Everything Lasts Forever: Riding the PDO Pony

Ryan Pike
December 05 2014 01:30PM

1280px-Shetland_Pony_on_Belstone_Common,_Dartmoor

"I watched two-thirds of the MC Hammer Behind the Music, and if there's one thing I learned, it's that money never runs out!"
-Professor Scudwerth, Clone High, on sustainability.

Well, gang, they did it again.

The Calgary Flames managed their sixth come-from-behind third period win last night with a 4-3 OT win over the Colorado Avalanche. At this point, 27 games into this season, the Flames have banked a lot of points and won games in dramatic fashion.

The two overriding questions now are:

  1. Can they keep this up?
  2. Can they make the playoffs?

CAN THEY KEEP THIS UP?

This one's a reasonably simple answer: probably not.

If the Flames played infinity games and talent wasn't a factor (e.g., it was evenly distributed), you'd expect everyone's PDO to be 100. Granted, they don't play infinity games and talent isn't evenly distributed, so the big questions are "When is the correction coming?" and "How severe is it going to be?"

Corsi and, to a larger extent, Corsi Close are our main analytics that have proven to have much predictive value - in the sense that you can guesstimate with some degree of accuracy how well a team will do points-wise based upon their performance.

In Corsi terms, the Flames are 29th in the entire NHL at Corsi - 43.5% - with only Buffalo being worse. To put this in real terms, they are SIX AND A HALF PERCENT WORSE than the league's average teams. That's pretty damn awful. Their PDO right now is second in the league - 102.1. If you buy into the argument that talented teams are more resistant to PDO corrections - their talent in puck possession gives them more ability to work through things and makes them less prone to wacky corrections - then the fact that Calgary is downright lousy at puck possession should be worrisome.

In Corsi Close terms, the Flames do slightly better - 45.0% - with Buffalo, Colorado and Columbus being worse. Relative to the league's middle teams, they're five percent worse - which is still bad. Their PDO in these situations is actually only 98.8 - Edmonton's is a lousy 96.9, the poor saps.

In other words, the underlyings suggest that the Flames should be (a) worse overall but (b) slightly better in close situations.

CAN THEY MAKE THE PLAYOFFS?

Based on last season's Corsi Close numbers, I looked at the metric's predictive value and developed a formula over at the Hockey Writers after running the season's numbers. (The R-squared is 0.34, which is fairly decent but not great; a LOT of the variation in team points is left unexplained.)

Anyhow, here's the equation:

Points = (234.862987 x Corsi Close % as a decimal [e.g., 0.450 for Calgary]) - 25.229475

Based on their 45.0 Corsi Close %, you would expect the Flames to earn roughly 80.5 points for a full season (or about 49.1% of all available points). They've earned 66.7% of available points so far, so there's a pretty big gulf between expectations and reality. Welcome to professional sports.

There are 55 games left and 110 possible points on the table going forward. At a 49.1% clip - which is what the underlyings suggest the Flames should be at - they earn 54 points and go just a shade under .500. Combined with the 36 points they have in the bank, you're looking at about 90 points - presuming that the Flames (a) correct immediately and consistently going forward and (b) correct specifically to that level.

Dallas made the playoffs with 91 points last season, so it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility that the Flames could make the playoffs even if the team's luck runs dry and they perform closer to their Corsi Close level than to the lofty levels they have been.

SUM IT UP

Back to the questions!

  1. Can they keep this up?
    The underlyings suggest not, but there are always a handful of teams per year that outperform what their metrics suggest (Colorado last year is a prime example).
  2. Can they make the playoffs?
    Based on the points they've banked and what the underlyings metrics suggest they should be earning going forward, right now they're on the bubble, but it's beginning to enter the realm of possibility.

Presuming that everyone in the West performs as their Corsi Close suggests they should for the remainder of their games, here's the standings:

Screen Shot 2014-12-05 at 11.33.20 AM

51a8cdc527ce12d222fdc583f3cf4368
Ryan Pike has covered the Calgary Flames since 2010. He's Senior Contributing Editor at FlamesNation, a Senior Writer covering the Flames and the NHL Draft for The Hockey Writers, and a correspondent for the Fischler Report. He's just trying to capture the spirit of the thing.
Avatar
#51 Skuehler
December 05 2014, 11:14PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
15
props

Let's bookmark this article and refer back at the end of the season. Let's measure how accurate the stats were in predicting.

Avatar
#52 MoneyPuck
December 06 2014, 12:38AM
Trash it!
7
trashes
Props
12
props

Advanced stats can suck my left ... toe. GO FLAMES!

Avatar
#53 Mental
December 06 2014, 01:22AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
9
props

If the playoffs were today, we'd be against Vancouver. Oh the hatred that would flow!

http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20142015&type=PLA

Carry on.

Avatar
#54 Loxeus
December 06 2014, 02:44AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
5
props
mattyc wrote:

There's much more rigorous ways of measuring error than just eyeballing it and giving a blanket 10% is just wrong statistically. IMO it's just wrong to claim there isn't a significant difference in a 40 and 50% cf% team given that tracking shots isn't rocket science.

Fair enough. Keep in mind though that 40% is stretching out a bit further than I was referring to. I was talking a 10% interval around the expected value of 50% for either team (which I think is a fair expectation, given the mentioned uncertainty). This would be 10% of 50% (5% in each direction, giving 45 - 55%, not 40 - 60%). I would be much more convinced by the numbers if the spread was actually 40 - 60%. However, the fact that you rarely see any team dip to 40% for long stretches just supports my argument.

You're right, tracking shots isn't science. I'm not trying to make it into one... I didn't invent advanced stats.

Avatar
#55 MoneyPuck
December 06 2014, 03:01AM
Trash it!
13
trashes
Props
20
props

Seems like you need to be a math wizz just to be a flames fan on this site. Is that all you ever talk about? The flames are winning and are fun to watch and all you guys here suck the fun out of it.

Avatar
#56 Johnny Goooooooaldreau
December 06 2014, 03:06AM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Props
1
props

Can I post

Avatar
#57 Johnny Goooooooaldreau
December 06 2014, 03:06AM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Props
1
props

Woohoo

Avatar
#58 Johnny Goooooooaldreau
December 06 2014, 03:40AM
Trash it!
13
trashes
Props
19
props

Posting from my phone as I was banned, but now I'm back. Thanks Bagged Milk.

I think the point that needs to be made in regards to the advanced stat "revolution" in hockey is that hockey is NOT Baseball. Math equations are based on formulas, most of those formulas require a "constant" ie. the C in E=mC2. Baseball has several constants: The mound is ALWAYS 60'6" from home plate The bases are ALWAYS 90' apart The players are positioned roughly the same for every pitch (regardless of the size and shape of the ball park the out fielders are still usually in the same position at the pitch of the ball). These are the reasons that advanced stats work so well for Baseball.

Now imagine if you will that there is a runner on first and the batter hits the ball toward the 2nd baseman and before the ball gets to him the runner purposely deflects the ball past him into right field. That is not a legal play in baseball, it is in hockey though. Now imagine that the count is full, the pitcher pitches and the runner on first sprints in front of the pitch, blocking what would have been a strike, but because it never crosses the plate it is called a ball. This doesn't happen of course because it is against the rules. This is why Baseball is MEASURABLE.

It is also why hockey is NOT measurable, hockey is chaos, by it's very definition chaos is not measurable.

Stop it please. The Flames are winning because they are in "playoff" mode. They are doing the one percenters and capitalizing on the opportunities that teams in regular season mode are making. They will probably regress, but it won't be to do with PDO or Corsica it will be because other teams will start to ramp it up.

Avatar
#59 Flames15
December 06 2014, 04:10AM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Props
13
props

The Flames will obviously regress. Winning 8 of 10 is nearly impossible for many teams in the league. To what extent will they regress remains a question. .500 hockey gives this team a chance to compete for a playoff spot. Something tells me, with the current goaltending, they may be able to finish a little over .500, at least.

Even if this whole season was "lucky", unless the Flames "go for it", I don't see how this harms the team. To suggest Calgary is as poor as BUF based on corsi numbers is lame IMO. I mean, have you seen BUF play!?

This whole argument of projections made via corsi/PDO becomes invalid once you realize it projects the Jets to make the playoffs and the Kings to not.

Avatar
#60 Koolmoedee
December 06 2014, 05:26AM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Props
21
props

I feel like people are a little over-infatuated with Corsi and some of the newer stats, to the point of overlooking their shortcomings.

Corsi is one number, and it's a very useful one. However, anybody who has done basic mathematical modelling will know that simple models have their strengths and their weaknesses. Simple models can more readily be applied broadly, but there are instances where they fail miserably because they don't account for all the relevant variables.

For example, there are models that predict point production of NHL players based on their junior statistics. Most of the time, these are useful models. But every now and then you run into a Milan Lucic or a Rob Schremp who wildly defies those predictions. These models don't make Lucic any more likely to lose his scoring abilities nor Schremp any more likely to emerge as a scoring star. There is something the models missed.

One issue I have with Corsi is that it doesn't account for shot blocks. The Flames lead the league in shot blocks. They are a respectable 12th in the league in actual shots allowed per 60 minutes. Obviously it would be better if the Flames were shooting the puck instead of blocking shots, but shot blocks prevent goals none the less.

There are countless other factors that Corsi overlooks.

PDO approaches uselessness in many situations. The Oilers don't have a low PDO because they are unlucky. They have a low PDO because their goalies are discarded backups, they lack NHL centers, and their defence serves up Grade A chances like they're hot gravy on turkey.

The Flames are winning. They could improve their Corsi by shooting at more shin pads and lower their PDO by not trying to make saves. They'd lose more, but at least the stats guys would be happy.

Avatar
#61 coachedpotatoe
December 06 2014, 07:10AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
9
props

For a long time I was star struck by the Oilers Big 3, RNH(4th season)Hall(5th season) and Eberle(5th season) but not any more. I would without a doubt take Monahan over RNH, Johnny over Eberle, the only one who we currently have no young guy that has surpassed him is Hall. The excuses made for these guys because they are young drives me nuts, both Hall and Eberle are now in their 5th NHL season should they not know what it takes, RNH is in his 4th seasonn heck even yak is in his 3rd season; I'm sorry but saying they are young just does not sell any more. Hall/RNH/Eberle are supposed to offensive machines yet Hudler, Johnny, and Monahan all have more points than they do, not to mention 3 defensemen with more points. Nope from now on I won't be envious, I like the skill level we have and are adding.

Avatar
#62 Primo
December 06 2014, 07:23AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
3
props
coachedpotatoe wrote:

For a long time I was star struck by the Oilers Big 3, RNH(4th season)Hall(5th season) and Eberle(5th season) but not any more. I would without a doubt take Monahan over RNH, Johnny over Eberle, the only one who we currently have no young guy that has surpassed him is Hall. The excuses made for these guys because they are young drives me nuts, both Hall and Eberle are now in their 5th NHL season should they not know what it takes, RNH is in his 4th seasonn heck even yak is in his 3rd season; I'm sorry but saying they are young just does not sell any more. Hall/RNH/Eberle are supposed to offensive machines yet Hudler, Johnny, and Monahan all have more points than they do, not to mention 3 defensemen with more points. Nope from now on I won't be envious, I like the skill level we have and are adding.

Agree. Although the Oilers are going to land one of the 'sensationals' in the upcoming draft both Bennett and Poirier will help ease the pain! As well Monahan is turning out to be the best player in that 2013 draft.

Avatar
#63 slapshot444
December 06 2014, 07:41AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
8
props

Maybe we just need to enjoy the ride and not wonder so much on the why? Anyone notice that up the road where the world is on fire the articles on Oilers Nation are getting hundreds of posts vs the Flames Nation dozens' of posts? Could it be becaause we are too busy with our jaws on the ground, hands in the air and our feet doing a tap dance win each successive win not really believing what is unfolding. A quote from Grats "its the tightest room I've ever seen" Ok cool, that said, where is the corsi for a tight room?

Go Flames Go

Avatar
#64 TRAV
December 06 2014, 07:44AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
17
props
MoneyPuck wrote:

Seems like you need to be a math wizz just to be a flames fan on this site. Is that all you ever talk about? The flames are winning and are fun to watch and all you guys here suck the fun out of it.

I am a huge Flames fan and have been loving this run. This is the most exciting hockey I have seen in this city in a very long time. I love the style of play and the prominent role of our rookies who I have watched and discussed here on this site. And i really enjoy looking at their accomplishments through a different set of filters. I read the sun, herald etc and get my fill of stories about player progress, work ethic etc. I love reading those stories and I love thinking about the team from another perspective. I feel like I am a better informed more knowledgeable fan because of the ideas that I have learned about here. For instance this site was praising Brodie as a player to watch when he was in the minors. I also was listening to the morning show guys slam Backlund and people here kept looking beyond his point production and then I looked for other qualities and sure enough I started to see his value also. I think that it is the sign of an intelligent fan to read,listen and learn and then to come up with their own conclusions. In no way do I take everything I read here as gospel. In fact I have challenged those that draw conclusions without actually seeing players and judging them just on stats. (Note: not sure I am going to end up being right about Kanzig). My point is conversation about different perspectives is actually why I come here. Rather than suck the fun out of it, it makes my fan experience way more fun. Don't always agree but enjoy reading the perspective. Go Flames Go! What an amazing time to be a fan!

Avatar
#65 ChinookArchYYC
December 06 2014, 08:27AM
Trash it!
3
trashes
Props
11
props
MoneyPuck wrote:

Seems like you need to be a math wizz just to be a flames fan on this site. Is that all you ever talk about? The flames are winning and are fun to watch and all you guys here suck the fun out of it.

Please don't take any offense to this, but this site is advanced stats centric. I hear this complaint a lot (especially lately), but it's like going to zoo and complaining that the animals are not free to roam around.

Avatar
#66 Kenta
December 06 2014, 08:46AM
Trash it!
14
trashes
Props
8
props
slapshot444 wrote:

Maybe we just need to enjoy the ride and not wonder so much on the why? Anyone notice that up the road where the world is on fire the articles on Oilers Nation are getting hundreds of posts vs the Flames Nation dozens' of posts? Could it be becaause we are too busy with our jaws on the ground, hands in the air and our feet doing a tap dance win each successive win not really believing what is unfolding. A quote from Grats "its the tightest room I've ever seen" Ok cool, that said, where is the corsi for a tight room?

Go Flames Go

The fewer number of posts on Flamesnation probably also reflects the subpar quality of articles on Flamesnation recently (especially since Pike took over from Kent). Oilersnation has more regular contributors and much better content.

I also agree way too much nerdy stats content on Flamesnation recently. A shame guys who probably can't play the game with thick glasses and big calculators are finding ways to overanalyse and needlessly nit pick such a beautiful, elegant game. Advanced stats will only take you so far. The rest is common sense and experience which cannot be replaced by a math formula.

Avatar
#67 Craig
December 06 2014, 09:39AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
3
props

There's a possibility the regression won't be nearly as bad as we think with one factor in consideration. Mikael Backlund is a beast. His return will likely spike our Corsi number a few points. What it'll do is allow him to take on the heavy's again, while Monohan can shift down a grade in QOC. Since Monohan has actually been lighting it up against better competition he should take off with slightly easier assignments.

It may not be for a few months but his return will likely be in the midst of regression, and hopefully will pull things back up a bit.

Avatar
#68 Kevin R
December 06 2014, 09:43AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
5
props
TRAV wrote:

I am a huge Flames fan and have been loving this run. This is the most exciting hockey I have seen in this city in a very long time. I love the style of play and the prominent role of our rookies who I have watched and discussed here on this site. And i really enjoy looking at their accomplishments through a different set of filters. I read the sun, herald etc and get my fill of stories about player progress, work ethic etc. I love reading those stories and I love thinking about the team from another perspective. I feel like I am a better informed more knowledgeable fan because of the ideas that I have learned about here. For instance this site was praising Brodie as a player to watch when he was in the minors. I also was listening to the morning show guys slam Backlund and people here kept looking beyond his point production and then I looked for other qualities and sure enough I started to see his value also. I think that it is the sign of an intelligent fan to read,listen and learn and then to come up with their own conclusions. In no way do I take everything I read here as gospel. In fact I have challenged those that draw conclusions without actually seeing players and judging them just on stats. (Note: not sure I am going to end up being right about Kanzig). My point is conversation about different perspectives is actually why I come here. Rather than suck the fun out of it, it makes my fan experience way more fun. Don't always agree but enjoy reading the perspective. Go Flames Go! What an amazing time to be a fan!

Great post & description of a war between some in the media that don't believe in Stats versus the Stats advocates. Both have valid points & both have it's shortcomings. But the battle rages through the MSM. So as just a rabid fan who enjoys listening & reading all perspectives about their favourite team & favourite players, we get caught in the middle. Ever watch The Undefeated? John Wayne's quote "Looks like we got ourselves caught in the middle of someone else's war" Well, take the best out of both & enjoy the ride because there are no stats & no eye test to explain what is happening or how long it will last. You just have to be there!

Avatar
#69 hotoil
December 06 2014, 09:55AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
7
props

The poor Oilers held a "media availability" conference with GM Craig Mac Tavish to say nothing about the State of Affaires. It was sad! He forgot to make a special request to all Oiler fans near and far. All such fans are to obtain paper bags to wear proudly for home games or watching tv or listening to games on the radio.There may be a bag shortage. Maybe some Flame supporters can be generous by collecting bags to ship to the Oilers? The paper must be of excellent quality in order to last a number of years. Thankyou for your efforts. "Media Availability" Meetings in Edmonton are so relevant. This is a bit of a snobbish Way to Describe a meeting.

Avatar
#70 the-wolf
December 06 2014, 10:40AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
9
props
MoneyPuck wrote:

Seems like you need to be a math wizz just to be a flames fan on this site. Is that all you ever talk about? The flames are winning and are fun to watch and all you guys here suck the fun out of it.

Yet, your moniker is "MoneyPuck." Think about that.

Avatar
#71 BurningSensation
December 06 2014, 10:51AM
Trash it!
5
trashes
Props
6
props
MoneyPuck wrote:

Seems like you need to be a math wizz just to be a flames fan on this site. Is that all you ever talk about? The flames are winning and are fun to watch and all you guys here suck the fun out of it.

And you call yourself 'MoneyPuck'?

There are lots of Flames sites you can go to to discuss how amazing-balls the team is without ever having to read a single stat.

If you are here it is because you are looking for something more than just the cheap boosterism of fans and cheerleaders.

Learn some math. It is good for you.

Avatar
#72 Burnward
December 06 2014, 10:51AM
Trash it!
4
trashes
Props
2
props

Snake oil.

Avatar
#73 Schenker
December 06 2014, 10:58AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
5
props

Having the top defensive pairing in the leauge in Brodano playing just about 25 minutes a night, having two decent goalie s, and having speedy hard working forwards is why Calgary is doing well. Screw the fancy stats!! Go Flames go!!

Avatar
#74 BurningSensation
December 06 2014, 11:10AM
Trash it!
6
trashes
Props
9
props
Kenta wrote:

The fewer number of posts on Flamesnation probably also reflects the subpar quality of articles on Flamesnation recently (especially since Pike took over from Kent). Oilersnation has more regular contributors and much better content.

I also agree way too much nerdy stats content on Flamesnation recently. A shame guys who probably can't play the game with thick glasses and big calculators are finding ways to overanalyse and needlessly nit pick such a beautiful, elegant game. Advanced stats will only take you so far. The rest is common sense and experience which cannot be replaced by a math formula.

This is wrong in just about every way possible.

If you don't want a discussion around a statistical analysis of the Fames, why are you here?

Avatar
#75 Chambers
December 06 2014, 11:56AM
Trash it!
4
trashes
Props
6
props
Kenta wrote:

The fewer number of posts on Flamesnation probably also reflects the subpar quality of articles on Flamesnation recently (especially since Pike took over from Kent). Oilersnation has more regular contributors and much better content.

I also agree way too much nerdy stats content on Flamesnation recently. A shame guys who probably can't play the game with thick glasses and big calculators are finding ways to overanalyse and needlessly nit pick such a beautiful, elegant game. Advanced stats will only take you so far. The rest is common sense and experience which cannot be replaced by a math formula.

Pike is a very effective writer as was Kent. I personally enjoy his work as well as the other writers on FN. There depth of knowledge is outstanding...If you feel Oilernation has better quality contributors perhaps you should go over there as they will appreciate you more......bye bye....

Avatar
#76 Burnward
December 06 2014, 12:04PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Props
7
props

@Chambers

Agreed. That's their mandate.

Personally don't agree with everything, but certainly appreciate the effort.

Interesting evolution in "fancy stats" underway. Watching it from the front row is a good place to be.

Avatar
#77 chillout
December 06 2014, 12:06PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
15
props

Anyone want to see just how stupid and misguided lambert is go to oilers nation. That guy is a complete moron and wouldn't know fun hockey if it hit him in the face.......but the corsi says......shut it lambert and watch the damn game!

Avatar
#78 Jeff In Lethbridge
December 06 2014, 12:53PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
7
props
Kenta wrote:

The fewer number of posts on Flamesnation probably also reflects the subpar quality of articles on Flamesnation recently (especially since Pike took over from Kent). Oilersnation has more regular contributors and much better content.

I also agree way too much nerdy stats content on Flamesnation recently. A shame guys who probably can't play the game with thick glasses and big calculators are finding ways to overanalyse and needlessly nit pick such a beautiful, elegant game. Advanced stats will only take you so far. The rest is common sense and experience which cannot be replaced by a math formula.

hahaha,

Oiler fans have now resorted to telling us their blogs are better then ours and ours suck!

hahaha that is just too rich!!!!

Avatar
#79 Jeff In Lethbridge
December 06 2014, 01:15PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Props
8
props
chillout wrote:

Anyone want to see just how stupid and misguided lambert is go to oilers nation. That guy is a complete moron and wouldn't know fun hockey if it hit him in the face.......but the corsi says......shut it lambert and watch the damn game!

I didn't understand all the vitriol directed towards Lambert for quite a while, then slowly I too started becoming increasingly annoyed by his negative tone.

And like you say, his nonsensical buttkissing on ON is just plain odd. Even the Oiler fans are disgusted by it.

I would have no issues if he was moved out of FN.

Avatar
#80 Burnward
December 06 2014, 01:23PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Props
5
props

@Jeff In Lethbridge

Ahhhh, just take it for what it's worth. His whole thing is to drive hits and discussion, truth be dammed. He's carved out a great career for himself. Can't be easy being the "idiot" of the hockey world.

Avatar
#81 Kevin R
December 06 2014, 01:54PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
11
props
chillout wrote:

Anyone want to see just how stupid and misguided lambert is go to oilers nation. That guy is a complete moron and wouldn't know fun hockey if it hit him in the face.......but the corsi says......shut it lambert and watch the damn game!

I thought Lambert was a Flames Fan(despite his trolling articles) as he regularly writes for FN? That article he posted on ON, our most bitter rival, is disgusting on so many levels. He is dead to me. Ryan please don't invite him back to post on Flames Nation. He can write & get trashed on ON as he convinces them how great their current Management is because he can advocate everything they are doing or not doing to get a good draft pick. He can GF himself.

Avatar
#82 BurningSensation
December 06 2014, 02:03PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Props
5
props
Burnward wrote:

Ahhhh, just take it for what it's worth. His whole thing is to drive hits and discussion, truth be dammed. He's carved out a great career for himself. Can't be easy being the "idiot" of the hockey world.

Lambert is the Bizzaro blogger version of Glenn Healy.

Avatar
#83 piscera.infada
December 06 2014, 02:08PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
12
props
BurningSensation wrote:

Lambert is the Bizzaro blogger version of Glenn Healy.

I prefer to think of Lambert as Eric Francis with a beard.

Avatar
#84 Bean-counting cowboy
December 06 2014, 02:34PM
Trash it!
2
trashes
Props
10
props

Yep. Several things in that article that told me he should just stop writing blogs about hockey:

- Flames hockey is boring to watch (2nd most goals in the league, come from behind victories, fast intense hockey)

- Oilers rebuild is going better cuz that management group "gets it"

- Flames management will screw it up by re-signing Giordano (arguably the best leader in the NHL)

Ryan, Kent, someone, anyone, can we get a FN poll on the right hand side as to whether or not Lambert can continue employment here?

I get the "don't like it, don't read it" argument, but this dude is polluting your brand and may be turning people off the advanced stats push.

Avatar
#85 Burnward
December 06 2014, 02:37PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
4
props

@Bean-counting cowboy

If I were an advanced stats guy, I would want to strangle him.

Avatar
#86 Bean-counting cowboy
December 06 2014, 02:58PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
2
props
Burnward wrote:

If I were an advanced stats guy, I would want to strangle him.

If Lambert professes to be such a proponent of stats consider the following analogy:

-Deryk Engelland by the eye test sucks (bad giveaways, always on the ice when the puck goes in the net)

-Deryk Engelland by the stats test sucks (bad corsi, fenwick, WOWY... you name it.)

Conclusion: Deryk Engelland should not play hockey in the NHL.

Take this line of thinking to Lambert's writing:

-Ryan Lambert's articles by the eye test aren't very good (you read his articles and cringe, asinine arguments and inferences)

-Ryan Lambert's articles by the stats test aren't very good (number of commenters with negative feedback... I wonder what a poll as I have suggested would indicate?)

Conclusion: Ryan Lambert should not write blogs about hockey.

Is that too statsy for you Lambert? Or can we poke some holes in this purely stats based analysis?

Avatar
#87 SmellOfVictory
December 06 2014, 03:22PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props
Johnny Goooooooaldreau wrote:

Posting from my phone as I was banned, but now I'm back. Thanks Bagged Milk.

I think the point that needs to be made in regards to the advanced stat "revolution" in hockey is that hockey is NOT Baseball. Math equations are based on formulas, most of those formulas require a "constant" ie. the C in E=mC2. Baseball has several constants: The mound is ALWAYS 60'6" from home plate The bases are ALWAYS 90' apart The players are positioned roughly the same for every pitch (regardless of the size and shape of the ball park the out fielders are still usually in the same position at the pitch of the ball). These are the reasons that advanced stats work so well for Baseball.

Now imagine if you will that there is a runner on first and the batter hits the ball toward the 2nd baseman and before the ball gets to him the runner purposely deflects the ball past him into right field. That is not a legal play in baseball, it is in hockey though. Now imagine that the count is full, the pitcher pitches and the runner on first sprints in front of the pitch, blocking what would have been a strike, but because it never crosses the plate it is called a ball. This doesn't happen of course because it is against the rules. This is why Baseball is MEASURABLE.

It is also why hockey is NOT measurable, hockey is chaos, by it's very definition chaos is not measurable.

Stop it please. The Flames are winning because they are in "playoff" mode. They are doing the one percenters and capitalizing on the opportunities that teams in regular season mode are making. They will probably regress, but it won't be to do with PDO or Corsica it will be because other teams will start to ramp it up.

Fffff

Avatar
#88 Jake
December 06 2014, 03:26PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
6
props

PLEASE DO NOT LET LAMBERT EVER POST ON FN AGAIN.

Avatar
#89 christian tiberi
December 06 2014, 04:08PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
0
props

If the good luck continues, then let the good times roll. I was concerned around games 7-10 about the PDO and corsi numbers, but now I'm not. If we win, we win. If we lose, just remember that (arguably) our best centre is chilling on the sidelines, and our best right winger is still in Adirondack because he hasn't played pro yet.

Avatar
#90 Johnny Goooooooaldreau
December 06 2014, 07:05PM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
0
props
SmellOfVictory wrote:

Fffff

Care to elaborate?

Avatar
#91 Apollo
December 07 2014, 04:34AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
1
props

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Lambert is the worst hockey writer on earth. It's beyond painful to read his articles, which all turn out the same: "The flames can't win, unless they lose." He then fails to explain why this would be beneficial (it wouldn't) or how they could lose with our current roster (they can't, they are too good to be bottom feeders). But I've disproven Lambert's illogical and just plain stupid ramblings enough for one lifetime. I'm done with him. As you all should be.

Simply, Lambert is offensive, abrasive, illogical, moronic and incapable of writing a cohesive hockey article. Most of the time his articles read like a drunk monkey slammed it's fists on the keyboard repeatedly.

Flames Nation, please have some accountability. Fire Lambert. I cannot in good conscience continue to read or participate on FN if Lambert is still spreading his vile on this beloved site.

Sincerely Apollo, a concerned long time reader.

Avatar
#92 Kenta
December 07 2014, 07:54AM
Trash it!
1
trashes
Props
1
props
BurningSensation wrote:

This is wrong in just about every way possible.

If you don't want a discussion around a statistical analysis of the Fames, why are you here?

More BS from BS.

Avatar
#93 dilkaran
December 12 2014, 11:13AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Props
2
props

flames will make the playoffs this and will win the cup

Comments are closed for this article.