Flames 2013 Draft Scoring Analysis

Justin Azevedo
July 02 2013 11:43AM

Émile Poirier

- pic via flovalser

 

Now that the draft is over, let's determine how the Flames did. There will be more through analysis on each player as we progress through the week and beyond - but for now, we can take a look at some scoring categories.

First, though, a small primer:

  • PPP%  - Power Play Points percentage. More even strength points is good for two reasons: PP time is highly variable (which means PP scoring is highly variable) and it's a lot harder to score at even strength than it is on the PP, so these points have less overall value when projecting a player. Generally, I like to see a PPP% at 40% or lower in any player.
  • TS% - Team Scoring percentage. The amount of offense the player contributes to in the games that he's played in. 35% is a good starting point for high-end prospects.
  • PA% - Primary Assist percentage. The amount of assists that are designated primary assists. A higher number here means the player is more involved in plays he's setting up. Anecdotally, the last guy that touches the puck before the scorer generally has more to do with the goal than the 2nd last guy who touched the puck before the scorer. If this number is below 55% it gets worrying for me.
  • NHLE - NHL Equivalency. See here for an explanation. For high-end prospects, an NHLE of about 40 is preferred.

Everyone is ranked by their NHLE. 

Forwards

  GP PPP% TS% PA% PPG NHLE
Sean Monahan (OHL) 58 48.7% 40.6% 68.1% 1.34 33.1
Emilé Poirier (QMJHL) 65 20% 32.4% 55.3% 1.08 26.5
Morgan Klimchuk (WHL) 72 50% 39.4% 62.3% 1.05 26.0
Tim Harrison (NEPSIHA) 17 N/A 36.1%* N/A 1.76 10.1*

Monahan's splits, without context, could be somewhat worrying. With context, though, not so much. Being in on 40% of his team's scoring is huge when he played as good of competition as he did. He also has a very high primary assist percentage, which means he's the one creating the plays and doing the work. His high amount of PP points is likely attributable to the fact that the 67's, being bad, didn't score much (comparatively) at even strength. Thus, when taken in context with his TS% of 40, it's not that bad. He was also a good ES point producer the year prior, so nothing to be worried about in my opinion. His NHLE is a bit low, but, once again, the team he played on was garbage and he played tough minutes.

Looking at Poirier's numbers has me feeling a little better about this pick than I was beforehand. Really good EV/PP point split; when a guy scores 56 points at evens you know he's doing something right. However, he had a tonne of secondary assists - not a huge deal, but you can understand why that, combined with his NHLE, made him a late first-rounder. I'd rather have Shinkaruk (64/41.9%/37.2%/61.2%/1.34/33.1), but Poirier isn't a bad pick. He's just not as good as Shinkaruk on the face of the available evidence.

Klimchuk is basically the exact opposite: good percentage of team scoring and primary assists, but really poor EV/PP point splits. A lot of that is attributable (like it is with Monahan) to his team not being able to outplay the opposition at even strength, and, as a result, the PP numbers are inflated. I'd be willing to bet Porier and Klimchuk also played pretty tough competition.

For Harrison, I had to guesstimate a little - his team scored 136 goals this season in 28 games (~4.86 per game) but Harrison only played 17. Thus, I took away the team's GPG (times 11) from the 136, leaving us with 83 - which I then used to divide the 30 points Harrison had. For his NHLE, I used this article outlining the NHLE for Minnesota's HS league, which I feel is pretty close to the NEPSIHA (Harrison's league). Still, the results aren't exactly encouraging - he's a 6th rounder. I couldn't find information that would've allowed me to calculate the two missing categories.

Defensemen

  GP PPP% TS% PA% PPG NHLE
Eric Roy (WHL) 72 38.5% 20.6% 68.1% 0.54 13.3
Paul Gilmour (NCAA) 38 38.5% 12.4% 66.6% 0.34 11.5
Rushan Rafikov (MHL) 53 40% 6.3% 45.4% 0.19 3.3
Keegan Kanzig (WHL) 70 0% 3.2% 0% 0.1 2.5

I love the Eric Roy pick. I like the way the kid moves, he has gobs of offensive skill and it's a lot easier to teach defense than it is to teach offense. Those splits are pretty nice, too. The only thing missing is a larger point total - but to that point, TJ Brodie's NHLE in his draft year was 11 and he had many of the same concerns and skills Roy has as well. This was a great pick.

However, Kanzig was basically the exact opposite end of the spectrum. Nothing about the kid personally - but he's a pylon and the offensive splits and stats confirm that. I just can't understand why this pick was used on him here. At this point, it seems like the only thing going for him is his size, but that's nada without skill. Aside: every point he had this season was a secondary assist at even strength.

Rafikov is in the same boat, but the pick is more excusable because it was in the 7th round. I don't see anything there that would suggest he's an NHLer in the future. I used this article to find an NHLE for the MHL.

Lastly, Gilmour has better stats than the previous two defensemen - but he's also 20: this will be his sophomore season at Providence. I'd have to dig a little deeper to find some comparables but I'm not optimistic about his chances.

Conclusion

In the future, I see four of these guys developing to the point where they could be considered NHL players. Pretty obvious as to who. With the exception of the pick in round 3 with names I much preferred on the board, this was a pretty good draft. They got good players with 4 of their first 5 picks and I don't think there were any players I'd specifically hoped the Flames would target after 136, so the last 3 picks are irrelevant in my eyes. 

In fact, aside from not getting one of Cammaratta, Duclair, Yakimov, Slepyshev, Andrighetto, Bjorkstrand, Lipon, Houck, Muir or Subban with the 3rd rounder, the 1st rounders are the only picks I would have tinkered with. But the fact that decision making of that nature still exists in the front office is troubling for me.

So, yes, a good draft in concept - but the behaviours displayed by the Flames, once again, are somewhat worrisome. If you have any questions, put them in the comments and I'd be happy to answer them.

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Justin is a 22-year-old Flames fan who also happens to be pursuing a double major at the University of Calgary. He has played hockey at high levels, enjoys wearing shorts and tends to drink far too much Grasshopper. Please don't hate him.
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#1 Clay
July 02 2013, 11:53AM
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Am I alone liking the Gilmour pick? For a 7th rounder I like the gamble. He was arguably one of the best, if not the best skater on a bad Providence team carried by its goaltender...

Given that he's 20, upside is limited, but I prefer it to some of the alternatives.

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#2 Kent Wilson
July 02 2013, 11:54AM
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@Clay

Meh, it's not terrible.

Decent splits for Poirier. Be interesting to see what he does next year.

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#3 Sincity1976
July 02 2013, 11:57AM
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I have the same assessment. I personally wouldn't have picked either Poirier or Klimchuk. But I am also not a professional (or even amateur) scout. I think both guys are solid prospects and I don't have a problem with either picks.

I am still flabbergasted by the 3-round pick. Kanzig was at home with his mom and pleasantly surprised he was drafted at all. Let alone in the 3-round. The Flames could have traded down or used a later pick and been all but guaranteed to get him.

I think there are some future NHLers available in the 3-round that we missed out on.

But other then the 3-round I don't have a problem with the draft.

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#4 McRib
July 02 2013, 12:09PM
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Agree that the Eric Roy pick was great value, as a second rounder he was a decent pick as a fifth rounder he was a great pick. The fact that Keegan Kanzig went two rounder higher than Eric Roy is hilarious!! But teams always overpay for the "toughest player in the draft", which was Kanzig this season. He actually is a great character kid, if he can learn to skate he could be a Hall Gill. Considering Samuel Morin went 11th overall it makes you understand how much teams desire huge defenseman.

Eric Roy had the talent to have been a second rounder last year if not for a late birthday. However, Brandon was terrible this season, so considering defensive positioning can be taught, he posses all the other intangibles to think he can be a player, can't believe he fell to low... 135th...

Wow, the WHL had a terrible draft obviously everyone was in the QMJHL all season. Greg Chase, Kyle Burroughs, Tyler Lewington in THE SEVENTH ROUND!!! Not to mention Jesse Lees, Roberts Lipsbergs, Jaden Descheneau, Jamien Yakubowski, Austin Lotz went undrafted among others... Wish the Flames would have gotten some of these players and replaced Kanzig with Jackson Houck.

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#5 McRib
July 02 2013, 12:25PM
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Did anyone else notice Providence had three more players drafted... (Including John Gilmour by us) They are assembling a very solid program everyone seems to be headed there because of the coach Nate Leaman. That said wish the Flames would have taken Brian Pinho over John Gilmour, as he has a higher ceiling. At least the Big Jankowski and Gillies have players to play with now.

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#6 Michael
July 02 2013, 12:28PM
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I;m not sure whether Feaster has a little river boat gambler in him, or if he really does think he is smarter than everyone else. His tendacy to go way off the draft board is fine with a seventh pick, but the Flames are not in a position to gamble with third rounders and picks like 'Poirier's'. Nothing wrong with the Poirier himself, but you don't gamble a 22nd overall pick on someone rated in the mid 2 to mid 3rd rounds.

The Flames front office is developing a poor reputation; a bunch of yes men micromanaged from the top, that doesnt seem to do its homework (ROR), and the Flames are simply no longer a destination of choice. Why would a quality free agent want to sign with this team? They couldn't even man the draft table properly, I don't know what happened durring one of the later rounds but it sounded like they were all asleep at the table.

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#7 Kent Wilson
July 02 2013, 12:33PM
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@Michael

I don't think this regime is much different that the last in terms of going off-board. Matt Pelech, for example, was roundly considered a third round talent in his draft and the Flames decided to snag him with a first rounder instead. Kris Chucko was ranked as the 61st best skater in the NA in his draft season (making him a 3rd or 4th rounder typically as well).

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#8 dotfras
July 02 2013, 12:38PM
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Thanks for doing this write up Justin!

Was happy with our 3 1sts & the Roy pick, looks like this data supports that.

It's certainly nice to see our 'cupboard' filled with some decent prospects.

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#9 Dave
July 02 2013, 12:39PM
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Does anyone know the reason poirier was rated so low? Is it just cause he started improving late in the year? Is that it?

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#10 Baalzamon
July 02 2013, 12:45PM
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Dave wrote:

Does anyone know the reason poirier was rated so low? Is it just cause he started improving late in the year? Is that it?

A combination of that, his late birthdate (ie. being older than average for the draft), and a bizarre skating stride, most likely.

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#11 Dave
July 02 2013, 12:54PM
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@Baalzamon

Ok, his skating would be a legit concern except he's so fast already. I don't care when a prospect starts taking their game to the next level. Only that they do. So if Shinkaruk did it last year and Poirier did it the last half of this year that's fine by me. As long as he's there which it seems he is.

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#12 Kent Wilson
July 02 2013, 12:56PM
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@Dave

He didn't start in the Q until his 17-18 year old season, which is rare for first rounders. Most guys at least have a cup of coffee at 16-17.

He also had a very ordinary rookie season, despite being older (40pts in 67 games). Meaning, he hasn't been on scouts radars as a viable high-end talent very long.

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#13 McRib
July 02 2013, 12:56PM
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@Michael

Everything I read prior to the draft said Emile Poirier was going 20-30th (as I don't read NHL CS, ISS or Corey Pronman)... and brought up his name numerous times on FN about being a potential first round target. Not sure where everyone gets this reaching business with him?!?!? HAVE YOU SEEN THE KIDS WHEELS?!?!?!?!

Hunter Shinkaruk is a spoiled rich kid from Elbow Park son of a top Calgary dentist.... He has never faced a moment of adversity in his life. He interviewed like crap and scared teams off I actually applaud the Flames for not caving and sticking with their guy.

I absolutly love the three first rounders... all of them put up very solid numbers on mediocre teams and are still on the upswing where guys like Shinkaruk are regressing and would bet that Poirier/Monahan/Klimchuk all finish Top. 5 in their leagues (Q/O/W) scoring races next year. It’s funny, I remember when everyone said Sven Baertschi was a reach at 13... Hahah. And no one knew who Johnny Gaudreau was... That year only two other teams even had him on their radar for the 7th round.

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#14 McRib
July 02 2013, 12:59PM
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Some of the later picks seem questionable especially Tim Harrison, but maybe we strike lightning twice. I talked to a couple New England people and they said they never saw him this year... Maybe teams just didn't get out to see him. You never know he is going to get a ton of ice on a very young Colgate Program and put up nearly two points per game in Prep School with great size.

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#15 Parallex
July 02 2013, 12:59PM
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Kent Wilson wrote:

I don't think this regime is much different that the last in terms of going off-board. Matt Pelech, for example, was roundly considered a third round talent in his draft and the Flames decided to snag him with a first rounder instead. Kris Chucko was ranked as the 61st best skater in the NA in his draft season (making him a 3rd or 4th rounder typically as well).

Chucko was ranked 29th by CSS. Or so this says anyways... http://www.uscho.com/2004/05/13/montoya-tops-css-goalie-rankings/

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#16 McRib
July 02 2013, 01:03PM
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@Parallex

Its interesting I was going over old Red Line Reports this week and noticed that both Kris Chucko and Matt Pelech were not in either years Top. 200 for the draft guide. They actually said Travis Zajac was making Kris Chucko. They had Emile Poirier 21st this year!

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#17 Kent Wilson
July 02 2013, 01:11PM
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@Parallex

Ahh, I must have seen an earlier ranking then.

If he settled at 29...that still means he was a 2nd or 3rd round consensus guy.

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#18 aloudoun
July 02 2013, 01:35PM
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San Jose Sharks have traded TJ Galiardi to Calgary for a draft pick per LeBrun

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#19 Mangotanker
July 02 2013, 01:40PM
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Flames have acquired TJ Galiardi from SJ for a draft pick

EDIT: chillgoose beat me to it :)

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#20 McRib
July 02 2013, 01:40PM
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@aloudoun

Solid pickup as long as the draft pick is fourth round or lower, always liked TJ Galiardi and thought he had more to offer an NHL team with an increased role.

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#21 McRib
July 02 2013, 01:47PM
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Its for a fourth round pick, solid pickup. Feaster keeps improving in my eyes. Corbin Knight, Three First Rounder etc. TJ Galiardi and David Jones were always two guys that never got a fair shake in Colorado. TJ Galiardi has become the Justin Abdelkader of Calgary playing for hometown teams at all levels.

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#22 kittensandcookies
July 02 2013, 01:53PM
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Whoa, a pre-apex player. I'm impressed.

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#23 Jeff Lebowski
July 02 2013, 01:53PM
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What kind of pick for Galiardi is what I want to know.

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#24 Baalzamon
July 02 2013, 01:53PM
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Solid pickup. I've always liked Galiardi (weird that he considers himself American, though..).

Still, we've got a similar problem to last year. Too many wingers, not enough defensemen. Trade for Blum next.

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#25 McRib
July 02 2013, 01:54PM
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@Baalzamon

Ya the rumor is that Nashville will not extent Jonathan Blum a qualifying offer... that would be a solid pickup for sure.

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#26 Parallex
July 02 2013, 01:55PM
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@Kent Wilson

More like early 2nd round consensus. 2004 was a European rich draft but not that rich. Chucko wasn't as much a reach off consensus as the consensus just being wrong about him.

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#27 jeremywilhelm
July 02 2013, 02:02PM
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I'm upset we didn't get Andrighetto

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#28 jeremywilhelm
July 02 2013, 02:14PM
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Picking up John Blum would be a darn good idea.

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#29 McRib
July 02 2013, 02:18PM
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Parallex wrote:

More like early 2nd round consensus. 2004 was a European rich draft but not that rich. Chucko wasn't as much a reach off consensus as the consensus just being wrong about him.

I sure as hell don't follow whatever consensus you guys do, Haha. Kris Chucko was no where close to being even a third rounder for most his draft year, as he was completly unranked by both McKeen's and The Sporting News his draft year!!

Not to mention Red Line had him 213 and they had Travis Zajac 20th. So Mckeen's, The Sporting News and Redline thought of Kris Chucko as not worth drafting at all. Mckeen's/RLR both had Emile Poirier (21/26) in the Top. 30 and we are trying to make a comparison?? Hahaha. NHL CSS rankings are not worth reading into most years guys. People were laughing when we drafted Kris Chucko in the first that year, everyone thought we were taking Bolland and most scouts didn't even have Chucko in their Top. 200, please stop making a comparison. Chucko was never a player to anyone other than Sutter and NHL CSS. Poirier was a guy anyone in the 20-30 range were thinking about and could turn into a steal.

http://www.coppernblue.com/2008/04/edmonton-oilers-1st-round-picks-2004.html

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#30 McRib
July 02 2013, 02:45PM
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@Parallex

Also don't evem start with Matt Pelech who was rated the 41st North American skater by the Central Scouting Service. But people like Red Line Report didn't even have him ranked out of 250 picks!!

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#31 If Only HIs Name Was Olli Postandin
July 02 2013, 03:55PM
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McRib wrote:

Also don't evem start with Matt Pelech who was rated the 41st North American skater by the Central Scouting Service. But people like Red Line Report didn't even have him ranked out of 250 picks!!

I've already barked up that tree, bud. People think ISS and NHL CSS are the standard-bearers for independent scouting orgs. Redline and McKeens are my personal favorites as well. Find their reports to be very informative and detailed as to the strengths and weaknesses of players, and the probability that they can improve and develop.

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#32 john peart
July 02 2013, 09:03PM
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Kent Wilson wrote:

Meh, it's not terrible.

Decent splits for Poirier. Be interesting to see what he does next year.

As always the site is doing an awesome job of keeping us right up to date with great content. I am feeling much better about the Proirier pick .... can u guys answer me a question ..... they made that pick in my estimation because .... they thought Montreal was going to take him at 25 ..... they didn't have a great interview with the Calgary boy ..... and he is a very legit prospect given he was one of about 8 forwards eligible for this draft that was invited to the Canadian Junior tryout camp .... does that sum it up ?

Let me know your thoughts .... it was for sure a surprise, but maybe a good one ....

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#33 McRib
July 02 2013, 09:51PM
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@If Only HIs Name Was Olli Postandin

My apologies for stepping on your toes, Haha. Just wish more people quoted the Red Lines/McKeens of the world rather than the ISS/NHL CSS, so regularly as they have little foresight for upside picks. Red Line Report had Sean Monahan 6th they had Emile Poirier 21st and Morgan Klimchuk 27th.. Where did the Flames take them again? (6, 22, 28). If you think they are favorable to everyone, let me remind you they had Montreal's first Rounder Michael McCarron 79th, Columbus first Marko Dano 74th and Dallas first Jason Dickinson 64th.

Stoked to watch Emile Poirier July 10th hopefully FN critics see something that they never saw from a Kris Chucko (not going to be hard, IMO). Anyone I talk to out east says Emile Poirier gained at least a full step this season from last and all were throughly impressed by his game as things progressed.

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#35 If Only HIs Name Was Olli Postandin
July 03 2013, 01:35AM
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Regarding Monahan, check out this very interesting article of how to use proxies to estimate the quality of competition in lesser leagues like the CHL. According to the data, Monahan faced probably the toughest competition of any CHL player, which makes his stats all the more impressive. link: http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/6/26/4455830/draft-prospect-toi-quality-of-competition

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