Flames Scoring Chances - Game 71 versus Phoenix Coyotes

Kent Wilson
March 15 2012 09:45PM

 

 

 

Final: 4-1 W

Final Summary

Corsi

Head-to-head ice

Faceoffs

Scoring Chances for NHL Game Number 21058

Team Period Time Note CGY Opponent  
CGY 1 19:43 Baertschi goal 5 16 23 34 47 48 3 14 15 28 32 41 5v5
PHX 1 17:56 +1 13 20 23 26 27 34 3 12 32 41 43 89 5v5
PHX 1 16:49 +1 16 27 33 34 47 48 14 15 16 23 28 41 5v5
CGY 1 11:48 +1 5 12 13 20 34 40 15 16 23 28 41   5v4
CGY 1 9:36 +1 4 16 18 25 33 34 6 8 13 41 50 53 5v5
PHX 1 8:35 +1 5 12 13 20 23 34 3 19 22 32 37 41 5v5
PHX 1 6:01 +1 5 13 20 23 25 34 6 16 19 22 37 41 5v5
PHX 1 3:34 +1 5 12 18 23 34 40 8 13 23 41 50 53 5v5
PHX 1 1:12 +1 5 10 20 23 34   6 22 28 37 41 53 4v5
CGY 2 18:00 +1 5 13 20 23 25 34 6 22 37 41 53 89 5v5
CGY 2 16:39 +1 16 27 33 34 47 48 6 8 12 41 43 53 5v5
CGY 2 14:44 Iginla goal 5 12 18 23 34 40 13 19 23 41 50 53 5v5
CGY 2 13:47 +2 13 20 25 27 33 34 6 19 37 41 50 53 5v5
PHX 2 2:24 Ekman-Larsson goal 6 13 20 23 25 34 6 13 19 23 41 50 5v5
CGY 2 1:21 +2 5 12 18 23 34 40 13 16 19 23 41 50 5v5
PHX 2 1:12 +2 5 12 18 23 34 40 13 16 19 23 41 50 5v5
PHX 3 18:58 +2 4 6 10 16 34   3 13 19 23 41 50 4v5
PHX 3 17:20 +2 5 12 18 23 25 34 3 8 32 41 43 89 5v5
PHX 3 16:15 +2 16 27 33 34 47 51 6 14 15 28 41 53 5v5
PHX 3 9:27 +2 4 6 13 20 25 34 16 19 22 23 37 41 5v5
PHX 3 6:40 +2 4 6 10 18 34   6 41 43 53 89   4v4
CGY 3 5:04 Tanguay goal 4 20 23 34 40   3 13 19 23 41 50 4v5
CGY 3 2:06 +3 5 16 23 34 47 48 6 8 28 41 43 53 5v5

 

# Player EV PP SH
4 J. BOUWMEESTER 21:39 1 2 0:36 0 0 2:14 1 1
5 M. GIORDANO 17:09 5 5 2:43 1 0 3:32 0 1
6 C. SARICH 21:09 0 3 0:00 0 0 1:40 0 1
10 B. COMEAU 12:41 0 1 0:50 0 0 1:51 0 2
12 J. IGINLA 18:16 2 4 2:29 1 0 0:00 0 0
13 O. JOKINEN 14:11 2 5 2:29 1 0 0:00 0 0
16 T. KOSTOPOULOS 13:02 4 2 0:00 0 0 2:00 0 1
18 M. STAJAN 15:28 3 4 0:50 0 0 1:08 0 0
20 C. GLENCROSS 10:43 2 5 2:29 1 0 2:56 1 1
23 S. HANNAN 18:29 5 7 0:00 0 0 3:12 1 1
25 D. MOSS 9:21 3 4 0:00 0 0 0:53 0 0
26 G. DESBIENS 10:17 0 1 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
27 D. SMITH 12:47 2 3 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
33 A. BABCHUK 11:31 3 2 0:34 0 0 0:00 0 0
34 M. KIPRUSOFF 50:43 8 11 3:19 1 0 5:19 1 2
40 A. TANGUAY 14:00 2 2 2:45 1 0 1:50 1 0
47 S. BAERTSCHI 13:38 3 2 0:50 0 0 0:00 0 0
48 G. NEMISZ 11:22 3 1 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0
51 R. HORAK 11:05 0 1 0:00 0 0 0:00 0 0

 

Period Totals EV PP 5v3 PP SH 5v3 SH
1 3 6 2 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
2 5 2 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
3 2 5 1 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0
4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Totals 10 13 8 11 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0

Flames spent a lot of time in their own end, particularly in the latter half of the game, but they weren't grossly outchanced in aggregate. The bounces are definitely going Calgary's way right now and the team needs to ride the wave as long as possible. The top guys are still being routinely outplayed in terms of shots and chances, but the hockey gods continue to favor them.

It's a bit uncanny. The club just needs it to hold out for another 10 games.

Also, nice game for Baertschi. That first goal was a beauty.

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Former Nations Overlord. Current Fn contributor and curmudgeon For questions, complaints, criticisms, etc contact Kent @ kent.wilson@gmail. Follow him on Twitter here.
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#1 Cal Mavic
March 15 2012, 10:32PM
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Baertschi will be playing in edmonton, YAY!

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#2 Rob
March 16 2012, 09:42AM
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The goal was a beaut for sure, but Yandle served it up for him on a silver platter. I really don't know what he was thinking.

Even so, I've seen many a Flame miss wide open chances like those, so kudos to him being able to stay cool and collected. It's nice having something to look forward to for a change.

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#3 Tach
March 16 2012, 10:02AM
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Man, Bouwmeester goes -13, 26% (7 out of 27) on Corsi, but only gives up 2 scoring chances in 21 EV minutes of ice time. That's 5.7 SC/60 EV minutes. The team rate overall (with Bouw's minutes included) was 13.2. The rate without Bouwmeester on the ice was ~16.5 SC/60 EV minutes. (8 chances over ~29 minutes).

This data leads me to two thoughts:

1. Bouwmeester has gotten a lot more credit this season in various outlets. I think some of this has to do with Regehr not being on the team. His offence hasn't picked up that much, but when you look at numbers like this you see why he ought to be appreciated.

2. I know the study of repeatably influencing the ratio between possession (evidenced by Corsi or Fenwick) and scoring chances or goals has not typically demonstrated there is a repeatable skill (although I think most of this study has come at a team level). I wonder if we take out the offensive end of it and don't use the possession metrics as a ratio but in their absolute value of the opponent's offensive possession if that wouldn't present some data to challenge those conclusions. To my eye, Bouwmeester is a guy who, for a given amount of possession by his opponents, is able to limit such possession to less scoring chances. Off-Season work to be sure. Maybe I am wrong. Maybe things like QualComp will make interpretation too difficult.

When I hear guys like Burke negatively commenting on the usefulness of hockey statistics and analytics, it is these types of totally counterintuitive conclusions that the data leads us to that makes me see where they are coming from.

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#4 PrairieStew
March 16 2012, 12:13PM
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@Tach

I was looking at that Corsi number too, since I didn't see the game and wondered why Bouw got beat up so badly. Must have all been perimeter shots ?

By the same token - I see people commenting on the awful play of Babchuk, yet he ends the game as the only D in the plus on scoring chances and among the best corsi for the game. Must be doing something right.

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#5 Tach
March 16 2012, 03:13PM
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@PrairieStew

Re: Bouw, yeah I think that's exactly the point.

Re: Babchuk - Flames team zone start was 22 Defensive (43%), 19 Neutral (37%), 10 Off (20%). Babchuk got 6 Defensive (35%), 8 Neutral (47%) and 3 Offensive (18%) zone starts. So he got cushioned a bit there.

Plus he played almost the whole game behind either the Nemisz line or the Comeau line - and saw very limited time against the Coyotes top line (~1 minute against Doan and Whitney, ~2 minutes against Langkow). So he didn't see the toughs.

Also, he played half as much as Bouwmeester in those circumstances but Phoenix got the same number of scoring chances against. I strongly doubt Babchuk played any role in any of those chances in favour. He got lucky he had guys generating in front of him.

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