April 19 2012 03:45PM
We did this in the middle of February previously, so I figured with all the regular seasons finished it was about time to update things.
For those who don't recall, "NHLE" is short for NHL equivalency, which is mathy way to compare prospects across different leagues. To get a kid's NHLE, you multiple his point-per-game rate by a "translation factor" based on the leagues quality relative to the NHL. The translation factors were originally determined by Gabriel Desjardins of behindthenet.ca fame.
So without further ado, here are the results:
- Like in February, Sven Baertschi is on an island all by himself. Teenagers who post NHLE's higher than 40 are typically a pretty good bet to be offensive producers in NHL, assuming they didn't score all of their points on the PP (cough *Rob Schremp* cough) and/or weren't riding coattails. Baertschi's NHLE in his draft year was about 32 as a point of reference.
I haven't looked at all the guys drafted last June, but my guess Baertschi is easily top-5 amongst that draft class by this metric, if not top-3.
- Johhny Gaudreau moved up the list with a bullet thanks to his outbusrt down the stretch. Keep in mind, not only is Gaudreau the smallest guy on this list, he's also the youngest with an August 1993 birthday. Baertschi was born in October 1992 and Granlund in April of 1993.
I'm not sure what to expect out of the tiny titan after such an incredible freshman season, but if he can take even a few more modest steps forward and put on some size/weight the Flames may have really found something in Gaudreau. Remember, Baertschi's NHLE at about the same age was actually marginally lower at 32.
- Ferland is also a big surprise given his draft pedigree. The former 5th rounder was one of the key cogs for the Brandon Wheat Kings in his 19-20 year old season. His impressive NHLE should be noted with caution, however - he was older than a lot of his cohorts and he played on a line with Mark Stone, who tore up the league to the tune of 123 points in 66 games.
Still, Ferland is poised to turn pro this coming season with an NHL ready frame (6'2", 208 pounds) and some skills that are probably better than your average 5th rounder.
- Max Reinhart's NHLE might be disappointing to some. We'll add more context to his results later this off-season, but keep in mind his Kootenay Ice was one of the lowest scoring outfits in the WHL this year. By all accounts, not only did Max lead the team in scoring, he was also integral in just about every situation on the ice.
- Greg Nemisz's number fell since the last time we checked and it was already fairly disappointing. Although reports about his play from the farm are never overtly negative and he seemed to at least keep his head above water during his brief stint with the Flames, it's becoming pretty apparent that Nemisz probably isn't going to do much scoring as a pro. Consider: Nemisz's scoring rate over his first two seasons in the AHL is 0.52 PPG, which translates to an 19-point season in the bigs.
The former first rounder turns 22 in June and next year will be his final season under an entry level deal. He'll have that year to convince the Flames he's anything more than a replacement level skater.
- Many of the other guys were added for context, outside of Bill Arnold who I think might have a future as big league third line center. He turns 20 in May, but probably has at least one more season left at Boston College.
- Obviously I applied this analysis to the Flames forward prospects only, since offensive numbers rarely give much insight into a defenders worth. Particularly in the Flames case, since they don't really have any blueliners with futures as point producers as things stand.