First Round targets: Matt Puempel

Kent Wilson
June 20 2011 01:05PM

 

 

 

Perhaps the most interesting of the prospects we've covered so far is Matt Puempel. The OHL's rookie of the year in 2009-10 after scoring 34 goals and 69 in 59 games, Puempel was considered a probable top-10 talent into the season before injuries and circumstances derailed things a bit. He still pops up in the first round on most lists, but unless someone goes off-board Puempel will most certainly be available when 13 rolls around.

As mentioned, Puempel hit the ball out of park in his rookie season for the Peterborough Petes with a PPG pace (1.25) that rivals many of the first round draft eligibles this year. Those numbers are notable in most circumstances, but outstanding for a guy who was 16 years-old when the season started in 2009.

A few things went south on Puempel this year though. Firstly, the Petes were terrible. They finished second last in the Eastern Division with a -103 goal differential (thus his own ghastly -33 rating). Only two other clubs in the entire league managed less goals than Peterborough's 195. On top of that, Puempel suffered a season ending hip injury that required surgery and limited him to just 55 games. 

His numbers in those games are bit conflicted as far as which way the arrows point. The Petes managed just 157 GF with Puempel in the line-up, meaning he accounted for an eye-popping 43.9% of the team's total offense. On the other hand, his ES and PP point split is one of the worst we've seen of prospects so far: 46.4% ES/ 47.8% PP (and 4 empty net points) meaning he was more reliant on the man advantage than anyone we've looked at so far. With the Pete's being such a weak sister this year (Puempel led the team in scoring despite playing 13 less games than second place Austin Watson) it's hard to know if the ES/PP split is an indictment of the player or simply a reflection of playing with next to no help. 

It's hard to ignore the percentage of team offense though. With most high-end kids hovering around the 30% mark in their draft years, Puempel was far more integral to his club's attack than most others. That said, maybe if the club was any good that wouldn't have been the case.

On the qualitative side of things, Corey Pronman had this to say about Puempel, whom he ranked 33rd overall:

 

Matt Puempel is one of the better goal-scoring prospects in this draft class, but one who after the shot/finishing tool has a lot of aspects that need to be fine-tuned. He has terrific mechanics and accuracy on a shot that is above-average and flashes plus potential. The word "quick release" is sometimes overused in scouting circles, but with Puempel his release is something that separates him from other goal-scorers and his ability to get quality shots off in motion and without having to set his feet is a very desirable trait. He anticipates the play well coming out of his own zone and finding gaps in the offensive zone to slide into scoring position. His puck skills are solid with the ability to handle the puck well in tight and he displays solid passing ability.

Puempel's skating tool grades as below-average with average speed when he gets going in a straight line. While he does show decent balance and grit on the puck, he has to put on a fair amount of strength to continue playing his style of game at the next level. He has the hockey sense to play a decent defensive game, but like most young players, that aspect of his game isn't as consistent as one would like it to be.

 

Strengths: NHL caliber shot, good offensive instincts

Weaknesses: strength, defensive game, poor skating

Puempel's injuries, poor team and mix of abilities has him at the bottom of the first round according to many consensus outfits. NHL central scouting had him 28th amongst NA skaters while ISS ranked him 29th overall. As mentioned, Pronman had Puempel 33rd.

It's hard to ignore the scoring he put up as a 16-year old and the high percentage of points he scored for his team this year. On the other hand, it sounds like Puempel has some holes in his game and the spectre of a major hip injury is one that will likely hang over him at the draft (although the same thing didn't hurt Brett Connolly's stock much last June).

Frankly, he seems like a guy who might be had in the second round which is probably where the Flames should target him.

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Former Nations Overlord. Current Fn contributor and curmudgeon For questions, complaints, criticisms, etc contact Kent @ kent.wilson@gmail. Follow him on Twitter here.
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#1 Dano0049
June 20 2011, 01:35PM
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If we had a second late first round or he is available with one of our 2nd round picks I'd be happy to have him on our beloved Flames but not with the 13th pick. The thought I have with him, and with the draft in general, is you can teach a guy to skate better and get stronger but you can't teach scoring touch, height and grit.

My list for the 13th pick includes: Mark McNeill, Zach Philips, Joel Armia, Tyler Biggs.

Use one of the second rounders for a defenseman and the other for another forward.

Off topic now, has anyone around the Nation heard anything about Henrik Karlsson? I hear, on the Fan 960, Tanguay is getting closer to signing, that is a HUGE piece to next year's puzzle.

Can't wait to listen to you guys at the draft should be interesting for the team. Go luck.

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#2 Dano0049
June 20 2011, 01:36PM
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I meant "Good luck!"

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#3 Dano0049
June 20 2011, 01:42PM
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Never mind, just read via Twitter, Henrik Karlsson signed for two years, 850K and 875K respectively. SWEET!!! Get Kipper some more games off. Congrats to the Calgary Tower!

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#4 Colin
June 20 2011, 05:58PM
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Pass, not a big fan of hip injuries, especially in Hockey where your hips are HUGE factor on skating. I mean he's still young and recovery is a lot better when you are younger rather than older, however to be getting those kinda serious injuries that young is a really bad sign.

At 13 there is MUCH better players to take, now at 45 and if our doctors got a REAL good look at his medical records than that might be a different story.

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#5 Austin
June 20 2011, 06:22PM
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@Colin

I'd be for sure willing to use one of our second rounders on this guy. Also, do you think there's an option to pick a goalie in the second round? I know there aren't any goalies ranked in the first but I've heard of several goalies ranked in the second round including both of the Gibsons. Or would we not consider this with the improvement of Irving and upcoming Ortio?

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#6 Justin Azevedo
June 20 2011, 06:25PM
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I'm all in on Mika and Mark. If neither is available with the 13th, Feaster should probably just eat the pick.

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#7 Colin
June 20 2011, 07:14PM
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Austin wrote:

I'd be for sure willing to use one of our second rounders on this guy. Also, do you think there's an option to pick a goalie in the second round? I know there aren't any goalies ranked in the first but I've heard of several goalies ranked in the second round including both of the Gibsons. Or would we not consider this with the improvement of Irving and upcoming Ortio?

I don't see the need to pick a goalie in this draft with the little draft picks we have. Irving and Ortio are gonna play the AHL, Keetley and Lamerioux(sp?) can play in the ECHL if they are retained in some way, With Karlsson and Kipper here we have enough Goaltending and if the unthinkable happens with Injuries there are so many UFA goalies this year there is a good chance we could sign one or two midway through the season. Plus there are always journeymen goalies that never got signed, trades for goalies and Europeans that can fill holes. We have much GREATER need in both forwards and D that we need to focus on at the draft.

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