Setting Expecations: Sven Baertschi

Christian Roatis
August 20 2013 08:48AM

 

 

I recently conducted a fan Q&A and the question of "How many points will Sven Baertschi get next season?" came up. I predicted his total would land around 50 but wouldn't really be disappointed if it ended up being slightly below that. Some agreed with me while others thought that 50 points was a little too large of total to expect out of guy in his circumstance.

The idea however intrigued me. How many points can we realistically expect out of a 20-21 year old who just recently tore up the Western league but with only 25 NHL games under his belt?

Obviously we can't accurately predict a precise point total for Baertschi, but we can use history to approximately gauge what an appropriate expectation would be. In order to do this I took a look at past performances by NHLers in their 20-21 year old season using the 04/05 lockout as a starting point to see which group of players Baertschi could best compare to.

I looked at factors like NHL games played prior to their turning 21, their performance in their final year of pre-Pro hockey action and how good their NHL squad was that season to try and identify a pattern that would help predict future performance. There are , of course, many factors that will directly affect Baertschi's final point total including injury, luck and role, but for this little "experiment" we'll assume he plays 82 games.

For me, the minimum point total I'd like to see out of Baertschi in a full seasonn without feeling disappointed would be 35 (maybe more for some of you or maybe less) which works out to a point per game average of 0.427. I used that as the minimum PPG average for eligibility on the chart.

I also required the player to be within range of Baertschi's age (20 to 21) and have 50 games played that year (that eliminates anyone from this past 48 game season or who pumped out points in a limited amount of games). Since the 2005/06 NHL season there have been 55 guys who fit those qualifications.

Take a look: 

 Bolded: Comparable to Baertschi

Player

Season

GP/PPG

Points/82 games

# of NHL Games pre 21 Year Old Season

Team's Final Season Rank

PPG in Last Pre-Pro Season/ League

Sidney Crosby

2008/09           

77/ 1.338

109

213

8

2.709/QMJHL

Evgeni Malkin

2007/08

82/ 1.293

106

78

4

1.021/Russia

Eric Staal

2005/06

82/ 1.220

100

81

3

1.485/OHL

Alexander Ovechkin

2006/07

82/ 1.122

 

92

81

27

0.730/Russia

 

Steven Stamkos

 

2010/11

82/ 1.110

91

161

8

1.721/OHL

Patrick Kane

2009/10

82/ 1.073

88

162

3

2.500/OHL

Niklas Backstrom

2008/09

82/ 1.079

88

82

4

0.889/SHL

Rick Nash

2005/06

54/ 1.000

82

154

25

1.333/OHL

John Tavares

2011/12

82/ 0.988

81

161

27

1.857/OHL

Jordan Eberle

2011/12

78/ 0.974

80

69

29

1.860/WHL

Paul Stastny

2006/07

82/ 0.951

78

0

14

0.872/NCAA

Patrice Bergeron

2006/07

77/ 0.909

74

152

23

1.043/QMJHL

Jonathan Toews

2009/10

79/ 0.895

73

146

3

1.353/NCAA

Phil Kessel

2008/09

70/ 0.857

70

152

2

1.308/NCAA

Jamie Benn

2010/11

69/ 0.812

67

82

16

1.464/WHL

Anze Kopitar

2008/09

82/ 0.805

66

154

26

0.426/SHL

Devin Setoguchi

2008/09

81/ 0.802

66

44

1

1.181 /WHL

Nathan Horton

2006/07

82/ 0.756

62

126

21

1.259/OHL

Nikolai Zherdev

2005/06

73/ 0.740

61

57

25

0.200/Russia

Pierre-Marc Bouchard

2005/06

80/ 0.738

60

111

22

2.029/QMJHL

Alex Radulov

2007/08

81/ 0.716

59

64

17

2.45/QMJHL

Ryan Getzlaf

2006/07

82/ 0.707

58

57

3

1.060 /WHL

Adam Henrique

2011/12

74/ 0.689

56

1

8

1.426/OHL

Kyle Okposo

2009/10

80/0.650

53

74

26

0.611/NCAA

Bryan Little

2008/09

79/ 0.646

53

48

27

1.877/OHL

Wojtek Wolski

2007/08

77/ 0.623

51

85

11

2.286/OHL

Derek Stepan

2011/12

82/ 0.622

51

82

2

1.317/NCAA

Sam Ganger

2010/11

68/0.618

51

223

30

2.226/ OHL

Alex Steen

2005/06

75/ 0.600

49

0

18

0.34/ SHL

Jordan Staal   

2009/10

82/ 0.598

49

245

9

1.000/ OHL

Tyler Ennis

2010/11

82/ 0.598

49

10

15

1.393/ WHL

Jeff Carter

2006/07

62/ 0.597

49

81

30

1.345/ OHL

Thomas Vanek

2005/06

81/ 0.593

48

0

5

1.342/ NCAA

Jakub Voracek

2010/11

80/ 0.575

47

161

24

1.906/QMJHL

Marcus Johansson

2011/12

80/ 0.575

47

69

16

0.476/SHL

David Perron

2009/10

82/ 0.573

47

143

16

1.186/QMJHL

TJ Galiardi

2009/10

70/ 0.557

46

11

2

0.972/WHL

Mike Richards

2006/07

59/ 0.542

44

79

30

1.349/OHL

Corey Perry

2006/07

82/ 0.537

44

56

3

1.712/ OHL

Peter Mueller

2009/10

69/ 0.536

44

153

4

1.529/ WHL

James van Riemsdyk

2010/11

75/ 0.533

44

78

3

1.111/ NCAA

Travis Zajac

2006/07

80/ 0.525

43

0

6

1.022/ NCAA

Michael Frolik

2009/10

82/ 0.524

43

79

28

1.444/ QMJHL

Wayne Simmonds

2009/10

78/ 0.513

42

82

8

1.161/ OHL

Patrick Eaves

2005/06

58/ 0.500

41

0

2

1.333/ NCAA

Steve Bernier

2006/07

62/ 0.500

41

39

7

1.044/ QMJHL

Brandon Dubinsky

2007/08

82/ 0.488

40

6

8

1.314/ WHL

James Neal

2008/09

77/ 0.481

39

0

22

1.444/ OHL

Guillaume Latendresse

2008/09           

56/ 0.464

38

153

13

1.627/ QMJHL

Andrew Cogliano

2008/09

82/ 0.463

38

82

21

1.316/ NCAA

Milan Michalek

2005/06

81/ 0.432

35

2

11

0.174/ CZE

Sven Baertschi

2013/14

?

?

25

Bottom 10

2.000/WHL

 Observations

- Six out of the Eight players that scored at a point per game pace or better in their 21 year old season played on Top 8 NHL teams, and every one of them are currently elite players.

- With the exception of a few, every player that scored at a 0.432 PPG pace or better is currently a well established NHLer if not an above average one.

- Team Rank doesn't appear to be a big influence on point production. The quality of line mates and competition is different on a case to case basis.

- Every single guy except Michalek scored at a CHL equivalent PPG basis in their final junior year.

At this point, the best comparables for Baertschi would be players with similar NHL experience prior to his 21 year old season, and scoring performance in their final pre-Pro season. There are a number of guys that scored within 0.500 of Baertschi's 2.00 PPG average in the CHL, but most of them had much more NHL experience to that point in their career's than Sven does.

Finding players with similar pre-21 GP was a lot tougher and although NHL experience in valuable, you can't disregard Baertschi's tremendous 2 PPG WHL season when finding comparables, so I narrowed down players who had similar numbers in both columns.

There were five guys on the chart above that best fit that criteria: Jordan Eberle, Alex Radulov, Bryan Little, Corey Perry and James Neal. All of them are quality players (even though Radulov isn't in the NHL he's still a special player). Ignoring stuff like size and nationality, all of these guys had a lot in common with Baertschi at this point in their careers. From the games played to the points they put up in Junior, there are many similarities to be found between Sven and the six bolded gentleman listed.

The one thing that does maybe cripple this style of predicition (aside from luck, which is impossible to predict) is the quality of teammates that the comparables played with. Eberle had equally talented young gun Taylor Hall at his side all throughout his 20/21 season, while Perry had Ryan Getzlaf.

Bryan Little spent a lot of time with Mr. KHL, Ilya Kovalchuck - who scored points during his time in the NHL like it was nobodies business - during his 21 year old season and no doubt benefited greatly from it. Thomas Vanek too saw sometime with Chris Drury and Danny Briere who were both high level NHLers at the time.

Baertschi, on the other hand, will at best be surrounded by Mike Cammalleri, Mikael Backund, Matt Stajan, Lee Stempniak or Jiri Hudler - not terrible, but certainly not a collection of all stars. Alex Radulov actually found himself in similar circumstances in Nashville, not playing with the greatest of line mates and emerged as a difference maker himself. Hopefully Baertschi is able to take a similar road this season and doesn't pull a Patty Eaves - who only bested his 21 year old season point total once during his 9 year stay in the NHL - and become a support player.

Conclusion

Regardless of all this, if we were to average out the chart, it would give us a PPG average of 0.685 which translates to 56 points in 82 games. Pretty close to my random prediction of 50. I'm sure every Flames fan would be pleased if this were the actual result of Baertschi's 2013/14 season but chances are it won't quite end up being this high since the average skewed by outliers like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Steven Stamkos and Alex Ovechkin.

Using history like this is nowhere near an exact science and for all we know it could be completely off, but it is something. There are also factors like injury and the aforementioned line mates that could hinder Baertschi's production, but history has shown that players that come into their 21 year old season under similar circumstances to Baertschi, tend to do pretty well.

What is your expectation for Sven Baertschi in 2013/14?

20eba9f84d9905f9b859288e29c3e0a8
Christian Roatis is a European by birth, Calgarian by heart. Other than writing at FlamesNation, he writes about and scouts NHL Draft Prospects at Future Considerations. Follow him on Twitter @CRoatis!
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#1 bookofloob
August 20 2013, 08:55AM
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ALL THE POINTS

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#2 Colin.S
August 20 2013, 09:07AM
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I'm setting the Great Season bar at 50 points, a good season being about 35 and a poor season at about 20 points. Depending on who he is playing with and how fast a lot of the older warm bodies get sent out, this team could be incredibly bad, very fast, and it might be tough to score when you never leave your own zone.

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#3 Jeff In Lethbridge
August 20 2013, 09:10AM
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considering the rebuild mentality of the Flames, I expect guys like Sven to get lots of opportunity and ice time, while getting relatively sheltered... meaning good points.

50+ is my guess...

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#4 jakeryley
August 20 2013, 09:16AM
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21 goals and 20 assists.

Baertschi begins his run of consecutive 20 goal seasons that will last the duration of his career.

Not much of a stretch considering he'll likely have 1st unit PP time all season.

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#5 mk
August 20 2013, 09:22AM
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@jakeryley

Consecutive seasons of only 20 goals? I thought it was normal to have players that get 30 goals consistently. Oh wait...

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#6 Jeff Lebowski
August 20 2013, 09:30AM
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I don't want to jinx him or anything but Baertschi needs to figure out how to stay healthy. First and foremost.

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#7 Kurt
August 20 2013, 09:50AM
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I predict 40pts.

I think some of the comparables here are pretty lofty. With the exception of Vanek they all had what equates to a full NHL season under their belts at this stage of the game.

Deep down I think this speaks to the quality of the prospects (ability to jump up earlier), but if we whitewash that away and assume they are all equally as awesome but Sven is just a late bloomer then it still doesn't reflect totally accurate because you should be looking at the previous year. IE - Eberle's rookie year, no his 2nd year, even though you are comparing them at the same age.

Anyways, I really enjoyed this article, and I realize there is no perfect way to predict. We'll have to wait and see!

Semi related, some people mentioned Sven getting soft minutes to pad his stats. I wonder if thats how it'll happen.... This is how it normally works with a rookie on a good team. They get sheltered etc. But on a rebuild at ground zero, don't you just roll the lines.... I'd suggest Sven will get tough minutes (which is GOOD). It will be interesting to see how coach H rolls things.

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#8 TRAV
August 20 2013, 09:51AM
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I think that this is a well written article. The research must have taken some time! I also don't want to jinx him but injuries are my main worry for Sven. Tough to get points from the press box. I think he has all the talent but worry about the talent of his supporting cast. I also agree with others on here who have said that we should be mindful of trading away all of our quality NHL guys for fear of the way that it will hurt the development of our youngsters. Look at the way that confidence affected Sven last year. Important not to overface them too early..

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#9 Demetric
August 20 2013, 09:54AM
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to play

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#10 Kent Wilson
August 20 2013, 10:04AM
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Playing a full season competently will be a win for Sven if it happens. Because this method used a 25 game cut-off point prior to the 20-21 year old season, it excluded a lot of guys including elite level players like Claude Giroux who got their fist taste of the NHL at about this point in their career. Bobby Ryan, Cody Hodgson, Ryan Getzlaf...none of them were regulars in their 20-21 year old season.

If he plays in the top-6, isn't overwhelmed and scores at even moderate pace, I'll be happy.

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#11 Parallex
August 20 2013, 10:14AM
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I still think 50 is high... I mean he can hit it if he's allocated certain things (quality linemates, top 6 icetime, 1st unit PP, not crappy circumstances).

But the Flames actually don't have bad depth on the wings (Cammy, Stempniak, Hudler, Glencross, Jones) so he'll get okey quality linemates but it's not like he'll get a ton of extra icetime by default and it's not like he won't have tons of competition for special teams play.

Sven is a long-term asset so I think I'd rather have him play on the third-line (Probably with Knight & Hudler) right now and give him 2nd unit special team play (PP & PK). That's probably not cushy enough circumstances to get him to 50 but I think it's better for both him and the team in the long-run.

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#12 coachedpotatoe
August 20 2013, 10:29AM
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A couple of other people have mentioned this but there are two key factors; 1: does he stay healthy the whole year 2: who does he get to play with. I would have him playing with two veterans and allow him to play in every situation. My two linemates for him would be Bachlund and either Glencross or Hudler. Players who have offensive abilities but can play possession hockey and will also hold him accountable on and off the ice.

I believe he can be a good two way player with an offensive upside but only if he is given the proper opportunities and the proper mentorship. I also believe the same for the other young players although they may not have his offensive upside.

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#13 clyde
August 20 2013, 10:37AM
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I hope he is a player who can make his linemates better rather than needing them to make him better. I am hopeful that he will actually be a player who exceeds expectations and that we see a few more of our young players do the same.

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#14 coachedpotatoe
August 20 2013, 10:57AM
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clyde wrote:

I hope he is a player who can make his linemates better rather than needing them to make him better. I am hopeful that he will actually be a player who exceeds expectations and that we see a few more of our young players do the same.

Clyde: I think he will make players around him better but I am not sure that will happen this year. As the rest of the talent level arrives I can see him being a cornerstone player but this year he needs to play with sound two way players. But I don't see any benefit for playing him with Knight or Horak (at the start of the season) as his centermen as they will be finding their own way as NHLers and their development will also be accelerated playing with veteran wingers. I would likely have the kids playing together after the trade deadline as they then be more true NHL players.

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#15 clyde
August 20 2013, 11:04AM
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coachedpotatoe wrote:

Clyde: I think he will make players around him better but I am not sure that will happen this year. As the rest of the talent level arrives I can see him being a cornerstone player but this year he needs to play with sound two way players. But I don't see any benefit for playing him with Knight or Horak (at the start of the season) as his centermen as they will be finding their own way as NHLers and their development will also be accelerated playing with veteran wingers. I would likely have the kids playing together after the trade deadline as they then be more true NHL players.

I agree with all of that.

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#16 RKD
August 20 2013, 11:32AM
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I'm expecting he's getting top 3 or top 6 minutes, I think not only will he hit 35 points but he will pass it. 50 points sounds very doable but this will be his first full season barring any injuries.

This fanbase needs something to cheer about, it's one thing to endure losses but if guys like Barts, Monahan(if he stays) and Knight are mediocre it will make this rebuild tough to swallow. The Flames need a one or two truly shining stars to stand out to show that they are going in the right direction.

I think Baertschi can be a game-changer. I think his ceiling is pretty high and he could be a special player for years to come.

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#17 coachedpotatoe
August 20 2013, 11:59AM
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@clyde

Clyde: What would be your lines? Here's mine: Sven, Bachlund, Glencross Stajan, Cammi, Jones (he wants to prove he's a goal scorer) Knight, Hudler, TJG Monahan, Horak(this way Horak will have to take faceoffs and will be ready when Monahan goes down after 9 games), Stemp. This unfortunately leaves Jackman sitting.

I would also roll these lines and not be concerned with protecting the kids too much.

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#18 Ryan Pike
August 20 2013, 11:59AM
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Over a full 82 game schedule, I'd guess-timate that Baertschi should have around 40-45 points, depending on ice-time and line-mates.

Based on last season, I'm sure he'd be happy to merely be a servicable full-time NHLer this year. Baby steps and all that.

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#19 schevvy
August 20 2013, 12:05PM
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I'm surprised Feaster hasn't said that Baertschi, Backlund and Hudler will ALL get 100+ points.

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#20 SmellOfVictory
August 20 2013, 12:17PM
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Two things:

1) Everyone with their modest expectations seems to be forgetting that Sven has been anointed the Flames' savoir. Prediction: 68 points.

2) I'm not particularly superstitious but ohgodstoptalkingaboutinjuriesyou'reogingtojinxhim.

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#21 clyde
August 20 2013, 01:05PM
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coachedpotatoe wrote:

Clyde: What would be your lines? Here's mine: Sven, Bachlund, Glencross Stajan, Cammi, Jones (he wants to prove he's a goal scorer) Knight, Hudler, TJG Monahan, Horak(this way Horak will have to take faceoffs and will be ready when Monahan goes down after 9 games), Stemp. This unfortunately leaves Jackman sitting.

I would also roll these lines and not be concerned with protecting the kids too much.

I like to mix a straight line player with a nose for the net in with my best possession players and you have done that with the first line. May switch Stemp in for Glenx to allow Sven to stay on the left side. Although you have Jackman sitting, I am wondering if he has much left anyway. Seems pretty beat up and perhaps Bouma can fill. I still like some physicality on a 4rth line that can provide energy too.

So, 1. Sven, Backlund, Stemp. 2. Glenx, Stajan, Hudler 3. Cammy, Monohan, Jones 4. TJG, Knight/Knight, Bouma 5. Mcgratten, Jackman Horak/Knight comes up if/when Monohan goes down or we trade a vet. If Bouma does well, Jackman could go. Cammy gets 1st pp time but soft minutes. Those are my thoughts at present but lines are an on going chemistry experiment and I look forward to seeing how Hartley manages the team.

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#23 beloch
August 20 2013, 02:58PM
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@Christian Roatis

"For me, the minimum point total I'd like to see out of Baertschi in a full season without feeling disappointed would be 35 (maybe more for some of you or maybe less) which works out to a point per game average of 0.427. I used that as the minimum PPG average for eligibility on the chart."

We do appreciate your effort, but by omitting "disappointments" you're leaving your argument unfinished. How many players have scored at a >1ppg pace in junior only to fizzle out in the NHL? If we want to have realistic expectations of what lighting up the AHL means in general, we need that part of the picture. By design, you're finding only what you wanted to find.

Don't get me wrong. After watching the svensation play at the end of the last season, it looked like he was ready to be trusted with the kind of ice-time a player needs to post a pretty stat sheet. I think he's going to get 40+ points.

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#24 T&A4Flames
August 20 2013, 02:59PM
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coachedpotatoe wrote:

Clyde: What would be your lines? Here's mine: Sven, Bachlund, Glencross Stajan, Cammi, Jones (he wants to prove he's a goal scorer) Knight, Hudler, TJG Monahan, Horak(this way Horak will have to take faceoffs and will be ready when Monahan goes down after 9 games), Stemp. This unfortunately leaves Jackman sitting.

I would also roll these lines and not be concerned with protecting the kids too much.

I like the 1st line. I would have said either GlenX or Jones on the right side to add grit and some protection to Sven. Having Backlund as the best possession player is exactly right.

2nd line would be Cammi Stajan and Stempniak with some soft minutes to boost production for future trades. GlenX, Knight and Galiardi could be a tough minutes line. I'm not sure where you place Hudler but he can slot in on the 2nd or 3rd line on the right side pushing TJG down to the 4th with Bouma and Jackman.

But, there is so much that can happen between now, the season start and as the season progresses.

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#25 Kurt
August 20 2013, 03:08PM
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@schevvy

LOL! This made ma laugh.

Whats with all the trashing? Feaster lovers I guess.

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#26 SeanCharles
August 20 2013, 08:47PM
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Top-6 minutes and significant PP time is in his future.

He scored what, 9pts in the last 7 games?

I don't expect him to keep that pace up but he is still the same kid who scored in 3 straight games in his 5 game NHL debut. The first game he had jitters and in the last game Sutter was scared to play him in the Oilers @sskicking.

He has all the skills to put up points and with Tanguay gone he will be relied upon.

He, along with Hudler, Cammy, Backlund, Glencross, Brodie and Wideman, will get significant PP time next season.

I dont think its such a bad group. He showed some chemistry early on with Backlund and later on with Hudler last season. I think those 3 have alot more to offer than they did last season.

I wouldnt mind having them as a line:

Cammalleri-Monahan-Jones

Baertschi-Backlund-Hudler

Glencross-Stajan-Stempniak

Galiardi-Knight-Bouma

Give Stajan's line the hard minutes again, it worked alright last yr.

I dont see how Sven can score less than .5pts/g given his skillset.

Thus, I can see at least 40pts out of him and wouldnt say its out of the realm of possibility that he scores 50+...

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#27 Justin Azevedo
August 20 2013, 09:23PM
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45 in 82 works out to .55 ppg. that would make him a 2nd liner on about 25 teams and a 3rd liner on 5 teams. there's no way he's there yet so i'll say .45 points per game this year. anyone going above .55 is off their rocker.

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#28 clyde
August 20 2013, 11:42PM
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Sven is averaging .52 points per game while only averaging 13 minutes of ice time per game and next to no pp time. ( he has yet to get a pp point) With an increase in minutes and powerplay opportunities, I can see him scoring 50 plus if healthy.

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#29 McRib
August 21 2013, 09:06AM
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Sven Baertschi had nine points in his last seven games during the most competitive part of the season amongst other teams playoff drives. Considering he will be playing big minutes this year if he stays healthy 50-60 points is where I expect him. Its interesting as Jordan Eberle is by far the closes comparable to him lets hope he is closer to that rather than a Nazem Kadri who took a couple more years. The interesting thing about this list is no one even close to his 2.0 PPG CHL rate finished with less than 40 points. The only CHLer since Sven to hit 2.0 PPG is Jonathan Drouin!!! His junior points are in elite company if he wasn't injured at the start of his NHL campaign last year 40 points might not been out of the question in a reduced year. Not only did he have 9 points in his last 7 games, but he made those points look easy.

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#30 Justin Azevedo
August 21 2013, 09:07AM
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@clyde

sample size of like 25 games.

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#31 Clyde
August 21 2013, 09:13AM
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Justin Azevedo wrote:

sample size of like 25 games.

Yes, it is a small sample size. But, he is a scorer and has done this with next to no pp time and only 13 minutes of ice a night.

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#32 McRib
August 21 2013, 09:53AM
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Considering Sven was clearly battling nagging injuries for 5-10 games early last season. A sample size of 13 points in 15 games is more like it for me.

Even if the Flames are absolutly horrendous, I still think he gets 40+ points in his sleep the kid is just an elite finisher!!

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#33 Justin Azevedo
August 21 2013, 11:05AM
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post tdl (10 games), where he got 9 of his 10 points, he averaged almost 16 minutes per game with a significant amount of time on pp1.

if 13 in 15 is the pace he's on he'll get 70 points. that's insane.

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#34 clyde
August 21 2013, 11:23AM
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Justin Azevedo wrote:

post tdl (10 games), where he got 9 of his 10 points, he averaged almost 16 minutes per game with a significant amount of time on pp1.

if 13 in 15 is the pace he's on he'll get 70 points. that's insane.

Why is 70 points insane? When he got to play with scorers, and got more ice, he scored at a much higher rate as you state above. Considering he has yet to get a pp point, who knows? I don't think 70 is realistic for this year but if he is healthy, I think he will be above 50.

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#35 Justin Azevedo
August 21 2013, 11:34AM
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@clyde

70 points in 82 games would make him a first liner on every team in the nhl. i can name at least 60 wingers and likely 120 forwards that are better than him right now.

his on ice shooting percentage during that stint was almost 14% as well, so basically double normal. he rode percentages and easy minutes in a 10 game stretch. he won't get much more ice time, will have tougher minutes to play and worse percentages this year. i just don't see how over an 82 game season that can end up with a 21/22yo increasing his production y-o-y

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20132ALLFAFALL&viewName=points&sort=avgPointsPerGame&pg=2

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#36 clyde
August 21 2013, 12:50PM
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Justin Azevedo wrote:

70 points in 82 games would make him a first liner on every team in the nhl. i can name at least 60 wingers and likely 120 forwards that are better than him right now.

his on ice shooting percentage during that stint was almost 14% as well, so basically double normal. he rode percentages and easy minutes in a 10 game stretch. he won't get much more ice time, will have tougher minutes to play and worse percentages this year. i just don't see how over an 82 game season that can end up with a 21/22yo increasing his production y-o-y

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20132ALLFAFALL&viewName=points&sort=avgPointsPerGame&pg=2

120? As long as he is in the top 3-6 here and getting the pp time and minutes that go with being a top 6 forward, he will score.

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#37 The Last Big Bear
August 21 2013, 12:52PM
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I think Sven needs to make his mark as the future face of this franchise, and put this Monahan kid back in his place... Calder-style.

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#38 McRib
August 21 2013, 02:30PM
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@Justin Azevedo

The biggest thing I think people are overlooking is during the final 9 game stint Sven was finally healthy!!!! So that would be the major difference for me with the increase. Obviously having a 14% Shooting Percentage for a full 82 games is something else, but I think we will see that nagging injuries were really hampering Sven last season early on, until he was forced out of the lineup and returned for the first time at 100%. Sven is lights out hashmarks in its only a matter of time before he hits 70 Points, but that most likely is a year or two away.

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