Black Box: Week 15

Robert Vollman
January 16 2012 09:21AM

 

 

As expected they got their free win against Anaheim and split the home games against legitimate NHL teams, although the Ducks did come within a single shot of their best road shot differential of the season (+5).  Of course the big story is the surprise return of Mike Cammalleri and the even bigger surprise that Calgary actually had a good draft pick to throw in to get him.

This week they'll be on the road, but it's not as bad as it sounds, because they're in Edmonton and San Jose – rinks where even Anaheim can win (all but one of their road wins are in one of those arenas). If Cammo can somehow help them fluke out a revenge victory over Darryl in Los Angeles it could be a great week.

OZQoC Charts (explanation)

Mike Cammalleri's role has been similar to Alex Tanguay's, but with more of a lean towards the offensive zone – certainly more of a top-six job than Rene Bourque's occasional flirtations.

Surprisingly Lance Bouma has been playing against top lines, although in a more offensive-minded capacity.

Even-Strength Scoring (explanation)

Before looking at how Mike Cammalleri fits in at even-strength, let's take a moment to study the case of Olli Jokinen. After five weeks his possession rate was 50.7%, then down to 46.7% after ten weeks and just 45.1% now. Obviously linemate Curtis Glencross has had a similar tumble, one that can't be explained by a change in usage since they've both been facing top competition all year. The reason for their gradual demise could be their increased playing time with Jarome Iginla, something that will hopefully come to an end with Mike Cammalleri in town.

Speaking of Cammalleri, he gives the Flames a fifth forward scoring at the top-six level of 1.8 (once Tanguay is back), and a full six once David Moss returns.  Both his even-strength usage and performance is quite similar to Alex Tanguay's.


Forward        ESP/60 CEF CEA  CE% SCF SCA SC%   GF   GA    G%
Lance Bouma      1.4   60  43 58.1% 22 14 61.5% 2.79 0.00 100.0%
Matt Stajan      1.1   56  47 54.2% 14 13 52.1% 1.77 2.88  38.1%
David Moss       1.9   55  49 53.0% 11 14 43.3% 1.85 1.48  55.6%
Mikael Backlund  0.9   55  49 52.9% 17 15 51.9% 1.65 3.15  34.4%
Lee Stempniak    1.6   54  49 52.2% 16 14 51.9% 2.36 2.98  44.2%
Tim Jackman      1.0   51  49 51.0% 12 13 49.7% 1.18 2.95  28.6%
Blake Comeau     0.7   51  50 50.2% 13 12 50.8% 0.80 2.52  24.1%
Tom Kostopoulos  0.9   48  49 49.9% 12 12 50.9% 1.61 2.95  35.3%
Mike Cammalleri  1.9   50  53 49.7%  5 18 20.0% 1.67 3.28  44.9%
Alex Tanguay     1.8   50  54 48.0% 19 15 55.8% 2.48 2.62  48.6%
Jarome Iginla    2.1   50  58 46.2% 17 17 49.3% 2.55 2.63  49.2%
Brendan Morrison 1.5   46  54 45.7% 15 16 48.1% 2.31 2.31  50.0%
Blair Jones      1.1   40  48 45.6% 21 16 57.1% 1.14 1.71  40.0%
Olli Jokinen     2.2   48  59 45.1% 15 17 46.5% 3.06 2.88  51.5%
Curtis Glencross 2.3   47  58 45.0% 14 17 45.9% 2.87 3.07  48.3%
Greg Nemisz      0.0   34  43 44.5%  4  9 33.3% 0.00 0.00   0.0%
P-L. Leblond     0.0   46  58 43.9%  8 12 40.0% 4.16 0.00 100.0%
Roman Horak      1.3   40  52 43.7% 13 12 50.9% 2.02 1.44  58.4%
Paul Byron       1.0   34  52 39.7% 11 11 50.0% 1.65 0.66  71.4%
Raitis Ivanans   0.0   27  65 29.4%  5 27 16.7% 0.00 5.41   0.0%

The Flames have been lucky with Roman Horak and Paul Byron so far, but that won't hold up long-term. They need guys like Alex Tanguay, Brendan Morrison, David Moss and yes even Matt Stajan back soon.

Lots of good news on defense, depending on how you look at it. For example, Anton Babchuk is no longer their worst defenseman, but it's less of a case of his climbing his way out of the stinker than the Flames actually finding someone even worse. In Clay Wilson's defense he has been getting buried in his own end.

Also good news that Scott Hannan has finally stopped his downward skid, not because Mark Giordano's back but because he's been out of the line-up after a tough hit against Boston.


Defense        ESP/60 CEF CEA  CE% SCF SCA SC%   GF   GA    G%
Brett Carson     0.0   70  41 63.4% 19 11 63.6% 0.00 5.41   0.0%
T.J. Brodie      0.8   49  45 52.4% 15 12 54.5% 2.56 2.18  54.0%
Cory Sarich      0.3   50  47 51.3% 14 10 57.9% 2.01 2.01  50.0%
Derek Smith      0.8   50  50 49.9% 15 13 52.3% 2.08 1.82  53.3%
Chris Butler     0.6   50  54 48.2% 16 16 49.8% 2.38 2.46  49.2%
Jay Bouwmeester  0.6   50  54 48.0% 15 17 47.8% 2.21 2.69  45.1%
Mark Giordano    0.6   48  57 46.0% 14 14 49.2% 2.09 2.39  46.7%
Joe Piskula      0.0   50  59 45.9% 19 14 56.7% 0.00 5.54   0.0%
Scott Hannan     0.4   44  56 44.0% 14 17 44.4% 2.38 3.06  43.8%
Anton Babchuk    0.9   38  60 39.0%  8 17 32.9% 1.48 1.78  45.4%
Clay Wilson      0.0   29  48 37.5%  5 12 28.6% 0.00 0.00   0.0%

Special teams (explanation)

The best part of getting Mike Cammalleri is a chance to improve their power play before everyone realizes that it's been propped up to the league-average level by good luck (the second best part is not having to do a lot of research for next year's entry draft). Between Cammalleri, Anton Babchuk and Mikael Backlund they are threatening to have a legitimately adequate power play.


Player              TOI/GP PTS/60 CE/60
Clay Wilson          2.5     0.0  130.7
Anton Babchuk        2.0     3.8   99.5
Mike Cammalleri      3.0     2.6   95.3
Mikael Backlund      1.1     3.5   89.8
David Moss           1.3     0.0   88.7
Roman Horak          0.6     0.0   84.7
Lee Stempniak        1.8     2.2   79.7
Jay Bouwmeester      2.6     3.5   78.4
Jarome Iginla        3.3     3.9   77.2
Olli Jokinen         3.1     4.7   76.3
Chris Butler         0.8     3.4   74.6
Alex Tanguay         3.4     4.8   73.4
Blair Jones          0.5     0.0   70.9
Tim Jackman          0.5     0.0   70.0
Mark Giordano        3.3     2.9   69.4
T.J. Brodie          2.0     3.7   67.3
Derek Smith          1.4     5.2   65.1
Curtis Glencross     2.0     6.2   64.5
Brendan Morrison     1.3     3.7   64.0
Blake Comeau         0.8     0.0   59.3

I imagine Jay Bouwmeester was the first person to welcome Mark Giordano back to the line-up, especially with Scott Hannan out. He's been logging some serious short-handed minutes, and performing admirably well. The Calgary Flames really do need another top-notch defensive blueliner.


Player           TOI/GP CE/60
Jay Bouwmeester   3.7    86.4
Scott Hannan      2.7    79.8
Chris Butler      2.4    90.2
Curtis Glencross  2.2    87.0
Mark Giordano     2.1    89.7
Lee Stempniak     1.7    74.3
David Moss        1.5   143.1
Tom Kostopoulos   1.3    85.7
Mike Cammalleri   1.1    69.0
Blake Comeau      1.0    73.3
Mikael Backlund   1.0    83.6
Alex Tanguay      0.9    70.3
Cory Sarich       0.6   111.7
Matt Stajan       0.6   139.5
Olli Jokinen      0.6    75.9
Blair Jones       0.5    64.0
Derek Smith       0.4    60.0
Brendan Morrison  0.3    95.5
Brett Carson      0.3   109.1
Roman Horak       0.3   115.2

Goaltending (explanation)

Two Quality Starts including a shut-out against the hapless Anaheim Ducks, but a single tough period while hosting Los Angeles capped off an otherwise solid week for Miikka Kiprusoff.


Goalie           GS QS   QS%  ESSV%
Miikka Kiprusoff 37 22  59.4%  .927
Leland Irving     4  3  75.0%  .909
Henrik Karlsson   5  1  20.0%  .904

Anyway, that's how it looks after 15 weeks.  Bourque is gone, Cammalleri is here, and Giordano's back.  With a little luck the Calgary Flames will be good enough in late February to justify moving Backlund and Brodie for some washed-up veterans with long-term contracts at the trade deadline. *rimshot*

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Rob Vollman of www.HockeyAbstract.com is a regular feature writer on ESPN Insider, co-author of Hockey Prospectus 2010-11 and 2011-12, and regular contributor to NHL Numbers, Flames Nation and Arctic Ice Hockey. Innovator of Player Usage Charts, Quality Starts, GVS (Goals Versus Salary), the Snepsts Projection System, and known for work in League Equivalencies (NHLE). Twitter: @robvollmanNHL
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#1 Kent Wilson
January 16 2012, 09:24AM
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The reason for their gradual demise could be their increased playing time with Jarome Iginla.

In case this strikes anyone as unusual, it should be noted that this is nothing new. Jarome has been sinking his line mates possession rate for at least two years now.

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#2 Bob in the Abbey
January 16 2012, 10:41AM
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I've heard that if more of the forwards get healthy, that we could be looking at our top 2 lines as this:

Tanguay-Cammalleri-Iginla Glencross-Jokinen-Moss

With Tangs and Cammy as line-mates of Iggy's, do you suspect their possession rate to drop as well or does that trio have the skill to actually raise it? I think the skill is there, what's uncertain is if they play up to that level.

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#3 ChinookArch
January 16 2012, 11:25AM
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I thought Moss was done for the season? When is expected back in the line up?

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#5 Emir
January 16 2012, 11:50AM
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You forgot to add if we are trading for washed up vets that we would throw in our first as well.

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#6 Willi P
January 16 2012, 12:28PM
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News on the Tanguay front has been pretty limited too. Anybody have any updates?

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#9 the-wolf
January 17 2012, 08:15AM
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Bob in the Abbey wrote:

I've heard that if more of the forwards get healthy, that we could be looking at our top 2 lines as this:

Tanguay-Cammalleri-Iginla Glencross-Jokinen-Moss

With Tangs and Cammy as line-mates of Iggy's, do you suspect their possession rate to drop as well or does that trio have the skill to actually raise it? I think the skill is there, what's uncertain is if they play up to that level.

In that case I would hope that Brent plays the TCI trio against 2nd line comp and the GJM trio as a shutdown against the 1st line comp.

@Vollman - I took it seriously. With this team, you never know.

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