The Anatomy of a Streak

Pat Steinberg
February 10 2011 03:27PM

This is our first try at FlamesNation trying out some audio to go along with our regular content.  Kent Wilson joined me this afternoon on Sportsnet Radio FAN 960 to hone in on what's going on with the Calgary Flames over the last month or so.  They're red hot and they've fought their way into the eight seed in the Western Conference.  So how do things like good fortune and bounces play into what we've seen?  Kent helps me explore the issue.


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We'll be doing more of these type things as time goes on and as we experiment with different audio platforms. Today, Kent gets into percentages, how they've effected teams on runs before, and how they're playing into a 15-3-3 record for Calgary in their last 21 games.

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Pat Steinberg can be heard daily on the Fan960 in Calgary at can be read at the FAN 960. Born and raised in Calgary, Steinberg considers himself a huge fan of all sports including the CFL, MMA and 13 round bare knuckle boxing matches. Follow Steinberg on Twitter at www.twitter.com/Fan960Steinberg.
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#1 Kent Wilson
February 10 2011, 04:42PM
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Good stuff, thanks Pat.

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#2 Nathan
February 10 2011, 11:50PM
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Thumbs up for audio

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#3 Marcus
February 10 2011, 11:59PM
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Podcast or blog? Can I read the transcript?

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#4 FireOnIce
February 11 2011, 12:44AM
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I see Will Ferrell streaking, but all I really see is Jokinen's head on a naked body, shouting about streaking through the quad, to the old gymnasium. In Finnish.

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#6 Someguy
February 11 2011, 08:29AM
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Kent, Pat,

Interesting statistical commentary. Have you gents worked out where all of the NHL teams are with respect to the summation of shooting and save percentage? I ran some numbers last night and the flames are somewhere around the 0.98 mark which means that even given the latest hot streak where they are 1.04, they still are statistically below average (which bodes well I suppose). Interestingly, Calgary tends to outshoot their opponent by a larger margin than some "elite" teams like Vancouver, which begs the question, is Vancouver (and some other teams) as good as their point total suggests?

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#7 B
February 11 2011, 08:32AM
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@Someguy

...I know you didn't ask me, but here's my take. I think that although Vancouver might not outshoot their opponents by as lofty a margin as Calgary, they are in possesion of the puck alot longer (ie better puck handling defencemen and forwards cycling in the corner, well the Sedins ;) )

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#8 B
February 11 2011, 08:33AM
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...would the Leafs trade Kaberle for Connolly (Centre/BUF) straight up, anyone?

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#9 Kent Wilson
February 11 2011, 08:40AM
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Someguy wrote:

Kent, Pat,

Interesting statistical commentary. Have you gents worked out where all of the NHL teams are with respect to the summation of shooting and save percentage? I ran some numbers last night and the flames are somewhere around the 0.98 mark which means that even given the latest hot streak where they are 1.04, they still are statistically below average (which bodes well I suppose). Interestingly, Calgary tends to outshoot their opponent by a larger margin than some "elite" teams like Vancouver, which begs the question, is Vancouver (and some other teams) as good as their point total suggests?

Actually, if you're interested in this sort of thing, take a look at Objective NHL:

http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/01/ev-data-for-games-1-692.html

What you'll see there is scoring/shots/possession with the score tied for all teams (see tab at the bottom). This eliminates playing to score effects, which tend to skew things in favor of clubs that trail a lot.

Flames had a corsi ratio of .526 with the score tied last time the stats were tallied. Vancouver was .565. So, yeah, they're elite.

As for other teams, take a look at the list. DAL, as I mentioned on the radio, is a big, fat phony this year for example. If the Flames somehow make the dance, it would be great if they could face the Stars in the first round.

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#10 icedawg_42
February 11 2011, 09:32AM
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Good stuff! Tangibly, how big a delta is .04? What I'm saying, is what kind of impact would you think, if the percentage was to correct itself to 1.00 in a very short time (say 5 games)...in other words, is 1.04 really THAT good?

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#11 backburner
February 11 2011, 09:38AM
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@B

Kaberle -> Connolly straight up?

It's rumored the Leafs are asking way too much for Kaberle (A roster player, a prospect and a first Pick) which is way to high for a rental player; however, defencemen seem to have extreme market value right now, and they could get more for Kaberle than expected. I don't think Burke wants trade Kabs for another UFA. Although it could make sense if there were more to the package... such as conditional picks.

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#12 Kent Wilson
February 11 2011, 09:54AM
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icedawg_42 wrote:

Good stuff! Tangibly, how big a delta is .04? What I'm saying, is what kind of impact would you think, if the percentage was to correct itself to 1.00 in a very short time (say 5 games)...in other words, is 1.04 really THAT good?

Yup, 104 is big when it comes to the percentages. It's not outrageous in that pretty much every team goes through a similar run in the short term every year, but it's not something that will last forever.

As for correction back down to 100...it all depends on what kind of shot volume/chances percentages you're generating at ES and how you're special teams are. So 100 for the DAL Stars would be much more impactful than 100 for teams like CGY and NSH who generate enough at ES to be competitive.

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#13 Kent Wilson
February 11 2011, 09:55AM
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@backburner

TOR could use Connolly, that's for sure. They just one capable NHL center as things stand.

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#14 Marcus
February 11 2011, 10:23AM
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FireOnIce wrote:

I see Will Ferrell streaking, but all I really see is Jokinen's head on a naked body, shouting about streaking through the quad, to the old gymnasium. In Finnish.

Hei Hei Snoop! Snoopaloop!! Rikkki tikkki likkki streakkki!!!

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#15 Marcus
February 11 2011, 10:26AM
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Pat Steinberg wrote:

One step at a time! We'll hire the stenographer at a later date.

There's an app for that. Dragon dictation.

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#16 mikeH
February 11 2011, 10:49AM
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Maybe I'm just technologically challenged, but would it be possible to get this in an mp3 download so that I can throw it on my player? I'm rarely in a position where I can listen in front of the computer, so usually I catch up on these things either in the car or on the hoof. I mostly ask because I like the Overtime bits you guys do and definitely want to support the enterprise.

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#17 B
February 11 2011, 11:00AM
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@backburner

...Connolly is a pass first centre and he is American, it's just a rumor I heard.

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#18 B
February 11 2011, 11:04AM
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@backburner

...yeah, UFA fro UFA might not seem like it would make much sense, but it fills immediate gaps, and Connolly isn't having the best season and I'm sure Burke would be willing to slightly overpay to keep him in the fold (think Stajan type money, although I think Connolly is a much better player).

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#19 B
February 11 2011, 11:13AM
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@backburner

...another reason I think Kaberle will be traded for a Centre is to try and snap Kessel out of the slump he is in. Who knows what will happen.

...I don't know why Versteegs name is being thrown around in trade talk, he is on pace for 20 goals and he is an RFA is a couple years. Anybody?

...I don't think Giguere will get traded, his salary even for a rental is huge. Any team in the playoff race having goalie problems? Detroit?

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#20 B
February 11 2011, 11:23AM
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...haven't heard anything on Langkow in a while? Is he done for sure and retiring?

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#21 everton fc
February 11 2011, 11:29AM
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I think Feaster's handling of Glencross will provide us with lots of insight - insight as to whether Feaster can move this team in a different direction.

I think Darryl would have given Glencross a 3-5 year deal similar to Stajan's. That's just my hunch. Is he worth this much? Stajan isn't, either, is he...

I think losing a potential 20 goal-scorer (if he becomes exclusively and permanently a 2nd liner) is a move Feaster really needs to think about. Feaster needs to talk to Glencross and his agent, to determine where they stand. If the sides are far apart, we may need to move him now, rather than wait until the seasons done, when his value may rise, but the return becomes less....

Would anyone here pay Glencross the same as Stajan? Or Bourque, for that matter??

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#22 Monaertchi Gaudnett
February 11 2011, 01:06PM
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I think GlenX is worth more than Stajan, and neither is worth what Stajan is getting.

As for Bourque, I really don't know what his worth is. Is this year an anomoly or the norm?

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#23 backburner
February 11 2011, 02:20PM
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I think Feaster would be crazy to keep Hagman over Glencross, but having that said, if he plays his cards right, he could get good return for him.

@B

I totally agree with the Kaberle for Connolly deal, but I think Burke's just to high on Kabs.

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