected
Why have Hall with 10 and 83 when he has chemistry with Eberle?
Why have MPS with Jones and Fraser?
And why insist on putting Cogliano at center when he can't play the position?
I guess calculators and spread sheets can't figure it out.
I realize the Oilers have Hall as the only skilled LW, but MPS plays LW. Hell, Hall plays all 3 forwards positions. Even the Pats still have Eberle as a center.
It makes much more sense to have MPs who plays a complimentary style of game to 83 play with 10 and 83. Then Hall and Eberle play with Gagner (until a suitable replacement is found). Penner maintin chemistry with Brule with a new RW or C. Then Fraser playing 4th line C role with whoever.
@ OilBaron:
From the article:
Still waiting for training camp...
OilBaron wrote:
Quick, name four players on the 2010-11 Edmonton Oilers who have spent a significant amount of time at centre in the NHL.
Hall's a winger. Eberle's a winger. Paajarvi's a winger. Gilbert Brule took more faceoffs this year than at any other time in his NHL career, in a season where he was mostly used as a winger.
Given that I've argued time and time again that Cogliano should play wing, do you suppose I was a) advocating keeping him at centre at all costs or b) guessing what the Oilers would do or c) trying to put forth a scenario where Ryan O'Marra/Chris Vande Velde aren't relied on as everyday NHL players? Feel free to suggest any combination of those three points.
OilBaron wrote:
Just so I'm clear here, your scenario would look like this:
Paajarvi - Horcoff - Hemsky
Hall - Gagner - Eberle
Penner - ? - Brule
Jones/Cogliano - Fraser - Stortini
Meaning Penner's on the third line, and that one of Jones or Cogliano is out of the lineup. Neither of those last two things is going to (or should) happen.
"...it’s a roster that screams one thing: this is another rebuilding year."
I want them to finish bottom-3 and draft Adam Larsson, Sean Couturier or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Preferably Larsson as their potential big, two-way, #1 defenseman of the future. Nugent-Hopkins would be fun, though, since with MPS and JDD they'd pretty much have the market cornered on players with hyphenated last names.
OilBaron wrote:
Some fun with numbers:
Zero - the number of times a calculator was referred to for the above post.
Zero - the number of times a spreadsheet was referred to for the above post.
Zero - the number of numbers used in the above post.
But hey, why abandon a fun generalization just because it's inaccurate and irrelevant?
This is the year that Gagner takes over as the fulltime #1 (#1 being defined as Hemsky's centre). He was the top guy to end the year, and he'll pick up where he left off. Horc might be generously given the 2nd line duties with a load of PK time and defensive zone faceoffs, but he wont be the guy to Hemsky's left. Rebuild.
Penner is also very good defensively and is probably a better option to take against the opposition's best than Hall.
That leaves the possible 3rd line of MPS-Cogliano-Eberle. This line gets a lot of soft minutes which will be necessary for the rookies and will hopefully make Cogliano more attractive in the trade market (if that's what the team wants).
4th line of MacIntyre-Fraser-Stortini to keep everybody honest with the kids.
As J Willis suggests, the line combinations aren't really important.
What's important is that the Oilers are motivated and competitive. Two things that were awfully lacking this year.
@Brian P: I think everyone agrees with you.
We just want these boys to play hard and learn to compete at the NHL level. If they don't, Rennie should be fired and replaced with OilBaron who is clearly an Idiot Savant.
just for fun, Jonathan, the longest name of any NHL player i've ever seen, ever, is a player named Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Lebond of the New Jersey Devils. also the most hyphenated name i've ever seen.
Whoa Willis! Climb off Oil Baron, he is tapping out. Dude must have kicked your puppy or something. Note to self: never ... and I mean EVER tick off the Statman.
JW; I think Eberle and Hall plyed the first pp shift in the world juniors right? Would they likely be played as 2/3 of this years second pp line then?
I wonder how many points you think the power play is good for in the standings this yr?
My lines would look like this
1stPiaarvi-Hall-Hemsky 2ndPenner-Gagner-Brule 3rdCogliano-Horcoff-Eberle/Omark 4thMacintyre-Fraser-Stortini
Jones and Jacques can move into that leftwing spot on 4th line but MacIntyre has to dress at least 50 games if the kids are in the line up.
I got Hall at centre because we need a number #1 having Horcoff there is retarded, skill set suggests he's a #2 at best. I don't have any huge expectations, except to see these kids grow into solid NHLers, and develope correctly be it here or in OKC. I'm not against seeing Penner at centre, in order for this season to be a success your making the playoffs or your bottom 5 question is how do you get there?
I understand that having Piaarvi and Hall on the top line is a stretch maybe but how do you deny the skill level when considering the teammates they line up with on a nightly basis. Time will give us the answers to these questions.
Willis vs. OilBaron, in cartoon form:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAUY1J8KizU
Am i detecting a conscious or sub conscious bias against our European talent here ? Last i checked they were all Oilers ? Very few make your lists , and most have O'Marra rated above them . Omark , Horcoff and Svensson might turn out our top line line, and best power play unit . But two of them are those Swedes , so that won't work , right ?
I think people underestimate the impact getting rid of Moreau and POS is going to have on the team. Both players were inside the top ten in average time on ice per game and were impressivly aweful.
The addition by subtraction in regards to Moreau and POS and a team that will more than likely be healthier, is going to equal more points. I dont see this team finishing in the bottom five at the end of the year.
Good point JW. Eberle and Hall were only ever paired up on purpose on the first PP Unit during the Juniors. Which is why I was so confused about everyone making the point that they've played together a lot and have great chemistry. They don't really have chemistry so much as they are both a terror on the PP at the Junior level.
Also any oilers fan that was expecting a finish in the 10-8 range in the Western conference has to be dreaming. They'll be a little better than the 62pt performance last year but not by that much. The only thing that seems to be for sure is that there is a higher ceiling in terms of offensive potential within the top 6.
Hope the Oilers get Couturier or Larsson next draft!!
also if you were actually an oilers fan OilBaron you would have seen that Hemsky and Penner were the ones with chemistry as Penner piled on points at a very high rate during the first 22 games. Without Hemsky last season Penner would have probably finished the year in the 50 point range instead of being a 30/30 guy. Gagner was mostly just along for the ride with those two and the Penner/Gagner/Brule trio was decent but were not a first line, they should have been a second line but because of massive injuries they were put into a tough spot playing against the toughest opposition.
There is a reason the Oilers started the season averaging over 3 goals per game and finished in the bottom five again in offence. Hemsky isn't a complete player but he is a very very good offensive player that the Oilers sorely missed last year.
This chart that JW has is just to give us fans a look at who will probably be in the starting lineup. Besides lineups change on an almost continual basis for all teams in the NHL due to injuries, hot/cold streaks, trades, etc.
1. Horcoff - Hall - Hemsky 2. Brule - Penner - Eberle 3. Gagner - MPS - Stortini 4. Fraser - Cogliano - Jones
But don't ask me for any stats to back this up. I would like to see Brule/Penner, Gagner/MPS and Hall/Hemsky together with the rest filling the holes.
Cogs has speed & skill. Hall clearly has both. Why not put them together and see what they can do. Cogs has spent too much time playing with guys that can't keep up.
X2
It never ends...the insistence of the ON writers to push Horcoff as the #1 center....
The time is now to change the look of this team...it has gone nowhere with Horcoff getting the most minutes amongst forwards.
Insert youth in the top six and let er ride for the good and the bad.
As a season ticket holder, if I have to watch more top line minutes and pp minutes for Horcoff I'm going to puke all over Rexall place.
I'm kind of confused why so many people think that Hall will be a Centre, and on the top line no less.
He's a LW and it will be extremely difficult for him to keep up on the 1st line at that position (his best). He hasnt played C in over a year on a regular basis and that was in Juniour. He's 18. There is no way that he cracks the top line as a Centre. No way.
The Oilers want the kid to succeed. They arent going to shoot the kid in the foot by forcing him to learn how to be a centre in the NHL in his first season.
I think JW is well-supported in going after guys who show up with the intent to insult and be belligerent. If Brownlee is lauded for doing it, why can't anyone else?
BTW, I like those line combos, and would be happy to see Eberle play most of the season in the AHL and come up next year to get the Calder in 2011-12.
Triple H line!
Of course, that is forgetting that Renney will make the MacBlender look tame (in all likelihood).
Cogliano on the 4th line is wasting his talent and will do nothing for his trade value. I see it as a waste of a roster spot in some ways to have hime there. What to do with #13.
@Rocket
that would be interesting on the 2nd line with gagner at center very interesting indeed
@ Jonathan Willis:
Lowetide could have posted this himself. You wasted an entire post when two words in his blog's comment section ("I agree") would have done the job.
No matter how much you want it to be, this is not Lowetide's blog.
Thanks! Everybody knows Cogs is fast but few see how important that is to his game and how the Oilers can use that to their advantage in the transition.
Yet you went ahead and blogged it anyway. Good job, you put the disclaimer up and went ahead and ran with it.
I guess I'll ignore the 2 weeks at Christmas they spent together on and off the ice and practising together. The "3 times" they spent on the same line are exactly 3 more than with any other player on the roster. Please provide your link.
Nice of you to wait until most of the readership has logged off for the night before you make your come back. But I see you... Just take your lumps and walk away clean.
Quick name 4 players on the roster of the Oilers that are capable of playing center in the NHL... after Horcoff you have Brule and Fraser with Gagner and Cogliano combining for a face off winning percentage south of 45%... Brule 52.6%, 80% in 11 games, 51.3%, 45.9% (first full NHL season, and 43.3 in 7 games (injury shortend). Centers need to win faceoffs and he is head a tails above Cogs and Gags. Fraser hasn't had a season above 48.8%
Need options at center, leave the kids in OKC ans sign a free agent.
Because I typed them in that order you beleive them to be my suggested #1, #2, #3, #4... don't make assumptions. You really think 2 rookies and a smurf on the second line makes sense? I know I don't.
Your limited understanding of the game does not go beyond what a spread sheet or calculator can tell you, thus the poke. It hurts because its valid.
You're a real piece of work. I'm pretty sure the assumption was that Gagner would be the 2nd line centre, making Eberle and Hall members of the 2nd line based on your line combos.
Asking Willis if he really thinks that what you wrote makes any sense is pretty amusing though. I was under the assumption that, "Neither of those last two things is going to (or should) happen.", was Willis' way of telling you that he didnt think it made sense.
For you I'll login every 5 minutes to be up to date next time. You and the koolaid drinkers can take shots anytime you like.