Backlund, Berglund, and what progress looks like

Robert Cleave
March 16 2011 01:10PM

 

One subject that's never been far from the surface for Flames' fans has been the utilization of Mikael Backlund.  Calgary's one NHL-ready youngster has spent most of the year playing 4th liners to good effect, even as a segment of the fan base advocated he be moved up the scale ahead of Stajan, Jokinen or Morrison at varying junctures of the year.

I don't doubt that a lot of that sentiment is as a result of the shortcomings, perceived or real, of the three aforementioned gents, but there's also been a sentiment that Backlund was ready to blossom into a proper top six forward.

I suspect last night's dire performance against the Coyotes might have chilled that sort of talk for a few folks, but rather than rag on Backlund for a bad night when the coach had to throw him into a situation beyond his current abilities, I want to shift the focus to what might lie ahead. To do so, I'm going to briefly examine one of his fellow Swedes' progress through his first three years in the league as a comparative.

Patrik Berglund is likely one of the cornerstones for the Blues' ongoing rebuild. The 22 year old center is in the final year of his ELC, with RFA status awaiting him this summer. He was drafted 25th in 2006, pretty much in line with Backlund's selection at 24 one year later. After a flashy debut in 08/09 where he finished with 21 G and 27 A in 76 games, Berglund appeared to fall back last season, managing only 13G 13A. This year, he's having a good scoring season, tallying 18G and 27A through 69 games.

There's always more to a player's success than just boxcars, of course, and that's where my focus will be. If one only looked at points, there'd be the sense that Berglund was becoming a proper top sixer. That might yet happen, but there are a number of factors at play that have driven his totals beyond his actual contribution at EV.

What really struck me as I looked at the numbers is that through two coaches and nearly three full seasons in the NHL, Patrik Berglund's QComp and ZoneStarts relative to his teammates have remained in the same range. I set the filters at BTN for 40 games played for 08/09 + 09/10, 30 for this year, and 10 min TOI at EV:

  

  Rel Qcomp RelCorsi PDO ZS
  (1st=tough) (1st=best)   (1st=easiest)
         
         
2008/09 8 of 11 7 of 11 105.4 59.8, 2 of 11
         
2009/10 9 of 11 1 of 11 97.9 59.7, 1 of 11
         
2010/11 9 of 9 2 of 9 96.9 61.7, 1 of 9

 

So, what do we have? Berglund rode the PDO train pretty hard his first year to finish at 42GF/20GA at EV. His outshooting numbers really didn't justify his +/-, in other words. Andy Murray was pretty sensible in sheltering a first year player both in terms of competition and faceoff postion, even with several other relatively young players in his lineup.

Last season wasn't as fruitful in terms of boxcars, but at least one could argue that Berglund started moving the ball forward in terms of his actual play. He again got the easy pickings, but he outplayed his opposition only to fall victim to the percentages. His numbers in his second year in terms of EV scoring are actually right in line with Backlund's at EV. Berglund had 17 EV points in 71 games, averaging 11 EV minutes a game. Backlund has 17 EV points in 63 games, averaging just over 10 EV minutes a night with a PDO of 99.0 and a ZS number just under 57%, so, as I said, right in range. 

This season's numbers for Berglund strike me as a bit surprising. The Blues did have Jay McClement doing all the heavy lifting before his trade to Colorado, but Berglund is getting the easiest minutes possible. He's smoking his opposition again in terms of outshooting, and his total minutes are up as well, to 13:34 a game at EV.

He has 28 EV points so far this year in 69 games, so his scoring rate has moved from 1.25 PTS/60 to 1.70/60. Still, given his progress in terms of outshooting last year, I would have thought he'd be due for a slight uptick in responsibility, and at least until the McClement trade, it wasn't happening at all.

Now, when the subject of overall scoring comes up, Berglund has had the advantage of playing on a team that gave him worthwhile PP time, so Backlund's boxcars won't look as good in comparision, but his EV outshooting numbers aren't much different than Berglund's at the same point, and the Flames are a better team than the Blues have been the last few years, so any young player would have to expect to deal with more of a pecking order unless they were clearly elite from day one. 

The gist of all this is that even a team like St. Louis, one that's really asked younger guys to play more minutes due to financial circumstance, has been pretty careful with its top center prospect. Patrik Berglund likely won't have the training wheels fully taken off until next year, with three full NHL seasons under his belt.

Mikael Backlund, should he follow the same sort of sensible progression, should see an uptick in his EVTOI and responsibility to consistent third line levels next year along with more PP time, and then he really should be asked for more starting in 12/13. Until that point, even though it's easy to get caught up in the deficiences of the team right now, Brent Sutter's careful approach this year hasn't been out of line with what happens around the league. 

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Robert Cleave is a perpetually grumpy Winnipegger.
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#1 Gange
March 16 2011, 01:29PM
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Yes, you need to take time with the youngsters. Phoenix is a key example of this.

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#2 Kent Wilson
March 16 2011, 01:37PM
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I'd like to see Backlund get a bit more PP time, but I can't argue too much with the way Sutter has handled him this year otherwise (aside from that needless 6-game healthy scratch).

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#3 SmellOfVictory
March 16 2011, 01:44PM
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Awesome read. Nice to see a very useful comparable being looked at. I still think Backs looked fine on the 3rd line to start the year, but 4th line with PP time as Kent mentioned seems fine as well.

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#4 dawgbone
March 16 2011, 01:49PM
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Bah, play him 18 minutes per night. The Oilers are doing it and look where they are!

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#5 Gange
March 16 2011, 02:00PM
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dawgbone wrote:

Bah, play him 18 minutes per night. The Oilers are doing it and look where they are!

LOL. Exactly!

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#6 Domebeers.com
March 16 2011, 02:45PM
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Good article, RC. Although the more minutes Bowflex plays, the less minutes Stajan can...

/Threadjack on

How can a team with uniforms that look that good also rock those heritage classic monstrosities. 3rd jersey full time.

/Threadjack off

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#7 ultradub
March 16 2011, 02:45PM
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only caught the 3rd but i thought Backlund looked fantastic in the shifts i saw. looked like he was really driving his line.

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#8 Bob Cob
March 16 2011, 04:35PM
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dawgbone wrote:

Bah, play him 18 minutes per night. The Oilers are doing it and look where they are!

The Oilers young guys are good enough be there, thats the difference ,Backlund, career 3rd line centre at best, might was well start calling him Shawn Horcoff. I was at the game last night and no Flames player stood out, Iginla was invisible, the D was slow and the total lack of skill was apparent.

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#9 SmellOfVictory
March 16 2011, 05:04PM
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Bob Cob wrote:

The Oilers young guys are good enough be there, thats the difference ,Backlund, career 3rd line centre at best, might was well start calling him Shawn Horcoff. I was at the game last night and no Flames player stood out, Iginla was invisible, the D was slow and the total lack of skill was apparent.

I love how you're labelling the 21 year old who can drive possession against soft competition as a career 3rd liner. Give him a year or two before you get all uppity.

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#11 Tach
March 16 2011, 06:17PM
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Robert Cleave wrote:

I know this might make me a terrible person, but I'm always amused when fans of a team on a 9-10 year rebuilding program stop by to troll. Well done, sir.

Well, how many different ways are there to write "My team may suck, but wait until next year (I hope!)"?

Lord knows you can't fill the time watching the hockey.

Re Backlund - for all the flack he takes, if you even look at other recent Flames development projects in the forward ranks (Moss, Nystrom, Chucko, Boyd, Lombardi) his progress is pretty favourable. I think he will get to that 2nd line level, but it may be another year or two.

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#12 sheila
March 17 2011, 03:46PM
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I like Backlund , and I think he is better than a fourth line center, 2nd line center soon. Im sure. As he has more skill in one finger than Stajan has in his whole body. Although they are bringing him on slow, I understand that. The last game he looked better than most last half of game. Geme before that he looked awesome. I would also like to see him on PP and in shootouts. He is begiinning to show his puck carrying abilities whcih are better than Jokii. Oh well good luck Mikael, Go Flames

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