Random Thoughts - In Favour of the Stajan Re-up

Kent Wilson
January 23 2014 07:41AM

 

 

Before I get to the Matt Stajan stuff, let's get the Canucks/Flames brawl out of the way...

I don't have any strong feelings on the subject. I think Hartley definitely iced the goon squad with a view to starting something and I definitely think Tortorella could have countered with a scoring line to defuse the whole thing. Of course, one of the unwritten rules of the North American game is obvious aggression MUST be met with aggression, so Tortorella "couldn't" do anything but fight fire with fire according to the still persistent machismo mores of the NHL. Ironically, had a Sedin vs McGrattan match-up happened organically during the game, Tortorella would have taken it eagerly.

Which is, I think, the best way to counter outright thuggery in the league. Punish clumsy physical attack with a skillful, precision offensive counter-strike. Like so:

As for whether the ploy did anything for the Flames, I think it's irrelevant. The team won't win anything this year or next regardless of such shenanigans. I'd say it's the move of a club desperate for some modicum of respect in the face of sinking fortunes. Unfortunately, there is a law of diminishing returns when it comes to these sorts of stunts and the organization's long wander through the desert is going to far outlast whatever sort of benefit one might want to assign to a coaching-imposed donny brook (if any).

- Before we leave the topic, I submit this incident as another data point in my thesis that enforcers do more to incite, rather than deter, needless violence in the game.

- From my angle, the Matt Stajan signing is a good one. He has solid underlying numbers through most of his tenure in Calgary and he remains one of the best overall forwards on the club. I've mentioned several times since the rebuild began that it's a bad idea to simply purge any and all middle-tier veterans from the team with a hope that the entire roster can be built back up from scratch once the kids start finding their legs. Stajan will be a useful placeholder for a few years while younger guys figure things out - or until the team can attract a superior replacement.

In addition, Stajan's presence potentially dissuades the club from trying to seek a replacement in free agency come July. Buying talent from the UFA pool is an expensive and risky venture at the best of times, but for terrible teams in the middle of a rebuild with cap room, it's a veritable minefield. The Oilers were saved from numerous errors over many ill-fated summers by players simply choosing to play elsewhere despite the fact that Edmonton drove a dump truck full of money up to their house.

An average team has to overpay on July to land a noteworthy player. A terrible team usually has to do more than that. The resultant contract is almost always a mistake.

- Probably the only complaint about the Stajan deal is length. Ideally, it would be only about 3 years long, though it's hard to complain too loudly about an extra season at just over $3M per year. By that time, assuming 5% annual revenue growth, Stajan's deal won't even account for 4% of the Flames total cap budget (assuming they are still a cap ceiling team). If he falls off a cliff by 34, It's not a big deal.

Besides, the club had to throw some sort of bone to Stajan to get him to stick around. He went through a lot of crap during Brent Sutter's tenure here and he will likely go through a lot more (albeit of a different variety) through this next contract. A single-tacked on season isn't a terrible price to pay.

- Keep in mind how dreadfully thin Calgary's depth chart at center is. Backlund and Stajan are the only two actual NHL C's on this club. Colborne might be an NHLer, but it wouldn't surprise me if he's shifted to wing permanently since he mostly got eaten alive down the middle (and looks much more comfortable as a winger now). Of course, he might simply be a replacement level player who isn't even retained down the road tool.

The rest of the hopefuls: Corban Knight, Max Reinhart, Markus Granlund and Bill Arnold - are complete unknowns at this point and it will likely to take at least 3 years for any of them to make the club and usurp a player like Stajan. That's IF any of them prove to be NHLers.

- Related: a lot of folks are penciling Monahan into one of the top-2 C positions sooner rather than later, but the truth is we don't really know...

a.) if he'll ever be that good or,

b.) when he'll actually be capable of that assignment.

A lot of young players have had splashy starts to their careers only to settle into "okay at best" territory down the road. Exhibit A is Sam Gagner up north. He had a career high of 49 points as a tenager. Seven years later and he's still just a middle-rotation center who doesn't drive the offense or possession to any notable degree.

Monahan is a toolsy kid. His draft pedigree and position as the prospect to kick off the rebuild gives him organizational clout. But we still don't really know if he'll be a useful NHL player quite yet, let alone a top-six forward or star.

- Switching gears, I think the Flames have played a lot better recently since emerging from the post-Christmas drought, although they still can't seem to put together many wins. I think they stood toe-to-toe with two superior squads in VAN and SJS lately, for instance and were full value for the recent win over the Coyotes.

That said, it's kind of amazing how bad the Flames luck has been for the better part of a month now: if refs aren't blowing calls or disallowing legitimate Flame goals, opposition shots are ricocheting off the goalie's chest and blocker before somehow bouncing into the net...

 

Even if you reasonably assumed the Flames are so talent deficient that their percentages would trail the league mean legitimately this year (ie; not due to variance alone), it's hard to get past just how little affection the hockey gods have for this club currently.

- Of course, in the grand scheme of things that's actually good news for the team since the overarching goal for the next few seasons is to collect as much young talent from the draft as possible. It doesn't make it any less painful to accept, however.

- Finally, since I am usually accused of disregarding toughness/grinders, I should note that I've liked the strides Lance Bouma has made this year. He's never going to make his money as a sniper in the NHL, but he's a player who combines toughness and aggression with at least moderate levels of hockey sense, skating and skill. His underlying numbers this year are good given the fact that Hartley almost never starts him in the offensive zone. He had a number of plays at both ends of the ice last night in the win over Phoenix that speaks to his growing utility for the Flames.

Personal Stuff - This isn't good-bye

As some of you have noticed already, I stopped being the Nations Overlord and managing editor of FlamesNation at the start of January. After several years of making hockey writing and analysis my first priority, I had an opportunity to join Evans Hunt Group here in Calgary which I couldn't pass up. As a result, I regretfully had to step take a step back here.

I will still be contributing to FN here from time to time with pieces like this. I will also lurk in the background, helping out with editing and business development occasionally.

Of course, I will also continue to add pithy observations and glib remarks on twitter about the Flames and NHL as whole. If you're interested in what I'm doing outside of the hockey arena, check me out on Linkedin or or track me down at EH. I will also be active in helping out some of my family's local entrepreneurial endeavours, including Kidoodle (Uncle, Cousin, Father) and Wilgrip (brother). 

As for FN, I leave you in the capable hands of Mr. Ryan Pike. He's a lot more positively oriented than I am and has much more energy for the journalistic side of things. Im confident he will be able to keep developing quality content on daily basis for our great (but demanding) readership. 

I'd like to give eternal thanks to Wanye Gretz and the Nations ownership group who were willing to take a big chance and hire me on full time during a period when almost every other media entity was shedding salary. I learned a ton as the director of the network and got to work with a lot of intelligent and driven people including Jason Gregor, Jonathan Willis, Thomas Drance, Pat Steinberg, Robert Cleave, Cam Charron and many others. Not to mention the opportunity to cover two NHL entry drafts live.

Finally, thanks to all of the regular readers here and all those who have followed me since I began yelling into the abyss at my own humble blog way back in 2005. I never began this with any grand ambitions because, frankly, I never really considered it possible that anyone would pay me to write about hockey. It was - it is - a privilege, and it's only made possible because enough of you have the patience to hear me out from time-to-time.

Thanks again to everyone. Go Flames.

39d8109299a9795cb3b41a4e9b49d501
Former Nations Overlord. Current FN contributor and curmudgeon For questions, complaints, criticisms, etc contact Kent @ kent.wilson@gmail. Follow him on Twitter here.
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#2 mk
January 23 2014, 08:03AM
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Well Kent, your top quality work has always been appreciated - best of luck with EH!

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#3 Primo
January 23 2014, 08:29AM
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Thanks for all your outstanding contributions to FN Kent as I always looked forward to reading your articles of insight and intelligence! I wish you the very best in your future endeavours and look forward to the new leadership that will be provided by Ryan.

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#5 Lordmork
January 23 2014, 09:38AM
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Thanks for your hard work, Kent, and good luck in the future!

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#6 piscera.infada
January 23 2014, 08:06AM
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'Grats on the new gig there big guy. It's been a slice, thanks for all your work.

I agree on Bouma, grinder or not, the guy's a player.

With Monahan, I get the need to be a britches-shrinker with a regard to expectations (and I agree with you). But the kid is a player. Obviously, he's begun to even things out (as was mentioned in the post game blog), but he's been doing a lot of "little things" right lately - you can actively see the strides he's making as a 19 year old in the NHL. It seems like every game (save for the potentially injured streak), he gets better. No, he won't be a world beater next year, he won't put up 100 points. That said, you can see the tools on a consistent enough basis, that you don't need to talk about prospective toolsy-ness (whatever that is). Of course, there's always regression, but his pedigree at this point isn't solely based on offensive output (as it usually is with prospects). Just how I see it though.

In addition, that Colborne-Monahan-Galiardi line has been great. I've really liked the speed and compete they bring. Galiardi seems to have found his game - I think he's looked pretty good the last few games.

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#7 otto
January 23 2014, 08:09AM
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Good read Kent.It's been a long time but I just had to log in to wish you the best of luck in your future endeavours.

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#8 jeremywilhelm
January 23 2014, 08:57AM
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Adios Kent, we'll catch a beer in CGY one time when I'm back.

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#9 Bean-counting cowboy
January 23 2014, 09:31AM
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Hope we keep hearing from you Kent! I found myself over the years forming opinions about various topics and then checking FN because inevitably I would ask myself "I wonder what Kent thinks". This is because I always value your insight and the intellectual responses to the burning hockey issues of the day, and more importantly, the Flames.

Best of luck!

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#11 icedawg_42
January 23 2014, 10:42AM
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It's ironic that its your last article here at FN, and the first time I've ever really disagreed with any of your wisdom.

"I'd say it's the move of a club desperate for some modicum of respect in the face of sinking fortunes."

I don't think that this was a 'stunt' per se - that is to say, I don't believe that Hartley did it for anyone's entertainment or benefit. I think he was seeing his team begin to whimper and settle softly into the good night. I think this was meant to give the team some sense of brotherhood and of defending each other. I know from experience that nothing makes a group of guys feel more like brothers than having to get into it with no one else at your back. I think that's a culture they're trying to brew here - that you play for each other and the emblem on your chest rather than playing for the highlight reel and your stats like a certain group of sissies to the North. Just my opinion, but I think there was more to it than just a stunt. Maybe i'm just hoping that's the case, cause I'm baffled by most of what Hartley does, and this is the first time I found myself finding a measure of respect for him.

Lastly, you will be missed around these parts! We can liken this to a team trading away its franchise player. No slight to the other excellent writers in these parts, but since day 1 you've been the heart and soul of the site. Congrats and best of luck!

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#12 Baalzamon
January 23 2014, 12:32PM
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The Wheel weaves as the Wheel wills, and our lives are but threads woven into the pattern.

Or... good luck. Yes, that's what I meant.

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#13 Purple Hazze
January 23 2014, 12:56PM
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All the best with the new gig Kent!

In regards to the comments about keeping around some of our vets to mentor and shelter the youth during the re-build. I agree with this point, however I also see a lot of ppl saying how this is where Edmonton went wrong and they traded everyone off. Although I don't follow the Oilers that closely, I have to ask did they really do that? They kept Hemskey and Horcoff around for that very purpose, wouldn't that be the equivalent of us keeping Stajan and Cammi/Stempniak?

What key pieces did they jettison that really hurt their rebuild? I wouldn't include Glenx in that list because I wouldn't consider him to have been a veteran on the team when they let him go.

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#14 Bean-counting cowboy
January 23 2014, 01:55PM
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Unrelated: A TSN headline today caught my attention and had me totally confused for a few seconds, "Gillies, Poirer win ice dance silver at Four Continents". Can't stop thinkin Flames!

Related: Another compliment to Kent and FN is in order: I have always appreciated the "mom over the shoulder" mentality at Flames Nation. Sometimes the conversation digresses but for the most part the conversation is intellectual and relatively "professional" as compared to most hockey boards.

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#15 loudogYYC
January 23 2014, 03:15PM
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@Kent Wilson

Yesterday I was talking with a table full of Flames fans at a pub for happy hour; they all seemed pretty pissed about the Stajan signing and most were big fans of McGrattan. I must say I get the same reaction in section 218 where my part time seats are too.

I really really appreciate this site and the work you and the boys have put into it, Kent. Without FN, hockey talk just wouldn't be as fun.

Congrats on the EH gig and best of luck!

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#16 matsthomassen
January 23 2014, 08:58AM
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COngratulations Kent, and best of luck with the new gig! You started a great thing here.

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#17 EducatedHockeyFan
January 23 2014, 09:09AM
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Monahan is averaging 2.75 shots/game in his last 8 games. What is a good shot total to have at this point in his short career?

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#18 piscera.infada
January 23 2014, 09:16AM
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@EducatedHockeyFan

The high-end scorers, from the brief amount of research I was able to do, shoot around 3.5-4 shots per game (those are guys like Perry, Tavares, Hall, Marleau, etc.). Obviously Ovechkin is averaging 5.5 per game, but that guy shoots from every where.

I'd say 2.75 is great, considering the strength isn't fully there yet. But if you're looking for a very pointed and assured answer, I can't give you one. As much as I can surmise though, that's pretty good - more than I would have thought too.

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#19 T&A4Flames
January 23 2014, 09:17AM
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Thanks for all you've done Kent. I love this website. It enhances my love for the game. Good luck to you.

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#20 Burnward
January 23 2014, 09:23AM
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Are you working for Mission Impossible?

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#21 SeanCharles
January 23 2014, 09:27AM
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Congrats Kent! I know you will be around enough, I hope, to add your two cents so we shouldn't miss you too much.

I always appreciated your responses whenever I addressed you directly. Thanks for that...

In saying that I must say I agree we need to temper expectations with youngsters. We are seeing, with Sven especially, you need to be patient and not put the world on their shoulders too early.

But with Monahan I can't help but be excited. He does so many little things right, he is usually always in proper position and he is a big centerman that is getting better on faceoffs. He is 19 and I have no doubt he will settle in as one of the top players drafted in '13, he is already looking so.

My point is I don't doubt he will be a top 6 player in this league. We are so lucky to have him and you know I actually think we deserve it with the lack of center depth here over the last too many years too count... We hit a home run with him and I am fine celebrating it. He is too smart and hard working to not cotinue to develop.

When he was 16/17 people were saying he thinks like an NHLer. He will develop into best centerman we have had here in decades, I have no doubt.

I like the have Backlund and Monahan as our youthful backbone down the middle and think our past weakness will end up becoming our strength.

We might actually build properly this time. No offense to my fav Flame, Iggy, but you don't build around a RWer.

Thanks again Kent!

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#22 EducatedHockeyFan
January 23 2014, 09:37AM
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@piscera.infada

Thannks!

Over the whole season however, Monahair is averaging 1.79 shots/game but it's good to see its trending upward.

MacKinnon is averaging 2.87 on the season. I think that is pretty impressive for an 18 year old yuppie. Two different types of players of course.

Sure is exciting to see the youth excelling these days isn't it?

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#23 piscera.infada
January 23 2014, 09:39AM
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@SeanCharles

I don't entirely disagree with you, but if there's one thing Monahan needs to work on it's defensive positioning. I know I'll probably be skewered for saying this, but the team has been 'covering' for him in the D-zone all season (he's slowly being weened off of that), that's one of the reasons Colborne plays on that line. Watch the next game, when the cycle starts for the other team in the D-zone, Monahan usually cycles to the 'winger coverage' and Colborne bounces inside to cover the 'traditional centre coverage'. That said, it's just because he's a very young player. You don't want him getting hung out to dry, but it's still the one (albeit, small) knock I have on his game.

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#24 BurningSensation
January 23 2014, 09:41AM
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http://youtu.be/umDr0mPuyQc

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#26 icedawg_42
January 23 2014, 11:16AM
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Kent Wilson wrote:

I don't know. We could maybe build that narrative if guys like Giordano and Backlund had thrown down with Kesler and company because Kassian tree to goon somebody, but does an orchestrated enforcer melee really instil a lasting sense of brotherhood for the guys on the bench who aren't paid to fight?

Im dubious.

Makes sense - but the mood does tend to be infectious on the bench...perhaps a sense of something like 'patriotism'

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#27 MWflames
January 23 2014, 11:24AM
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I came to Edmonton to attend university a little over 4 years ago, and even as an avid flames fan in high school, I was to busy and distracted to keep up with hockey and more importantly the flames (apparently hockey really does die here). It was when I found this site that my interests in the flames were renewed because of valuable, intelligent and thorough coverage of the Flames.

Best of luck Kent.

Also, completely agree on Monahan. He cannot be pencilled into a top 6 position until he earns it. Although he has been mostly very promising this year, he still has a ways to go before he should be facing top 6 competition regularly.

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#28 KetchupKid
January 23 2014, 11:32AM
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Sad to hear you're moving on to bigger and better Kent. Your articles have been spot on and I'll keep an eye out for anything you write in the future.

With regards to the brawl: I think it was a stunt but it was an effective one. Look at the players that were ejected from the game. If CGY had won that game (and they damn near did), it would have been a coup for the coaching staff IMO. Of course it's only one stupid game in a terribad season, but I'd argue that the occassional stolen win against a good team is worth more for morale than the face-punching.

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#29 Jibmeister
January 23 2014, 11:46AM
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Thanks for everything Kent!

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#30 Jeff In Lethbridge
January 23 2014, 11:57AM
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Best wishes Kent... hoping for much success for you!

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#31 beloch
January 23 2014, 12:25PM
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Thanks for your work on this site Kent. My hockey mania has grown leaps and bounds ever since I started following FN. I like to think this is because this blog makes the stats interesting and has some pretty good discussion going on. It's actually reached the point where I've started lacing up again! I wish you the best of luck in your new job!

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#32 Greg
January 23 2014, 01:05PM
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Regarding the Stajan contract, I think it's a decent move as well.

The thing that surprises me though is how everyone still keeps assuming a raising cap and ignoring the impact of the CDN dollar decline. The Canadian teams are over 1/3 of league revenue, and just took a 10% revenue hit.

That $5.2 billion dollar Rogers deal? It's now worth only $4.6 billion USD. If the dollar drops back into the 80 cent range, I think you could even see the cap come down.

Stajan' contract won't matter much either way, but some teams are gonna really really regret their overpays this year when they finally see the impact of the dollar change next year.

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#33 Greg
January 23 2014, 01:05PM
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Oh and congrats Kent! Good luck with the new chapter!

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#34 Captain Ron
January 23 2014, 01:28PM
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Congrats Kent on on moving forward with your career. I initially came to this site at the urging of Pat Steinburg on the overtime show after Flames games. Your statistical look at the game isn't necessarily my thing but you presented me with an insight that I had not previously considered. Whether or not I agreed or disagreed with your articles I did generally find them interesting and will miss you as a regular contributor to this site. All the best to you in the future.

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#35 Ryan Pike
January 23 2014, 03:16PM
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With the bloodless coup roughly three weeks old, I too would like to chime in with my fondness, admiration and congratulations towards Kent. I was flattered and excited when he asked me to talk the reins, and I'm tremendously glad he's sticking around (albeit in a diminished capacity) to add his unique insights and ensure I don't burn the place down.

Both #fancystats and web-based hockey journalism have leaped forward in acceptance over the past few years, and with guys like Kent at the fore of that movement, it's no wonder.

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#36 sb
January 23 2014, 03:21PM
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Best to you Kent on your future move. I enjoyed your point of view of each game and players outputs.

As far as Stajan's contract I think it was a good one. Some of us had concerns about the length (4years), but last night Eric Francis reported that his final year was reduced to make Stajan attractive to trade in his third year if required.

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#37 febreze
January 23 2014, 04:02PM
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Kent.Wilson.Good.Luck.

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#38 Brian Costello
January 23 2014, 04:41PM
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Kent, your voice of reason and well-crafted yarns will be missed at this fine site. Kick butt at EH, but don't forget to write.

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#39 BurningSensation
January 23 2014, 05:21PM
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All the best with your new gig Kent!

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#40 44stampede
January 23 2014, 06:59PM
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I can honestly say that I will really miss your input Kent. For the last several years I have looked forward to hearing about your take on the Flames moves and the organization in general. Always a balanced analysis. You have talked me off the ledge on a number of things Flames related through the years. I have used your info on more than one occasion to fool people into thinking I knew more than I did :) Thanks for everything.

I am sure you will be quite successful in your endeavors.

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#41 SmellOfVictory
January 23 2014, 07:49PM
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Partial farewell, KW. You're one of the best hockey writers/analysts kicking around.

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#42 TRAV
January 23 2014, 08:33PM
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You have changed the way that I view and analyze hockey. Thanks for your work here and I hope that you continue to add information/opinions as your time permits. I especially enjoy your draft analysis.

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#44 ChinookArch
January 23 2014, 09:45PM
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Kent, I just found out now about your stepping back.

I wanted to say thank you for all efforts over the last few years. I'm certain I've read mostly everything you've written since discovering FN and enjoyed your insights and thoughts on the game.

All the best with your future endeavours, and talk to you soon around here.

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#45 ChinookArch
January 23 2014, 10:56PM
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Double post.

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#46 FlamesRule
January 24 2014, 12:15AM
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Kent, your posts have always stimulated some of the best discussions on this site - sorry to see you'll be contributing less in the future.

Ryan, you'll need to wear 3 pairs of socks for the next little while...

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