Flames Fan Ask - October 12, 2013

Christian Roatis
October 12 2013 10:44AM

 

 

Our popular (it's popular right?) segment Fan Ask is back for another week! This week we'll talk 4 goal celly's, Monahan and the Flames' hot start - nothing really out of left field. If you want to submit a question that will appear in this weekly feature, submit something here.
 
So let's start with Jumbo Joe:

What are your thoughts on Botchford publishing Thornton's quote?
 
Ok, so before I answer this, for the six of you that don't know what happened, here's a little back story:
 
San Jose Sharks captain Patrick Marleau was partaking in a media scrum in the Sharks locker room and was inevitably asked about teammate Tomas Hertl's 4 goal night and the between the legs shot he used on his fourth goal. Thornton overheard the question and was probably sick and tired of his teammates having to answer the same asinine question about it threw in his two cents.
 
Note: Since we here at FN are a family friendly website and my mom is looking over my shoulder as a type this, I've replaced any expletive words with "Jumbo Joe". Also because it's more fun this way.
 
He first hollers at the reporters to "Shut up" and when the scrum turns to him, he tastefully adds “I’d have my Jumbo Joe out if I scored four goals. I’d have my Jumbo Joe out, Jumbo Joe-ing it.” Interesting. How do I do that celly in NHL 14?
 
Now, I've been in locker rooms as a player and this doesn't even come close to touching the type of stuff said in there. After all, boys will be boys and there isn't a time we show it more than in the locker room. Nothing is off limits, however it's said with the expectation it stays within the confines of the room. Obviously the minor hockey I played didn't come with the media parade that accomponies NHL teams but every single reporter in every single NHL city has heard these types of remarks from players and no one has reported it - obviously because they realize that, like Vegas, what happens in the locker room stays in the locker room.
 
So you can plant me firmly in the, "Botchford published the quote for the page hits and attention" group because that's exactly why I think he did it. He's undoubtedly heard this stuff thousands of times during his career so why did he choose to go public with this particular one? I don't know, maybe his views have been down recently but point is, he shouldn't have done it.
 
Sean Monahan, keep him or send him down?
 
Keep him. Not because he leads the team in scoring or because he's a good sell for the fans, but because he's ready to play in the NHL and he'll develop better in the NHL than the OHL. Looking at his game through 5 games, there are only two things I can pick out as weaknesses in his game: One being face-offs and the other being the occasional slip up in the defensive zone - whether it be a lost assignment or puck battle.
 
Starting on the faceoff front, he won't get better at facing off against NHL calibre centerman in the OHL, plain and simple.
 
The defensive zone issue should also be viewed in the same manner, in my opinion. He was praised for his effort in his own third of the ice last year in the OHL so sending him back will only yield the same result and stagnate his development. Yeah, it won't hurt him but it won't benefit him either. Defending against, again, NHL calibre forwards and learning on the fly in the show is the best way of going about it for a physically mature Monahan. I'm also willing to bet that the Flames will let him go to the World Junior's in December either way so he won't be missing out on that opportunity.
 
Are you surprised about the Flames' start?
 
I was surprised about the Washington game but after seeing the way they played and that they were keeping the work ethic and commitment to the system consistent, I really wasn't surprised about the outcomes of the other games. Sometimes hard work beats out skill and the 3-0-2 Flames have proved just that.
 
Do you think the hot start puts a damper on the rebuild and the quest for a top pick?
 
Ok, so I'll answer this in two parts,
 
1) The hot start accelerates the rebuild rather than hurts it because they've established an identity and culture, and thankfully in the process have avoided being caught in the situation the Oilers find themselves in of being so used to losing without consequence that when it comes time to actually win, they can't really find it in them to compete. At the end of the day the Flames will more than likely find themselves outside of the playoff picture, but at least they something really tangible to build off of.
 
2) Technically collecting points hurts their odds of finishing last but who cares?! They're winning games and putting on a heck of a show doing so.

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Christian Roatis is a European by birth, Calgarian by heart. Other than writing at FlamesNation, he writes about and scouts NHL Draft Prospects at Future Considerations. Follow him on Twitter @CRoatis!
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#51 ChinookArch
October 13 2013, 09:27AM
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beloch wrote:

Re: The Flames likely performance this season

The Flames are in the top third of the league for PDO, but their PDO is about the same as Toronto's was last season. The Flames' shooting percentage is in the top ten but goal-tending is bottom-ten. Calgary sh% is currently higher than Toronto's was last season, which was the highest in the league. We can expect it to regress a little. However, the goal-tending isn't likely to improve with MacBackup in net.

In short, Calgary has been good so far, but also lucky. For this team to keep winning when their luck turns, Ramo needs to play and he needs to be good.

I've been curious about Calgary's PDO so far, so thanks. It's reflective of exactly what I suspected. I don't have clear read on Bob Hartley at this point, so it's difficult to see what he is doing with his clear preference for MacDonald in net.

It's a stretch I know, but the only thing that makes logical sense is that the team is auditioning MacDoald for a trade. I say logical, because you would expect Hartly's number one concern is winning and MacDoanld cannot be viewed as his best chance of doing so. As I see it, there are 3 interchangeable goalies (Ramo, Berra, and MacDonald) in the stable plus 3 longterm projects (Brossoit, Gillies, and Ortio). This team does not need MacDonald and may want to get some asset back.

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#52 Baalzamon
October 13 2013, 10:25AM
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@coachedpotatoe

Your opinion of who is "young" is... interesting. Ben Street is older than Backlund (2 years), Galiardi (1 year), and Russell (~3 months). And yet, Backlund is only an honourable mention, and Galiardi and Russell are ignored completely.

Is it possible you meant inexperienced?

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#53 please cancel acct
October 13 2013, 10:50AM
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@ChinookArch

Hope you're right.A 4th round pick for Macdonald would be a WIN for management.

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#54 please cancel acct
October 13 2013, 10:53AM
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In other news ,sure glad we didn't trade Iginla for Bernier last year.

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#55 Kevin R
October 13 2013, 11:30AM
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Walter white wrote:

@ Clyde

Stop insinuating that he IS a Worthwhile prospect....much too early to tell.

I'm a big fan of all of our prospects, and hope they all make the show, but that should not get in the way of looking at the stats........albeit only 6 games in. WW

Then stop judging them with small sample sizes. Also what are you comparing to & evaluating on? Obviously this kid is a shut down dman, those stats you spewed should say that's fantastic. If he was 1st PP & all OS maybe you might expect different numbers. I love how stats compliment discussing players. I think as time goes by you will really be able to make reasonable profile & predictions of performance. Right now, its starting to be looked at more by Joe fan but it ticks me off when many quickly judge & pigeon hole young players like you seem to be. There are going to be players that score top of the class on all the numbers & stats one year only to see them crap the bed the next year. When you deal with human behavior you just cannot ignore environmental factors in performance. This is true in sports & in the workplace. It is also in health, we call it stress.

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#56 coachedpotatoe
October 13 2013, 11:39AM
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@Baalzamon

I didn't go and look at their birthdates but was thinking of young based upon NHL experience, both Galiardi and Russell and came from outside the organization since the rebuild beagn as to not be part of the equation that I was speaking of. I was also really looking at in my mind that we have up front, DJ, Stemp, Hudler, Glencross, Jackman, McG, Stajan and Cammi (yes I know they are injured)am I missing anyone? On D we have 7 NHL experienced players with only TJB being part of the rebuild. My point is that we are not as inexperienced as many would like to believe and this has helped start the rebuild in a more softer manner. I suspect that as the season goes on and Feaster and company decide to shift Cammi, Staj and others we will become that younger team. If one wishes to nit pick everyones choice of words then this site will become ugly fast, so I will not. Have a great thanksgiving.

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#57 Walter white
October 13 2013, 12:54PM
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@ Kevin R

Settle down Kevin, leave your work baggage at work, this is a hockey blog, the stress you are referring to comes from bringing your work home with you... Hockey and other sports are meant to take your mind off work stress.

Look at the bright side; has one goal already this year, that's one more than he had the 2 previous years combined!!

On a related note; I'm actually a big Kanzig fan...and a realist.

W

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#58 Jeff Lebowski
October 13 2013, 03:08PM
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SoCalFlamesFan wrote:

I read on this site that the Flames were "unlucky" last year, according to "advanced stats" maybe its a returning to an average and a "lucky" 1st half this year. How about we enjoy it and stop hunting for storm-clouds to hide the silver linings.

It's the killjoy personality of FN. Everything is a constant reminder of the inevitable regression to the mean.

We get it. We know the Flames will eventually have some regulation losses.

At a time that has been difficult for many with the floods, the team spirit, youthful energy and positive feelings Calgary's start has elicited has been a source of joy.

The FN writers (for the most part) and their sycophant commenters are more interested in tamping down the fun. They just love being critics. To be clear, it is nice to have balance. There is a place for it. It's just FN seemingly never writes about positive aspects. I think, because they hate Feaster.

Alas, it is page hits and traffic ie time to get paid.

I can't judge them because we all have things to work on. Also, the idea of wanting data to justify things is generally a good way to operate. However, having fun, enjoying the moment is also good.

Stats can be used to write an article on how rare 23 is doing and how we should be enjoying it unfold rather than the constant buzzkill that they CHOOSE to write about.

There will be plenty of negatives to dissect. But when it's going good, why not enjoy?

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#59 beloch
October 13 2013, 04:32PM
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@Jeff Lebowski

Some people enjoy digging beneath the foam-finger waving surface of fandom and trying to understand more about the game, the teams, the players, and the support staff. Advanced stats are one way to do that. Attempting to make accurate predictions (and arguing about them, of course) is the truest test of our knowledge. To some this makes us sound like kill-joys who can't allow even ourselves to enjoy a good running streak. I assure you that we enjoy winning as much as anyone.

If you just want optimism, go read mainstream sports journalism such as the Herald's sport section. This blog is the wrong place for you. If I'm a sycophant, you're a damned dirty troll!

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#60 Jeff Lebowski
October 13 2013, 04:50PM
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beloch wrote:

Some people enjoy digging beneath the foam-finger waving surface of fandom and trying to understand more about the game, the teams, the players, and the support staff. Advanced stats are one way to do that. Attempting to make accurate predictions (and arguing about them, of course) is the truest test of our knowledge. To some this makes us sound like kill-joys who can't allow even ourselves to enjoy a good running streak. I assure you that we enjoy winning as much as anyone.

If you just want optimism, go read mainstream sports journalism such as the Herald's sport section. This blog is the wrong place for you. If I'm a sycophant, you're a damned dirty troll!

What you enjoy winning is the argument that Feaster sucks. It's clear you don't want to acknowledge Flame success because that means giving Feaster credit.

This Feaster bashing is the extent of your 'content'.

As for advanced stats? You don't bring anything interesting. Re hashing stats over and over, regression to mean.

You don't add anything to 'stats'. When you do try to innovate we get..... Icing differential.

Trust me, I know about the value of AS in sports. Hockey is more complex than the stats here can explain.

Corsi. The shot is the loudest signal you can look for. Counting it, and turning into a stat around which most content is generated is weak. No info about nuance of game.

CGY V MTL 15 scoring chances 29 total shots

15 scoring area shots, 14 non scoring chance shots

Corsi differentiates between those shots used in its calculation? Nope. Yet you guys tell us what's happening underneath? You have no clue.

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#61 beloch
October 13 2013, 05:29PM
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@Jeff Lebowski

I didn't come up with icing differential. In fact, if you look at the thread where it was brought up I bashed it. You seem to be railing against everyone here with absolutely zero appreciation of the debate that goes on. Yes, advanced stats don't tell the whole story, but they're an improvement on the counting stats we grew up with. Saying that stats can't capture the complexity of hockey is a worse than useless assertion.

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#62 SeanCharles
October 13 2013, 05:33PM
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Mangotanker wrote:

Don Cherry saying that he didn't like what Hertl did, and since Herti's from the Czech Republic he didn't know hockey players aren't supposed to play the game like that. Gimme a break, it's a freaking game. If Hertl wants to embarrass Biron, Lundqvist, or whoevers in net with a move, I as a fan want to see it. It's what sells the game, and I loved Hertl's move. Sick of Cherry.

Cherry was saying how he was laughing after he scored the goal is what he didn't like. Not the goal.

I know Cherry has some views that are debatable but his point was he shouldn't embarrass the other goalie by laughing after he scored, then he showed Jaime Benn with a straight face after he scored.

I think Cherry likes skill in the game but also respect. You don't rub a goal like that in the team/goalies face by laughing afterwards.

That's what Cherry said Hertl didn't understand due to being in the Czech league, not scoring pretty goals...

I know Cherry's an easy target sometimes but he actually made an astute point not one to be ridiculed....

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#63 Jeff Lebowski
October 13 2013, 05:38PM
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beloch wrote:

I didn't come up with icing differential. In fact, if you look at the thread where it was brought up I bashed it. You seem to be railing against everyone here with absolutely zero appreciation of the debate that goes on. Yes, advanced stats don't tell the whole story, but they're an improvement on the counting stats we grew up with. Saying that stats can't capture the complexity of hockey is a worse than useless assertion.

Yes. I am lumping you all together. The actual debate I commented on was about appreciating Calgary's and 23's good play. How FN spoils it all with yet another, regression to the mean take. Then you showed up.

If you agree with how unsophisticated advanced stats are (even though better than counting) why do you use it to defend points with certainty? Why do you think it gives you some authority of the game to talk down to people who don't see things like you? Or to bash Feaster or others?

In one article, the variance of 23 streak explained away by luck. Wasn't he unlucky during streak too? And then to use Corsi and not apply the same standards of sample size used to justify the 'for' argument. Disingenuous.

If YOU perhaps questioned things instead of lapped it up perhaps we could have a reasonable debate.

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#64 Baalzamon
October 13 2013, 05:43PM
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@Jeff Lebowski

So um. Why are you here?

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#65 Jeff Lebowski
October 13 2013, 05:56PM
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Baalzamon wrote:

So um. Why are you here?

Existentially? Or do you mean on this site? I'm here to put the smack down on you Debbie Downers.

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#66 Jeff Lebowski
October 13 2013, 05:57PM
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Baalzamon wrote:

So um. Why are you here?

To sing the praises of David Jones vs You.

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#67 Baalzamon
October 13 2013, 06:28PM
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@Jeff Lebowski

Existentially. Obviously.

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#68 Baalzamon
October 13 2013, 06:30PM
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Jeff Lebowski wrote:

To sing the praises of David Jones vs You.

Hey now. I haven't said anything negative about Jones for days. Literally. Days.

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#69 Clyde
October 13 2013, 06:35PM
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Walter white wrote:

@ Clyde

Stop insinuating that he IS a Worthwhile prospect....much too early to tell.

I'm a big fan of all of our prospects, and hope they all make the show, but that should not get in the way of looking at the stats........albeit only 6 games in. WW

Have you seen him or are you just trying to fit in with what was the popular opinion in July? As a 17 year old, he was the top pairing shutdown def. He comes to flames camp in amazing condition and does tremendously well. He is now back in the whl playing 25 minutes a game as an 18 year old and is a plus player playing an intimidating brand of hockey plus appears to be developing some offense. He is a very Worthwhile prospect

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#70 Walter white
October 13 2013, 07:14PM
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@Clyde

What part of "I'm a big Kanzig fan" don't you guys get?? I like the guy and hope he does well! I hope all flames prospects make the show (ok, except Max Reinhart; I can't stand that arrogant , lazy goof living off his last name, minus 26 in Abby last year!! Come on. Maybe we are holding on to him in case Sam comes into play next year??) WW

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#71 jason knapp
October 13 2013, 07:17PM
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I love this porier kid he make flames next year guarantee

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#72 Baalzamon
October 13 2013, 07:19PM
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So Emile Poirier, Johnny Gaudreau, and Bill Arnold all had three points today.

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#73 beloch
October 13 2013, 08:33PM
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@Jeff Lebowski

I didn't just show up. I've commented on Monahan's play after pretty much every game, and it's been positive. The stats say he's still sheltered but doing well, adapting to the NHL at a fantastic pace, and taking on more responsibility every game. You obviously haven't read a thing I've said and are just attacking me because I unwittingly gave you a target.

Well, that's enough feeding the trolls from me. You can have the last word now.

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#74 beloch
October 13 2013, 08:53PM
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jason knapp wrote:

I love this porier kid he make flames next year guarantee

Poirier had a great camp and showed a ton of promise, but I'm betting on at least a year in the AHL first. It's a looooong way from the QMJHL to the NHL! He's a couple months younger than Monahan and, if the QMJHL has the same agreement with the AHL as the CHL, would actually be ineligible to play in the AHL *next* season were he just two weeks older! He's undoubtedly ready for the AHL now though. Those AHL age agreements really seem to delay the occasional prospect.

Kanzig is a player who has a lot of raw tools, size, hockey intelligence, and an elite work ethic. However, he just hasn't put it all together yet, plus his skating is currently a bit of an impediment. Even shut-down defenders usually put up respectable offensive stats in the WHL, so his lack of offense up until now has been a concern. He really looked better offensively in the preseason than his stat-sheet indicated though. I'm willing to wager he will put up some offense this season and his skating will improve substantially by next summer's camp. He's a bit of a high-risk/long-term project, like Janko was when he was drafted, but there is definitely upside far beyond an enforcer there.

Speaking of Jankowski... 2 goals in 2 games so far this season. Promising!

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#75 everton fc
October 13 2013, 10:40PM
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coachedpotatoe wrote:

While most of us are very happy with the results so far I doubt that many of us expect these results to continue, however we should all expect that the work ethic and team effort continues. I here in the media that we are a young team yet when I look at the line up I see the following players as young TJB, Bouma, Street, Monahan, Sven and one could include back's in this list. The rest are players who have been pros elsewhere and are new to the Flames. We still need to see how more of the prospects develop. The Heat lost last night scoring only one goal; Horak and lost in shoot out.(Evidence of a lack of the highly skilled forwards we will need at some point)It seems like some of our prospects need to pick their game up in Abbotsford, Ferland for one played quite well at the rookie tournie and in preseason here but has not seemed to have found his game at the AHL level. He is one guy that I have high hopes for in filling a key roster spot on the big club in a couple of years; power forward who has skills but play a physical game. Much like Bouma but with a higher top end. I also see Poirier in the same light but with his speed and finish at a higher end( he keeps scoring in Q and also takes penalties suggesting he is either physical or taking bad penalties)

I'm glad the big club is playing well and getting some results but in many ways I am more interested in the future and how the kids are developing; especially the forwards. On D I really think we have some prospects who will help fill out the top 6 in the not so distant future.

Keep us posted on things in Abby. I, too, an pulling for Ferland. Has Horak looked good? And has Ferland looked bad?

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#76 McRib
October 14 2013, 12:16AM
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@beloch

Emile Poirier is lighting it up in the QMJHL he will most likely finish Top. 3 in scoring once the year is done as everyone has played a couple more games then him, but still sits 7th (not to mention that he got off a plane and went straight into playing his first game causing him to go pointless, so really has 17 points in 9 games). Jonathan Huberdeau has had a very easy transition to the NHL from the Q winning rookie of the year last year.... The QMJHL is a lot better than it used to be a decade ago for Poirier who is a physically developed skilled forward I would prefer him on the 3/4 line of the big club rather than AHL. The AHL is not a great league for super skilled prospects, it's great for developing future NHL 3/4 liners, but not stars. Poirier skating will also allow him to play up to NHL pace quicker. He will have far to easy of a transition to think he needs a year in AHL. I honestly think only Anthony Mantha will potentially out score him in the Q this season. If Morgan Klimchuk had a bit more help and Sean Monahan went back to junior.. The Flames could very likely have a top scorer in QMJHL (Poirier), OHL (Monahan), WHL (Klimchuk) and NCAA (Gaudreau). Oh the times have changed!!

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#77 SmellOfVictory
October 14 2013, 01:48AM
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Jeff Lebowski wrote:

What you enjoy winning is the argument that Feaster sucks. It's clear you don't want to acknowledge Flame success because that means giving Feaster credit.

This Feaster bashing is the extent of your 'content'.

As for advanced stats? You don't bring anything interesting. Re hashing stats over and over, regression to mean.

You don't add anything to 'stats'. When you do try to innovate we get..... Icing differential.

Trust me, I know about the value of AS in sports. Hockey is more complex than the stats here can explain.

Corsi. The shot is the loudest signal you can look for. Counting it, and turning into a stat around which most content is generated is weak. No info about nuance of game.

CGY V MTL 15 scoring chances 29 total shots

15 scoring area shots, 14 non scoring chance shots

Corsi differentiates between those shots used in its calculation? Nope. Yet you guys tell us what's happening underneath? You have no clue.

Jesus Christ. It's been discussed countless times that there is no statistically significant difference in shot quality, long term, between teams. That means that, for the purposes of determining which team is better than the other offensively or defensively, a shot is a shot.

On the individual level this probably doesn't hold, but it's still a lot better than people arguing anecdotal nonsense and coming to no agreement.

There's also the fact, as per usual, that Corsi is a measurement of possession time. Possession time doesn't depend on how high the quality of a shot is. It just means your team has the puck, which means the other team doesn't, which is a good thing.

There is absolutely nuance to hockey that is not captured in any statistics, but the long and short of it is: shot differentials are a very good indicator of ability level given a proper sample size.

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#78 Nick24
October 14 2013, 01:50AM
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Mangotanker wrote:

Don Cherry saying that he didn't like what Hertl did, and since Herti's from the Czech Republic he didn't know hockey players aren't supposed to play the game like that. Gimme a break, it's a freaking game. If Hertl wants to embarrass Biron, Lundqvist, or whoevers in net with a move, I as a fan want to see it. It's what sells the game, and I loved Hertl's move. Sick of Cherry.

I agree that Cherry suggesting Hertl's play in the Czech Republic is why he didn't understand what to do in this situation, is a load of crap.

However there is a bit of truth to the notion that you shouldn't be trying to embarrass the other team. I think that the between the legs move he pulled is a legitimate move these days and that any NHL forward worth his salt could probably pull it off. That being said, celebrating in the way he did, especially when the score is 9-1 or whatever it was, is something that a hockey player should try not to do.

I was completely okay with the whole play until I thought how I'd feel if that was my goalie in net when that happened and I would have been pretty mad.

I mean good for Hertl for having a four goal night, but its not the first time he has scored and he is going to score again, so show a little respect.

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#79 Devolution
October 14 2013, 05:25AM
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Jeff Lebowski wrote:

It's the killjoy personality of FN. Everything is a constant reminder of the inevitable regression to the mean.

We get it. We know the Flames will eventually have some regulation losses.

At a time that has been difficult for many with the floods, the team spirit, youthful energy and positive feelings Calgary's start has elicited has been a source of joy.

The FN writers (for the most part) and their sycophant commenters are more interested in tamping down the fun. They just love being critics. To be clear, it is nice to have balance. There is a place for it. It's just FN seemingly never writes about positive aspects. I think, because they hate Feaster.

Alas, it is page hits and traffic ie time to get paid.

I can't judge them because we all have things to work on. Also, the idea of wanting data to justify things is generally a good way to operate. However, having fun, enjoying the moment is also good.

Stats can be used to write an article on how rare 23 is doing and how we should be enjoying it unfold rather than the constant buzzkill that they CHOOSE to write about.

There will be plenty of negatives to dissect. But when it's going good, why not enjoy?

Here in Oilerland we dream of a regression to the mean!

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#80 coachedpotatoe
October 14 2013, 08:05AM
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everton fc wrote:

Keep us posted on things in Abby. I, too, an pulling for Ferland. Has Horak looked good? And has Ferland looked bad?

I don't live in Abby but I frequently check their website especially after they play. I also spend some time trying to find out how our other prospects are doing. Unfortunately the Flames in the system is not as user friendly as I would like so it ends up being some work especially with the NCAA kids. It would be great if we had a contact who watches the kids in the various places and share with us their insights. Horak scored in the last game and it seems like Berra is playing well. Grandlund appears to be hurt but I have not found out what type of injury it might be. I like to think into the future and see what might be.

My observations using the most basic of stats is that we have some very good prospects outside the AHL. WE need to see them play more games before we assess them properly. Obviously Poirier is playing exceptionally well 17 points in 10 games. The college kids have not played enough games to get to excited about their stats yet. Do we have anyone in Flames Nations who is in Abby or contacts there.

As for all the discussion about advanced stats and Monahan playing protected minutes. I wonder how many other first year players who have been successful as rookies had the same experience; I suspect many. I would also suggest that this is good coaching. Again I believe that good coaching has many of these insights without all the stats; they may even have other stats that they use to confirm their insights. I am not against all the stats on this sight but they can and do lead to some disturbing discussions that distract from the bigger picture.

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#81 Kypreos
October 14 2013, 08:44AM
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Wow

Getting really sick of the negativity, Feastser bashing going on here. Let it go!

Who really care if Monahan is playing protected minutes, he is 19 years old and played 5 games. Personally I don't care if he has all points on a open net, we have not had this much excitement about a Flames draft pick in a long time.

How about endorsing the flames mini run and how the team has pulled together to play like a team.

You watch the team play and you would swear you are watching the playoffs by how they are playing.

Going to the dome to watch a game has not been this exciting in a long time.

Just enjoy it!

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#82 coachedpotatoe
October 14 2013, 09:24AM
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Kypreos wrote:

Wow

Getting really sick of the negativity, Feastser bashing going on here. Let it go!

Who really care if Monahan is playing protected minutes, he is 19 years old and played 5 games. Personally I don't care if he has all points on a open net, we have not had this much excitement about a Flames draft pick in a long time.

How about endorsing the flames mini run and how the team has pulled together to play like a team.

You watch the team play and you would swear you are watching the playoffs by how they are playing.

Going to the dome to watch a game has not been this exciting in a long time.

Just enjoy it!

Indeed.

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#83 kittensandcookies
October 14 2013, 10:36AM
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Hell I'm totally enjoying that they're winning. They're playing as a team, the young guys are doing things, I'm not watching a bunch of old players float around... I think things will start to tail off eventually but man this is the best Flames hockey in YEARS.

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#84 Baalzamon
October 14 2013, 10:52AM
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@Kypreos

"Getting really sick of the negativity, Feastser bashing going on here. Let it go!"

Please show me where, on this thread, anyone has bashed Feaster. Just one example. Because I'm having tremendous difficulty finding one.

The only bashing going on is Jeff Lebowski lunging at anything that moves.

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#85 Captain Ron
October 14 2013, 11:45AM
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Nick24 wrote:

I agree that Cherry suggesting Hertl's play in the Czech Republic is why he didn't understand what to do in this situation, is a load of crap.

However there is a bit of truth to the notion that you shouldn't be trying to embarrass the other team. I think that the between the legs move he pulled is a legitimate move these days and that any NHL forward worth his salt could probably pull it off. That being said, celebrating in the way he did, especially when the score is 9-1 or whatever it was, is something that a hockey player should try not to do.

I was completely okay with the whole play until I thought how I'd feel if that was my goalie in net when that happened and I would have been pretty mad.

I mean good for Hertl for having a four goal night, but its not the first time he has scored and he is going to score again, so show a little respect.

I think that when he scored on that move his excited celebration was just as much from surprise that it actually went in the net. Youthful exuberance if you will.

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#86 Captain Ron
October 14 2013, 11:55AM
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Jeff In Lethbridge wrote:

nobody even coments on Botchford - hahaha what a loser.

i hope he gets blackballed

If I was looking for a reason to ignore Botchford more that I already do now I have one. The guy really comes across as an arrogant moron. Reporting on that (hilarious) exchange with Thornton in the dressing room is inexcusable. Absolutely can't stand the man. I hope TSN gets rid of that lame studs and duds segment for good and I never see that A holes face on TV again.

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#87 Jeff Lebowski
October 14 2013, 01:18PM
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Baalzamon wrote:

"Getting really sick of the negativity, Feastser bashing going on here. Let it go!"

Please show me where, on this thread, anyone has bashed Feaster. Just one example. Because I'm having tremendous difficulty finding one.

The only bashing going on is Jeff Lebowski lunging at anything that moves.

Look, I respect you and your opinions. The Feaster bashing may not be on THIS particular thread but it IS a constant theme. Lambert- to be fair, he has improved in this regard.

Perhaps even you have had some, less than flattering statements about Feaster.

The larger point I was hinting at was that there is a never ending search to be negatively critical about all things Flames.

While it is enjoyable to look at ways to improve, should we also not celebrate the successes?

It comes down to balance.

By clicking on the past articles one could do an experiment to judge such balance.

When the focus is on being critical, seeking the negatives aren't we just doing what the late, great Townes Van Zandt (If you've never heard of him...Steve Earle called him the greatest songwriter in history)sang,

"Waitin around to die"?

This fanbase wants to celebrate the successes, however ultimately fleeting.

Why crush that? I guess it's just a matter of personality and taste.

-Why do you take things so seriously? Were you really hurt? Why is it ok for people to be harsh on individuals not able (or don't care) to defend themselves on a forums like these (David Jones) and when they are scrutinized (to such a relatively minor way) its

Whaaaaaaa somebody call the whambulance!

In short, stop being such a crybaby.

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#88 kittensandcookies
October 14 2013, 01:41PM
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@Jeff Lebowski

Crazy CP posters have the cheering up to 11, FN can't even come close to dragging that down.

Are they still in denial over there that Iginla didn't fetch 15 first round picks and a re-incarnated Jesus back?

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#89 Jeff Lebowski
October 14 2013, 02:06PM
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SmellOfVictory wrote:

Jesus Christ. It's been discussed countless times that there is no statistically significant difference in shot quality, long term, between teams. That means that, for the purposes of determining which team is better than the other offensively or defensively, a shot is a shot.

On the individual level this probably doesn't hold, but it's still a lot better than people arguing anecdotal nonsense and coming to no agreement.

There's also the fact, as per usual, that Corsi is a measurement of possession time. Possession time doesn't depend on how high the quality of a shot is. It just means your team has the puck, which means the other team doesn't, which is a good thing.

There is absolutely nuance to hockey that is not captured in any statistics, but the long and short of it is: shot differentials are a very good indicator of ability level given a proper sample size.

I truly do appreciate the rigor involved in such analysis. I'm really not trying to bash per se, I'm just 'demanding' better analysis.

Now, I could be luddite in this regard but corsi is not a proxy for possession for me.

In the example I used: 15 scoring chance shots, 14 non scoring chance shots, where are those 14 non scoring chance shots coming from? Think of it as 2 buckets of shot type.

When corsi is then tabulated is it taking from the dangerous bucket exclusively?

From what I gather from 'experts' corsi would indicate 'likely' possession.

So, scoring chance shots comprise 52% of total shots 48% non scoring chance.

Is this what likely means?

When you look at corsi (and I'm talking about per game - that was the point, using corsi for an n=1, not n=82) and its some positive number what bucket from above do the shots come from?

I understand the point you are making. It doesn't matter where the shot comes from. Fine. But wouldn't we see this strategy used in a game to the same degree?

I ask myself, what is the goal of the players on the ice - to shoot from anywhere OR to increase their likelihood of scoring by shooting at a closer proximity to the net and from the middle of the ice?

Do you see a large % of shots coming neutral zone (if shot location doesn't matter?)

Do you see teams trying to enter the offensive zone, make plays, POSSESS THE PUCK and create chances from prime locations? What % of the time?

To use an example, what is indicative of true, unquestionable possession:

A foray into the offensive zone, where the puck is cycled, sent low to high and shot on net (scoring chance shot) OR A player, heading for a change, crosses centre and fires a wrister on net (non scoring chance shot)

The problem I'm trying to have answered is, if 52% are indicative of the first example can we justifiably assume that is the likely nuance that brought about the shot? Doesn't the 48% show up ever? Yes, yes over the course of the season but that isn't how the stat is used.

Furthermore, FN seems to wait for the numbers (example of 23 first 4 games) to say things like:

'It looked to me like he was be out possessed and corsi (for 4 games) confirms this'

OR put another: I can use confirmation bias with this stat to support my point a posteriori. The opinion, or what you see during the game is shaped AFTER the data is crunched.

IF you used only scoring chance shots for corsi calculations that would be descriptive of who is really controlling the play.

The intention matters. The intention is to create scoring chances. The intention is not to hop over the boards, get the puck on your stick and shoot it from anywhere.

Now, I've seen enough hockey to know about 'shoot from anywhere' (perhaps there are a stat significant amount of goals scored from outside the scoring area - seems wrong though) but the statement that shot location doesn't matter is extremely hard to reconcile when you are watching games (at any level).

I truly do see the value. Just refine it.

PS-The key phrase in your response (to me) is statistically significant. What does that mean exactly? Does the implication lead one to think that there are equal number of goals scored from high % to low % shots OR there is just enough low % shot goals scored that we can 'scientifically' conclude significance? Lets say 10% of total goals are scored from low % shots. Depending on the threshold, you can say that is statistically significant. How you seem to use it is equal probability to score.

OK enough from me. I'M tired of my comments now haha.

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#90 kittensandcookies
October 14 2013, 02:15PM
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Hockey AS is in its infancy. Yes, you should demand better. I don't think right now it's extremely useful, the self-admitted correlation is too low for my liking (2/3... Blech).

But there are some interesting trends, and progress continues. Sure as hell beats GRITCHART.

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#91 Kypreos
October 14 2013, 10:44PM
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Baalzamon wrote:

"Getting really sick of the negativity, Feastser bashing going on here. Let it go!"

Please show me where, on this thread, anyone has bashed Feaster. Just one example. Because I'm having tremendous difficulty finding one.

The only bashing going on is Jeff Lebowski lunging at anything that moves.

Pathetic....

I rest my case...

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#92 Baalzamon
October 14 2013, 11:12PM
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Kypreos wrote:

Pathetic....

I rest my case...

Real mature.

So I take it you couldn't find that example.

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#93 Kypreos
October 15 2013, 08:24PM
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Baalzamon wrote:

Real mature.

So I take it you couldn't find that example.

You know what is pathetic is your knit picking of everyone's comments.

Unreal

FYI

You should really go back and have a look yourself and you will find it...

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