Gilbert Brule & The “Kill Floor”
Jonathan Willis
August 05 2010 07:14PM
The title for today’s post is in reference to David Staples’ comments the other day on Gilbert Brule, a player he expects to continue scoring goals – because he fires the puck from close to the net.
I’ve made my thoughts on Brule clear here before, and I don’t want to re-hash an old debate or beat a dead horse, so I’m not going to re-visit those. Instead, I wanted to address the specific point that Staples made in his post:
If you look at all of Brule's shooting stats from this past season, there are a few good signs. Some hockey commentators like to focus on the number of shots a player gets in trying to determine how many goals he might score, and while I don't disregard that notion, the more important thing is the quality of those shots.For instance, was the shot from the kill floor, right in front of the net?
That's the kind of shot that Penner took this past year, which is why he scored so many goals. His shots were from close in, just 26 feet away from the net on average according to Behind the Net, third best on the Oilers. He also screened the goalie and tipped in shots to help score more goals than any other Oiler. Other players fired shots at the Oilers net at a higher rate, including the likes of Patrick O'Sullivan and Ethan Moreau, but while O'Sullivan and Moreau inflated their shooting totals by launching outside shots at the enemy net -- essentially turning over the puck to the other team each time they shot -- Penner made his living crowding and crashing the goalie.
And indeed, a quick check of Behind The Net shows that Staples is correct; Gilbert Brule did fire the puck closer to the net than any other Oiler. Brule narrowly edged out two other goal-scoring forwards: Dustin Penner and Mike Comrie. So this should be regarded as a sign that Brule’s shooting percentage is sustainable, right?
Unfortunately, no. Behind the Net also offers us the ability to break down Brule’s five-on-five shots by type – slap shots, snap shots and wrist shots, and a look at that data is revealing:
| Type of Shot | Goals | Shots | Distance | SH % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slap | 5 | 17 | 39.8 | 17.9 |
| Snap | 3 | 16 | 29.0 | 13.0 |
| Wrist | 3 | 34 | 24.5 | 6.4 |
| Total | 15 | 92 | 25.6 | 10.7 |
The shots included in the total but not broken down by category include one back-hand and three deflections, which Desjardins doesn’t track at Behind the Net, and thus aren’t listed above.
It’s an interesting list, because Brule’s most frequent shot (a wrist shot from in close) had the worst shooting percentage. He had good success with snap-shots, and fabulous success with slap shots – despite the fact that those shots came from far out. That suggests to me that Brule is riding at least a slight shooting percentage bubble. Brule was one of only six players to score five or more slap shot goals at even-strength, and none of the other players – Kovalchuk, Semin, Zajac, Modano and Marleau – had a better shooting percentage than him.
The NHL has links to three of those five slap shot goals, and video of a fourth on their Brule player page:
I’m not sure what the standard success rate is for those shots from the far side of the faceoff circle; I’d guess it isn’t good, though. Certainly Brule’s been snake-bit there before; in the only other NHL season we have a record for he went 0-for-16 with his slap-shot.
Now, there’s an argument to be made here that Brule has a high enough calibre of shot that he can score those goals on a continuing basis. As I’ve indicated, I’m sceptical of that but I don’t have evidence either way and so I’m not going to debate it, and if readers are on the other side of the fence from me all I can say is that I hope they're right and we'll get a better idea next season.
The one thing that I think is clear is that last season Brule didn’t goose his shooting percentage by firing from in close.
@ OilBaron:
None of those things you quote show me damning Brule for his success. There's a reason for that; the reason being that I hope Brule does enjoy success. He's had enough struggle early in his career and he's done things - I'm thinking about the Maddox Flynn donation - that make me want him to succeed.
But I've looked at a lot of players over the last few years, and the reality is that shooting percentage fluctuations are unstable. This article and this article and this article and especially this one are all good points of reference, although there are plenty more. Shooting percentage goes up and down from season to season, and it generally regresses the following year.
It's nothing personal; it's just the pattern most NHL players follow. And your say-so doesn't change the evidence supporting that point of view.
I am glad that you wrote this article. Building up false expectations is where fan favourites turn into "bums".
I like Brule a lot, but I believe all those folks thinking he will get 25 goals next season are going to be soundly disappointed Then what? Everyone will wonder what is the matter with him, when he is in fact being the playe he is being paid to be.
Off topic, but I thought at least a couple people might find this interesting.
I trying to find out what numbers the new players are going to be wearing because a couple friends want new jerseys.
I just found out that the mass firings this summer put number assignments into disarray and the reason we don't know their numbers is because no numbers have been assigned for next season yet.
I found out that they just started assigning numbers today (possibly yesterday) so we should hear soon what the new guys will be wearing.
For Brule goals, some guy on youtube has a channel entirely devoted to him. So http://www.youtube.com/user/GilbertBruleScores gives every NHL goal he has scored!
Brule needs to keep his FISTs thinking Snap, not wrister when in close and otherwise GB should rip the slapper from wherever he damn well likes!! That or he needs to develop a quick release by meshing his snap/wrist technique. Seems like that isn't anything some focused practice can't deliver.
After Brule's signing I took the time to watch every goal highlight of his and it is true that he has one hell of a shot. However I do think that it's more his snap than slap that will earn him consistent bread and butter. So I expect him to be able to keep up a solid % if he does consider your thoughts in this article; which btw is excellently done even though I tend to disagree with you JW (especially about JDD).
20-25 goals for mr. brule this year
Brule's shot last year reminded me of Stoll's shot improvement during the Roadrunner year. I think Brule will have a solid 2010-11 and continue to improve.
I've refreshed this article three times now, and I get four different goals every time. The tags from NHL.com refer to the four slap shots I mentioned, but if you're seeing different goals than those four (three perimeter shots against Anaheim, Toronto, and Calgary and one from the high slot against Toronto) it's an issue with NHL.com, not Oilers Nation.
I've never understood the hate for a player doing his job, doing his job in his role, having success, and playing to the expectations of his high draft. Damn him and his good play. Damn him and doubt him for no reason... perspective, he is still a growing player and he has attributes that few other Oilers have.
OilBaron wrote:
Jonathan Willis wrote:
You're misrepresenting my position. I'm not sure if you're just reading what you want to read or if you hope to convince others by attributing a line of reasoning to me that I've never pursued, but it's a dishonest tack to take.
@Jonathan Willis
I don't know if OilBaron even knows what exactly he was trying to say by his post! Personally, I'm not even sure what he meant despite the fact that I have a very high reading comprehension.
@ Jonathan Willis, This was a slap shot imo..
http://oilers.nhl.com/club/recap.htm?id=2009020297
Nov 18 Brule scores 20 seconds into the 2nd period, it wasn't a "howitzer" but he made something out of nothing because he shoots with speed, and doesn't look down at the puck.
Budaj barely cheated and Brule exposed him.
Was this a snap shot? wrist shot? just an observation but the stat is subjective ...
I'm getting the exact same 4 goals using a Mac with Safari as my browser:
Video 1 is the Anahiem hash mark slapper. Video 2 is the Toronto slot one-timer. Video 3 is an off the rush slapper against Toronto tipped by Kabrle. Video 4 is a PP deflection vs Detroit.
@ Nate:
My bad; I can't read the writing I've scribbled down under my descriptions of Brule's goals. That one is listed as a slap shot at NHL.com, while the shot against Anaheim is listed as a snap shot. I'll make the correction in the article.
I'm going off memory but didn't Brule have two shots go in off his ass last year? Or was it one of the ass and then credited with an opposition own-goal?
@ mxke:
I deleted the videos, went and re-copied the links, and posted them again. I keep getting the Detroit deflection instead of the slap shot from just outside the hash marks.
For anyone interested in looking at all of Brule's goals that there's video for (including the Calgary one that won't seem to play here) I'd suggest his NHL.com video page.
@@NateInEdmonton
Definitely a slap shot. No snap shot should be an above the knee wind up.
@ spOILer:
Brule was credited with three deflections last year, but nhl.com doesn't have video for all of them so I couldn't say.
No worries.
It's weird when "small" players have "heavy" shots ala Martin St.Louis.
Basically my point is that goalies can cheat against the Oilers.
Brule's shot off the rush keeps goalies honest which Gagner,Cogliano don't have yet.
@ Jonathon Willis
I am refering to your previous post, to quote:
"What I am saying is that I see a bunch of red flags, and if I were thinking of spending $2.0 million dollars or so, those red flags would bother me a lot. If I were Steve Tambellini, they might even bother me enough to ask what kind of trade value I might get for him at this summer’s NHL Entry Draft."
The red flags are called progress, if you weren't emersed in BS error ridden stats you would recognize them for what they are.
"So this should be regarded as a sign that Brule’s shooting percentage is sustainable, right? Unfortunately, no...
The shooting percentage... scoring is as much a system of situational success, lucky bounces, or method of attack in the offensive zone. Can the shooting percentage sustain, it makes no matter of the type of shot but the situaion and opportunity they come in. It's a ludicrous conclusion.
Lets analyse his assists next to determin if his assist total is sustainable by the type of shot they were scored on.
@OilBaron
I do agree with you in the sense that at this point in time there truly, is not enough statistical or realistic empirical evidence to lay a valid argument about Brule's likely hood of maintaining a high shooting percentage. Aside from saying "that boy has one helluva shot!"
On the flip side you are not entirely clarifying your argument and result to lines like "BS error ridden stats" instead of articulating a sound logic. A statement that would benefit your argument would be to refer to the 1-0 vs Toronto goal as non-applicable because the shot was deflected and thus not a true shooter vs goalie situation. Such a point (if implemented) would support your argument rather than leaving it to wear thin on it's audacious "your stats are sh*t" standpoint.
PUCK!!!! I just had an awesome post YET AGAIN deleted by this damn site!!!
Is there some kind of time-out limit that will not accept a post and instead send it out into the further regions of the nether rather than uploading it properlly??!
GRRRRrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr! Oh well OilBaron I had a sympathetic criticism for you that doesn't exist any more and I'm too buzzed to remember it and too apathetic to care about rehashing it.
@ mxke:
I feel your pain. I now copy any lengthy comment I'm about to make just in case ON's wacky servers reject it.
Try and remember you are using fractions and insignifcant fluctuations that can be explained away as nothing more than an anomaly, RE: Luck it's somewhere in Behind the net I'm sure.
20 goals is soundly reasonable and 25 respectfully hopefully. GB was "on pace" for 21.45 goals over 82 games versus his 17 in 65 games (due to injury). If he doesn't produce less than a 0.25 goals/game clip, then there is reason to be critical. Otherwise the boy will be doing just fine.
AYE, indeed a lesson now fully learned!
Oh well, time for another drink!
@ OilBaron:
I'm not sure you looked at the article I bolded, which compared above average shooters in 2007-08 to their results in 2008-09.
Collectively, they went from 12.2% down to 10.2% the following year (NHL average was 9.3%) meaning that fully 70% of their goal increase due to shooting percentage was gone the following year. 70% is a huge number.
I expect Brule to contribute between 12-15 goals. More than that is bonus, but I don't want to build false expectations.
It's like I expect Cogliano to get between 15-20 goals, and I expect that I won't be disappointed this season with that expectation. I expect 70 points and 68 games from Hemsky. As a fan having reasonable expectations makes it so much more enjoyable, and also helps you feel amazing when the players exceed them (like in 2006).
@JW
Wish I could remember the games, but all I got is that both were before New Year's.
And I doubt the game p-b-p sheets would have the info that specific.
I hope his luck continues next year, as the Oil will benefit, but I don't expect it to. He'll also be in competition for ice time with the kids and might not even get 2PP time. I think the Oil kept him because his effort, physicality, willingness to go to the hard spots, defensive play are better than the other smurfs (sans Gagner).
Not because he's great goal-scorer. Sure, he has some sniper ability, but I don't think it can be relied on for cpnsistent 20+ goal seasons until we see more of Grule, and he sees consistently more ice time.
That's a pretty brutal error by Staples. I wonder if he'll assign himself an "E"?
Sorry, I went to school when no self-respecting macho teen went anywhere near Typing class. Gotta stop swinging for the fences and just make contact.
Refer to post #19. Don't swear & the sensors won't pick it up... (sh*t)
Seriously i dont know how many times i will say this but i hope they throw him on the point on the PP, especially on 5 on 3s!!
*shakes fist in the air*
Curse you, vile statisticians and your infernal dose of tempered reality! How am I supposed to stare dreamily out my iron-barred window from the comfort of my padded walled room, drooling at my certainty of Brule's 100 pt season next year?!?!?!?!
STOP USING EVIDENCE TO CRUSH PEOPLE'S DREAMS!!!
*rocks back and forth in the fetal position while sobbing uncontrollably and clutching a picture of Steve Kelly to his chest*
@ TigerUnderGlass:
That's cool; thanks for sharing!
@RossCreekNation
WTF?!?!! My post (#19) made it through in the long run!!
I thought you were referring to the F/PUCK usage that I opted for. But now I'm just elated!! However I'll keep the shyt steered clear of the ship, thx RC ;)
@TigerUnderGlass
I could swear that I heard Kurtis Foster will be wearing #26... not that his jersey is the one your friends are looking to buy, lol.
Personally, I just watch the games and observe rather than following the stats as they develop all season long. However this will be the first season that I'm watching the Oilers and being a part of ON as I just recently joined (cred to Blueblooded). So maybe I'll join in on the stats frenzied neuroticism of the obsessive Oilers faithful hockey geeks. Or I'll relax and enjoy my game night "cheep pints" and bitch about the fallout thereafter.
Who knows! Drunken posts most likely to follow though...
Brule should end up in the 18-22 goal range, imo.
Oh I'm sure that most guys know what they will wear, but they just started officially assigning numbers now. I got the impression vets were getting their numbers now with the younger guys to come soon. I do know for sure that the veterans they picked up are just getting their numbers now. (e.g., Vandermeer, Foster)
Yeah most of the guys want Hall or Eberle. I'm considering a Pajaarvi jersey, mostly just to buck the trend.
@TigerUnderGlass
I'm sure someone tweeted the Foster #... maybe it was premature, unofficial or whatever... doesn't matter (coulda been milhouse).
@RossCreekNation
Probably. If he knew his number he may well have told people, but it would have been unofficial apparently.
The only thing worse than JW using voodoo and statistics to predict a players upcoming goal production is guys throwing out guesses without any kind of reasoning to support it as though their own personal feeling actually means something. BTW, I predict 24 goals for Brule this year.
Good point here, Jonathan, on Brule's higher percentage on longer shots. He certainly might not drain those three point shots so well next season. Maybe, though, he'll get a bit more luck on his shorter shots.
Of course, Brule also is a player who helped the Oilers score a handful by driving the net, by screening, and that's a big part of what I mean by him getting the job done on the kill floor.
The kid has a nose for the net, it seems, and will face the consequences for that, helping the Oilers score some gritty goals and also getting some major bruises.
Jonathan, I like the work you do to support your ideas but you sure picked the wrong videos.
What I see is a guy who shoots quickly while there is a flow in front around the goalie. All 3 shots were either in the dot or high in the slot.
These are good places to shoot if you can get a slap shot off. The speed of the puck should give the goalie about the same time as a wrister from 5 feet closer.
All 3 shots look like good shots from a good shooter.
It's interesting that you picked the low year after the lockout for league goals per game average and the up year following. Last season that number took a dip again. Your frame of reference is biased.
@ OilBaron:
Hah! The same thing happened from 2008-09 to 2009-10, for both the NHL's best percetnage shooters and the NHL's worst percentage shooters. There's no bias at all; this is a recurring trend year after year.
Regression to the mean is a fact when discussing this particular stat.
@ knee deep in it:
I didn't pick the videos; I just grabbed the ones the NHL had listed as slap shots, so that everyone could examine the evidence and decide for themselves.
Oilbaron, you mentioned luck as part of scoring goals.
When you score a goal that an NHL goalie should stop almost all of the time, do you not consider that luck? Alot of Brule's slapshot goals are unscreened from a far distance (and at least 4 of them are from near the boards). Those just aren't goals you see NHL goalies giving up routinely, but Brule ended up getting a few of them last year.
http://oilers.nhl.tv/team/console.jsp?hlp=8471680&fr=false
3/26/2010 vs ANH 1/5/2010 vs PHX 12/30/2009 vs TOR 11/18/2009 vs COL
That's almost 25% of his goals scored on shots that you'd expect an NHL goaltender to stop.
Don't get me wrong, even if he misses all 4 of those, it's still 13G - 20A for 33pts which is a heck of an improvement and a big step up for him, but I think it's too easy to read into his goal totals and expect it to continue the way it did.
He may get 20+ goals next year, but he's probably going to do it with about 100 more shots on net than he had last year. If he can do that, it's an even bigger step up for him.
Like JW, I'd rather see a guy get more goals because he shoots more rather than a year he shoots at a higher %. If Brule gets 15 goals on 145 shots next year, I honestly believe it's a better season for him than this one was. Even though his goal scoring would be down, he'd be generating more in the good end of the ice and keeping it out of the bad.
MADJAM rates Oilers Offence No. 1 in the league before season has even started . They are upper eschilon with new additions make no mistake about it . Potential will turn into this years reality . Unfortuneately , same cannot be said for backend problems that will eat away at their overall efficiency and standings by year end .
Don't under estimate what the Oiler offence should be capable of this year . The only real rookie will be an outstanding player named Hall that has yet to show his metal in the company of men . Oilers offensively will be as dominant as any other upper eschilon team , if not more so .
Now if they play a P.M.O. (Perpetual Motiom Offence ) teams will be scrambling to try and defend against the expected offensive on slaught the Oilers will be throwing at them . The skies the limit with their speed and talent .
All it says to me is Brule has to shoot the puck more and be put in situations to succeed like top 6 minutes and some pp time.