3 Fearless Flames Predictions

Kent Wilson
March 13 2013 09:55AM

 

 

Calgary has played 24 games and only have another 24 remaining in their 2013 season. They probably won't make the playoffs, but that's hardly a brave prophecy at this point. Here's a few other things I expect to happen before the final puck drops for Calgary as well...

1.) The Flames won't finish last in the West

Although pragmatically the best thing for Calgary would be to finish as low in the standings as possible, the truth is the Flames aren't as bad as they have seemed through the first half of the year. All of their underlying numbers are at least middle of the road and it's only league worst goaltending that has sunk them.

So unless Feaster tells the troops to lay down their arms or trades everything not nailed down, the Flames will improve as a matter of course. In the summer I suggested Kipper would regress from his outstanding numbers last season, but I seriously doubt he is suddenly a sub-replacement level puck stopper. Even if he is merely average for the remainder, Calgary's record should improve.

This prediction seems a little tone deaf considering Calgary's recent struggles, but really this should be a familiar script for Flames fans. In each of the previous two seasons the club flailed around for the first 30 or so games, only to turn things around in the second half and make a serious run at the post-season. They probably don't have enough games left to do that this time (the hole is too deep) but expect them to go on a winning streak and pull themselves out of the basement out least.

Aside - when the Flames go on their inevitable run, you'll hear stories about how they are finally embracing Hartley's system, or playing relaxed hockey because they don't feel the pressure of the playoffs anymore, or some other such psychologizing. Don't believe them.

2.) The Flames will finish above the Oilers

You know who is (still) legitimately terrible? The Edmonton Oilers.

On twitter the other day I asked my followers if they would rather be a Flames fan or Oilers fan right now. I was obviously being a bit facetious (the response was overwhelmingly "neither"), but the question actually does interest me - The Oil have an impressive collection of kids, but that's about it. They've raced through most of the youngsters ELC's, their management doesn't seem to know how to build an NHL roster (make sure to click that link) and they still sport some of the worst possession numbers in the league.

It's arguable that Edmonton is in the better position given their younger assets. Even with those guys, though, they remain below the Flames despite the fact we've arguably reached the latter's post-2004 nadir. It can certainly get worse for the Calgary organization if the next 12-24 months aren't managed with a deft hand, but Edmonton has been rebuilding in earnest for almost 5 years and are still the NHL's easy-out.

3.) Iginla will be dealt

After two or three years of writing "trade Jarome" articles, this is the season I think we finally see it happen. Iginla's contract is up in the summer, the team and player haven't talked about an extension and it should be as obvious as the nose on Tim Hunter's face at this point that Jarome is no longer an elite piece to build around.

Eric Francis' recent article on the subject portends an Iggy deal I think, not because of the subject or content, but because it strikes me as a trial balloon purposely raised by the Flames management (via the media) to test the public's willingness to embrace a post-Iginla era. A random sampling of the comments there (and here and almost any other fan gathering online) suggests this is the case.

Iginla will likely be the most sought after rental player on the market at the deadline, raising the demand and therefore asking rpice. The Flames won't realistically be in the playoff chase for the first time since they made their cup run. The franchise is in desperate need of adding to its modest stable of future assets. And Jarome is running out of time to win the cup.

It makes entirely too much sense. Unless Jarome categorically refuses to waive his NTC ala Sundin (which I don't think will happen), he will be a Bruin, Penguin, Blue or King in April.

39d8109299a9795cb3b41a4e9b49d501
Former Nations Overlord. Current Fn contributor and curmudgeon For questions, complaints, criticisms, etc contact Kent @ kent.wilson@gmail. Follow him on Twitter here.
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#1 Chris Fairfield
March 13 2013, 10:09AM
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I can accept him going to the Penguins,Bruins or Blues, just not the Kings. I remember Ray Bourque even willing to take a pay cut to finish his career in Boston, but, again, given his age at the time, he accepted a trade to Colorado and retired after he had his SC ring. I feel that Iginla will waive his NTC and go to the Pens, get his elusive cup and will not just be a rental as I think he resigns with Pittsburgh for at least 2 more years. On a side note, Avangard Omsk is down 3-1 in their playoff series against Traktor.

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#2 If Only HIs Name Was Olli Postandin
March 13 2013, 10:22AM
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Wholeheartedy agree with 2 of 3. But don't count out chances of finishing last. They play 15 games in 26 days in april, and if they do trade a few vets for prospects by the deadline it will only compound matters.

Plus by finishing last i mean finishing last in the west.

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#3 jeremywilhelm
March 13 2013, 10:24AM
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I can't wait for the tried and true media story lines we get to see every year. It's amazing how unoriginal mainstream media people are.

Regurgitate, regurgitate, regurgitate.

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#4 jeremywilhelm
March 13 2013, 10:24AM
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I can't wait for the tried and true media story lines we get to see every year. It's amazing how unoriginal mainstream media people are.

Regurgitate, regurgitate, regurgitate.

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#5 MC Hockey
March 13 2013, 10:26AM
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Agree with you but perhaps Oilers come close to beating Flames by year end. I predict Kipper to Buf for younger Miller and Iggy to Bos for great 2-way centre Bergeron

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#6 icedawg_42
March 13 2013, 10:28AM
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I bet you could count the number of remaining "winnable games" on one hand - namely a couple vs the Oilers..CBJ..maybe Dallas...they always seem hungry to win vs the cOilers.

Plenty of chances left for embarrassment though as well. I too think they will leapfrog the Oilers...which as of today would put them at 12th in the West. That's probably where I'd see them finishing either way. Twelfth. In the West. Twelfth..........twelfth. fml

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#7 icedawg_42
March 13 2013, 10:28AM
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jeremywilhelm wrote:

I can't wait for the tried and true media story lines we get to see every year. It's amazing how unoriginal mainstream media people are.

Regurgitate, regurgitate, regurgitate.

Dude - you TOTALLY regurgitated that post. (sorry..couldn't resist)

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#8 NHL93
March 13 2013, 10:29AM
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I always was envious of Edmonton's stable of young talent but always felt that the team rushed all of them out of Junior and into the bigs. I just don't see teenagers being nhl players (unless they are generation-like talents ie Crosby/Ovechkin/etc).

There must be some sort of study out there that rates teenagers in the nhl and how many of them didn't mature into franchise players. Malholtra is one that always jumps to mind. He was a can't miss Rangers prospect that never turned into the Franchise centre. Was it due to him being rushed, or was he always going to be a checking/faceoff specialist? Joe Thornton was similar to Malholtra, but was coddled in Boston by Burns. These two may be a very unfair comparison however. Judging how a 19yr old is going to turn out is like prediction next year's weather.

Long story short: Edmonton might be ruining these kids by giving them the shot at the 'bigs' right-away.

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#10 Danger
March 13 2013, 10:30AM
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@Kent

Good calls, IMO (even though #1 is just a logical consequence of #2). Thanks especially for the link in #2, made me feel better! At least Feaster likes to mix in some decent additions in between boneheaded ones...

... and now that I've realized that's how low the bar is currently set, I no longer feel better. *sigh*

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#11 Chris Fairfield
March 13 2013, 10:30AM
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MC Hockey wrote:

Agree with you but perhaps Oilers come close to beating Flames by year end. I predict Kipper to Buf for younger Miller and Iggy to Bos for great 2-way centre Bergeron

No way that the Bruins part with Bergeron, but Miller to the Flames and Kiprusoff to tutor Enroth, might not be such a bad deal.

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#12 Kurt
March 13 2013, 10:46AM
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@Kent - would you trade the entire Oilers roster for our entire roster? Straight up, just switch teams. I would in 1 second flat, and I think 30 out of 30 GMs would. Not sure how that lines up with #2.

I hope you are right about Iggy. PLEASE trade him.

I hope #1 is wrong too, but you are probably right... sigh.

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#13 SmellOfVictory
March 13 2013, 10:51AM
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MC Hockey wrote:

Agree with you but perhaps Oilers come close to beating Flames by year end. I predict Kipper to Buf for younger Miller and Iggy to Bos for great 2-way centre Bergeron

There is no way in hell either of those trades would happen. Particularly not the Boston one, since it would make their team worse.

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#15 Jai Kiran
March 13 2013, 11:02AM
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2. THE FLAMES WILL FINISH ABOVE THE OILERS

No they don't.

Flames have got 13 of 24 remaining on the the road, and they ARE going to be selling. Oilers have got 14(!) of 22 remaining at home and they're 3 points up.

I totally agree with points 1 and 3 though.

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#16 seve927
March 13 2013, 11:07AM
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Jai Kiran wrote:

2. THE FLAMES WILL FINISH ABOVE THE OILERS

No they don't.

Flames have got 13 of 24 remaining on the the road, and they ARE going to be selling. Oilers have got 14(!) of 22 remaining at home and they're 3 points up.

I totally agree with points 1 and 3 though.

Only if the Flames goaltending continues as it has. Not very likely. I'd say it's wishful thinking that we'll get our pick before they do. Unless we win the lottery.

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#17 shutout
March 13 2013, 11:10AM
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Kent Wilson wrote:

I would for sure - but only of they didn't come with the Oilers management. Edmonton's major issue isn't really their roster or their assets - it's their decision makers.

I think that the exact same thing can be said of the Calgary Flames. The problem has more to do with Edwards, King, and Feaster than it has to do with the players on the ice. With better management the current assets could be moved for younger assets and accelerate any rebuilding process by 2-3 years.

The Flames will end up drafting 10th or 11th because they always seem to have a good burst just before the trade deadline.

Would like to think that Iginla would be moved, but I think that it is only 20% that he goes. In my opinion his family situation is more important that his hockey situation.

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#18 Kurt
March 13 2013, 11:11AM
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Kent Wilson wrote:

I would for sure - but only of they didn't come with the Oilers management. Edmonton's major issue isn't really their roster or their assets - it's their decision makers.

Ya I agree. I hear their owner has a man crush on Kevin Lowe, so it'll never change for them. But I'd like their team. They re-hired MacTavish, and now just hired Scott Howson. Haha..... They seem to like hiring and promoting failures. Maybe they can have Feaster after we fire him.

You'd have to think if they screw it up, it'll go down in the history as one of the most epic rebuild fails of all time. Here's hoping.

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#19 icedawg_42
March 13 2013, 11:13AM
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@seve927

Wouldn't it rock if Edmonton finished dead last and Calgary got the first overall!!??

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#20 Ryan Pike
March 13 2013, 11:14AM
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I don't think Iginla will be dealt. I think that both sides in the Iginla/Feaster negotiations are smart enough to know how to use the media as an asset in their dealings.

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#21 rick
March 13 2013, 11:16AM
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your an idiot

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#22 etownman
March 13 2013, 11:26AM
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Don't think so Kent, the flameouts are the easiest pickings in the league these days! Burnt out & old & going down faster than a two bit hooker! Just sayin!

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#23 icedawg_42
March 13 2013, 11:36AM
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rick wrote:

your an idiot

BAZINGA! Good one...

Oh - btw it's "you're"

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#24 icedawg_42
March 13 2013, 11:40AM
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etownman wrote:

Don't think so Kent, the flameouts are the easiest pickings in the league these days! Burnt out & old & going down faster than a two bit hooker! Just sayin!

*Sigh*

The worst part about finishing below the cOilers will be listening to their trolls. I suppose this is where we "Flamer" fans begin to regret not getting our digs in more the last five years.

Not that any of this statement isn't pretty much correct...

*Sigh*

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#25 Kevin R
March 13 2013, 11:44AM
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Would I be giving away my age if I told you I would have prefered the Johnny Carson swammy picture way way better. Probably your predictions would have been way more fun to read if you read the answer 1st & unveiled the question after.

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#26 Jeff In Lethbridge
March 13 2013, 11:46AM
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the one thing comforting in all this is the major suck of the Oilers, which is made even better by how touchy the Oiler trolls are... about the only thing i can smile about these days (the overly sensitive oiler trolls)

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#27 Kevin R
March 13 2013, 11:49AM
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icedawg_42 wrote:

*Sigh*

The worst part about finishing below the cOilers will be listening to their trolls. I suppose this is where we "Flamer" fans begin to regret not getting our digs in more the last five years.

Not that any of this statement isn't pretty much correct...

*Sigh*

I think by the time they really started to suck on their way to 3 1st`s in a row, we saw the road ahead & got to endure the Dion fiasco. I think we knew awhile ago that the window was closing so fast we better not try throwing too many stones, they would hit the window & fly back in our faces. For many anyway, I am hoping my scum ball Oiler fan buddies will be merciful.

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#28 icedawg_42
March 13 2013, 11:50AM
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@Kevin R

This is true!

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#29 the-wolf
March 13 2013, 11:58AM
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1) Depends on how many and what assets they sell. If Iginla and JBo go, we stay at the bottom.

2) Same as above. And I'd gladly take the Oilers roster over Calgary's. In terms of pure assets, they're far beyond Calgary. A #1 D and a true #1 goalie alone would put them in the playoffs and what's sick is that they have the assets in terms of high picks and prospects to do it without even touching their roster.

Both our management groups are a joke though.

3) Agreed. I think it finally happens. And forget 2-3 years, try 5 years of campaigning for moving Iginla.

Iginla will get more than some people think, especially more than a 2nd round pick like GJ suggested in the Herald.

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#30 Oilfaninvic
March 13 2013, 12:29PM
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MC Hockey wrote:

Agree with you but perhaps Oilers come close to beating Flames by year end. I predict Kipper to Buf for younger Miller and Iggy to Bos for great 2-way centre Bergeron

Are you on crack?? Boston gives up Bergeron for Iggy the rental. Dream big.

As to Wilson's 3 predictions. Well 1 out of 3 ain't bad. Iggy will be gone. 1st rounder (somewhere in the 20s + prospect). As to the Flames always in the hunt. When was that ? Finishing 9th or 10th ain't hunting its golfing.

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#31 Mitch2
March 13 2013, 12:35PM
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Iginla + Sarich for Pitts 1st, Matta, Kennedy and a conditional 1st. Let the scenarios begin.

Iginla will absolutely go by this deadline, he should have gone last off-season.

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#32 Chris MacDonald
March 13 2013, 12:45PM
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I stopped reading this article at:

"it's only league worst goaltending that has sunk them"

Take off the flame colored glasses, wake up, and smell the coffee. This team is horrible top to bottom.

Kent: Are you paid by the Flames? Sure seems like it.

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#33 Jay
March 13 2013, 12:48PM
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The best thing the flames can do is accept a minor rebuild. You shoulda done it 2 years ago or at least last year. But the best thing going for you guys is that you won't have to endure as long of a painful and embarrassing process. It's been hard being an oiler fan for the last 6 years. And still is! I truly believe with the right moves you guys can be back on track as early as next year and this season will only be a minor blip. Us oilers are hoping the light starts shining soon before our deep depression becomes permanent

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#34 Petemaherrocks
March 13 2013, 12:50PM
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Jay Feaster should pump white smoke out of saddledome when he's ready to trade Iginla

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#35 negrilcowboy
March 13 2013, 12:55PM
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Mitch2 wrote:

Iginla + Sarich for Pitts 1st, Matta, Kennedy and a conditional 1st. Let the scenarios begin.

Iginla will absolutely go by this deadline, he should have gone last off-season.

throw in dustin jefferies and joe vitale along with kennedy and matta or morrow or pouliot or harrington and i would include sarich badchuk the fourth line and comeau too.

the pens are deep in d prospects, any combo of those kids and jefferies,kennedy and vitale.

seriously iggy to the pens for vitale,jefferies and kennedy with one of the young d prospects.

the way kunitz is on fire i doubt pitt would offer alot coming back for iggy.

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#36 SmellOfVictory
March 13 2013, 01:11PM
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Chris MacDonald wrote:

I stopped reading this article at:

"it's only league worst goaltending that has sunk them"

Take off the flame colored glasses, wake up, and smell the coffee. This team is horrible top to bottom.

Kent: Are you paid by the Flames? Sure seems like it.

Oh look, an emotionally-driven reaction to an objective analysis. How cute.

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#37 jakeryley
March 13 2013, 01:28PM
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The cycle shall continue.

Flames will go on their run, the spin during the off-season will be that the players finally bought into Hartley's system and that the answers are in the dressing room.

Flames will finish 12th in the Western Conference in 2013/2014 with a roster that is very similar to what it is today.

Baertschi will fail to make the team next season.

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#38 TheBear64
March 13 2013, 01:33PM
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The Bruins might be willing to give up Rich Peverly and a prospect and or pick for Iggy.

He has to go. But please; NOT the Pens. Anyone but the Pens!

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#39 Jonathan Happy
March 13 2013, 01:34PM
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Chris MacDonald wrote:

I stopped reading this article at:

"it's only league worst goaltending that has sunk them"

Take off the flame colored glasses, wake up, and smell the coffee. This team is horrible top to bottom.

Kent: Are you paid by the Flames? Sure seems like it.

The Flames best goaltender this year has been Danny Taylor. He's currently playing in the minors. The Flames' #1 goalie has a save percentage of .867, which is the lowest of all 4 Flames goalies who have played this year. If Kipper could even play at .900 sv rate, the Flames would certainly have some more wins.

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#40 Jonathan Happy
March 13 2013, 01:36PM
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jakeryley wrote:

The cycle shall continue.

Flames will go on their run, the spin during the off-season will be that the players finally bought into Hartley's system and that the answers are in the dressing room.

Flames will finish 12th in the Western Conference in 2013/2014 with a roster that is very similar to what it is today.

Baertschi will fail to make the team next season.

What makes you think Baerstchi won't make the team next year? Give the kid some time in the minors, he'll be fine.

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#41 Chris MacDonald
March 13 2013, 01:55PM
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SmellOfVictory wrote:

Oh look, an emotionally-driven reaction to an objective analysis. How cute.

lol I suck

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#42 RexLibris
March 13 2013, 01:59PM
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Kent Wilson wrote:

I would for sure - but only of they didn't come with the Oilers management. Edmonton's major issue isn't really their roster or their assets - it's their decision makers.

AHA! I've spotted the flaw in Kent's logic! He says he wouldn't take the Oilers management and then says that the decision makers are the problem.

The Oilers management don't make decisions! They simply assess, describe, consult, reassess ad infinitum!

So there. ;-)

(Please apply copious amounts of sarcasm to the above statement)

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#43 Danny Lawson
March 13 2013, 01:59PM
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Kent, gotta say I'm somewhat surprised when you righteously cast stones at the Oilers management. While I agree they're hardly enviable or something I'd hope we'd emulate, the Flames ownership and management group as a whole is equally as dysfunctional and inept; see ROR gong show & dismal assest management. The Flames decision makers are openly the butt of jokes and sarcasm locally and nationally by the NHL media experts. Teams in glass houses .....

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#44 RexLibris
March 13 2013, 02:05PM
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I suppose what I would say with regards to what the Oilers need to do to improve relative to the Flames is this: how much do the Flames need to change to get into the playoffs? By contrast how much do the Oilers?

As I see it, the Oilers need a high-colonic in some of the areas of Hockey Operations (outside of amateur scouting and the training staff).

In terms of systemic challenges though, the Flames have more issues than can be reasonably solved by a few moves here and a top three draft pick there. There are organizational, cultural, and ownership factors that are all collecting around this team right now.

I know fans don't want to spend a long time fixing these issues, because it will likely mean a prolonged period of failure, but taking the short cut would be a mistake and the convenient repair is usually the wrong one.

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#45 VK63
March 13 2013, 02:09PM
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@Chris MacDonald

LMFAO!

As a big fan of Wanye I simply had to howl....... good grief.

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#46 Jano
March 13 2013, 02:25PM
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The goaltending alone is not all that is failing for the Flames by a long shot. There are too many multi goal defeats happening for all the blame to be put on the guys in net. They may have good possession numbers, but it's what they do with their possession that is a major problem. I've watched most every game this year, and it's been rare that Calgary has had the better scoring chances. I really don't think that the Flames deserve a lot better than what they've acheived so far this year. And the schedule is not going to be getting any easier.

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#47 Brick
March 13 2013, 02:57PM
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I think that Iggy stays a Flame until the end of his career. My guess is that they retool, hopefully getting bigger and adding a good centre along the way. Steps will be taken to improve the hockey club.

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#48 Victoria Flames Fan
March 13 2013, 03:42PM
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I hope we nab top pick. Watching Wotherspoon and Jones man Portland's point last night I went home dreaming of a bright future in Calgary. The two are connected telepathically.

My preference would be to see Iggy take a back seat like Ryan Smyth but I think he'll get traded to Pittsburgh. Pensburgh.com is suggesting: "The Pens, very likely would have to give up one or two of their blue-chip defensive prospects (Olli Maata, Derrick Pouliot, Scott Harrington, Joe Morrow, Brian Dumuolin), this year's first round pick and maybe a young professional player with a future like Simon Despres or Beau Bennett." I think that is a little overstated. If we got Pouliot (Portland's other #1 defenceman) and a first rounder I'd be stoked.

As for where the Flames will finish, I agree with Kent, we'll be fighting for the playoff spot again (even fighting for #1 in the NW, since it's become the worst division in hockey).

I'd rather we finish last this year (or ahead of Edmonton and grab the top pick).

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#49 RSD
March 13 2013, 04:32PM
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@Kent Wilson

Kent, I would agree with you that the oilers management are mismanaging the team to a degree and that obviously there needs to be changes made at that level. I find it confusing that you are cofiden the Flames managment considering Feaster almost gave Colorado 2 very important draft picks and O'Riely essentially away to the last place team in the NHL for absolutely nothing in return. Considering this years draft is especially deep; that gaff would have set the team back at the very least 3-5 years maybe more. Yet you are essentially saying flames fans have nothing to worry about because Feaster is a very compitant GM even though he and all of his management team have very little knowledge of how the current CBA works. Sure Edmonton have issues but if you are saying Calgary doesn't you like all flames fans are going to find out the hard way. If Calgary knows what is really good for them blow it up at at the deadline and start rebuilding at a draft that is deep. The sufferage will be nothing compared to what edmonton welt through. Good Grief.

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#50 Mac962
March 13 2013, 04:47PM
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Yes- i am an Oilers fan BUT ! What has happened to these teams, i yearn for the day both clubs dominate again. A mix of Flames Vets and you have some good ones and we dont, combined with the Oilers Youth , would be great. It kills me to look at the standings and see the OIL and Flames near or at the bottom. Rebuild your damn team Calgary, and give us Glencross back please. We will take Iggy as well.

May the hockey gods be with our Alberta Teams. And i can Get a Hate on for he Flames again. Right now i can't as i know the feeling.

Chin up Flamers- it sucks but we will both be Back.

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