A Look Inside One-Goal Games

Ryan Pike
April 18 2014 10:04AM

One of the biggest rallying cries for how the Flames have improved over the season, at least in terms of their work ethic, has been the sheer amount of one-goal games they've taken part in this past season. In fact, the Flames played in 49 games decided by a goal, tying the NHL record.

But how did all these one-goal games come about? And what does the record really mean?

ONE-GOAL WINS

The Flames won 25 one-goal games. Splitting them up into third period scenarios, you get this:

  • Twice, the Flames led by two after 40 and prevented a full comeback (but let them get close).
  • Twice, the Flames led by one after 40 and shut down opponents in the third.
  • Twice, the Flames led by one after 40 and scored enough to maintain the lead.
  • Seven times, the Flames led by one after 40, blew the lead, but won in OT/shootout
  • Four times, the Flames were tied after 40 and won the game outright in the third.
  • Four times, the  Flames were tied after 40 and won the game in OT/shootout.
  • Most impressively, four times the Flames trailed by two after 40, but won the game (granted, three times that was in a shootout).

    ONE-GOAL LOSSES

    • Three times, the Flames led by one after 40 and blew the lead.
    • Two more times, they blew the lead but lost in OT/shootout and at least got a point.
    • Six times, the Flames entered the third tied and lost the game.
    • Three more times, they lost in OT/shootout after being tied through 40 minutes.
    • Three times, the Flames entered the third down by one and couldn't close the gap.
    • One other time, they did close the gap but lost in the shootout.
    • Four times, the Flames trailed by two and made it a one-goal game.
    • One other time, they trailed by two, forced OT but lost.
    • Once, they trailed by three goals after 40 and nearly came back to tie it.

    SO?

    A few take-aways.

    • The term "blew the lead" appears too much here (12 times). One-goal leads were rarely safe for this group, which obviously needs to change. Multi-goal leads were rarer, but much safer.
    • The team had mixed results when tied heading to the third: eight wins, nine losses (three in OT). Good teams win in the third.
    • But hey, the team's "never say die" attitude is evident here: 10 comebacks from two-goal deficits, with half of them resulting in the team getting points (and the other five being a 27th-place team making it close).

    In summation, the "49 one-goal games" record both praises and condemns the Calgary Flames. They had a lot of comebacks, but they also weren't fantastic with third-period leads.

    51a8cdc527ce12d222fdc583f3cf4368
    Now in his fourth season covering the Calgary Flames and the NHL, Ryan Pike is a Calgary native and FlamesNation's managing editor. He's trying to keep his head up, his stick on the ice and is giving it 110% every shift. You can also find his work at The Hockey Writers and the Wrestling Observer.
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    #51 Big Ell
    April 18 2014, 07:44PM
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    I am very happy if Kerr and Simmer are gone. After two years of GameCenter, I think that Simmer if possibly the worst color guy on TV and Kerr is right there too. This is a good day for GameCenter Flames fans.

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    #52 BurningSensation
    April 18 2014, 07:47PM
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    With regards to how the draft might go;

    - If you go over to Lowetide (the only Oiler blog you should ever subject yourself to, also - it's freaking excellent) the commenters there (especially those who have 'contacts' with the team) insist that the Oilers are fixated on two players; Ekblad, and Draisatl. Ekblad because he's BPA (and fits a need) and Draisatl because he's the big-body pivot with playmaking they lack.

    - Personally, I've been very impressed by Draisatl, his skating is at worst average for NHL players (he does lack explosiveness and an elite upper gear), but he gets where needs to OK, and his skillset is otherwise VERY impressive.

    - Both Bennett and Draisatl have essentially similar EV and PP counting stats - there is no edge for either to be found in the numbers. However, Bennett had at least one elite linemate most of the year, whereas the 2nd best player for big Leon was a defenseman - he was doing most of the heavy lifting on his own.

    - There is a significant chance the Oilers simply trade their pick away for immediate help.

    - I suspect that Ekblad and Reinhart (in whatever order) are the top two picks, leaving; Bennett, Draisatl, and Dal Colle as our options. Honestly, I'm happy with any of the three.

    - I can se Burke making a deal to move up to #2 (the #4 + something something) so he can land Reinhart. Burke is kinda bold that way, and if scouting staff insist that Reinhart is worth it Burke will dance as fast as he has to to make it happen.

    - With regards to 'accellerating the rebuild' the only way I could see Burke seriously hitting the accellerator is by landing a #1 C in his prime. There are two possibilities that I see as realistic for this to happen; Erik Staal and Jason Spezza. Both have big contracts and flaws, but both are still on the right side of 30, and both fit the bill of legit #1C with size and skill. You could slot either one immediately on to a top line of vets (Hudler and Cammallleri/Glen X for example) and llet the kids take cherry minutes and mop up duties.

    I'd also suggest that landing either player (depending on the cost) would immediately make the Flames a serious contender for the playoffs.

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    #53 Big Ell
    April 18 2014, 07:58PM
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    BurningSensation wrote:

    With regards to how the draft might go;

    - If you go over to Lowetide (the only Oiler blog you should ever subject yourself to, also - it's freaking excellent) the commenters there (especially those who have 'contacts' with the team) insist that the Oilers are fixated on two players; Ekblad, and Draisatl. Ekblad because he's BPA (and fits a need) and Draisatl because he's the big-body pivot with playmaking they lack.

    - Personally, I've been very impressed by Draisatl, his skating is at worst average for NHL players (he does lack explosiveness and an elite upper gear), but he gets where needs to OK, and his skillset is otherwise VERY impressive.

    - Both Bennett and Draisatl have essentially similar EV and PP counting stats - there is no edge for either to be found in the numbers. However, Bennett had at least one elite linemate most of the year, whereas the 2nd best player for big Leon was a defenseman - he was doing most of the heavy lifting on his own.

    - There is a significant chance the Oilers simply trade their pick away for immediate help.

    - I suspect that Ekblad and Reinhart (in whatever order) are the top two picks, leaving; Bennett, Draisatl, and Dal Colle as our options. Honestly, I'm happy with any of the three.

    - I can se Burke making a deal to move up to #2 (the #4 + something something) so he can land Reinhart. Burke is kinda bold that way, and if scouting staff insist that Reinhart is worth it Burke will dance as fast as he has to to make it happen.

    - With regards to 'accellerating the rebuild' the only way I could see Burke seriously hitting the accellerator is by landing a #1 C in his prime. There are two possibilities that I see as realistic for this to happen; Erik Staal and Jason Spezza. Both have big contracts and flaws, but both are still on the right side of 30, and both fit the bill of legit #1C with size and skill. You could slot either one immediately on to a top line of vets (Hudler and Cammallleri/Glen X for example) and llet the kids take cherry minutes and mop up duties.

    I'd also suggest that landing either player (depending on the cost) would immediately make the Flames a serious contender for the playoffs.

    Doesn't Draisatl play a lot with Hawks 1st rounder McNeil on the PP. They are together on a lot of highlight clips.

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    #54 Primo
    April 18 2014, 08:06PM
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    @BurningSensation

    Good post. Not sure the Flames want to accelerate things for next year given the maturity level of there young talent. I still see next year a critical year for the Flames in terms of player development and astute drafting during a strong draft year. Having said that I see that Burke will make a splash at the 2015 draft table and leave things as they are for 2014 other than perhaps being active in rounds 2-4.

    Trading for a top level goalie and top level Centre will always be on Burkes radar given his history. Will be an interesting 2 years coming up!

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    #55 Baalzamon
    April 18 2014, 08:23PM
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    Big Ell wrote:

    Doesn't Draisatl play a lot with Hawks 1st rounder McNeil on the PP. They are together on a lot of highlight clips.

    Irrelevant for 2 reasons.

    1. McNeill is playing in the AHL this season (he graduated)
    2. McNeill blows
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    #56 coachedpotatoe
    April 18 2014, 08:23PM
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    BurningSensation wrote:

    With regards to how the draft might go;

    - If you go over to Lowetide (the only Oiler blog you should ever subject yourself to, also - it's freaking excellent) the commenters there (especially those who have 'contacts' with the team) insist that the Oilers are fixated on two players; Ekblad, and Draisatl. Ekblad because he's BPA (and fits a need) and Draisatl because he's the big-body pivot with playmaking they lack.

    - Personally, I've been very impressed by Draisatl, his skating is at worst average for NHL players (he does lack explosiveness and an elite upper gear), but he gets where needs to OK, and his skillset is otherwise VERY impressive.

    - Both Bennett and Draisatl have essentially similar EV and PP counting stats - there is no edge for either to be found in the numbers. However, Bennett had at least one elite linemate most of the year, whereas the 2nd best player for big Leon was a defenseman - he was doing most of the heavy lifting on his own.

    - There is a significant chance the Oilers simply trade their pick away for immediate help.

    - I suspect that Ekblad and Reinhart (in whatever order) are the top two picks, leaving; Bennett, Draisatl, and Dal Colle as our options. Honestly, I'm happy with any of the three.

    - I can se Burke making a deal to move up to #2 (the #4 + something something) so he can land Reinhart. Burke is kinda bold that way, and if scouting staff insist that Reinhart is worth it Burke will dance as fast as he has to to make it happen.

    - With regards to 'accellerating the rebuild' the only way I could see Burke seriously hitting the accellerator is by landing a #1 C in his prime. There are two possibilities that I see as realistic for this to happen; Erik Staal and Jason Spezza. Both have big contracts and flaws, but both are still on the right side of 30, and both fit the bill of legit #1C with size and skill. You could slot either one immediately on to a top line of vets (Hudler and Cammallleri/Glen X for example) and llet the kids take cherry minutes and mop up duties.

    I'd also suggest that landing either player (depending on the cost) would immediately make the Flames a serious contender for the playoffs.

    Might not signing Stastny as a UFA accomplish the same thing without costing assets? or if you are going to trade for either of them might not RoR be a better option because of his youth and talent.

    I also think they need to add at least one higher level defender to really become a contender.

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    #57 Tommynotsohuge
    April 18 2014, 08:28PM
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    My prediction is The Flames hire George Mcphee after he gets axed by The Capitals. I would be totally ok with that. I also think we could trade our #4 pick and Colorado's 2nd rounder to Winnipeg for Evander Kane and their #8 where we could draft Virtenen. We might need to sweeten the deal with Byron or someone. Thoughts?

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    #58 BobbyO
    April 18 2014, 08:40PM
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    @Tommynotsohuge

    Creative ideas but they scare me!

    McPhee does not have a proven track record of success. With Ovechkin as his leader he was not capable of building a champion around one of the most talented players in the world. His teams always seemed to struggle!

    I believe the Flames need a young Niewendyk type and if he is not interested a "talent wizard" who can grow into the managers role under Burkes leadership.

    With regards to the trade we are giving up too much young potential for a proven trouble maker (I acknowledge extremely talented) player!

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    #59 Primo
    April 18 2014, 08:43PM
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    Big Ell wrote:

    I am very happy if Kerr and Simmer are gone. After two years of GameCenter, I think that Simmer if possibly the worst color guy on TV and Kerr is right there too. This is a good day for GameCenter Flames fans.

    Just wondering what are the specific sources for the firings? Or is this just rumour??

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    #60 BurningSensation
    April 18 2014, 08:58PM
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    coachedpotatoe wrote:

    Might not signing Stastny as a UFA accomplish the same thing without costing assets? or if you are going to trade for either of them might not RoR be a better option because of his youth and talent.

    I also think they need to add at least one higher level defender to really become a contender.

    - The Stastny thing is definitely a possibility, but while he doesn't 'cost' in assets, he does 'cost' in terms of the extra cap hit and term you have to give him to win his services. UFAs and RFAs are not 'free' from extra costs.

    - I LOVE your suggestion of going after ROR precisely because he is more versatile, bigger, and defensively responsible than Stastny.

    - I also agree (sort of) with the need for another high-end defender. I think though, that we may already have that guy in-house in Brodie. If he takes another step up the ladder we could have a home-grown Duncan Keith.

    - If you review the Oilers needs, they are pretty obvious; a #2C with size and defensive ability, at least one F for the 3rd line, and likely an entirely new 4th line, a #1, #2, and #3 defender (Marincin might be one of those, but he's played less than half a season in the NHL), and a younger #1 quality goaltender. That is quite the shopping list they need to address.

    In contrast, the Flames need; a #1 C (Monahan might be that guy in a few years, but he isn't right now), a F or two for the 4th line (and please, no Westgarths or McGrattans, I mean actual live hockey players), and a #2 or #3 D man (say a Girardi or Niskanen).

    So landing a Spezza or Staal to fill the #1C role would essentially mark the end of the 'rebuild' as the rest of the pieces are more or less in place (or relatively easy to acquire compared to a #1C). Growth from the kids would take care of the rest.

    Like I said in the other Lambert thread, this 'rebuild' has been going on for a while, and when you look at the gaps we simply don't have that many to fill - especially compared to our frequently high drafting neighbours to the North.

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    #61 BurningSensation
    April 18 2014, 09:06PM
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    Tommynotsohuge wrote:

    My prediction is The Flames hire George Mcphee after he gets axed by The Capitals. I would be totally ok with that. I also think we could trade our #4 pick and Colorado's 2nd rounder to Winnipeg for Evander Kane and their #8 where we could draft Virtenen. We might need to sweeten the deal with Byron or someone. Thoughts?

    - I'm lukewarm on McPhee, but would be ok with it.

    - I still think Joe Nieuwendyk is going to be the guy. He checks all the boxes; experienced, Ivy Leaguer, former Flame, and very very smart.

    - I don't think Wpg would do that deal. They might if they didn't have to give us a pick back (and I have to think about whether I would be OK with that....and I am).

    - Instead of offering our pick this year, I'd do the 'dangerous' thing instead and offer them; our 2015 pick (the McDavid draft), and a 2nd from this year for Kane.

    - If we could add an Evander Kane AND either E.Staal or Spezza we would be good to go for the playoffs (depending on what the cost for Staal or Spez is of course).

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    #62 Stubblejumper
    April 18 2014, 09:18PM
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    @BurningSensation

    Good post..thought-provoking.

    Re Flames needs..the key acquisitions (1C, 3D) you list are fairly light. I could agree with them for this year as primary objectives.

    If the goal is to get a Cup, and we have strength thru centre, we need the wingers to step up and provide some quality scoring through the top 9.

    For this we've got a timing issue as we need more time to assess Colborne, Byron etc (assuming Hudler, GlenX ae eventually traded) plus developing Poirier, Gaudreau, Klimchuk etc. for prime-time.

    Basically a coupla Sharps, Steens and Carters would help.

    From a development perspective, if we choose a patient Boston/Detroit approach, this will take 2-3 years minimum for the forwards and longer for the D.

    Knowing we are not that patient then speeding up the timeframe and providing shelter for the young guns to catch up makes a lot of sense.

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    #63 coachedpotatoe
    April 18 2014, 09:21PM
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    BurningSensation wrote:

    - The Stastny thing is definitely a possibility, but while he doesn't 'cost' in assets, he does 'cost' in terms of the extra cap hit and term you have to give him to win his services. UFAs and RFAs are not 'free' from extra costs.

    - I LOVE your suggestion of going after ROR precisely because he is more versatile, bigger, and defensively responsible than Stastny.

    - I also agree (sort of) with the need for another high-end defender. I think though, that we may already have that guy in-house in Brodie. If he takes another step up the ladder we could have a home-grown Duncan Keith.

    - If you review the Oilers needs, they are pretty obvious; a #2C with size and defensive ability, at least one F for the 3rd line, and likely an entirely new 4th line, a #1, #2, and #3 defender (Marincin might be one of those, but he's played less than half a season in the NHL), and a younger #1 quality goaltender. That is quite the shopping list they need to address.

    In contrast, the Flames need; a #1 C (Monahan might be that guy in a few years, but he isn't right now), a F or two for the 4th line (and please, no Westgarths or McGrattans, I mean actual live hockey players), and a #2 or #3 D man (say a Girardi or Niskanen).

    So landing a Spezza or Staal to fill the #1C role would essentially mark the end of the 'rebuild' as the rest of the pieces are more or less in place (or relatively easy to acquire compared to a #1C). Growth from the kids would take care of the rest.

    Like I said in the other Lambert thread, this 'rebuild' has been going on for a while, and when you look at the gaps we simply don't have that many to fill - especially compared to our frequently high drafting neighbours to the North.

    I get the cost of signing UFA'a but as we have cap space it is worth the look.It's going to cost both money and assets for either Spezza or Staal anyways. I agree with you on Brodie but I was thinking about the need to upgrade the second pairing and you have mentioned a couple of names I have on my list. I'd prefer to look at rolling four lines having some upgrade in a physical skilled presence than having a defined fourth line. one day I will go into details on why I like this so much.

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    #64 Tommynotsohuge
    April 18 2014, 09:26PM
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    @BurningSensation

    It would be dangerous indeed, but I tend to agree, with a top line of Cammy ('re-signed of course), Stall/ Spezza and Kane. A second line of Baertshi/ Gaudreau, Monahan and Hudler. We should be a playoff team no doubt.

    As for Nieuwendyk, he'd be my first choice for sure, but knowing Mcphee and Burke are great friends. I have a feeling that George will be Calgary bound before the draft.

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    #65 coachedpotatoe
    April 18 2014, 09:41PM
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    BurningSensation wrote:

    - The Stastny thing is definitely a possibility, but while he doesn't 'cost' in assets, he does 'cost' in terms of the extra cap hit and term you have to give him to win his services. UFAs and RFAs are not 'free' from extra costs.

    - I LOVE your suggestion of going after ROR precisely because he is more versatile, bigger, and defensively responsible than Stastny.

    - I also agree (sort of) with the need for another high-end defender. I think though, that we may already have that guy in-house in Brodie. If he takes another step up the ladder we could have a home-grown Duncan Keith.

    - If you review the Oilers needs, they are pretty obvious; a #2C with size and defensive ability, at least one F for the 3rd line, and likely an entirely new 4th line, a #1, #2, and #3 defender (Marincin might be one of those, but he's played less than half a season in the NHL), and a younger #1 quality goaltender. That is quite the shopping list they need to address.

    In contrast, the Flames need; a #1 C (Monahan might be that guy in a few years, but he isn't right now), a F or two for the 4th line (and please, no Westgarths or McGrattans, I mean actual live hockey players), and a #2 or #3 D man (say a Girardi or Niskanen).

    So landing a Spezza or Staal to fill the #1C role would essentially mark the end of the 'rebuild' as the rest of the pieces are more or less in place (or relatively easy to acquire compared to a #1C). Growth from the kids would take care of the rest.

    Like I said in the other Lambert thread, this 'rebuild' has been going on for a while, and when you look at the gaps we simply don't have that many to fill - especially compared to our frequently high drafting neighbours to the North.

    Spezza makes $7 million and Staal $8million if I have the right one, what would Stastny (somewhere in between)cost and no assets, RoR will demand that kind of money and assets.

    Personally I would be okay with waiting a year and seeing how the young guys do; we have Backs, Monahan and Stajan with NHL experience and Knight, Granlund and Arnold to compete for that last spot.(plus all of the following have played some center at the NHL,Bouma, Colborne and Byron)

    It's on defence that I see the need for action. We have Gio and Brodie a good solid number one pairing and then we have Wides, Russell and Smid as signed NHL vets all better suited as third pairing defenders.(second in an emergency). Spoon is the most ready from the kids and he fits the 3rd pairing grouping as well at this time of his career. If we could add the likes of Giardi/Niskaken from your list or trade for say a Myers might we better served.(less costly than either Spezza or Staal I suspect)

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    #66 BurningSensation
    April 18 2014, 09:42PM
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    Stubblejumper wrote:

    Good post..thought-provoking.

    Re Flames needs..the key acquisitions (1C, 3D) you list are fairly light. I could agree with them for this year as primary objectives.

    If the goal is to get a Cup, and we have strength thru centre, we need the wingers to step up and provide some quality scoring through the top 9.

    For this we've got a timing issue as we need more time to assess Colborne, Byron etc (assuming Hudler, GlenX ae eventually traded) plus developing Poirier, Gaudreau, Klimchuk etc. for prime-time.

    Basically a coupla Sharps, Steens and Carters would help.

    From a development perspective, if we choose a patient Boston/Detroit approach, this will take 2-3 years minimum for the forwards and longer for the D.

    Knowing we are not that patient then speeding up the timeframe and providing shelter for the young guns to catch up makes a lot of sense.

    In truth I think acquiring a #1C is all but impossible unless you draft one. They simply don't get traded very often (Joe Thornton being the only guy I can think of off the top of my head - and that was a good while back). Toronto has been looking for a true #1 since Sundin left, and Calgary has been searching since Joe Nieuwendyk was shipped out for Iggy.

    But...the rumour mill has both Ottawa and Carolina looking to reset things and both those guys may legitimately be on the market. That said, they would likely cost a fortune, and I honestly can't see either team doing a deal with Calgary and not also insisting on getting either Gaudreau or Monahan as part of the package (which makes it hard for me to say 'just go for it').

    I said both have flaws and they clearly do - Staal has had two ppg+ seasons, and has otherwise been underwhelming. Spezza has a better track record points wise, but is less the physical presence, less the defensive player, and way, way more injury prone.

    So...if we assume that; A. Monahan or Gaudreau aren't part of the deal, and B. that we aren't 'out bid' by other teams to the point the price is just stupid, I'd say do it. In truth though, the chances are miniscule that either guy gets moved.

    The far more likely scenario is that we draft a C with our #4 overall pick (Bennett or Draisatl), and groom them to eventually play a top 6 role.

    As for the wingers issue, I honestly think we would be fine rolling with what we have, and eventually a Sven, JG or maybe even a Ferland will develop into the guy we need.

    To be a 'legit' contender you need to have a core of;

    3-4 forwards who are 'elite' (top 5-10 for their position) and preferably two of them should be C's (Chicago's 'problem' is that 3 of their 4 best fwds are wingers which is why they seem to audition a new #2 C every other week).

    1-2 defenseman who are elite (top 10), and failing that, 4 defenders who are above average (the Vancouver/NYR model).

    An average or better goaltender (Detroit and Chicago both demonstrated that an elite G is simply not required. Sorry Howard/Crawford, but its true).

    We have in hand exactly zero forwards who fit that bill, but a lot of potential contenders (Monahan, JG, Sven, Poirier, Klimchuk our #1pick this year, and maybe even a Granlund)

    Gio and Brodie are solid fits for the D portion, and Ramo/Ortio/Gillies should be sufficient for the goaltending.

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    #67 FireOnIce
    April 18 2014, 10:03PM
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    Don't think Eric Staal will be leaving Carolina any time soon. Jordan asked to be traded there so they could play together, and rumour has always had it that Marc wants to play with them as well. And it won't be in Calgary, you can pretty much guarantee that.

    Spezza wouldn't be too bad and there have been rumours during at least two of the last three or four drafts that he was coming to Calgary. That never happened obviously and now he's several years older, and an injury risk. He's missed a bunch of time with a bad back. Do you really want to trade young assets to get someone who could tweak his already-injured back in game 1 and never play again?

    I personally would rather have the Flames ride out this rebuild without overpaying for someone to help accelerate it. No need to pay $8M per year for a billion years to Eric Staal AFTER giving up a top 4 pick, quality roster player (such as GlenX), and a quality prospect. You know Carolina will be asking for at least that if he really was available.

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    #68 Big Ell
    April 18 2014, 10:13PM
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    Primo wrote:

    Just wondering what are the specific sources for the firings? Or is this just rumour??

    These are just FN rumours.

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    #70 beloch
    April 18 2014, 11:28PM
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    Ryan Pike wrote:

    Apparently Mark Spector was on with Jason Gregor and told him that Kerr & Simmer have been gassed. I've heard various things but won't really comment until something official is said by Sportsnet.

    IF it pans out, I'm curious what happens with the regional teams.

    The way I see it, with CBC scrapping it's hockey staff (because they no longer own the rights to any hockey), pretty much all of the HNIC crew are going to be heading over to Sportsnet. The cream of TSN's live crews are likely to do the same because covering competitive dart-throwing sucks. The highlight show people might soldier on, but a lot of TSN's staff is facing unemployment. Thanks to Rogers' night-of-the-long-knives, Sportsnet has its pick of Canada's hockey broadcasting talent. Kerr and Simmer might not make the cut.

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    #71 The Sultan
    April 19 2014, 04:48AM
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    Sorry, off-topic; Heat win 3 - 0 behind Rhino's three points (1-2). Poirier also played and scored.

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    #72 coachedpotatoe
    April 19 2014, 07:54AM
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    Back to our discussion on whether or not Burke blows up the core(BobbyO's words) or not. We have discussed the ideas of trades for players like Spezza or Staal, which will all cost us significant assets beyond the core. So I suggested that if Burke's plan is to significantly upgrade the veteran presence he should look at the UFA's suggesting Stastny as one example. So I thought I would put together a partial list of UFA's with their current salaries for us to hash around until a new thread is created. Here it is

    Center: Stastny $6.6, Legwand $4.5, Lewis $1.3, Boyle $1.7, and Grabowski $3.

    LW(I'm not sure this is need) Winnik $1.8, Moulson $3.2, Vanek $5.75, Mason $1.

    RW: Callahan $4.3, Kulemin $2.8, and Setoguchi $3.8

    Defence: Mesaeros $2,Nikitin $2.1, Quincy $3.8, Fayne $1.3, Strahlman $1.7, Diaz $1.2, Niskanen $2.3, Lee $1.1, and Ranger $1.8.

    These are all in millions just in case anyone thinks I crazy. I compiled this list a couple of weeks ago and some of them may have been signed. I have not included any RFA's but two that I think Burke might be interested in(at least the fan base suggests he might be) RoR and Reimer. Again I'm not saying this list is complete as I have left off all the Flames UFA's intentionally.

    Personally as I have stated before I would be prepared to let the development of our forward ranks stay the same. I would consider the possibilities on the blueline though. One reason I would not blow up the team is the work ethic and chemistry that seems to have been developed this year.

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    #73 Howie Meeker
    April 19 2014, 08:11AM
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    As Ryan pointed out in the article the flames need to be able to "defend" a lead in the third, to me this all points to upgrading the backend as a priority. The real dark horse here is Dennis Wideman and if he comes back next season and lives up the the billing to quarterback the P/P for a full season. If Burke can add to the d-core and upgrade the goal tending with a legit #1 our path to the playoffs will become a lot brighter.

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    #74 coachedpotatoe
    April 19 2014, 08:54AM
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    The Sultan wrote:

    Sorry, off-topic; Heat win 3 - 0 behind Rhino's three points (1-2). Poirier also played and scored.

    For a bit more detail go the Heat get reinforcement thread.

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    #75 coachedpotatoe
    April 19 2014, 09:00AM
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    Howie Meeker wrote:

    As Ryan pointed out in the article the flames need to be able to "defend" a lead in the third, to me this all points to upgrading the backend as a priority. The real dark horse here is Dennis Wideman and if he comes back next season and lives up the the billing to quarterback the P/P for a full season. If Burke can add to the d-core and upgrade the goal tending with a legit #1 our path to the playoffs will become a lot brighter.

    Personally I believe Ram will be better next year. His play over the last quarter of the season strongly suggests that he can be an above average NHL goalie. As Burke seems to be determined to keep Ortio as the starter in the AHL next year(he said as much on garbage bag day0 what has to be addressed is who will be the backup on the Flames and will they be good enough to push Ramo and win games.

    If Widesman returns to form he can be a sound second pairing defender, if not we need to add 2 second pairing guys as the rest are sound 3rd pairing guys.

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    #76 Stubblejumper
    April 19 2014, 09:33AM
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    BurningSensation wrote:

    In truth I think acquiring a #1C is all but impossible unless you draft one. They simply don't get traded very often (Joe Thornton being the only guy I can think of off the top of my head - and that was a good while back). Toronto has been looking for a true #1 since Sundin left, and Calgary has been searching since Joe Nieuwendyk was shipped out for Iggy.

    But...the rumour mill has both Ottawa and Carolina looking to reset things and both those guys may legitimately be on the market. That said, they would likely cost a fortune, and I honestly can't see either team doing a deal with Calgary and not also insisting on getting either Gaudreau or Monahan as part of the package (which makes it hard for me to say 'just go for it').

    I said both have flaws and they clearly do - Staal has had two ppg+ seasons, and has otherwise been underwhelming. Spezza has a better track record points wise, but is less the physical presence, less the defensive player, and way, way more injury prone.

    So...if we assume that; A. Monahan or Gaudreau aren't part of the deal, and B. that we aren't 'out bid' by other teams to the point the price is just stupid, I'd say do it. In truth though, the chances are miniscule that either guy gets moved.

    The far more likely scenario is that we draft a C with our #4 overall pick (Bennett or Draisatl), and groom them to eventually play a top 6 role.

    As for the wingers issue, I honestly think we would be fine rolling with what we have, and eventually a Sven, JG or maybe even a Ferland will develop into the guy we need.

    To be a 'legit' contender you need to have a core of;

    3-4 forwards who are 'elite' (top 5-10 for their position) and preferably two of them should be C's (Chicago's 'problem' is that 3 of their 4 best fwds are wingers which is why they seem to audition a new #2 C every other week).

    1-2 defenseman who are elite (top 10), and failing that, 4 defenders who are above average (the Vancouver/NYR model).

    An average or better goaltender (Detroit and Chicago both demonstrated that an elite G is simply not required. Sorry Howard/Crawford, but its true).

    We have in hand exactly zero forwards who fit that bill, but a lot of potential contenders (Monahan, JG, Sven, Poirier, Klimchuk our #1pick this year, and maybe even a Granlund)

    Gio and Brodie are solid fits for the D portion, and Ramo/Ortio/Gillies should be sufficient for the goaltending.

    Agree re need to build strength down the middle, and that you need to draft top #1C/#2C as you generally can't trade for them.

    Re Staal/Spezza/RoR...acquisition cost would be prohibitive and require top picks & prospects. Believe we are better to draft Bennett/Draisaitl to go along with Monahan and develop these two over the next 2-3 years. We then avoid Chicago's #2C problem.

    Add in two of Backlund/Granlund/Arnold/Knight/Stajan as #3C/#4C and we're in pretty good shape to roll all 4 lines aka Boston or Montreal of yesteryear. Would be nice to add size for the #3C as a defensive specialist (UFA Boyle?) but this can be rounded out over the next couple years.

    Agree with Coached Potatoe as well that we have ample top 6 (and top 12) forwards that are good, except for top RW sniper which is still open.

    In goal between Ramo, Ortio and Gillies we're serviceable for the next 2-3 years.

    Defence then becomes the issue, particularly at RD and also due to the long lead time to develop.

    Given this draft is so weak for defencemen, particularly RD, my preference would be for Burke to package #2 pick and prospects to get a #5 - #15 pick to acquire Alex Tuch, a 6'4" RW with the US NTDP (great developmental training regime).

    With drafting a top C to pair with Monahan plus shore up our gaping Top 6 RW hole with Tuch the foundation for the Forwards is essentially done with slight tinkering & upgrading on a select basis over the next 2-4 years.

    The focus of the rest of all the picks this year and next, along with UFA or trades, becomes top 4 D-men.

    So in summary..getting Draisaitl or Bennett plus trade to draft Dal Colle (highest price) or Tuch (more moderate price) will essentially complete the rebuild up front, with Goalkeeper looked after reasonably well now and in the future. This then leaves the D to focus on plus selectively tinkering over time.

    Would dangling GlenX or Hudler plus a prospect or a Second be enough to get the pick to draft Tuch?

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    #77 T&A4Flames
    April 19 2014, 10:18AM
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    This recent talk of accelerating the rebuild by trading some of our young assets for veteran C is kind of annoying me. Would we be talking about this if we didn't exceed expectations this season? Doubtful. I think most of us were settled in and ready for a few years of suck and high picks.i don't think Burke means what you are all talking about in terms of accelerate.moving OUT the vets for young players, prospects and multiple draft picks is what I believe is how things are accelerated. Trading away our young assets to get these aging players is what we used to do and it lead us to mediocrity.

    There will be a time soon enough that we can be looking at doing this but, IMO, not for at least another season. Burke is smart enough to know that he is not just rebuilding the Flames but our AHL affiliate as we; the entire organizational depth. When guys like Baertschi and Gaudreau find permanent spots on the big club then their depth will need to be filled with other young draft picks ready to jump to pro, starting in the A. I would much rather see us stay status quo this year then to go out and grab players that will help reach a mediocre Level of play again because we think we have fewer holes than what actually exists. I hoop whatever targets Burke is looking at are younger,, Maybe not quite fully developed but are close. Guys like Alex Chaisson or Charlie Coyle. I suggested yesterday looking at trying to grab Erik Gudbranson on the cheap yesterday. These are players we should take chances on, again, IMO.

    I would be highly disappointed if made a trade to grab Staal or Spezza at this stage.

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    #78 Kevin R
    April 19 2014, 01:55PM
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    T&A4Flames wrote:

    This recent talk of accelerating the rebuild by trading some of our young assets for veteran C is kind of annoying me. Would we be talking about this if we didn't exceed expectations this season? Doubtful. I think most of us were settled in and ready for a few years of suck and high picks.i don't think Burke means what you are all talking about in terms of accelerate.moving OUT the vets for young players, prospects and multiple draft picks is what I believe is how things are accelerated. Trading away our young assets to get these aging players is what we used to do and it lead us to mediocrity.

    There will be a time soon enough that we can be looking at doing this but, IMO, not for at least another season. Burke is smart enough to know that he is not just rebuilding the Flames but our AHL affiliate as we; the entire organizational depth. When guys like Baertschi and Gaudreau find permanent spots on the big club then their depth will need to be filled with other young draft picks ready to jump to pro, starting in the A. I would much rather see us stay status quo this year then to go out and grab players that will help reach a mediocre Level of play again because we think we have fewer holes than what actually exists. I hoop whatever targets Burke is looking at are younger,, Maybe not quite fully developed but are close. Guys like Alex Chaisson or Charlie Coyle. I suggested yesterday looking at trying to grab Erik Gudbranson on the cheap yesterday. These are players we should take chances on, again, IMO.

    I would be highly disappointed if made a trade to grab Staal or Spezza at this stage.

    Agreed, all this talk about Spezza & Staal & even Kane sounds wonderful but hardly the path this team should take at this time. What I would like to see:

    1/Next year, I want to see roster opening for Gaudreau & Sven on the big team. I know many argue JG should spend 1 year in the AHL, I'm not an advocate of that because my belief JG is ready to develop at the NHL level just like Money did.

    2/I would like to see what it would take to get that Florida or Buffalo pick without giving up our 4th over all. Getting Ekblad & Bennett or Draisaitl would be huge moving forward for this team. Not sure if either of these teams would find a package of Hudler & 2 very good NHL ready prospects like Granlund & someone else is enough or attractive enough, but that would be along the lines of the only major splash we should do.

    3/Otherwise, keep the course. Next year is going to be a win win for us. If we do well & out of the McDavid/Eichel sweepstakes, it means our young kids have made huge steps again. Then we talk about pieces of what it would take to challenge for playoffs. If they digress & we have a poor year, we have a potential future franchise player to slot in at the 2015 draft.

    1 more year before this kind of talk. 1 more year & our top 9 forwards will look so much different than last year with hope turning to anticipation.

    3/ Do not resign Cammi, let him go

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    #79 coachedpotatoe
    April 19 2014, 05:47PM
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    T&A4Flames wrote:

    This recent talk of accelerating the rebuild by trading some of our young assets for veteran C is kind of annoying me. Would we be talking about this if we didn't exceed expectations this season? Doubtful. I think most of us were settled in and ready for a few years of suck and high picks.i don't think Burke means what you are all talking about in terms of accelerate.moving OUT the vets for young players, prospects and multiple draft picks is what I believe is how things are accelerated. Trading away our young assets to get these aging players is what we used to do and it lead us to mediocrity.

    There will be a time soon enough that we can be looking at doing this but, IMO, not for at least another season. Burke is smart enough to know that he is not just rebuilding the Flames but our AHL affiliate as we; the entire organizational depth. When guys like Baertschi and Gaudreau find permanent spots on the big club then their depth will need to be filled with other young draft picks ready to jump to pro, starting in the A. I would much rather see us stay status quo this year then to go out and grab players that will help reach a mediocre Level of play again because we think we have fewer holes than what actually exists. I hoop whatever targets Burke is looking at are younger,, Maybe not quite fully developed but are close. Guys like Alex Chaisson or Charlie Coyle. I suggested yesterday looking at trying to grab Erik Gudbranson on the cheap yesterday. These are players we should take chances on, again, IMO.

    I would be highly disappointed if made a trade to grab Staal or Spezza at this stage.

    While I mostly agree with you I don't think Burke does. I believe his mandate is get this team back into the playoffs (at least into the hunt) ASAP. I hope I'm wrong but that is not my read of him.

    Personally upfront I like the potential of Monahan. Backs, Bouma, Colborne,Johnny, Granlund, Sven, Rhino, Knight, Arnold, Poirier,Ferland and Klimchuk and while I'm not convinced that any of them will be generational elite I believe they all can be NHL forwards and more than a few will be high end. Add the veteran presence of Glenx,Hudler, and Stajan and this can be competitive. I am not as comfortable with the future on defense. The Flames have a sound top pairing Gio and Brodie and a group of other vets who are IMO third pairing guys, unless Wides returns to form. The young guys include Spoon who right now is another third pairing guy and really after that Billins and Cundari who are both undersized. The rest including Sieloff are unproven and boy do I hope he gets healthy and then we can worry about him and hockey. Kanzig,Kulak, Culkin and Roy are all a long ways off.

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    #80 Nummin
    April 21 2014, 09:59AM
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    I have a hard time believing we will have a shot at a top 5 pick next year, even with Cammy on the way out, as long as Ramo maintains his year end play and our young guys progress a bit. The obvious goals for the team next year are to be better, they will, and develop the young guys (with the flames or with the heat).

    The holes on the flames should be filled by the Heat players we feel should be ready to make the jump (Sven, Rhino, Knight, Granlund), but bring in 1-2 of the right UFAs to make them fight for their spot (perhaps Boyle if the price/term are reasonable). But a Dman is a huge need through UFAs. The guys who just finished junior/college and drafted this year should spend a year with the heat.

    Without some serious dealing by Burke and some position shuffling there's gonna be a lot of guys we want to be with the Flames end up with the Heat (a good thing).

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    #81 King Quong
    April 23 2014, 03:07PM
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    BurningSensation wrote:

    With regards to how the draft might go;

    - If you go over to Lowetide (the only Oiler blog you should ever subject yourself to, also - it's freaking excellent) the commenters there (especially those who have 'contacts' with the team) insist that the Oilers are fixated on two players; Ekblad, and Draisatl. Ekblad because he's BPA (and fits a need) and Draisatl because he's the big-body pivot with playmaking they lack.

    - Personally, I've been very impressed by Draisatl, his skating is at worst average for NHL players (he does lack explosiveness and an elite upper gear), but he gets where needs to OK, and his skillset is otherwise VERY impressive.

    - Both Bennett and Draisatl have essentially similar EV and PP counting stats - there is no edge for either to be found in the numbers. However, Bennett had at least one elite linemate most of the year, whereas the 2nd best player for big Leon was a defenseman - he was doing most of the heavy lifting on his own.

    - There is a significant chance the Oilers simply trade their pick away for immediate help.

    - I suspect that Ekblad and Reinhart (in whatever order) are the top two picks, leaving; Bennett, Draisatl, and Dal Colle as our options. Honestly, I'm happy with any of the three.

    - I can se Burke making a deal to move up to #2 (the #4 + something something) so he can land Reinhart. Burke is kinda bold that way, and if scouting staff insist that Reinhart is worth it Burke will dance as fast as he has to to make it happen.

    - With regards to 'accellerating the rebuild' the only way I could see Burke seriously hitting the accellerator is by landing a #1 C in his prime. There are two possibilities that I see as realistic for this to happen; Erik Staal and Jason Spezza. Both have big contracts and flaws, but both are still on the right side of 30, and both fit the bill of legit #1C with size and skill. You could slot either one immediately on to a top line of vets (Hudler and Cammallleri/Glen X for example) and llet the kids take cherry minutes and mop up duties.

    I'd also suggest that landing either player (depending on the cost) would immediately make the Flames a serious contender for the playoffs.

    I would love if we could snag Eric Staal even though he makes 8 mill.

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