Andrew Cogliano & What Have You Done For Me Lately

Jonathan Willis
August 24 2010 05:59PM

COLUMBUS, OH - MARCH 15: Andrew Cogliano #13 of the Edmonton Oilers skates during their NHL game against the Columbus Blue Jackets on March 15, 2010 at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. The Blue Jackets defeated the Oilers 5-3. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

One of the second-tier issues the Oilers face this summer (behind Khabibulin and Souray) is what to do with Andrew Cogliano, fresh off the worst season of his NHL career.

Jim Matheson shone some light on what’s happening behind the scenes earlier today in a catch-all article, and got some great quotes from Cogliano’s agent, Anton Thun. Lowetide keyed in on Thun’s comment about other teams, but for my money the key point Thun made was this one:

 

"We're looking at the book of business that Andrew's created in his three years in Edmonton and we're trying to come up with an assessment where he fits as to other people who have signed.”

 

How one looks at Cogliano depends to no small degree on how one weights his performance this past season versus his performance in his first two seasons. Thun talks about the “book” that Cogliano’s created in his three years in Edmonton, and if we look at it from that perspective he deserves a fairly decent contract – two 18 goal seasons in three years, two seasons with solid offensive numbers.

Unfortunately for Thun and Cogliano, the NHL is a ‘what have you done for me lately’ league. Alex Tanguay scored 258 points in 280 games between 2005 and 2009 – an average pace of 76 points per 82 games played. Now, though, he’s a guy with injuries coming off a 37 point season – and that’s exactly how the Flames paid him when they signed him to a contract this summer. Because Cogliano’s a restricted free agent, Thun can talk to other teams about him – and I hope he is, because I don’t think anyone’s willing to pay a premium for him coming off such a lousy season.

Personally, I think Cogliano’s got value, though it kills me that a guy with faceoff percentage/defensive awareness as bad as his keeps getting trotted out at centre. This is a rebuilding year, and it seems as good a time as any to try him out full-time on the wing on a scoring line – and if that keeps one of the shiny rookies in Oklahoma for the season, is that such a bad thing?

I honestly don’t know if Cogliano’s going to be a fit for the Oilers long-term; he’s small and his strengths and weaknesses aren’t an ideal fit with the current roster, but I do know this: his value is at an all-time low, both in terms of the kind of contract he deserves and the kind of trade return he’d fetch, and that makes trading him now a less than ideal situation. I also believe he’s a better player than he showed last season, where he wasn’t well-used by Pat Quinn, and I think he might show it if the Oilers give him one more year.

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Jonathan Willis covers hockey for the Nation Network. He also currently writes for the Edmonton Journal's Cult of Hockey, Grantland, and Hockey Prospectus. His work has appeared at theScore, ESPN and Puck Daddy. He started writing professionally in 2008 as the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue. Contact him at jonathan (dot) willis (at) live (dot) ca; he's also on Twitter at http://twitter.com/JonathanWillis
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Reply #51 madjam August 25 2010, 05:00PM
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@ Dave and Ross . My 3 year plan apply accounts for projected revenue over next three seasons . My cap remains same as this year for next 3 seasons , but goes up next three only to suppliment plan . You can use all or none of it if you wanted . Secondly my 3 year sealing on cap is slightly below $65M in three years time , and projection in 3 years time with revenue should probably exceed that figure .

Thirdly it would not be even $5M more , because those players are under contract anyways even if in minors . Once again how much of that so called increase are you going to use over next 3 seasons when when max is 2 first year , 2 more the next year and only 1 the last year ? $ 2 +2 +1 = 5M max with cap still held at present rate . I'd project only about $ 2.5 M increase overall to present cap after 3 years . Thats well below projected revenues i am sure .

Fourthly is the players result in net pay should increase as escrow now shared by more members . Say 22 up to 3 year high of 5 = 27 . Financial picture in that regard should also be beneficial to players .

You both earn my butt plant of the week award .

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Reply #52 PabstBR55 August 25 2010, 05:29PM
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madjam wrote:

@ Dave and Ross . My 3 year plan apply accounts for projected revenue over next three seasons . My cap remains same as this year for next 3 seasons , but goes up next three only to suppliment plan . You can use all or none of it if you wanted . Secondly my 3 year sealing on cap is slightly below $65M in three years time , and projection in 3 years time with revenue should probably exceed that figure .

Thirdly it would not be even $5M more , because those players are under contract anyways even if in minors . Once again how much of that so called increase are you going to use over next 3 seasons when when max is 2 first year , 2 more the next year and only 1 the last year ? $ 2 +2 +1 = 5M max with cap still held at present rate . I'd project only about $ 2.5 M increase overall to present cap after 3 years . Thats well below projected revenues i am sure .

Fourthly is the players result in net pay should increase as escrow now shared by more members . Say 22 up to 3 year high of 5 = 27 . Financial picture in that regard should also be beneficial to players .

You both earn my butt plant of the week award .

Tommy Boy. Great movie: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3aSjWjjhJTo

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Reply #53 David S August 25 2010, 11:33PM
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OK. What the h3ll is a "butt plant"?

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Reply #54 Ender August 26 2010, 09:06AM
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madjam wrote:

@ Dave and Ross . . . You both earn my butt plant of the week award .

I'm not completely sure what the award is, but Davey and RC are pretty savvy customers. If they get one, I want one too. Can I have next week's?

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Reply #55 Ender August 26 2010, 09:28AM
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David S wrote:

OK. What the h3ll is a "butt plant"?

I looked it up; it's actually quite a cute little award.

http://www.perpetualkid.com/big-butt-plant-ornament.aspx

That's very thoughtful, madjam.

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Reply #56 BK August 26 2010, 10:10PM
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REPOSTING:

Hey Willis,

What do we get if his agent DOES get him a great deal somewhere else? How does the compensation work for the oilers?

I like Cogs, but not sure his hands will ever catch up to his feet! Should I be cheering for his agent? Sounds like Ottawa kind of liked him last summer...

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Reply #57 RossCreekNation August 26 2010, 10:40PM
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@BK

2010 Compensation:

* $1,020,348 or below: No compensation.
* $1,020,348 to $1,545,981: A third-round draft choice.
* $1,545,981 to $3,091,963: A second round draft choice.
* $3,091,963 to $4,637,944: A first-round choice and a third-rounder.
* $4,637,944 to $6,183,925: A first- a second- and a third-rounder.
* $6,183,925 to $7,729,907: Two First-round choices, a second-rounder and a third-rounder.
* Over $7,729,907: Four first-rounders.

http://www.mynhltraderumors.com/2009/09/11/compensation-for-signing-a-nhl-restricted-free-agent/

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