Flames January Prospect NHLE 2013-14

Justin Azevedo
February 10 2014 07:00AM

 

Via the WHL

The health of Calgary's prospect system is not to be questioned - with 12 prospects generating an NHLE of 25 or higher, things do look quite bright in terms of depth. Overall, the system still lacks an elite forward and an elite defensive prospect, but things are better than they have been in, well, decades.

For October's update and an NHLE primer, click here. For November's update, click here, and December's update is here.

Forwards

Forwards GP Points Translation NHLE
John Gaudreau 25 50 0.41 67.2
Bill Arnold 25 36 0.41 48.4
Sean Monahan 47 22 1.00 38.4
Émile Poirier 47 66 0.30 34.5
Kenny Agostino 20 19 0.41 31.9
Coda Gordon 39 50 0.30 31.5
Morgan Klimchuk 38 47 0.30 30.4
Max Reinhart 42 34 0.44/1.00 29.1
Markus Granlund 40 32 0.44 28.9
Mike Ferland 25 18 0.44 26.0
Sven Baertschi 42 16 0.44/1.00 25.8
Corban Knight 44 31 0.44 25.4
Mark Jankowski 26 17 0.41 22.0
Ben Hanowski 44 25 0.44 20.5
Josh Jooris 42 15 0.44 12.9
Tim Harrison 22 4 0.41 6.1
Matt DeBlouw 14 2 0.41 4.8
Turner Elson 30 2 0.44 2.4

Man, how sublime is John Gaudreau?

Granlund is ripping it up right now, but I think people may be overrating him a little. A lot of people were angry that he didn't play on his call up, but I don't really understand why. He's still replacement-level, so it's doubtful that any look we get of him would be positive. Just puts a lot of pressure on the guy, in my opinion.

For the first time, Monahan is under .5PPG this season. That's fine, because it's hard for a 19-year-old to be .5PPG in the NHL. Just more of an observation.

Hanowski went 10 games in a row this month without a point. He's generating less than 1.75 shots per game, which isn't good. All that, and he's still shooting 14% - 2%-4% higher than average. He is rapidly becoming a prospect of little importance.

On the other hand, the other Iginla prospect, Kenny Agostino, is lighting it up. His NHLE seems pretty pedestrian at first glance, but Agostino is producing in different ways: he is generating an insane amount of shots (10 in his last game, ~5 per game overall) and leading his team in scoring (Yale only has 59 goals as of writing). I'm much more bullish on his NHL chances than I am on Hanowski.

Baertschi's had some damn bad luck since arriving in Abbotsford. From when he was sent down to January 31st, the Heat were averaging just over 2 goals per game. He's generating shots - about three per game - and he has recently gone on a little bit of a run. I still think everything is fine, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't improve his scoring totals to get him to roughly the same pace he was scoring at in the NHL (i.e. he gains 5 points in the NHL and he increases his NHLE by 5 points, not PPG).

We've gone over why Klimchuk's raw NHLE isn't quite as high as we'd want, and we've also gone over why that doesn't matter so much. Here's another positive arrow for Klimchuk: his +1 scoring is almost 6 points better than his draft year scoring was - meaning that he's right in the "NHLer" development bracket. He's still in on a large portion of team scoring - about 40%.

Alas, Michael Ferland is done for year with his knee injury, which is too bad - he was just starting to get the bounces. He is still a very intriguing prospect but missing half of what is likely his biggest developmental year can't be good.

Max Reinhart's point total may seem lower than it should be, but there's three specific reasons for that: he only has 1 PP point, he's only shooting at 9.1%, and he's playing a lot of time on the PK. The difference between this year and last year for Reinhart? He's generating a crapload of shots. Last year, as a 20-year-old, it was pretty tough sledding for Reinhart - he was used in a defensive capability, but being where he was on his development curve meant he couldn't generate points and play those defensive minutes. It's a really positive development sign that this year he's been able to play those defensive minutes and score. Reinhart has more EV points than anyone below him has total points, which is insane. 

Defensemen

Defensemen GP Points Translation NHLE
Brett Kulak 52 50 0.30 23.7
Ryan Culkin 48 42 0.30 21.5
John Gilmour 26 15 0.41 19.4
Eric Roy 45 31 0.30 16.9
Mark Cundari 36 13 0.44 13.0
Rushan Rafikov 37 17 0.25 9.4
Tyler Wotherspoon 34 8 0.44 8.5
James Martin 36 14 0.26/0.44 8.2
Keegan Kanzig 44 4 0.30 2.2
John Ramage 31 1 0.44 0.9
Patrick Sieloff 2 0 0.44 0.0

Cundari's scored 5 in 6 since joining Chicago, which I think is hilarious. In case you missed it, he was loaned to the Blues' affiliate mid-month as Abbotsford has had quite the logjam with everyone on the blue line healthy. His results prior to the loan were sub-par, so maybe he can bring it back a little.

Eric Roy's scoring at about .7PPG, which is pretty damn good. Ryan Pulock is scoring at about .95PPG, so it might look like Roy is being carried a little - but when the scoring is adjusted to only include EV points, Roy is scoring about .55PPG and Pulock drops all the way down to .66PPG. He might be Calgary's best defensive prospect at this point, to be honest. 

Kanzig's scoring under the pace that he did last year - and last year's pace was 2.5 points. That kills me. He's going to have to score 2 points in his last 15 to get above 2.5. That doesn't sound hard, right?

Ramage is having a really rough go in Abbotsford. I'm not sure what there is to say about him.

Sieloff still isn't back. Hopefully that'll change soon.

Fearless Prediction

Bah. These suck. Hopefully we see better results from a couple of guys soon.

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Justin is a 23-year-old Flames fan who also happens to be pursuing a double major at the University of Calgary. He has played hockey at high levels, enjoys wearing shorts and tends to drink far too much Grasshopper. Please don't hate him.
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#51 Ryan Pike
February 10 2014, 11:11AM
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The slide rule is dependent on age a contract is signed and games played. If you signed during the calendar year you turned 18, your deal can slide up to twice. If you signed the year you turned 19, it can slide once. If you signed the year you turned 20, it can't slide at all.

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#52 Byron Bader
February 10 2014, 11:37AM
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@Justin Azevedo

Why for? Explain yourself. I'm curious.

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#53 mattyc
February 10 2014, 12:06PM
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The AHL guys seem pretty low. How much of that do you think has to do with the team/system, and how much of it is just the guys aren't as good?

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#54 Parallex
February 10 2014, 12:36PM
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@Kent Wilson

I'd still have Gaudreau play a full season in the AHL first.

Just to get used to something resembling an NHL Schedule... I imagine going from 44 games to 82 games will be somewhat of an adjustment that's probably better to make away from the NHL.

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#55 SmellOfVictory
February 10 2014, 12:37PM
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mattyc wrote:

The AHL guys seem pretty low. How much of that do you think has to do with the team/system, and how much of it is just the guys aren't as good?

I think it's partially "guys aren't as good" and partially that most prospects' NHLEs seem to drop when they transition to pro, at least initially. And outside of Baertschi and Granlund, they're almost all mid-low tier prospects (projected bottom 6 type forwards, bottom 3 defencemen). The only guys in the AHL who might surprise us are Reinhart and Ferland. But we won't know that for a couple of years.

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#56 thymebalm
February 10 2014, 02:01PM
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the forgotten man wrote:

Per you Baertschi comments, my concern with him going forward is between the ears. My hope is that with age/experience he will become more humble, introspective and adept at "rolling with the punches". We all have to learn this lesson in life irregardless of our professional address - some pickup the message in their late teens/early 20s; others in their late 30s/early 40s. Lets hope Sven falls in the first group.

It's not really a cause of concern for me just yet. Troy G. Ward is an excellent teacher and mentor for transitioning boys to men. He prides himself in it.

Sven will get his head on his shoulders. We've seen enough to believe that he's got all the tools. It's just putting it all together now.

It's just evident watching the game he's not driving the play out there yet and has been the recipient of an awesome line mate and the suddenly hot Josh Jooris as well.

His complete game'll come around, I'm sure. But he's in the right place for now. Reinhart and Granlund have the compete problem down and are more NHL ready than Sven considering their body of work at the AHL level.

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#57 Baalzamon
February 10 2014, 02:04PM
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Parallex wrote:

He probably hasn't been compared to Chara because no one should be compared to Chara.

Just my opinion but one should never say "skating issues aside"... skating issues are hugely important. Anytime I see skating listed as a weakness I consider it a major redflag.

I didn't say he should be I said I'm surprised he hasn't been. Have you not noticed that gigantic defensemen are ALWAYS "the next Chara"? That was true of Jamie Oleksiak, and that guy last year Sam Morin. As soon as huge dmen show any upside at all, they're instantly compared to Chara. Instantly. I'm just amazed that hasn't happened to Vanier yet, who is freaking massive and ACTUALLY SCORES.

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#58 The Last Big Bear
February 10 2014, 02:21PM
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NHLE is the average *subsequent year* production for players who make the jump from a given league into the NHL.

In this piece, you're doing a head-to-head comparison of what a player is expected to produce if he played in the NHL *next year*. A year of development is built into the NHLE calculation.

As a result, giving Monahan an NHLE based on *this* year's production is not comparing apples with apples. If you're going to assign him an NHLE for a head- to-head comparison, it would have to be based on the *2nd year* NHL production of players who produce at a 38 point pace in their rookie NHL season.

If there was a 1 year younger clone of Monahan playing in the CHL right now, he should theoretically have an NHLE of 38 (assuming the real Monahan finishes his season with 38 pts). Which means that in a head-to-head comparison like this, you would conclude that the 1 year younger juniors verion of Monahan is just as good as the 1 year older and clearly much better NHL version.

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#59 Byron Bader
February 10 2014, 02:43PM
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@The Last Big Bear

Monahan's already in the NHL and is still a top prospect because he's a rookie so Justin is just including him to show how all the prospects are doing. If you reference this earlier article...

http://flamesnation.ca/2013/5/8/top-30-draft-prospect-nhl-equivalencies

then it puts Monahan's current numbers into perspective. Based on his NHLE this summer, he's right on track of where he was projected to be before the season started.

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#60 T&A4Flames
February 10 2014, 02:45PM
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Baalzamon wrote:

JULIUS HONKA!!

Also, Alexis Vanier might be a guy to look at in the second round. He's gigantic and can score. Skating issues aside, I'm not sure why this guy hasn't been compared to Chara and vastly overrated yet.

Jack Glover for 2nd round. Big right shooting Dman.

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#61 McRib
February 10 2014, 04:33PM
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@Baalzamon

I liked Alexis Vanier on paper then after watching him at the Top Prospects game completely changed my mind, easily one of the worst defense in the game other than Jacob Middleton.

He is playing on the deepest team in the QMJHL any other team and he wouldn not be putting up anywhere near that many points. I would take Aaron Irving (Oil Kings) or Travis Sanheim (Hitmen) anyday and they might still be around in the third over Vanier.

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#62 The Last Big Bear
February 10 2014, 05:00PM
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@Byron Bader

Yes. Monahan's production is close to his NHLE from this summer. That's the problem, NHLE is for predicting the following year's NHL production.

Comparing his current production totals to the NHLE os the other prospects suggests he is a year behind in his development from where he actually is.

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#63 MontanaMan
February 10 2014, 08:40PM
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Interesting discussion regarding the Flames youth. The challenge is separating those who peaked at 18 and others who are late bloomers. One item of interest to me is with all of great things you hear about Troy Ward, why not move a pile of veterans this trade deadline in exchange for draft picks or young talent, then bring in a "teacher" like Ward who can relate to youth and can take the three years to mold his team.

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#64 Baalzamon
February 10 2014, 10:41PM
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FlamesRule wrote:

You're amazed it hasn't happened yet and here you are doing it

Reading comprehension, people. Honestly.

I have NOT ONCE compared Vanier to Chara, nor have I said he should be.

I'm just bemused at the lack of hype surrounding yet another massive defenseman. Why him? Why now?

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#65 SVENSANITY
February 11 2014, 02:49PM
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I didn't have time to read all the comments so if this is a repeat. I apologize.

In regards to Hanowski to be fair he has suffered a couple of injuries this season and he is currently out with a concussion. The concussion I think is going on 3 weeks I believe. He was starting to heat up just before that. Bad timing for an injury unfortunately that may be something to do with his drop off.

As for Baertschi what comments I did manage to catch glimpses of in skimming I agree with the majority of sentiments here. I think it was bad management on Feaster and Hartley's part to have him in Calgary. Perhaps that's pressure from the marketing department to sell tickets. My opinion Baertschi should have started his season in the AHL and he should have not been brought up until he was 100% ready. I hope that they maybe don't make that mistake again the constant up and down is only going to play with his head. this is an example of bad man management. So I agree it is indeed a mental issue and hopefully with the tutelage of Troy Ward he'll rebound and get his confidence back!

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#66 coachedpotatoe
February 11 2014, 06:31PM
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@SVENSANITY

Thanks for the update on Hankowski and his injuries; he indeed was quite hot for 2-3 weeks there and then he gets hurt,

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#67 McRib
February 12 2014, 09:44AM
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SmellOfVictory wrote:

I agree. He's probably got a ceiling of Matt Lombardi or someone along those lines. Not terrible, but not what you want to shoot for in the early/mid first round.

Whhhhhaaaattt disagree completely you guys clearly don't watch the Hitmen often. Jake Virtanen is the most explosive skater in the entire draft this season, an unbelievable physical presence and has the best shot of anyone to come through the WHL in oh a half decade or more!!! Last night he took over the game and made Leon Draisaitl look average as he did with Morgan Klimchuk earlier this month. I don't care about his Hockey IQ or on ice vision this kid is a HOCKEY PLAYER that is going to show up every night and score 30-40+ goal seasons for whatever club is lucky enough to draft him he is the best pure goal scorer that I have ever seen play in the WHL. He is a more physical much better skating with the same shot as a Bobby Ryan or a Dany Heatley in his prime before his former agent stole a good chunk of his money and he quit caring about Hockey.

You guys might want to look at the fact that Jake Virtanen has 35 GOALS playing on the Hitmen's second line... (Ignore assists as he played with two sporadic Russian with no chemistry most of the season).

Guess how many CHL draft eligible’s projected as first rounders this season have more goals this year than Jake Virtanen??

NO ONE!!! Not Sam Reinhart, not Sam Bennett, not Michael DalColle, not Leon Draisaitl.... Not (fancy dancy extremely overrated due to OHL Media, future bust) Josh Ho-Sang!!! NOBODY!!!

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