Monday Random Thoughts - January 28 2013

Kent Wilson
January 28 2013 09:35AM

 

 

The Flames convincing win over the Oilers on Saturday night seems to have washed the away any lingering sour notes from the club's 0-2-1 start. Calgary certainly looked like a different team on HNIC relative to the prior three games. Their transition play was much smoother and they managed to more or less put together a full 60-minute effort, whereas they spent long portions of the other evenings being completely dominated to one degree or another.

Of course, it's hard what to make of a single performance this early in the season. Especially against an opponent like the Oilers, whom, for all their young talent, still have very real issues throughout their roster. Certainly the insertion of Hudler and Cervenka as well as the sudden awakening of Bouwmeester seemed like things that should continue indefinitely, the truth is we really can't be certain until we see similar efforts throughout the season. And against better teams to boot.

- Saturday night was also a perfect example of why the goon is an anachronism in the modern NHL. First, Don Cherry in all his bluster claimed the Toronto Maple Leafs were clearly a different team wtith "more swagger" in their play thanks to the insertion of guys like Brown and Orr into their line-up. This was after the first period in which the Leafs were outshot 14-3 but nevertheless led 2-0.

The rest of the story is predictable. Toronto ended up losing the game 5-2 and were outshot handily by New York, 41-17. Colton Orr played less than 4 minutes and had one fight, naturally spending more time in the box than on the ice.

- Darcy Hodichuk's night was even more unproductive for the Oilers. He played three shifts (less than two minutes total), took a useless cross-checking penalty (a PP the Flames scored on) and was generally a liability. Calgary didn't dress an enforcer type at all, opting for a 4th line of Baertschi, Jones and Comeau and mostly ran away with the game.

So much for swagger.

- Related: back in 2008 I wrote my first rant against the role of the goon called Ditch the Enforcer (hilariously pilfered in full by this random blog). In it, I noted one of the easiest and best ways to neuter the opposition's tough guy is to simply not dress one of your own (since heavyweights only ever seem to fight other heavyweights). The counter-argument always seems to be that the bad guys will run rough shod over the home team physically if they don't dress their own nuclear deterrent. 

The truth, however, is usually closer to what you saw in Calgary on Saturday: if the opposition is running a functional 4th line, it's difficult for the tough guy's coach to justify giving him any ice time at all since he's bound to struggle at the actual hockey portion of things.

- Although Calgary still doesn't have a true PvP line or Selke caliber player, there's no doubt they have greater offensive depth than the last few seasons as evidenced by the fact they can ice two relative good PP units. This of course depends on just how well Cervenka adapats to NHL hockey (he looked fine Satruday night) and if Lee Stempniak can continue to play like an all-star, but it's refreshing so far.

- I am surprised Bob Hartley decided to put Cervenka on the wing and stick with Tanguay at center. Everything obviously worked out fine versus the Oilers, but one wonders how well Alex is going to perform as a pivot in the long-term. My worries aren't really face-offs, but the on-going demands of the position, particularly in the defensve zone. Tanguay has had some problems in the previous games getting the job done anywhere but the offensive areas, so with another center (or two if you count Hudler) in the line-up, it makes sense to me to move Tanguay back to LW. This would also help get Mikael Backlund (who had the best possession rate on the team on Saturday by the way). Something like this:

  • Tanguay-Backlund-Iginla
  • Cammalleri - Cervenka - Hudler
  • Glencross - Stajan - Stempniak
  • Jackman/Baertschi - Jones - Comeau

- As for Baertschi, he looked fine on a line with Jones and that trio generated more than one 10-bell chance. That said, if this persists and they can't get him on the ice for more than 5 or 6 minutes per night, Sven should probably go back to Abbotsford and play top-line minutes there.

- Also, with TJ Brodie usurping Chris Butler and guys like Babchuk and Carson waiting around as depth options, it might make sense for the Flames to start shopping the former Buffalo Sabre around. There seems to be a big appetite for depth defenders around the league so Calgary could get a nice return for a guy the coach doesn't seem to have much time for. This isn't something they have to do immediately, but should be seriously considered if Hartley sits Butler for another week or two.

- I know we've discussed this before, but if the Flames could get rid of Stajan and replace him with Ryan O'Reilly, their roster suddenly looks so much better. O' Reilly remains unsigned and I imagine the Avs would listen to trade offers at this point as well. Of course, if their demands are unreasonable, there's always the offer-sheet...

Either way, Calgary would obviously have to free up salary space to ink the kid. Moving Butler and Stajan (somehow) and demoting Baertschi would probably do the trick.

39d8109299a9795cb3b41a4e9b49d501
Former Nations Overlord. Current Fn contributor and curmudgeon For questions, complaints, criticisms, etc contact Kent @ kent.wilson@gmail. Follow him on Twitter here.
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#1 Primo
January 28 2013, 09:47AM
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Kent..as usual you have a nice read on things. The only thing I would add is placing Comeau on waivers and if unclaimed either demoting him or buyout (I guess only at end of season). He is taking up valuable development space.

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#3 jakeryley
January 28 2013, 09:53AM
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Flames currently sit with almost 6M in allowable cap-space for this season - O'Reilly should absolutely be targeted. I'd love if Feaster and Flames ownership/management would should the "initiative" and land O'Reilly, either via trade or offer-sheet - although offer-sheet may be dangerous regardless of whether or not it's matched, because I can't count out the possibility of a top-5 draft pick this summer.

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#4 backburner
January 28 2013, 09:53AM
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I think O'Reilly would be the key piece that the Flames need to make them into a solid two way team, give them more compete against the likes of Chicago, or San Jose... to me it's a no-brainer, but Feaster seems like he is reluctant to make too much change because even last year he believed Calgary was a playoff team...

As far as enforcers go.. I think they still have a place, but if your going to add grit, they should also have some skill as well..

I think its far more intimidating to opposing teams if they are afraid to cross a blue line because they might get leveled... then any Goon threatening to drop the gloves.

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#5 Ed Ward
January 28 2013, 09:58AM
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I sincerely hope Feaster is calling O'Reilly's agent and Greg Sherman every single day. Signing him would go a long way to fixing the Flames issues both short term and long term.

Young centres who drive the play don't come available very often. Feaster needs to take a page out of Alex Anthopoulos' ninja GM playbook and take advantage of the opportunity.

What's a reasonable ballpark be for a trade for O'Reilly?

Offer sheet will likely cost a 1st and 3rd, so what has less value than that but satisfies the Avs?

Butler, Ferland and a 2nd? Probably a little light. Just spittballing here.

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#6 jakeryley
January 28 2013, 10:00AM
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and as Smid proved for the Oilers the other week, it's not about winning a fight - it's about fighting for your teammates.

If someone cranks Tanguay, Cammy or Baertschi unfairly - it's not about having a goon pound in the culprits face, it's about the team standing up and fighting back. So even if Jones, Jackman or Comeau (...wouldn't mind seeing Comeau do SOMETHING) get their faces mashed during the fight, that's okay - because they stood up for their teammate and the team will rally around it.

The other approach is also of course to simply be faster than the goons and make them irrelevant, as was done on Saturday

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#7 TheRealPoc
January 28 2013, 10:03AM
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Even if Baertschi creates opportunities for guys like Jones, Jackman and Comeau, it's not like he's setting up players who have a high likelihood of converting. So regardless of whether he's playing 5 minutes or 15 minutes, if he's surrounded by linemates with stone hands, it won't make much of a difference anyways.

And I'm expecting the rebuttal of "Comeau's due to return to his mean, he was a 12%ish shooter with the Isles" but he's been nothing but wasteful as a Flame and it's been painful to watch. At least he's usually driving play in the right direction, but would it kill him to aim for a corner once in a while?

If the Tanguay pivot experiment continues, lines I'd like to see:

Glencross-Tanguay-Iginla

Cammalleri-Backlund-Stempniak

Baertschi-Cervenka-Hudler

Any mix of Comeau/Stajan/Jackman/Jones on the 4th line

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#8 vowswithin
January 28 2013, 10:03AM
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Kent Wilson wrote:

Ehh. Im okay with Comeau on the 4th line. I don't know how much development a kid can do in that position. Sven will almost assuredly jump over him at some point and it's not like the Flames have an obviously superior option to Comeau either (Jackman and Begin being other options).

Comeau has some tools - he can skate and bang bodies and put the puck in the net from time-to-time. his deficiency seems to be his head - not the smartest dude on the ice. Against other 4th lines he's fine though.

I must say I have wondered how he pulled off 24 goals and 22 assists in 77 games for the islander. I guess he must have has some great luck and been playing with some decent players.

It's too bad he hasn't been able to return himself to former glory as of yet... if he could somehow get back to business he might really provide some 4th line depth.

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#9 vowswithin
January 28 2013, 10:08AM
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@TheRealPoc

@therealpoc

Ahh that answers some of my questions!

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#10 bookofloob
January 28 2013, 10:14AM
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I think it's smart to wait and see what direction the team is headed before they pull the trigger on O'Reilly. If they can hold out a month or so and see if they're legitimately making a run for a playoff spot (or even if it's just looking like another 9th or 10th place finish), than you do it, because he's likely to be better than the guy you draft.

Where as if things bottom out and the Flames are terrible, if you've got a shot at MacKinnon, go after MacKinnon.

You run the risk of someone else taking action on O'Reilly, but so be it. At least you still have the first and third.

Would be really nice to not have Stajan on the team and somehow have O'Reilly, wouldn't it?

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#11 backburner
January 28 2013, 10:18AM
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@bookofloob

They want to win now, they want to make the playoffs this year.. I'm not saying I agree with Feaster's logic, but to me, if that is what the goal is.. when an opportunity arises that will make you better now, and add some well needed youth to the fold... this is it.

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#12 Kevin R
January 28 2013, 10:23AM
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Totally agree, Brodie slid very quickly into the top 4, I think he used his time during the lockout well. Butler really didnt fit in the top 4 but he is a solid #5 dman capable of playing 3-4 pairing in an injury pinch. That is valuable & better than Babchuk, better than Smith or Carson for that matter. Is is very cap friendly as well, so there would have to be interest in him. Could we package him up for Oreilly? Horak & Butler for Oreilly? How about Statsny, he seems to be struggling in Colorado with a high price tag, would those 2 be enough to get him & then Colorado could use that money to sign Oreilly?

Back to Butler, you think Philly or LA would give a 1st for him. They both seem to have holes on the blueline, especially Philly with their injuries. That would sure appease everyone for the return on Regehr.

Before I get too excited about our lineup Saturday, lets see them against some better teams like Chicago & St Louis. As ticked as I am about where Sven is playing, I do agree he would be better playing #1 line, #1 PP in Abbottsford until the injuries start to take over our lineup.

I see no one is talking about Phaneufs start this year, seems like if he's not firing rockets & braking his team mates arms, hes -3 on the game. Wonder how long the Captain is going to keep getting the get out of jail free cards. He seemed fairly close to Burke, wonder if that scenario has affected his play.

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#13 Michael
January 28 2013, 10:25AM
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Some good signs on Saturday, but then again, we beat a team that should finish beneath us in the standings.

I'm looking for Feb to get a better idea of what we have, between Feb 2nd and Feb 20th we are basically playing every second night. Its going to be a grind, and a good way to seperate the men from the boys.

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#14 Ed Ward
January 28 2013, 10:32AM
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@Michael

Another good sign came from Cam Charron's team PDO numbers. Calgary is near the bottom with a .968 so it looks like we've been getting a little unlucky.

Hopefully we see some regression to the mean and some better results will follow.

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#15 Stockley
January 28 2013, 10:38AM
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@bookofloob

Snagging one of Mackinnon or Jones would definitely make a lost season easier to digest. Anyone else wonder if Jones/Wotherspoon could be as effective in the NHL as they are for Portland? I know I'm dreaming, Flames are likely to play just well enough to screw themselves out of a good pick again.

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#16 bookofloob
January 28 2013, 10:40AM
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Stockley wrote:

Snagging one of Mackinnon or Jones would definitely make a lost season easier to digest. Anyone else wonder if Jones/Wotherspoon could be as effective in the NHL as they are for Portland? I know I'm dreaming, Flames are likely to play just well enough to screw themselves out of a good pick again.

I never EVER endorse tanking to get the pick. If the Flames suck on their own merits, so be it, but if they're legitimately in the hunt for the playoffs, might as well do what you can to get it.

In which case, /buys Flames O'Reilly jersey

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#17 TheRealPoc
January 28 2013, 10:44AM
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The longer this Subban situation drags out in Montreal, is he worth inquiring about? I don't know what their true valuation of him really is, but is there any way we could put together a package that comes close?

In theory, a top 4 that includes Bouwmeester, Giordano and Subban (along with another, ahem, well-paid defenceman who shall remain nameless) would look mighty fine.

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#18 Stockley
January 28 2013, 10:44AM
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@bookofloob

I wasn't suggesting the team should tank intentionally, so I'm with you on that one. If nothing else I'm loving the Flames ability to push back this year and at least play some entertaining hockey. As a fan of hockey's entertainment factor I'd rather see them lose a fun game to the Ducks 5-4 than win every game 2-1 because Kipper stood on his head and the team trapped.

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#19 Colin.S
January 28 2013, 10:48AM
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I think its a catch 22, I think the team could be bad enough on its own that the draft pick we get could be easily in the top 10. However to acquire O'Reily it would more than likely require that 1st rounder, however WITH O'Reily I think we could be a playoff contending team, not like top 6, but easily a 7 or 8 seed(if we didn't have to give back any of the bigger peices of our current team in a deal).

With O'Reily being an actual center and could center our top line, that leave Backlund to anchor a second line and if you can pair him with some other good possesion forwards it could be a good line, and that leaves us with a lot of other depth, dare I say it, this team could actually be GOOD, especially if we seem more of Saturdays Bouwmeester.

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#20 backburner
January 28 2013, 10:50AM
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@TheRealPoc

Subban is interesting, I think he plays with a lot of passion.. but I think the Flames have too much money tied up with Wideman, J Bo and Giordano already...

I would rather see that money go to a much needed Center.

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#21 Stockley
January 28 2013, 10:51AM
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@Colin.S

If O'Reilly could win even half his draws the team would probably be better. Faceoffs still seem to be a huge issue for the Flames.

I hope Hartley's trust in Bo and the green light to rush and try to create offence continues. He's always been a talented player, would be nice for everyone if he'd play well enough for a full season to make all of those 'overrated' whispers go away.

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#22 backburner
January 28 2013, 10:53AM
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@Colin S

Not necessarily a first rounder... I think a combination of a top six forward, a top four defender and some prospects to acquire O'Reilly..

Butler, Horak and Ferland for example..

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#23 Colin.S
January 28 2013, 11:00AM
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backburner wrote:

@Colin S

Not necessarily a first rounder... I think a combination of a top six forward, a top four defender and some prospects to acquire O'Reilly..

Butler, Horak and Ferland for example..

That is a HORRIBLE trade for the Avs, seriously, you are very much over rating our guys. Horak is good, but he is no top 6 center at this poin, Butler I REALLY like, but is he truly a top four defender, I think he could be, but being a healthy scratch these last couple games doesn't help and Ferland is palying in the WHL after going down the AHL and ECHL route, doesn't exactly scream great prospect.

It's gonna take a lot more than that to get a pretty well bona fide #1 center.

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#24 Stockley
January 28 2013, 11:06AM
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@Colin.S

I don't know that I consider O'Reilly a bonafide number 1. For the Flames he might be, on a really good team he's a number 2 at best. I still wouldn't cry to acquire him of course, but he's only had the one really good year offensively. Let him put up a couple more before he's a legit number 1.

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#25 backburner
January 28 2013, 11:17AM
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@Colin S

It might take more than that, but the Avs don't want to sign O'Reilly because they're cheap, and don't want to spend the money.

They also don't want to take on more salary via trade (Cammellari, J Bo for example)

Butler is affordable... maybe isn't a legit top four, Horak isn't a top six, but he has potential to be for sure... and Ferland is not quite there but he has a combination of grit and skill which makes him valuable. Fine, throw in a 3rd if it makes it better... my point is that they don't need to give up a first for O'Reilly.

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#26 the-wolf
January 28 2013, 11:59AM
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As for the game, calgary played well. But the Oilers did not look like the same team that played Thurs against LA. Looked they were skatin gin quicksand after the first 120 seconds. That team doesn't yet realize it's own potential or, far more significantly, how to play a team game. Also, Dubnyk will never cut it as a bonafide #1 so admit it already and get yourselves a real goaltender. Ottwa has like, 3 of them.

I like the lines you have Kent except I'd switch GlenX and Cammi's spots. Cammi has disappointed hugely for me.

What happened to all the Butler love that was here last year? Now the guy is trash?

I always said that JBO largely carried him last year on the top pairing, but the guy is still a decent defender. It's not like Calgary is swimming in quality D-men.

So what's Hartley's issue with him?

If I'm the Avs and move O'Reilly, what would I want? Brodie and Backlund. It's an overall fair deal if you look at it objectively, but how many Flames fans could stomach that?

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#27 TheRealPoc
January 28 2013, 12:12PM
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I didn't post a ton around these parts last year, but you wouldn't have found any love for Butler from me. He's a young guy who was thrust into a really difficult scenario upon arrival, but that shouldn't entirely absolve him of blame; he was downright atrocious at times last season, probably our club's most consistent turnstile. It baffles me how an otherwise strong skater isn't able to figure out how to time his pivots properly to angle out forwards off the rush.

In the two games J-Bo's been relieved of his babysitting duties, he's looked exceptionally strong. That's as good an argument as I can find for keeping Butler off the ice. Probably time to start shopping him, as Kent said.

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#28 seve927
January 28 2013, 12:49PM
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Well you're definitely closer than backburner, but that's too much as far as I'm concerned. I'd much rather give up a first and a third than those two. If you got a Brodie with a first round pick this year (assuming it wasn't a top 5), you'd have done well, and a Backlund with a 3rd - even better. And our guys are NHL ready. No way that's an overall fair deal.

I agree on the D depth, but I think the question is, if he's going to be in the press box, would it not be better to get some value?

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#29 FireOnIce
January 28 2013, 01:07PM
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@the-wolf

Avs are busting with depth at D and have been casting off their spare parts in the last year or two. I doubt they'd want/need Brodie, but I could be wrong.

Although I like the idea of O'Reilly being a Flame, he's got injury issues now. He was hurt in the KHL, came back, and got hurt again (foot I believe). They terminated his contract - this can be read one of two ways. Either he's REALLY hurt, or he wants to be back in the NHL.

Give him the $4M for 3 or 4 years that he wants. That's basically YouMustBe Jokinen money.

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#30 the-wolf
January 28 2013, 01:11PM
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seve927 wrote:

Well you're definitely closer than backburner, but that's too much as far as I'm concerned. I'd much rather give up a first and a third than those two. If you got a Brodie with a first round pick this year (assuming it wasn't a top 5), you'd have done well, and a Backlund with a 3rd - even better. And our guys are NHL ready. No way that's an overall fair deal.

I agree on the D depth, but I think the question is, if he's going to be in the press box, would it not be better to get some value?

I think that was a reply to me, so I'll respond.

The real issue is our lack of depth when it comes to young, skilled players.

But tell me, hypothetically, if Brodie and Backlund were members of the Flyers and you saw them make that trade, would you still balk?

Backlund's upside is a 2C, which he hasn't hit yet. Brodie is realistically a 2nd pairing D on a contending club. O'Reilly's upside is a 1C, and granted, he hasn't hit that yet either. But his upside is higher than either Backlund's or Brodie's individually.

So, in effect, you're trading 2nd liners for a 1st.

Now, keep in mind, I never said I'd do that if I was Calgary. I would not. But that's what I'd ask for if I were the Avs.

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#31 T&A4Flames
January 28 2013, 01:14PM
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Hey guys. How was the weekend for our prospects?

As for O'Reilly, I'm not sold on him. I wouldn't sell the farm to get him. If we were going to offer a 1st I would see about offering a conditional 1st that we get to say either this year or 2014. I think their D looks brutal but I can't say I watch a lot of COL games. To me it seems that they could use a Butler. I would include him but aside from that, I would really only include spare parts like Stajan (less actual $ than cap hit & a legit (barely) NHL'r) Byron, maybe Horak, Babchuk etc.

I don't think COL would want to trade him within the div. anyway.

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#32 the-wolf
January 28 2013, 01:15PM
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FireOnIce wrote:

Avs are busting with depth at D and have been casting off their spare parts in the last year or two. I doubt they'd want/need Brodie, but I could be wrong.

Although I like the idea of O'Reilly being a Flame, he's got injury issues now. He was hurt in the KHL, came back, and got hurt again (foot I believe). They terminated his contract - this can be read one of two ways. Either he's REALLY hurt, or he wants to be back in the NHL.

Give him the $4M for 3 or 4 years that he wants. That's basically YouMustBe Jokinen money.

Not sure if you can ever have too many skilled D, but point taken.

It's hard to swap young players for young players, especially with such a close rival.

I guess my point is that if the Avs do trade him, it won't be for cheap.

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#33 Jeff In Lethbridge
January 28 2013, 01:16PM
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@Colin.S

from henceforth & forever more, Bouwmeester's (alter ego?) shall be known as "Saturday's Bouwmeester".

O'Reily can effectively be considered part of both a 'win now' and a 'rebuild' strategy, not? problem solved, but expect to pay richly for the Av's leading scorer... a first, a good roster player and a high prospect at minimum I am guessing... then a boat load of cash and years and NTC for the kid himself.

Also, we won't have to wait long for a real test, hello Hawk's this saturday, after the Av's. Better win 2 of the next 3.

The comment section going deafeningly quiet on Saturday's GDT at about post 200 was awesome.

Spoiling the Oiler fan's party is even better then the win itself. ;-)

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#34 Kevin R
January 28 2013, 01:22PM
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the-wolf wrote:

As for the game, calgary played well. But the Oilers did not look like the same team that played Thurs against LA. Looked they were skatin gin quicksand after the first 120 seconds. That team doesn't yet realize it's own potential or, far more significantly, how to play a team game. Also, Dubnyk will never cut it as a bonafide #1 so admit it already and get yourselves a real goaltender. Ottwa has like, 3 of them.

I like the lines you have Kent except I'd switch GlenX and Cammi's spots. Cammi has disappointed hugely for me.

What happened to all the Butler love that was here last year? Now the guy is trash?

I always said that JBO largely carried him last year on the top pairing, but the guy is still a decent defender. It's not like Calgary is swimming in quality D-men.

So what's Hartley's issue with him?

If I'm the Avs and move O'Reilly, what would I want? Brodie and Backlund. It's an overall fair deal if you look at it objectively, but how many Flames fans could stomach that?

No chance I would do Brodie & Backlund in a deal for Oreilly. Brodie is our lone proven bluechip on our blueline going forward. Heard from a buddy that the lastest chatter from Simmons bouncing around was Sven & a 2nd for Oreilly. I know the kid had a good year last year but is he really that good?? I wouldnt want to give Sven away, especially to a division rival.

Butler is a real solid 5th dman & if he was played in the 5-6 spot last year, I think people would be fine with his game. That Fistric got a 3rd from the Oilers, how does he compare to Butler. I think Butler has more upside to a 3-4 pairing but I like the size & meanness he brought. Kindof what we are expecting from Sarich but personally I wouldnt mind have that kid in our 5-6 pairing.

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#35 RexLibris
January 28 2013, 01:33PM
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@the-wolf

I'll agree that the Oilers were playing terribly. I wasn't at all happy with the scheme or the decision-making out there. The legs looked slow and there were a lot of pretty, individual plays that amounted to nothing.

As for Dubnyk, I'd hold off on declaring him just yet. If he is struggling, so are many other, more highly-thought-of goaltenders around the league right now.

Brodie and Backlund for O'Reilly seems pretty decent. It is a lot, but the Avalanche aren't going to just give him away. Wait, this is Greg Sherman's team right? Okay, never mind.

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#36 RKD
January 28 2013, 02:36PM
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The Flames looked great Saturday night. Jay-Bo was a beast and Hudler looks great. Cervenka looks like an NHLer. However, it's only one game, the Flames need to play like this against other teams.

The good news is that O'Reilly will not play Thursday night, regardless if he signs a contract in the next 3 days.

Sat. night will be a huge test to play Chicago, that team is scary good right now. Crawford has been pretty solid so far.

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#37 Sincity1976
January 28 2013, 02:39PM
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What about Tanguay for O'Reilly?

Tanguay returns to his rookie team and helps them get into the playoffs now. Calgary gets a top 6 2-way C.

Seems to make sense to me. (And Tanguay wasn't skating today - though they reported it as a routine maintenance day).

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#38 ChinookArch
January 28 2013, 02:44PM
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@the-wolf

"What happened to all the Butler love that was here last year? Now the guy is trash?"

I like Butler A LOT better than Cory Sarich, but Feaster may have just handcuffed his coach's hands on this one. I'm sure it was pretty embarrassing to Feaster last season, to have Brent Sutter sit Babchuk at the beginning of the season. Right after the GM signs him to an inflated $2M contract with a NTC to boot, Sutter sits him and has very little use for PL3 as well. I don't claim to know the internal dynamics of the Flames management team, but another $2M (for 2 years) mistake again, doesn't look good on his resume.

In general, I agree with your assessment though. We may need the depth a defence, and Butler can play.

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#39 seve927
January 28 2013, 02:48PM
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the-wolf wrote:

I think that was a reply to me, so I'll respond.

The real issue is our lack of depth when it comes to young, skilled players.

But tell me, hypothetically, if Brodie and Backlund were members of the Flyers and you saw them make that trade, would you still balk?

Backlund's upside is a 2C, which he hasn't hit yet. Brodie is realistically a 2nd pairing D on a contending club. O'Reilly's upside is a 1C, and granted, he hasn't hit that yet either. But his upside is higher than either Backlund's or Brodie's individually.

So, in effect, you're trading 2nd liners for a 1st.

Now, keep in mind, I never said I'd do that if I was Calgary. I would not. But that's what I'd ask for if I were the Avs.

Took me a few rereads, but I think I get what you're saying. The Flames don't have the youth to make a trade with the Avs. The Avs don't want salary, we would need to get rid of salary. They want young, relatively cheap quality (though I don't know how cheap Backlund and Brodie will be next year either).

That's probably true. So the offer sheet is probably the best option. But then, if this season works as the Flames hope, they're going to have a lot of fairly expensive free agents they're going to want to sign - Cervenka, Backlund, Brodie, Iginla - plus Ramo. The cap will quickly come into play. O'Reilly probably means you lose at least one, if not two off that list.

Still wouldn't call that trade equal value though;)

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#40 BurningSensation
January 28 2013, 03:16PM
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The word on O'Reilly is that the Av's want a similar package as to what Phoenix got for Kyle Turris, a good young player (Rundblad) and a 2nd rnd pick.

Calgary's morning show guys were floating a Backlund + a 2nd offer, but I like Backlund enough to prefer not to include him.

Baertschi should be untouchable at this point.

My offer would be something like;

One of (in order of my preference to include them in the deal);

Horak (won't happen), Byron (won't happen), Nemisz (won't happen), Granlund, Seiloff, Wotherspoon, Brossoit (my best offer)

and a 2nd rnd pick.

If it was Gaudreau and a 2nd, I would break things, swear, piss on the carpet in rage, and then make the deal.

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#41 Ryan Pike
January 28 2013, 04:26PM
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If you get O'Reilly you probably NEED to move a contract out to make room, as well as probably rid yourself of an NHL body up-front so you don't have too many forwards in Calgary.

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#42 Jai Kiran
January 28 2013, 04:26PM
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I think O'Reilly is terrific. But to me, if Backlund's a #2 centre who hasn't hit his ceiling yet, O'Reilly's a #2 centre who's come pretty close to his ceiling. And I am sure not trading Johnny Hockey to a team we play 6 times a year. I guess I'm one of those guys who overvalues our prospects: I kinda believe Sven and Gaudreau could play wing on a number 1 line someday.

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#43 loudogYYC
January 28 2013, 06:11PM
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I'd offer Granlund, a 2014 2nd, Niemisz and Stajan for O'Rielly and a 5th. Stick boy so they can have a "natural centre" that can play now, and I would eat $1M of his salary, that way we don't have to burn 1 of the 2 available free buy-outs.

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#44 Alt
January 28 2013, 06:24PM
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O Reilly would be a great pick-up ,but not at the cost of a 1st rounder,especially with the new lotto pick for first.

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#45 FireOnIce
January 28 2013, 06:55PM
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If Gaudreau got traded, especially to the Avs, I will burn down the Saddledome myself. Or at least get drunk and yell about it downtown somewhere. That would be an awful trade.

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#46 Potlicker
January 28 2013, 07:57PM
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loudogYYC wrote:

I'd offer Granlund, a 2014 2nd, Niemisz and Stajan for O'Rielly and a 5th. Stick boy so they can have a "natural centre" that can play now, and I would eat $1M of his salary, that way we don't have to burn 1 of the 2 available free buy-outs.

I would do Granlund,2014 2nd and Stajan, but I would cover 50% of the contract especially if we were going to buy it out anyway & punt on Nemitz, I dont think they would even want him either. Maybe Byron might intrigue them but I doubt it. Wonder if Ottawa would trade Bishop for Butler?

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#47 Sincity1976
January 29 2013, 12:08AM
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In terms of value I think the Turris one is a good comparison. Turris has a higher ceiling and wasn't demanding the big contract. But O'Reilly is more proven.

If that is the value Calgary doesn't have the goods. Runblad was traded for a mid 1st the season prior and was having a break out season in the SEL at the time of the trade. Players like Horak, Granlund, Wotherspoon, etc aren't even in the conversation.

The only guys we have in the conversation are Backlund, Baertschi, Brodie, Gaudreau, and Jankowski. And realistically I don't think any of those guys get it done outside of Baertschi, which is over payment.

That said, why oh why oh why would Colorado want picks and prospects? They made a 20-point leap from the season before and O'Reilly was their points leader. If they can't sign O'Reilly then wouldn't they want to replace him as well as they could?

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#48 the-wolf
January 29 2013, 06:59AM
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Sincity1976 wrote:

In terms of value I think the Turris one is a good comparison. Turris has a higher ceiling and wasn't demanding the big contract. But O'Reilly is more proven.

If that is the value Calgary doesn't have the goods. Runblad was traded for a mid 1st the season prior and was having a break out season in the SEL at the time of the trade. Players like Horak, Granlund, Wotherspoon, etc aren't even in the conversation.

The only guys we have in the conversation are Backlund, Baertschi, Brodie, Gaudreau, and Jankowski. And realistically I don't think any of those guys get it done outside of Baertschi, which is over payment.

That said, why oh why oh why would Colorado want picks and prospects? They made a 20-point leap from the season before and O'Reilly was their points leader. If they can't sign O'Reilly then wouldn't they want to replace him as well as they could?

Agreed, which is why I suggested 2 players with lower ceilings for 1 player with a higher ceiling.

But overall, the dynamics to make this trade happen just don't seem to be there with Calgary.

I don't think the Avs would enjoy the potentail of gettting roasted by O'Reilly half a dozen times a year either.

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#49 Chris McNally
January 29 2013, 11:47AM
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vowswithin wrote:

I must say I have wondered how he pulled off 24 goals and 22 assists in 77 games for the islander. I guess he must have has some great luck and been playing with some decent players.

It's too bad he hasn't been able to return himself to former glory as of yet... if he could somehow get back to business he might really provide some 4th line depth.

As an Islanders fan I can tell you this, the majority of Blake Comeau's points in 10-11 actually came on the third line.

Comeau's attributes are most useful in the open ice. He has great speed from end to end and can lead a rush nicely. He's also a really good penalty killer.

His biggest drawback, like Kent said, is his head. He makes a lot of questionable decisions.

For a guy who can lay a big hit from time to time, he's not a grinder. Comeau hates physicaility when its not coming from him making a check. He doesn't do well in the corners or in front of the net.

I would say 20 of his 24 goals that year came from him shooting off the rush or him sitting between the faceoff circles in the open ice waiting for a pass to come off the boards.

He's the kind of guy that can flourish in the perfect situation, but ONLY in the perfect situation. I actually think he would benefit from more of a 4th line like the one against the Oilers with Baertschi and Jones. I know it's not the best situation for Baertschi, but that style of line would suit Comeau.

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