Flames Re-sign McGrattan

Kent Wilson
July 04 2013 05:36PM

 

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For two years apparently. Because GRITCHART.

 

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Former Nations Overlord. Current Fn contributor and curmudgeon For questions, complaints, criticisms, etc contact Kent @ kent.wilson@gmail. Follow him on Twitter here.
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#151 alex
July 04 2013, 11:02PM
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@BurningSensation

It would be arrogant to assume your numbers are correct.

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#152 BurningSensation
July 04 2013, 11:02PM
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jeremywilhelm wrote:

So then it's negligible. Thus making them useless compared to a player that can actually put the puck in the net or keep they puck out of theirs.

Games are not won by who is the toughest and who can punch the hardest and hit the most. Hockey games are won by putting pucks in the net. That's the entirety of the game. You can't scare a puck into the net. You can't punch a puck into the net.

There is a difference between 'negligible' and 'statistically indeterminate'.

Look coaches and players have thousands events in a game that are shaded in terms of success and failure by infinitesimal statistical margins. Win enough of those tiny events and you can turn the game to your favour.

This could be anything from the position of a players hands in terms of taking a draw, or whether the Dman is positioned closer to the center of the umbrella on the powerplay.

Having seen and felt the benefit of having an enforcer first hand, at a psychological level I believe it exists.

I'm just not certain that our stats are capable of teasing what (if any) that benefit actually translates into.

Corsi, etc. for all their benefit (and I think it's almost revolutionary) is nevertheless something of a blunt instrument. It can't tell you whether Marchand is driving Corsi because he is really fast, great at puckhandling or just driving the opposition so crazy that they make more mistakes. It's a bunt instrument that wants everything to be a nail.

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#153 jeremywilhelm
July 04 2013, 11:02PM
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@Parallex

I stand corrected. My entire viewpoint is now changed on the matter!

Haha.

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#154 BurningSensation
July 04 2013, 11:03PM
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alex wrote:

It would be arrogant to assume your numbers are correct.

Of course, I merely present them as hypothetical.

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#155 jeremywilhelm
July 04 2013, 11:06PM
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@BurningSensation

PPP has done numerous checks over the years of a teams success when one of their goons fight. Wins. Losses. Goal scoring immediately before and after fights. Puck possession changes because of fighting. Effects of goons playing more/less minutes on outcomes. Almost universally they find that fight has no effect or detrimental effects to the outcomes of games.

If it has no effect, then would not putting a hockey player in the place of a useless goon not be a better choice and swing games in your favour? Makes common sense to me.

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#156 BurningSensation
July 04 2013, 11:07PM
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@RexLibris

"Intangibles play a bit part in hockey decisions. But neither they nor stats should be given complete dominance"

Agreed. Though you may want to check that Seguin tattoo story. If I recall correctly it was something he did along with his father, and not some self-aggrandizing impulse display.

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#157 BurningSensation
July 04 2013, 11:14PM
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jeremywilhelm wrote:

PPP has done numerous checks over the years of a teams success when one of their goons fight. Wins. Losses. Goal scoring immediately before and after fights. Puck possession changes because of fighting. Effects of goons playing more/less minutes on outcomes. Almost universally they find that fight has no effect or detrimental effects to the outcomes of games.

If it has no effect, then would not putting a hockey player in the place of a useless goon not be a better choice and swing games in your favour? Makes common sense to me.

I actually don't have a dog in this fight. I am perfectly willing to believe that the effect is purely psychological and that it is a bias of narrative over reality.

I suspect though that something else is going on, and that the psychological effects reflect reality, but that the statistical difference is either too intermittent to be adjudicated, swamped by noise (because Corsi is a very blunt instrument - stat heads often confuse the statistic with the reality, i.e. the Marchand example I gave above, is he driving Corsi because of his talent, or because of his talent for making people crazy, or both?), or otherwise not visible in terms of possession.

Corsi will show that McGrattan doesn't drive possession on the ice. But it won't show what effects his presence (not necessarily his fighting) has on the rest of the roster.

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#158 Colin.S
July 04 2013, 11:18PM
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Veggie Dog wrote:

I hope to Christ there are signings of more consequence to talk about tomorrow.

I hope not, there are rumors of Bozak getting 8yrs/5 million AAV, really don't want to be talking about that at all.

If we can nab Grabovski and MaCarthur, that's another story.

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#159 RexLibris
July 04 2013, 11:22PM
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@BurningSensation

Fair enough. It was a quick impression and there wasn't anything in the newspaper story to explain.

I'm not defending crack impressions, or that they should be used to make serious roster decisions like drafting a player 1st overall. But there are situations in life where they need to be weighed alongside the statistical story.

On another note, if you could only get one name which free-agent do you want the Flames to sign tomorrow?

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#160 jeremywilhelm
July 04 2013, 11:22PM
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Grabovski

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#161 Justin Azevedo
July 04 2013, 11:23PM
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thanks for returning to normalcy, gents. keep it clean

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#162 jeremywilhelm
July 04 2013, 11:23PM
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Or Gilbert. Either would be great on a 3 year deal.

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#163 clyde
July 04 2013, 11:30PM
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jeremywilhelm wrote:

The guy is qualifying his argument by telling us he is an NHL player. I call BS. If he is? Fantastic, doesn't really help his argument to say something like that without backing it up. Just makes his opinion contrived and laughable.

I played pro too. I continue to work on coaching and have ex teammates in pro coaching as well as ex athletes I trained playing. You are right, no matter the level, we need to keep evolving and learning. I will say that I spend time listening to people not only at a high level but all levels. These advanced stats on sites we look at are not ignored but also, not necessarily what are used to drive decisions. Just saying. And, whether some of you like it or not, grit is valued.

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#164 schevvy
July 04 2013, 11:32PM
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Wow this escalated quickly. I blame Rex

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#165 clyde
July 04 2013, 11:34PM
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jeremywilhelm wrote:

PPP has done numerous checks over the years of a teams success when one of their goons fight. Wins. Losses. Goal scoring immediately before and after fights. Puck possession changes because of fighting. Effects of goons playing more/less minutes on outcomes. Almost universally they find that fight has no effect or detrimental effects to the outcomes of games.

If it has no effect, then would not putting a hockey player in the place of a useless goon not be a better choice and swing games in your favour? Makes common sense to me.

It's because stats can only measure what can be measured. Not the psychological benefits in this case.

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#166 clyde
July 04 2013, 11:36PM
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schevvy wrote:

Wow this escalated quickly. I blame Rex

Blame Kent. He did a great job generating some passion.

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#167 BurningSensation
July 04 2013, 11:38PM
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RexLibris wrote:

I wondered about Gilbert for the Flames.

I'd suggest two years in the range of $3 million per.

I seriously hate Gilbert.

He's the wrong age, soft, and not a good fit IMO.

I'd prefer the Flames simply claim Blum and Grabovski off waivers.

If we have to sign a guy, I really like Filpulla. He'd be exactly the kind of cushion against tough units the kids will need, he won't require a Croesus ransom, and he should be a good fit next to former linemate Hudler.

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#168 Baalzamon
July 04 2013, 11:45PM
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@jeremywilhelm

"You can't punch a puck into the net."

Actually you can if you're Henri Richard.

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#169 Parallex
July 04 2013, 11:47PM
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clyde wrote:

It's because stats can only measure what can be measured. Not the psychological benefits in this case.

If the psychological benefits exist (and are at all meaningful) then they would show up somewhere statistically.

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#170 schevvy
July 04 2013, 11:58PM
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This conversation can be summed up by so many Anchorman quotes I've lost count

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#171 ?
July 05 2013, 12:15AM
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KILL

ME

NOW

EDIT: That's my reaction to the title

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#172 Colin.S
July 05 2013, 12:29AM
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BurningSensation wrote:

I seriously hate Gilbert.

He's the wrong age, soft, and not a good fit IMO.

I'd prefer the Flames simply claim Blum and Grabovski off waivers.

If we have to sign a guy, I really like Filpulla. He'd be exactly the kind of cushion against tough units the kids will need, he won't require a Croesus ransom, and he should be a good fit next to former linemate Hudler.

I'm all for Blum as well, did he actually go on waivers? I heard he was going but never saw anything and heard he was getting a buyout as well.

I can't believe we were not all over that if its the case, I kept thinking there was someone else that I wanted before Gilbert and it was Blum.

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#173 Derzie
July 05 2013, 12:47AM
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No problem with this at all. As long as he is the only one (goon), we're good to go.

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#174 Colin.S
July 05 2013, 12:51AM
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Derzie wrote:

No problem with this at all. As long as he is the only one (goon), we're good to go.

I have to agree with this, I still remember the summer that Darryl went out and got Ivanans and Jackman and wondered what the hell he was doing.

If ALL we get is McGratton, that's better than picking up several face punchers if we can just have one really mean one I guess.

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#175 Captain Ron
July 05 2013, 12:59AM
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RexLibris wrote:

I wondered about Gilbert for the Flames.

I'd suggest two years in the range of $3 million per.

2 years at 3 mil per year for Gilbert? You make me laugh!

Would you be OK with your Oilers signing him on a deal like that? If you are then from what I read on ON a lot of your fellow Oiler fans would disagree with you. You can have him. I sure as hell don't want him in a Flames jersey at any price.

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#176 clyde
July 05 2013, 01:24AM
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Parallex wrote:

If the psychological benefits exist (and are at all meaningful) then they would show up somewhere statistically.

Perhaps they do. Just not in Jim Corsi's world.

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#177 Craig
July 05 2013, 04:41AM
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In my opinion, it is much better to have a team infused with players that can hit and stand up for themselves if they need to. If guys are afraid to take a hit, then they need to hit the gym.

The reality is the game has changed dramatically, we don't need goons that can't skate taking up space, we need four lines that can all drive possesion. If were going to have an effective fourth line I'd rather it be made up of tim jackman, Bouma, #Blairjones that are going to out hit, out skate and outshoot the opposition, but can be called upon to get gritty every now and again. These players are where real unstaged fights come from. Ideally every line would be able to handle themselves on the ice.

I see a lot of comments about how Gretzky needed an enforcer, and he did. but that was a long time ago, the game has changed, the stats are changing, and teams need less and less plugs, as we move forward with new generation of coaches we will see less dancing bears and more big solid utility players.

ps. Love the picture for this post. So perfect.

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#178 Parallex
July 05 2013, 06:22AM
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clyde wrote:

Perhaps they do. Just not in Jim Corsi's world.

Okey... where? I'm willing to be convinced, prove to me quantitatively that having some no skill knucklechucker can actually make teams better.

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#179 wattree
July 05 2013, 06:53AM
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Not a fan of this signing, especially with Brodie and Backlind still unsigned, but watching that fourth line crash and bang was highly entertaining towards the end of the year

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#180 the-wolf
July 05 2013, 07:27AM
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I'll give Feaster credit for improving the Flames' scouting dept., but when it comes to signings and trades he's proven himself to be thoroughly mediocre.

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#181 piscera.infada
July 05 2013, 08:24AM
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I'm late to the party, but here goes. Perhaps we're looking at this "goon issue" in the wrong light. I understand that having a guy on your team that can do NOTHING but punch faces serves no real purpose. That said, if the guy is good in the dressing room, on the bench, and generally liked by the rest of the team (as I hear McGrattan is), I don't really see the issue in signing him for >1 mill. per season.

I mean, while we can debate the psychological effects of face-punching, I'm not sure anyone is going to debate the effects of having a solid teammate/team-player on your team. I feel McGrattan serves more of a purpose than just throwing his fists around. Perhaps if we had a great deal more skill on this roster, I would feel different - but we don't. Just my thoughts though (if you can't tell, I like the guy).

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#182 The Last Big Bear
July 05 2013, 08:42AM
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I think the Flames should sign Josh McGrattan too, because I think only one McGrattan is NOT ENOUGH.

How do you like THEM apples, Kent?

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#183 Colin.S
July 05 2013, 09:09AM
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@piscera.infada

There isn't a big issue in the money because it doesn't affect Calgary's cap situation this season at least. The issue is putting a player on the ice that is only good at one thing, punching faces, and if you put him out against other face punchers that's one thing, but if he gets caught out against people with legitimate skill, that's a problem, cause 9 times out of 10, the puck is going to remain in your end and generate a scoring chance.

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