May 07 2013 09:12AM
Calgary's presumptive next Captain had a rough year by the eye test - do the numbers match the evaluation?
First, here are Giordano's basic possession stats and their concurrent ranks amongst regular skaters on the Flames:
Corsi: -5.96/60 (14/19)
Relative Corsi: -1.6 (14/19)
Zone Start: 41.0% (2nd toughest)
Primer (skip if you are familiar with Corsi analysis)
Corsi is the differential between shots at the net for and against while a player is on the ice (at even strength). It is a proxy measure for offensive zone puck possession and indicative of a players overall performance/effect on the ice. Selke winners and dominating players tend to rate highly in Corsi, including Datsyuk, Crosby, Kesler, Karlsson, Lidstrom, Bergeron, Toews, etc. Corsi also consistently correlates with scoring chance differential, which we've discovered from counting chances for years.
The zone start stat is a ratio of offensive zone to defensive zone face-offs at even strength for the player in question. A low ratio indicates more starts in the defensive zone and therefore a more difficult assignment.
The poor showing on the Corsi side of things is heavily influenced by the low ZS%. That said, playing with sinkholes such as Tanguay and Iginla will also effect that... or will it?
With or Without you is exactly what it sounds like - a look at how each players results change with or without another given player on the ice. In this case, we'll investigate Brodie's effects on his main line mates this season. Numbers are Corsi% (stats via Hockeyanalysis.com).
|Player||With G||Without G||% diff|
|Player||G With||G Without||% diff|
So, what to take from this? In my interpretation, knowing what I know about how players were deployed against top competition, it seems to me that Giordano made players marginally better against 2nd and 3rd tier comp but brought everyone down by a significant margin when playing top tier comp. The telling player here is Iginla: we all know he's not exactly the best tough-minutes option, but in playing top-3 competition with Giordano, Gio made his Corsi rating 3.5% worse than it was without Gio. Another worrying sign? Gio creates 1 more minute of PK time for every 60 minutes of even strength time than he does PP time, which doesn't sound huge - but it's the worst on the team (aside from Derek Smith, but that's not a high bar) by a considerable margin.
The chart is composed of Giordano's top-8 line mates.
Of course, the analysis probably isn't that simple overall; the trade deadline had a lot to do with it, as did his poor start. But I can't shake the feeling that Giordano was a two-season wonder, and now that he'll be used as the #1 defenseman... Well, let's just say that I wouldn't be surprised if even more vitriol is directed towards him next year.
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