FN Weekend OPen Thread - Flames Roster in Three Years

Kent Wilson
August 18 2012 09:46AM

 

 

One of the potential risks of the looming lock-out for the Flames (both team and fans) is the possibility Jarome Iginla's final season in town will either be severely shortened or wiped out entirely. The club could eliminate that risk by re-signing the captain sooner rather than later, but that causes the org to step into a whole new minefield given his age and the uncertainty surrounding a new CBA.

Of course, we also don't know if Iginla is even willing to re-sign in Calgary at this point.

With his career nearing its sunset, the team around him faltering and fresh uncertainties facing him about the labor agreement, Iginla may choose to wait things out and see what a new horizon brings come summer 2013. If the season is wiped out or, alternatively, if the Flames again fail to make the dance, Iginla would be entirely justified in looking beyond the borders of the only NHL team he's ever known to experience life elsewhere as the inspirational vet or solid support player - and perhaps get a chance to win before he finally hangs up the skates.

With that in mind and considering the age of many of the club's other money players, I began to wonder recently what the club's roster would look like 3 years down the road. At that point, it's entirely possible Iginla and Kipper will be gone, while 35 year old Alex Tanguay will start to slow down significantly. Jay Bouwmeester will likely be gone by then as well, which is either a good or bad thing depending on where you stand on the player.

The Flames only have 4 current major leaguers signed until 2014-15: Jiri Hudler, Dennis Wideman, Mark Giordano and Tanguay. Sven Baerstchi should be at least a sophomore by then and Mikael Backlund will be 25-26 and either a key cog on the team or traded. In net, it could be a combination of Karri Ramo and Leland Irving (or neither, because who knows with goalies). By then, Lance Bouma will probably be a regular 4th liner and Greg Nemisz...probably the same. Maybe Johnny Gaudreau or Mark Jankowski will be making a debut that year as well. Roman Cervenka might still be around if he manages to translate his game in North America. etc.

So get out your crystal balls Flames fans. Who sticks and is around in 3 years? Who are the club's big guns? Who anchors the blueline? Who is stopping pucks?

 

39d8109299a9795cb3b41a4e9b49d501
Former Nations Overlord. Current Fn contributor and curmudgeon For questions, complaints, criticisms, etc contact Kent @ kent.wilson@gmail. Follow him on Twitter here.
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#1 RexLibris
August 18 2012, 12:36PM
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@KevinR

"I think I just got closer to the Wolfs blow this sucker up now mind set"

Come to the dark side, my friend. We have cookies.

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#2 Tommynotsohuge
August 18 2012, 01:39PM
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@JayD54

I think they will find a way to keep most of them, sure there will be a couple of sacrifices, but the majority of the studs will be there. I can't deny the fact that the Oilers are going to have one hell of a team by 13/14. Our goal should be to at least equal them. I moved to Canada from the UK in 1996 and I have never had the privalage of witnessing a real battle of Alberta. I want both to succeed and see the Flames beat those wankers in game 7 of the western conference final. Cheers

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#3 McRib
August 20 2012, 09:22AM
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@Old Soldier

This year’s flames draft was ranked in most experts Top 10, but none of these players were included in the long term prospect rankings at Hockey Future/TSN as people think they were good value picks however need to prove themselves.

Also Hockey Future still has Ryan Howse ahead of John Gaudreau & Michael Ferland as flames left wingers, makes me question their rankings. Ferland is a power forward who showed huge offensive upside after scoring 94 points last year. Gaudreau is going to be on team USAs first line at the world juniors and will most likely be a top 10 candidate for the Hoby Baker, he may be small but his offensive talents are undeniable.

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#4 Colin
August 18 2012, 10:16AM
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I couldn't even hazard a guess as to what this team is going to look like, never mind who is the manager at that point.

All I do know is that Cory freaking Sarich will still be here.

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#5 drewski
August 18 2012, 10:21AM
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@Colin

Haha so true. I wonder if he will skate faster with his walker in 2014.

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#7 T&A4Flames
August 18 2012, 10:50AM
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I'll take a crack at 'er:

Baertschi-Reinhart-Hudler/Granlund Gaudreau-Backlund-GlenX Ferland-Nemisz-Iggy Bouma-Jones-some skull-cracking enforcer

Gio-Brodie Seiloff-Wideman Breen-Ramage/Wotherspoon some vet

Ramo; Irving/Ortio (he'll figure it out)

Troy Ward- coach Weisbrod-Conny

Pretty hard to guess as soooooo much can and will happen in 3 years. But, you have to think that a number of our prospects will make the jump by that point. I may try again after soem more thought.

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#8 suba steve
August 18 2012, 10:58AM
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@Kent Wilson

Sarich's CURRENT contract will be done. I think Colin is referring to the extension he is sure to sign to keep him in Calgary following the 2013-14 season. Probably 2.0-2.5 million/yr for ONLY 2 or 3 more years.

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#9 SmellOfVictory
August 18 2012, 11:02AM
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Of the current guys I imagine Tanguay, Glencross, Cervenka, Hudler, Backlund, Bouma, Jbo, Gio, Wideman, Brodie, Smith will still be on the team (subtract 2 of the listed because there's no way I could be 100% right). I expect Reinhart, Ferland, Baertschi, Arnold, and Gaudreau will all be on the team in some capacity as well.

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#11 schevvy
August 18 2012, 11:11AM
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We all know Iggy will still be the #1 winger in 3 years and we will still be looking for a centre to play with him. Oh, and Olli will somehow find his way back on the team. No idea how, but he will.

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#12 Kevin R
August 18 2012, 11:16AM
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Well, if you want to really step out & crystal ball this thing, you would have to think the new arena would be ready by then. With the strong chance of fans getting totally choked about this media hyped battle of mind boggling money, Flames brass really need to think how they are going to get guys like me to want to keep shelling the $$$ to see this stuff & fill that new fancy building. Based on the last 3 years, I have been to a lot of yawners at the dome. So while these guys fight over the riches, peasants like me will be re evaluating whether I want to keep doing this. Would I pay to watch Baerschte & Gaudreau. Yeah probably. They represent some of the exciting hockey I am prepared to pay for. If Brass were smart they would sell almost everything to acquire the top 2 picks in this years draft so the likes of Mackinnon & Seth Jones, with Baerschte, Gaudreau, Jankowski & maybe a few other young guys that step up will be the headline to the new building. To do that they need to acquire 1st rounders, JBO, Iggy, Kipper, Cammi, doesnt matter where these 1st rounders are, we need several of them & then we package the GlenX & Tanguays & whoever we have to to get the top 2 picks. Then we start fresh clean, in a fresh new building. So to predict what our roster would look like in 3 years, dont think it can be done, but I could list the new core I can hope for:

1/Brodie & Jones :)on the blueline

2/Baerschte/Cerevenka/Mackinnon:) /Gaudreau/Jankowski/Backlund(has breakout year)

3/Ramo/Broissault(?spelling)/Gilles

Kent, I think by going thru the process of trying to see what the future will be in 3 years is a sombre wake up call confirming that we truly are at the end of an era. Maybe we should be getting ready for it now. I think I just got closer to the Wolfs blow this sucker up now mind set. 2013 draft may be a window of opportunity to bring a happy new era sooner than the current slow retool stratedgy currently being implemented.

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#13 Colin
August 18 2012, 11:30AM
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Kent Wilson wrote:

Haha. I hope not.

I sure did, he's gonna hit some Oilers kid in a meaningless game that the Flames are losing like 9-1 and the fans are gonna go crazy about his "grit" and his "leadership" and "heart" while losing such a big game. Ownership will bring him back cause he's a leader and a fan favourite and give him another NMC.

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#14 Austin L
August 18 2012, 11:42AM
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This is just a wild guess. I say Iggy and Kipper are gone. Hopefully we traded them for what we could get. So that's probably a combination of picks/prospects/young-ish players. The anchor for forwards will probably be Backlund/Cervenka/Baertschi. Hudler will be in the top 6 along with Tanguay. They probably will re-sign Cammalleri. After that it's a wild guess. Bouma will be on the fourth line.

People that I see moving up for forwards are Gaudreau=top 9. Granlund=top 9. Ferland=top 9. Reinhart=top 6.

On the defensive side of things, I think the at least one of the next two years, we're going to have to use one of our first round picks on a defenseman since our cupboards are so bare. Brodie will hopefully be a bad top 2 or a very good top 4. I'm thinking something along the lines of a Wideman here. JBo will be gone. Butler will still be here. Giordano will still be here. Wideman will still be here. So the top 4 looks like Butler, Gio, Wideman, Brodie. But Feaster will probably make some moves to tinker with the D before then. John Ramage hopefully makes the team as well.

In net, if Kipper leaves, I assume Ramo and Irving with split one season, if neither impresses, then we'll either sign a guy from free agency, or trade for somebody.

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#15 Tommynotsohuge
August 18 2012, 11:49AM
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Baertschi-MacKinnon-Rattie

Gaudreau-Jankawski-Chris Stewert

Glenncross-Reinheart-Ferland

Bouma-Jones-Nemisz

Gio-Brodie Wideman-Seiloff Arnold-Wotherspoon Breen

Ramo-Irving

We trade Bouwmeester And Iggy to St. Louis for Rattie and Stewert. Trade kipper on this upcoming trade deadline to a basement dweller for their first round pick. Move up in the lottery to select MacKinnon 1st overall. Maybe take Lazar with pur other first. Wishful thinking o Know, but a guy can dream :)

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#17 Danger
August 18 2012, 11:52AM
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@Kevin R

I see what you mean about getting closer to the Wolf's mindset about blowing up the core after doing this little thought exercise.

One thing we should all keep in mind though is that there are a couple of drafts between now and then, as well as a couple of crops of UFAs. So the cupboards will likely be less bare than they appear to be now. (They will still be pretty darn bare, just not completely bare.)

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#18 Danger
August 18 2012, 12:02PM
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@Kent

With any luck, the oilers will be good enough to not get any more lottery picks, but bad enough to still miss the playoffs or get booted early because they will continue to have poor defending and poorer goaltending.

Of course, if we had any luck we wouldn't be in this terrible position, so probably the Oilers become the new Canucks and start collecting President's Trophies.

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#19 Colin
August 18 2012, 12:12PM
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Kent Wilson wrote:

Kent, I think by going thru the process of trying to see what the future will be in 3 years is a sombre wake up call

For sure. Now try to think what the Oilers will look like in 3 years.

With keeping Cory Sarich around, we've put them in wheelchairs.

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#20 JayD54
August 18 2012, 12:17PM
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@Kent Wilson

I am certain that you made the comment about the projected Oiler line up with a bit of a smirk.

Yes, I am a Flames fan, but I do acknowledge and recognize that the current Oiler roster and their system carries pretty good potential.

The silent ticking time bomb for the Oilers, though Kent, is the fact that they will have a significant number of their current roster players reach the end of their entry level contracts. My question (and, indeed, caution) about what the Oilers might look like in 3 years is how many of those guys will they be able to afford to keep around under a hard cap situation. Reality will dictate that Eberle, Hall, Nugent Hopkins, Yakupov, J. Schultz and company will, should they develop in the giddy hot stove dreams of Oiler fans, the team be able to fit under the cap?

A different situation than the Flames, yes, but one still fraught with huge risks and question marks. But, isn't that what we've seen with these two organizations throughout their respective memebership in the NHL? The Oilers of the '80s were built similarly, through drafts that yielded them the Coffeys and the Lowes, Fuhr, Kurri and company (Gretzky was a gift, remember, from the WHA). Their counterpoint in Calgary, the second half of the best two teams in the League, was built by free agent signings (scouring the NCAA in those days), some astute trading by Cliff Fletcher and some surprises out of lower rounds of the draft (Al MacInnis, Gary Suter).

My point? Only that there are many ways to success, not just one. My hope is that the Battle of Alberta will once again (earlier than those 3 year projections) be the contest between the two best teams in the NHL. Everyone wins then.

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#21 Kevin R
August 18 2012, 12:49PM
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RexLibris wrote:

@KevinR

"I think I just got closer to the Wolfs blow this sucker up now mind set"

Come to the dark side, my friend. We have cookies.

:) Do I get to grow horns & gross looking bumps like that new Seth or do I have to get burned & wear a Darth helmut? If the cookies are those Klondike Bars where the cheerleaders pop out after you take a bite of one, I'm in. :-)

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#22 RKD
August 18 2012, 12:51PM
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In three years, I see Gio, Irving, Baertschi, Glencross, Rammo, Backlund, Horak, Butler, Gaudreau, Reinhardt, Bouma, and Neimsz on this team.

Obviously due to contract length, I also see Wideman, Hudler, Tanguay, and Cammalleri still here.

One thing not mentioned, Jarome is not going to ask for a trade and ownership won't trade him. It's unlikely, but who's to say he wouldn't retire as Flame.

If Jay-Bo isn't moved now, he could still go at the deadline or at the draft next summer.

Kipper probably has a few solid seasons left in him, then would retire.

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#23 Austin L
August 18 2012, 12:58PM
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Tommynotsohuge wrote:

Baertschi-MacKinnon-Rattie

Gaudreau-Jankawski-Chris Stewert

Glenncross-Reinheart-Ferland

Bouma-Jones-Nemisz

Gio-Brodie Wideman-Seiloff Arnold-Wotherspoon Breen

Ramo-Irving

We trade Bouwmeester And Iggy to St. Louis for Rattie and Stewert. Trade kipper on this upcoming trade deadline to a basement dweller for their first round pick. Move up in the lottery to select MacKinnon 1st overall. Maybe take Lazar with pur other first. Wishful thinking o Know, but a guy can dream :)

I like the thinking but I think that hopefully the Flames will sign a few free agents during the time because as much as I like our prospects that's a pretty weak line up. I like your thinking though, but I really hope the combination of Iginla and JBo would bring back a lot more than Rattie and Stewart. I say give Iggy to St. Louis for Rattie and Kipper to Columbus for Johansen. Reunite the Winterhawks ;) . I think Iggy and Kipper should bring back a bit more than one high end prospect though.

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#24 Colin
August 18 2012, 01:00PM
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Iginla isn't going anywhere, were else is he going to go where he can tell the coach to STFU and nothing can be done about it, or tell the coach to F-off about doing warmups and so on and so forth. Pretty well no where, and he knows it. Even if he doesn't win the cup he's a first ballot hall of famer, so maybe thats good enough for him.

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#25 negrilcowboy
August 18 2012, 01:03PM
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wonder if we will hear "we need a bounce back game"

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#26 Austin L
August 18 2012, 01:14PM
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Colin wrote:

Iginla isn't going anywhere, were else is he going to go where he can tell the coach to STFU and nothing can be done about it, or tell the coach to F-off about doing warmups and so on and so forth. Pretty well no where, and he knows it. Even if he doesn't win the cup he's a first ballot hall of famer, so maybe thats good enough for him.

He could probably pull that off in Columbus hahahah too bad he has a NTC

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#27 Tommynotsohuge
August 18 2012, 01:19PM
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I agree Austin, they should catch a bit more than that. I just think that Chris Stewert has what it takes to be Iginlas replacement. He's a solid, strong power forward that isn't afraid of going into the ugly areas and cause chaos. Sure, he will never live up to Iggy standards, but he could definitely be a perfect second line RW. As for Johannson, Absolutely!!!!! I hope Feaster is reading this. We might have just saved this franchise!!!!

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#28 Austin L
August 18 2012, 01:28PM
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Tommynotsohuge wrote:

I agree Austin, they should catch a bit more than that. I just think that Chris Stewert has what it takes to be Iginlas replacement. He's a solid, strong power forward that isn't afraid of going into the ugly areas and cause chaos. Sure, he will never live up to Iggy standards, but he could definitely be a perfect second line RW. As for Johannson, Absolutely!!!!! I hope Feaster is reading this. We might have just saved this franchise!!!!

Stewart has only ever had one year above 30 points with Colorado. He does fit the age bracket the Flames are looking for (23-28). I could see him in the top 9. To be in the top 6 I think you have to hit above 40-45 points multiple times.

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#29 Reidja
August 18 2012, 01:32PM
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@Tommynotsohuge

I like this. It's almost best case scenario but it does point to a large hole in our future defensive depth. Otherwise, I will pray every night for this to come true.

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#30 Austin L
August 18 2012, 01:36PM
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@Reidja

We can eventually replace JBo if we draft Seth Jones next year. Just kidding, but its time we draft a defenseman.

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#31 Reidja
August 18 2012, 01:39PM
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You know... I wish I could say that Feaster is taking this longer term view.

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#32 cLyde
August 18 2012, 02:06PM
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I am a Flames fan but we should not smirk at the Oilers predicament 3 years from now. If their 4-5 guys continue to develop, they will be able to sign them much like we were able to keep our core together too and Chicago has done, Pittsburgh, etc. We need to worry about our own team. I couldn't agree more that we need to trade Iggy and Kipper. If we could get Stewart, Rattie ( although not huge on him) and a 1st for Iggy and a prospect that would be worth a risk. Kipper for Johannson and a 1st would be tremendous. We would need to throw in a bit more too I am sure. Possible Roster: Forwards: Sven, Ferland, Reinhart, Reinhart, Gaudreau, Tanguay, Stewart, Hudler, Jankowski, Johannsen, Arnold, Rattie, Veteran, Veteran, Veteran. Last 3 are role players. I know it is 15 players but, we will have some misses.

Defense: Gio Wideman Brodie Butler Seth Jones Sieloff Wotherspoon

Goal: Ramo Kipper ( resigned)

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#33 SmellOfVictory
August 18 2012, 03:30PM
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Kent Wilson wrote:

Kent, I think by going thru the process of trying to see what the future will be in 3 years is a sombre wake up call

For sure. Now try to think what the Oilers will look like in 3 years.

In my favourite scenario, At least one of the big 4 has to be traded away because the other 3 get overpaid, and he ends up being the best of the bunch. I want the Oilers and Flames to be competitive, but I also want the Oilers fans to suffer.

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#34 TheLastBigBear
August 18 2012, 03:50PM
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Cammalleri - #1 centre - Expensive UFA Glencross - Backlund - Iginla Tanguay - Reinhart - Baertschi Noob - Bouma - Nemisz

And on defence we'll see: Giordano - Expensive UFA Wideman - Brodie Seiloff - Noob

Ramo Reimer

Cervenka, Hudler, and Butler (along with picks) were all moved to acquire a #1C (I nominate Stastny). Big signings in the two intervening off-seasons have brought in a first-line RW (I nominate Hartnall), and a first pairing d-man (I nominate Dan Girardi).

Reimer get signed as a back-up (I just want to stick it to all the Leafs fans who think he is the real deal).

Irving washes out, Jankowski never makes it past the 2nd line of the Heat. Gaudreau proves to be WAAAAY to small to make it in the NHL, and goes to Europe/Russia/wherever.

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#35 The Last Big Bear
August 18 2012, 03:52PM
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Cammalleri - #1 centre - Expensive UFA

Glencross - Backlund - Iginla

Tanguay - Reinhart - Baertschi

Noob - Bouma - Nemisz

And on defence we'll see:

Giordano - Expensive UFA

Wideman - Brodie

Seiloff - Noob

Ramo

Reimer

Cervenka, Hudler, and Butler (along with picks) were all moved to acquire a #1C (I nominate Stastny). Big signings in the two intervening off-seasons have brought in a first-line RW (I nominate Hartnall), and a first pairing d-man (I nominate Dan Girardi).

Reimer get signed as a back-up (I just want to stick it to all the Leafs fans who think he is the real deal).

Irving washes out, Jankowski never makes it past the 2nd line of the Heat. Gaudreau proves to be WAAAAY to small to make it in the NHL, and goes to Europe/Russia/wherever.

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#36 RexLibris
August 18 2012, 04:45PM
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@SmellOfVictory

" I want the Oilers and Flames to be competitive, but I also want the Oilers fans to suffer."

Sir, I am wounded! lol

I understand the desire for a little schadenfreude from Flames fans, but the reality is that even if the Oilers have to give up one of their prospects (Yakupov, Eberle, etc) they will likely be at least reasonably compensated, be it through trade or offer sheet. It may be a diminishing return, but the starting point would likely be relatively high.

As for the exercise, I guess it all depends on the elephant-in-the-room question: "is Feaster still around in three years?"

I'd say no, which means anything could happen.

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#37 suba steve
August 18 2012, 04:50PM
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JayD54

I'm really not getting the doom and gloom as applied to the Oilers, and resigning their young stars when they become RFA's. I would trade the Flame's current situation for that one any day. IF the Oil are unable to resign Nail, trade his rights for a few young (cheap) high end prospects, and a few roll players.

Pens did the same with Staal just a few weeks back and they still look kinda strong. That's the kind of problem I would love to have.

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#38 RexLibris
August 18 2012, 05:52PM
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@suba steve

That is pretty much where I am in the "can we keep them all" debate.

Would fans rather have their team have to trade away a player like Yakupov or Eberle because they can't afford the luxury of him, or would they prefer never to have had him at all?

If the Oilers were eventually forced to trade one of their young players, likely either Yakupov or Eberle because Hall and Nugent-Hopkins will quickly become untouchable, and receive even half of what the Kessel trade got for Boston, it would be a pretty decent trade down. Doug Hamilton, or a player of his ilk, would look awfully nice paired with Justin Schultz, Jeff Petry, or Ladislav Smid.

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#39 SmellOfVictory
August 18 2012, 06:48PM
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You'd think the return would be good, but in my experience watching Sutter work, it's evident that GMs are entirely capable of taking it in the pooper on trades.

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#40 FireOnIce
August 18 2012, 08:05PM
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Re: Oilers. Not all of their top prospects can ask for $10M per year for 15 years. Only 1 or 2 of them is really worth even anything near that. My guess would be Eberle as the odd man out.

The way Hall plays though, he'll be injured and retired in a year or two (two or three if there's a lockout).

As for the Flames, I would protest outside the Saddledome if they lost Iginla for nothing. After the whole "Schenn + Simmonds + 1st for Iginla" debacle, that'd be the final straw. Failing to trade Iginla when he had full value and then bungling it with a new contract... wow, what a major screw up.

The people suggesting Chris Stewart obviously don't know anything about him. I watched a lot of him in Colorado, and he's not that good. One 30 goal season, and he hasn't been the same since he broke his hand a couple years ago. He DOESN'T go to the dirty areas as much anymore (he didn't really before the broken hand either), and he's been in and out of the dog house in both CO and STL. He lost his scoring touch and I'm pretty sure the roughing up of opponents is left to Inglourious Backes. No thanks.

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#41 seve927
August 18 2012, 08:07PM
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Hard to guess what the whole roster would look like, but I'm surprised Kulak is not on anyones list. I think Ferland has a chance to be a real good player, like what Arnold and Reinhart could offer, and I think Brossoit has a good chance of being something special.

Cautiously optimistic on Gaudreau.

The 2012 class seem pretty good, but I'll wait and see how they perform this year to get excited about any of them.

Overall, way brighter future than the Oilers.

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#42 Dino
August 18 2012, 08:53PM
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Regarding Iggy resigning an extension this summer; if I'm his agent, I tell him to wait and see what Shane Doan signs for and use that as a comparable.

Wasn't it Buffalo that offered Doan 4 years at $30M? If I'm Iggy, and Doan signs for anywhere near those dollars and term, I'm laughing all the way to the bank. You gotta think that if Doan gets $7.5M per year, Iggy is worth as much, if not more!

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#43 cLyde
August 18 2012, 09:20PM
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Dino wrote:

Regarding Iggy resigning an extension this summer; if I'm his agent, I tell him to wait and see what Shane Doan signs for and use that as a comparable.

Wasn't it Buffalo that offered Doan 4 years at $30M? If I'm Iggy, and Doan signs for anywhere near those dollars and term, I'm laughing all the way to the bank. You gotta think that if Doan gets $7.5M per year, Iggy is worth as much, if not more!

Much more.

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#44 ConnorFutureGM
August 19 2012, 12:10AM
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Bartschi-Backlund-Hudler Tanguay-Reinhart-? Glencross-Bouma-? ?-Horak-? EXTRA:?

Giordano-Wideman Brodie-? Butler-? EXTRA:Breen-?

Irving Brossoit

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#45 PrairieStew
August 19 2012, 04:27AM
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So much depends on who develops in to NHL players. If you could develop on average just 2 players per season from your draft picks or amateur free agent signings you could have a team nearly full of guys in their 20's

Who you sign as UFA's or resign among your own players is predicated on who develops.. The way the Flames look currently, they had better develop closer to 3 guys per year, otherwise they will be filling holes in the expensive UFA market

This past year Brodie and Bouma (not Horak) were the 2 guys that made the jump. This year the expectation will be that the 2 will be Irving and Baertschi. In 13-14 they need to resign both Butler and Brodie - and it would be good to see either Breen or Brady Lamb make the jump and be D 7. At forward either Horak or Nemisz needs to make the jump as 3rd line players.

In 14-15, that's where 3 or 4 players need to develop. You need a goalie ( probably Ramo), a defenceman - maybe John Ramage and at least 2 forwards, let's say Reinhart and Gaudreau.

In the fall of 15-16 Markus Granlund and Mark Jankowski make the team as does Tyler Wotherspoon on defence.

So Oct 1 2015 - 3 years from now:

In goal : Irving and Ramo

On Defence Wideman and Gio, Butler and Brodie, Lamb, Ramage and Wotherspoon - with one mid level UFA

At forward : Hudler, Tanguay and a cheaper Iginla

Backlund Baertschi Granlund

Horak Bouma Gaudreau

Reinhart Jankowski and 2 other players either resigned ( Glencross, Cervanka) or UFA's acquired.

So this assumes some failures as well. One of either Horak or Nemisz fails to make it; ditto for Breen and Lamb. Ryan Howse does not make the club making the entire 2009 draft a strikeout and Roman Cervanka ends up back in Europe. Neither Blair Jones nor Blake Comeau are long term solutions and Paul Byron goes missing in a corn maze during a team building event at a training camp.

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#46 seve927
August 19 2012, 07:36AM
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PrairieStew wrote:

So much depends on who develops in to NHL players. If you could develop on average just 2 players per season from your draft picks or amateur free agent signings you could have a team nearly full of guys in their 20's

Who you sign as UFA's or resign among your own players is predicated on who develops.. The way the Flames look currently, they had better develop closer to 3 guys per year, otherwise they will be filling holes in the expensive UFA market

This past year Brodie and Bouma (not Horak) were the 2 guys that made the jump. This year the expectation will be that the 2 will be Irving and Baertschi. In 13-14 they need to resign both Butler and Brodie - and it would be good to see either Breen or Brady Lamb make the jump and be D 7. At forward either Horak or Nemisz needs to make the jump as 3rd line players.

In 14-15, that's where 3 or 4 players need to develop. You need a goalie ( probably Ramo), a defenceman - maybe John Ramage and at least 2 forwards, let's say Reinhart and Gaudreau.

In the fall of 15-16 Markus Granlund and Mark Jankowski make the team as does Tyler Wotherspoon on defence.

So Oct 1 2015 - 3 years from now:

In goal : Irving and Ramo

On Defence Wideman and Gio, Butler and Brodie, Lamb, Ramage and Wotherspoon - with one mid level UFA

At forward : Hudler, Tanguay and a cheaper Iginla

Backlund Baertschi Granlund

Horak Bouma Gaudreau

Reinhart Jankowski and 2 other players either resigned ( Glencross, Cervanka) or UFA's acquired.

So this assumes some failures as well. One of either Horak or Nemisz fails to make it; ditto for Breen and Lamb. Ryan Howse does not make the club making the entire 2009 draft a strikeout and Roman Cervanka ends up back in Europe. Neither Blair Jones nor Blake Comeau are long term solutions and Paul Byron goes missing in a corn maze during a team building event at a training camp.

Good analysis. The only thing I'd say about it, is that you almost never see completely home grown talent, so some of these players will probably be playing on other teams, and vice versa.

Also, it may be optimistic to think our 2013-2014 first rounders won't be playing ;)

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#47 Flameiola
August 19 2012, 07:41AM
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Reidja wrote:

You know... I wish I could say that Feaster is taking this longer term view.

I think Feaster is taking the long term view...he has a decent core but the Flames havent't drafted well up until 2010 so there's little in the larder (today). He has put a lot of additional effort into both the draft and player evaluation. Most responders here are missing the fact that in 3 years, they will have 2 more drafts where the high selections will have at least some pro seasoning. Even if you want to "blow it up" you have to be strategic. Until a new CBA is in place, I don't think you will maximize value anyway. For me I just hope the due diligence was done on the new guys. If you make the right choices 7 times out of 10, you will do fine: Detroit

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#48 PrairieStew
August 19 2012, 08:52AM
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@seve927

Agreed - you almost never see a team with completely home grown talent, but if you did then that means they have drafted well. Ideally the Flames should be stocked with players taken from 2001 -2009 as those guys are now 21 -30.

2001 Kobasew and Moss

2002 Nystrom, Lombardi, Mcelhinney

2003 Phaneuf

2004 Prust and Pardy

2005 Nothing !

2006 Irving

2007 Backlund and Aulie

2008 Brodie Bouma and Nemisz

2009 Erixon

Not a pretty picture only one real impact player drafted.

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#49 RexLibris
August 19 2012, 10:00AM
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PrairieStew wrote:

Agreed - you almost never see a team with completely home grown talent, but if you did then that means they have drafted well. Ideally the Flames should be stocked with players taken from 2001 -2009 as those guys are now 21 -30.

2001 Kobasew and Moss

2002 Nystrom, Lombardi, Mcelhinney

2003 Phaneuf

2004 Prust and Pardy

2005 Nothing !

2006 Irving

2007 Backlund and Aulie

2008 Brodie Bouma and Nemisz

2009 Erixon

Not a pretty picture only one real impact player drafted.

I was going to say that based on your earlier lineup, the team would likely still likely be slotted at or near their current level.

While the team would be younger and likely more affordable, they might still be lacking some of the higher-end talent that it would take to raise them to the next level or to attract at least one key free agent to do the same.

Without a doubt it would be more well-constructed, more balanced team, but unless Baertschi, Gaudreau and Jankowski can become something like Spezza-Heatley-Alfredsson I just see a collection of 2nd line players that can find success through depth of above-average players.

I could be wrong, we're talking hypothetical roster spots for players in NCAA and only just turned 18, so this is hardly a scientific debate.

BTW, when I looked into it, I think the 2006 draft was worse than 2005 for the Flames. Only Irving remains from that entire draft class and his status as a potential starter is still a topic of open debate (allowing for the fact that goalies often take longer to develop). From what I could tell, of the other players chosen not a single one is still with the team and none have registered even one NHL game played.

Is it a coincidence that four years later (when drafted players often begin to impact the NHL roster and a dearth of prospects could force a team to make desperate trades) Darryl Sutter lost his job?

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#50 Old Soldier
August 19 2012, 03:28PM
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Every fan of every team over values the quality of their individual players. So to be as objective as possible when it comes to the Flames system and their prospects and where they will be 3 years from now, I defer to the experts.

THN Yearbook 2012/13 Flames prospects and depth rated 29th out of the 30 teams. The only player in the system rated as a possible to play in the NHL in the next 2 years is Baertschi, with Irving a distant possible as a backup. The rest of the prospects are not considered as pro-prospects until at least 2015.

By the way, they had the Oilers rated 1st, Montreal is 28th, Ottawa is 5th, Toronto is 20th, Vancouver is 27th and Winnipeg is 9th.

Calgary is also predicted to finish 12th in the West

Hockeys Future 2012/2013 has the Flames prospects rated 23rd overall. Once again, Baertschi is rated as the only prospect ready to step in, with Nemisz as a possible bottom 6.

ESPN 2012/2013 has the Flames prospects ranked 28th and once again Baertschi is listed as the only realistic future NHLer.

TSN 2012/2013 rankings has the Flames prospect pool rated 27th. Leading the pack is Sven Baertschi, who TSN Scout Craig Button believes could end up being one the five best players to come out of the class of 2011, but with little else of substance in the system.

I think it is fairly reasonable to say, based on expert opinion, and comparables, and using Feasters statements of "no rebuild", that in 3 years, both Iggy and Kipper retire (or close to it) as Flames, the core continues to age with minimal support (Baertschi) from the system, and to try and be positive, hopefully the Flames have scouted and drafted much better than in the past and people will be talking about their prospects as the Oilers do now.

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