Don't Panic - The Positives of the Flames Start

Kent Wilson
February 04 2013 10:56AM

 

 

After Calgary's gut punch shoot-out loss to the Chicago Blackhawks on Saturday night, the team sits last in the Western Conference with just four points in six games. Despite playing five of their six first games at home, Calgary has won just once in regulation and sports a goal differential of -8, good for second worst in the West ahead of only the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The Flames early going struggles seem to validate fans worst fears heading into the season: that the summer additions were needless and the club is doomed to inexorably spiral into irrelevance and obsolesce before inevitably having to blow it all up and start anew.

The truth, however, is that there are some very clear signs lurking just beneath the surface that the team has improved greatly over the previous Sutter iterations. In fact, the differences in key stats are so stark that it's hard not to be truly excited about the team for the first time in many years.

The Good News

Although Calgary has given up eight more goals than they have scored, the Flames have nevertheless outshot the bad guys in aggregate 203-150 for a +53 shot differential. That's a lot in just six games. In fact, their per game shot rate is second in the league (behind the Carolina Hurricanes) at 33.3 and their shots against per game is second lowest in the league (25.0) behind St. Louis. At +8.3 shots/game the Flames sport the second highest average differential so far after those same St. Louis Blues.

That is a drastic improvement over the Flames last year under Brent Sutter. That team spent altogether too much time in their own zone and they ended up underwater to the tune of -3.3 shots/game. To put that in perspective, the Oilers were at -4.0 shots/game. 

To be fair to Sutter, we're only six games into Hartley's tenure. Still, I don't think I can recall any six game segment under Brent where the Flames put together this kind of dominance in terms of shots and possession. Certainly not last season anyways.

The Flames even strength possession rates have similarly improved. As things stand, only two regular skaters are currently underwater in terms of corsi: Jay Bouwmeester (-2.07/60) and Blake Comueau (-29.60/60), whereas half the team including many of its stars were plumbing the depths by this measure last season. Overall, Calgary is 9th in the league in terms of fenwick close (a stat that corrects for score effects) witha ratio of 52.98. That's better rate than such notable teams as Chicago, Vancouver, Philadelphia, New York Rangers and San Jose.

Why The Improvement?

Before we move on to warnings and caveats, let's discuss why the team seems to be much better at keeping the puck at the good end of the ice this year. The conversation begins with Mikael Backlund.

The third line

In spite of poor counting numbers last season, Backlund was one of the the Flames best possession and chance forwards last season. He has paired with Lee Stempniak to take another big step forward in this regard in 2013 however. The pair are currently leading the club in terms of corsi by a country mile (+35.14/60 and +33.95/60) even though Hartley is very smartly giving each guy more defensive zone than offensive zone face-offs at 5on5. That third line featuring Glencross on the wing humiliated the Hawks on Saturday night again and again and it's faintly astonishing they ended up with zeros across the board.

The Backlund unit is mostly facing other third liners right now, but like the Conroy/Moss/Glencross line from 2008-09, they are absolutely crushing their opponents so far, at least when it comes to dirving the play north.In fact, their play is so strong by this measure so far that it is skewing the rest of the team's relative corsi rating (calculated by subtracting a players on-ice corsi from the team's corsi rate when he is on the bench). So even though Jiri Hudler is +11.48/60 in absolute terms in three games, his relative ccorsi is still -12.9...because the team has been +24.41/60 with him on the bench over that period. Yeesh. 

A better blueline

Dennis Wideman instead of Scott Hannan is the first obvious step here, but the improvements on the back-end are deeper and more pronounced than that. Chris Butler has gone from facing the big boys with Jay Bouwmeester to playing on the third pairing (where he is much more comfortable), mostly because TJ Brodie has jumped into the top-4 rotation and made an immediate impact. The 22-year old sophomore has the second best possession rating on the team behind only Wideman (+15.30/60) and that's likely only because his zone start ratio is six ticks lower than the veterans (50% versus 56.9%).

The insertion of Wideman and Butler into the Flames top-4 as well as the move to finally re-unite Giordano and Bouwmeester on the top pairing has made the Flames a lot stronger in terms of moving the puck out of the zone and in transition. In contrast to guys like Sarich, Hannan and Robyn Regehr near the end where "up and out" was all too common a puck distribution tactic, Calgary is now able to effectively transition from defense to offense. A mobile defense corps also makes it tougher for the bad guys to consistently attack with speed.

The Czech Connection

It's hard not to be impressed with Jiri Hudler and Roman Cervenka in the early going. The pair has combined with Matt Stajan (!) to form an apparently deadly trio - or at least one that is creative and sneaky enough to be opportunitic and cause the opposition fits now and then. Hudler is also the only Flame forward sporting an above average on-ice SH% right now (23.53%!) so that is likely coloring our perception of him a tad.

Still, they have outshot their opponents and mostly faced other team's top-6 forwards. Which brings us to the final point.

Hartley's Rational Decision Making

The other thing the second line has going for them is zone starts. Hartley has rightly given Cervenka and Hudler the high ground so far - the pair boast the most favorable zone start ratio amongst Flames regular skaters at 57.1 and 57.7% respectively. Given what we know about Hudler and that this is Cervenka's first season on NA ice, it's the right strategy to employ.

Right behind them, however, are Alex Tanguay (56.3%) and Jarome Iginla (55.6%). As we discussed repeatedly around these parts last year, the Flames aging big guns need a bit of a nudge to stay above water in terms of shots and chances at ES and so far Hartley has obliged.

As mentioned, the top-6 is getting the high ground in favor of Stempniak and Backlund. Also seeing fewer offensive zone draws are Blair Jones (43.8%), Tim Jackman (40.0%) and Steve Begin (27.3%). The only guy who doesn't fit from a strategic perspective in the sub-50% category is Mike Cammalleri (48.9%), although there are only so many o-zone draws to go around.

Aside from face-off and match-up decisions, the Flames certainly seem less offensively bland and rigidly defensive than they did under Sutter. Defenders are much more active on the rush and the club seems freer to try things in the offensive zone without fear of a mistake resulting in an earful on the bench. This might be a compltely subjective, fanciful reading on things, however.

So Why are they Losing?

Two words: bad luck. Or, if you prefer, rotten goaltending and an inability to finish. The Flames have suffered through the very worst puck stopping in the league so far with Kipper's 87.5 ES SV%. That's lower than the average PK save percentage most years, so even if you think Kipper was in-line for step back after his big season last year (like I do), there is still almost no way that will continue indefinitely.

In addition, the Flames have only scored on 6.5% of their shots at 5on5 through six games, the sixth lowest rate in the NHL. Altogether, that sums to a PDO (SV% + SH%) of just 94, and as well all know, PDO aggressively regresses to the mean over time.

Warnings and Caveats

Even with a lot of arrows pointing the right way, let's keep in mind this is the first 10-games of the season and the results - even the "advanced ones" - should be taken with a pinch of salt. Calgary has mostly played at home and mostly against either lower tier teams (Edmonton, Colorado) or clubs on the second night of a B2B (Chicago, Colorado). Those factors have no doubt colluded to skew things in Calgary's favor somewhat, inflating their shot differentials to some degree. 

The other problem for Calgary is they have less time this year to wait for their luck to even out and reverse their fortunes. They have already played 12.5% of the regular season and their rotten luck has already put them 5-points back of the playoff picture and behind the 8-ball. Even with good shot totals the Flames won't have three or four months to turn the ship around a la the LA Kings if pucks continue to bounce off of posts or if Kipper continues allow beach balls behind him for much longer.

Finally, some of the organizations enduring issues still remain, although they've been papered over with strong performances from depth players and decent coaching so far. The Iginla, Tanguay pairing continues to play mostly against other club's top units and as a result they are rather "high event" (ie; giving up about as much as they generate). So even with a zone start of about 56% the pair are still barely breaking even possession-wise (+1.28/60 and +0.72/60) at 5on5.Ideally, a good team's best offensive forwards should spend more time in the offensive zone, either because someone else is taking on the tough minutes or because they are generally capable of outplaying the bad guys. That continues to be not quite the case in Calgary, even with the rest of the roster more or less beating up their counterparts.

Conclusion

The Flames 1-5 start is unnerving for a fanbase that has watched a team slide from contender to pretender over the course of 5 or 6 seasons. There is strong evidence that their current record is not a true indication of their performance or actual skill level, however, meaning there is a silver lining to an apparently ominous cloud. 

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Former Nations Overlord. Current FN contributor and curmudgeon For questions, complaints, criticisms, etc contact Kent @ kent.wilson@gmail. Follow him on Twitter here.
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#51 Kevin R
February 05 2013, 12:22PM
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shutout wrote:

Maybe the best thing in the world would be for Iginla to be traded. Here is a team that has been treading water at best the last few years, though slowly sinking would be more accurate. A team that is devoid of star players, I mean those really elite star players. Right now Iginla looks like a 36 year old player that belongs on the second line in a support role. Just within our division I would say that the following teams have more elite players than the Flames (Colorado - 2, Edmonton - 4, Minnesota - 4, Vancouver - 3) and in this league you do not win without star talent. The only way to get that talent is to draft it, and to acquire as many picks as possible, and moving Iginla at the deadline would make that a greater possibility.

As a number of fanboys have quite shrilly noted Iginla has a NMC and it is completely in his court as to whether or not he would want to leave the team. During the season I doubt that he would want to waive it because he would not want to be apart from his family. Or at least family is the reason that he uses when he has not gone to play for Canada at the World Championships the last dozen years or so. However, at the trade deadline he would be only away for a short period followed by the summer, and would be in playoff mode and would thus be spending less time with family as is.

When Calgary misses the playoffs for the fourth time this season, Iginla has to be thinking about the possibility of trying to win a cup before he retires. Somewhere in the back of his mind he has to be weighing the odds of Calgary achieving a miracle versus going to a contending team that has a much better chance. If Iginla has no interest in winning a cup and just wants to finish his career in Calgary then the whole discussion is a mute point. However, I think that the competitor in him would be thinking about it.

Here is where the trade makes all the sense in the world. It allows Iginla the chance this season to make a run through the playoffs if he goes to a contending team. But more importantly it gives him the chance to see what it would be like in another organization. The whole grass is greener analogy is accurate and for somebody like Iginla who has really only known how the Flames work, having a short window to experience different cultures and surroundings would be more beneficial than trying to decide in the summer.

That way if he does not enjoy the changes he can resign in the summer with Calgary. Or if he decides to move on he has a much more informed opinion of what to expect.

Last arguement is that at 37 and spending 18 years in one place a player has to become somewhat stagnant. Leaving or resigning with Calgary in the summer, maybe a shock or jolt to his comfort zone might do him wonders in terms of feeling revitalized. While it is Iginla's decision, I think that if the Flames organization actually grew a pair and had some honest dialog with Iginla the situation could end up win-win.

Nice post, respectful, compassionate to one of our best Flames players we have had the privilege to watch. I for one see Iggy as being a Selanne2. He is always in great shape & he may not be considered elite anymore, he certainly was & he could be a silent killer with a team that has the young elite players already. Calgary doesnt have any, or have any established young elite players yet. 2-3 years from now, that may be a totally different kind of conversation. So you are right, Iggy has a huge decision to make even just whether to resign with Calgary or not. A chance for a Cup with a true contender would be huge in assisting him with that decision. I think Pittsburg would be a no brainer destination. Can you imagine, Crosby & Iggy on 1 line & Malkin & Neal on the other. Now I dont blame Pitt not wanting to give the farm for a rental, but they are in tough out east. Iggy could put them over the hump. Morrow & a 1st with a condition if Iggy resigns we get a 2014 2nd & if he doesnt sign we give Pitt our 2014 2nd for their 4th to alleviate the price somewhat for the rental only risk. I think once Iggy gets a taste of playing with Sid, I could see him signing a 2-3 year deal with them. Thing is, by then, he could come back to Calgary & play year to year as long as he wants like Selanne & if I were Flames I would offer him Management or Coaching when he's tired of putting on the skates. By then, the Flames should have a pretty competitive young team by then. What a ride into the sunset happy ending would that be?

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#52 suba steve
February 05 2013, 12:50PM
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@Kevin R

The problem we run into though, are the "we aren't trading Iggy, so just shut up about trading Iggy" people. Your post, like other like minded posts, points out that moving him could be good for everyone. I don't think that there are any Flame fans that would not be thrilled to see Iggy win a Cup with Pittsburgh (though some would be crushed at the time of the trade or free agent signing). However, getting them to agree that a trade is necessary and getting team management to pull the trigger on that trade, that is the sticking point.

Ultimately, if Iggy hasn't signed a contract extension (with a home town discount) by the trade deadline and the team is not in playoff contention, then I think that Feaster needs to listen to offers.

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#53 kne
February 05 2013, 06:31PM
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Deep draft? THN does not seem to think so, What is plan f? - http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/49838-2013-NHL-draft-lacks-depth-of-talent.html

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#54 Baalzamon
February 05 2013, 10:06PM
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kne wrote:

Deep draft? THN does not seem to think so, What is plan f? - http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/49838-2013-NHL-draft-lacks-depth-of-talent.html

Well the they're dumb, because quite literally everyone else agrees that this is pretty much the best draft since 2003. If you want a draft that lacks depth, look at last year.

That isn't the only opinion they're completely alone on either. I believe THN also thinks that Vancouver has a better prospect system than Calgary.

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#55 the-wolf
February 06 2013, 11:30AM
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Willi P wrote:

1. Didn't mean just the NMC. Perhaps ownership and for sure many fans want him to stay so its just not the NMC. And the reason it keeps getting brought up is because of the apposing people keep saying trade him for this or that. It's not a video game or fantasy league, it's real life and there are other circumstances.

2. Kipper (and the Koivu brothers) own TPS Turku of the SM-liiga. During a radio show I was listening to durng the lockout, the source reported that Kipper would like to play for the team upon retirement. The source said that if he were to be traded, he would likely retire early to go home and play on his team. I have been searching for the interview but have not found it yet. And, the whiny little quitter remarks are yours not mine.

As per the Iginla comment #1 above, this is real life and people may have reasons for not wanting to move their family to a location not of their chosing. Further becuase of the last few lockouts, I don't think I would be as accomodating either, but before you say it, I was not on either the player or owners side.

3. Good for you, I would not be happy with that return.

4. I didn't say we would get that return. I said the only way you trade him is IF you get that return. I am ok with the contract as well, slight overpay when you make recent comparisons. At least they got rid of Dion's.

Plan A and Plan B, nuke the team, are broken records, not going to happen. At least Feaster, IMO, is trying new creative things and some fans are seeing it as a positive.

Apologies, I was unavailable yesterday.

1) Agreed, but that works both ways. If the team really does poorly, too good to refuse offers pour in, etc. It's not just if Iggy makes the first move.

2) I only mentioned whiny quitter, because if that was his stance, than that's how I would view it. Ditto for any player with that stance.

Still, I don't think he'd retire before playing out the season. I just can't see Kipper being moved and saying' "that's it, I'm done" and refusing to report. But I could be wrong.

4) I've defended JBo on here many times over, but he's not worth a true #1 center, let alone anything additional.

Something like, just by way of how I'd be thinking, Jarnkrok and a first from Detroit.

Again, something along those line, not set in stone, it would depend onwhat Calgary's scouts really think of that prospect, etc.

I agree with you that Calgary is definitely more entertaining, but that strecth pass isn't going to work forever.

It's the long term plan of building an actual Cup winner that I have problems with.

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#56 the-wolf
February 06 2013, 11:33AM
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Jonathan Happy wrote:

1) Because the Flames will NEVER ask Iginla for a trade. He is the Franchise's all time leader. So I have eliminated any ideas of the Flames approaching Iginla for a trade, cause it's not happening. The only way Iggy gets traded is if HE wants to. Is that a good way to do business? No probably not, but that's reality.

2)"He obviously wouldn't be coming back for 1.5 million next season anyways. Personally though, I don't think the man is a whiny little quitter as you suggest who will only play for one city or bust."

Then what makes you think that he wouldn't come back for the final year of his contract? Yea, I know, it's not much money for him, and he's getting fairly long in the tooth, but personally though, I think the man is a guy who genuinely loves playing in the NHL and would come back, even for that meagre payday, just to play another season of the game he loves in the city where he became a hero.

3)Agree. A 2nd for Cammi in a deep draft would be good.

4) I believe that a 1st rounder and a decent prospect would be pretty much fair value. What do you think Bouwmeester would net the Flames?

1) Maybe, maybe not. Things change all the time. Refer to my last post.

2) I'm saying that if that was his attitude - to quit mid-season and go back to Finland because he's traded - than he's be unlikely to play here next year for so cheap.

I don't think he'd do that.

3):)

4) Again, see my last post.

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#57 the-wolf
February 06 2013, 11:37AM
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Section205 wrote:

"Better to live in the past and count the $$$ from jersey sales than to even try and build an actual contending team."

"And ownership only cares about $$$, don't kid yourself."

Oh, please. Perhaps one could google to find out what kind of businesses these owners run on a day-to-day basis, no?

I have only myself to blame for standing in the way of your daily rant. Please resume.

Again, I don't get what you're saying.

Billionaire oil men. What is your point?

You can call it a rant all you want, but try and make some sense. You've failed to address anything I asked you to clarify.

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