Flames Scoring Chances - Game 41 versus Vancouver

Kent Wilson
January 05 2011 10:42PM

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 20595

Team Period Time Note CGY Opponent  
VAN 1 18:51 Kesler goal 4 12 13 28 34 40 1 5 14 17 21 23 5v5
CGY 1 16:56   5 6 12 13 34 40 1 2 3 13 26 27 5v5
CGY 1 16:01   4 8 20 28 34   1 5 17 22 23 33 4v5
VAN 1 14:43   5 6 17 25 34   1 2 3 10 14 26 4v5
VAN 1 14:29   5 6 17 25 34   1 2 3 10 14 26 4v5
VAN 1 13:12   12 13 28 33 34 40 1 4 17 21 36 41 5v5
VAN 1 3:49 Bieksa goal 5 6 11 15 16 34 1 2 3 13 26 27 5v5
VAN 1 3:26   6 12 13 28 34 40 1 2 3 14 22 33 5v5
CGY 1 3:15   4 12 13 28 34 40 1 2 3 14 22 33 5v5
CGY 1 2:22   5 6 8 17 25 34 1 4 15 36 41 49 5v5
VAN 2 13:16   4 12 13 28 34 40 1 2 3 13 26 27 5v5
VAN 2 12:29   4 18 20 26 28 34 1 5 14 22 23 33 5v5
VAN 2 10:34 Sedin goal 4 12 13 28 34 40 1 2 3 14 22 33 5v5
CGY 2 6:21   4 5 12 17 18 34 1 2 3 14 27   5v4
CGY 3 18:27   7 8 25 33 34 40 1 5 10 21 23 27 5v5
CGY 3 18:23   7 13 25 33 34 40 1 4 10 21 23 27 5v5
CGY 3 17:11   4 7 8 12 17 34 1 4 15 36 41 49 5v5
CGY 3 17:03   4 7 8 12 17 34 1 4 15 36 41 49 5v5
CGY 3 14:12   4 18 20 26 28 34 1 2 3 15 36 49 5v5
CGY 3 13:55   4 18 20 26 28 34 1 2 3 15 36 49 5v5
CGY 3 10:08   7 18 20 26 33 34 1 5 13 23 26 27 5v5
VAN 3 4:27   4 8 17 28 34   1 5 17 22 23 33 4v5
CGY 3 0:11 Jackman goal 7 11 15 16 33 34 1 2 3 15 36 49 5v5

 

# Player EV PP SH
4 J. BOUWMEESTER 18:48 5 4 3:35 1 0 2:00 1 1
5 M. GIORDANO 20:13 2 1 1:30 1 0 1:59 0 2
6 C. SARICH 18:25 2 2 0:00 0 0 1:59 0 2
7 A. PARDY 14:16 6 0 0:09 0 0 0:00 0 0
8 B. MORRISON 13:56 4 0 1:22 0 0 2:03 1 1
11 M. BACKLUND 10:14 1 1 1:54 0 0 0:00 0 0
12 J. IGINLA 18:12 4 5 3:51 1 0 0:00 0 0
13 O. JOKINEN 13:02 3 5 2:50 0 0 0:00 0 0
15 T. JACKMAN 9:56 1 1 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
16 T. KOSTOPOULOS 10:04 1 1 0:22 0 0 0:33 0 0
17 R. BOURQUE 13:19 3 0 3:13 1 0 3:08 0 3
18 M. STAJAN 13:14 3 1 0:53 1 0 0:00 0 0
20 C. GLENCROSS 12:55 3 1 0:35 0 0 0:51 1 0
25 D. MOSS 12:12 3 0 1:23 0 0 1:23 0 2
26 A. KOTALIK 10:21 3 1 2:55 0 0 0:00 0 0
28 R. REGEHR 17:24 3 6 1:36 0 0 2:00 1 1
33 A. BABCHUK 10:57 4 1 2:18 0 0 0:00 0 0
34 M. KIPRUSOFF 49:20 11 7 4:36 1 0 3:59 1 3
40 A. TANGUAY 13:23 4 5 2:52 0 0 0:00 0 0

 

Period Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
1 4 6 3 4 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0
2 1 3 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 8 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Totals 13 10 11 7 1 0 0 0 1 3 0 0

 

Head to head Ice

Corsi

Face-offs

A very odd game this evening. The Canucks came out fast and built a 6-2 chance lead and 2-0 differential on the board. Then they sat on their lead for the rest of the game. The Flames responded by running up the shot clock, but almost exclusively with shots from non-scoring areas on the ice. They titled the ice a bit more in the third and got some chances, but it was a bit late by then.

Calgary's various underlying numbers were pretty decent thanks to palying-to-score effect across the board...except for the big guns, who struggled despite chasing a team who laid back all night. Jarome Iginla somehow ended up underwater in terms of both possession and scoring chances and that's despite seeing 10 o-zone face-offs to 3 d-zone draws at ES. That's flat out awful. Jokinen and Tanguay weren't much better, altough they were broken up for part of the contest.

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Former Nations Overlord. Current Fn contributor and curmudgeon For questions, complaints, criticisms, etc contact Kent @ kent.wilson@gmail. Follow him on Twitter here.
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#1 Domebeers.com
January 06 2011, 10:13AM
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Rob Kerr was on the radio going on and on about how the shot totals vindicate the coach and his system (somehow, it's hard to follow Kerrs logic when he is shilling for the team).

It was good to hear you come on and talk about how the score of a game impacts shot totals. Someone should tell Rob, but I suspect he knows.

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#2 Rain Dogs
January 06 2011, 10:49AM
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I've rarely come away from a game so deluded by stats. This only furthers my appreciation for the work you put in Kent, in breaking the surface of this shots for/against quagmire.

I believe the shots last night were not indicative of the game, which team played better or trends moving forward. We outshot the Canucks 44-21, more than two-one and let's be honest, the Canucks made the win look easy. We CANNOT believe that "if we just keep playing like this, we'll turn the corner"... That's bullshit. We CAN'T score! I don't understand it, but we just didn't make it hard enough for Luongo.

So it brings up these questions:

-If volume is not substantially correlated with goals (as Calgary seems to prove night-in and out) then is skill or quality the distinction? Are the Flames just not skilled/creative enough?

-If volume is substantially forced by playing to the score effects, then does shot volume have any effect on goals more than the score itself?

-If PTTS and quality influence goals together, then what concrete conclusions can we take from raw shots?

-If raw shots don't offer concrete conclusions, then are all raw shot stats only approximations (at best) for play (ie sv%). I've long had a theory that playing for poor teams like Florida actually HELP sv%. Luongo, Vokoun, Anderson, Clemmenson.... ... Jbo? Their best years are in Florida on a team that often "struggled defensively". Coincidence?

FLA 'allow' TONS of shots against every year. Scorer effects? High volume/low quality? Who knows?

What I DO know, is ever other opportunity the 'nucks had last night was dangerous. They GOT the 'puck luck' with two deflected shots in 21 that we couldn't get in 44! That game looked EASY for the 'nucks.

What goalie was better last night? What defense was better last night?

Can one honestly convince themselves it was Luongo and the Flames "d"... I'd doubt that.

The Canucks forwards looked DEADLY last night, and they didn't even look that inspired, our players looked inspired, but pathetic.

Isn't something very wrong when Jackman scoring again, is now shifting to a negative? The fact that it is a beacon of our futility?

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#5 Tach
January 06 2011, 02:35PM
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@Kent Wilson

I don't know what your impression is of these things, but mine was that the shot numbers (including Corsi/Fenwick) were inflated by the playing to the score effects as it appeared the Flames were chasing more often than not.

According to Objective NHL though, they haven't been. See this link (http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2010/12/holiday-data-dump.html) which shows the Flames are a net positive at EV with the score close. Their crappy goal differential is driven by their horrendous Shooting (6.3% - blech).

Normally the line on this stuff is that it will all balance out in the end, but I have the same impression as Lawrence - that while the Flames tend to be able to generate possession, they have a really hard time converting possession into scoring chances and that is the real culprit in their crap shooting percentage.

What is the quickest way to be able to get all the scoring chance spreadsheets in one search or something. I have a horrible time trying to find them to sift through them all to try and sort out a conversion rate.

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#6 Rain Dogs
January 06 2011, 02:43PM
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@Kent Wilson

But it hasn't been just one night. We saw it vs the Islanders, we've seen it numerous times this season.

We're 22nd in the league in GF/G and sinking

We're 14 in the league in shots/game.

Our team shooting % is 29th in the league @ 8.2%

I'd be willing to bet that those numbers would be far worse over the last 20-25 games.

It may be an outlier for the league, but I don't think it is for this team. We've been like this for three years haven't we? Unable to score...

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