Weekend Open Thread: Draft Week Scenarios

Ryan Pike
June 21 2014 09:00AM

Lads and ladies, we are now less than one week away from the Most Important Draft in Calgary Flames History*.

*- Well, since last year's.

There's a LOT of chatter in hockey circles about movement at the top end of the draft order.

So what happens? I can, with absolutely no insider info, speculate three main scenarios.

FLAMES DRAFT 1ST AND 4TH

Calgary utilizes organizational assets (later picks, prospects, roster players) to trade with Florida in exchange for the 1st overall pick. Calgary drafts 1st and 4th, in a similar manner to the Vancouver Canucks in 1999 Draft selecting 2nd and 3rd. Brian Burke and Brad Treliving are seen by TSN cameras high-fiving, Flames pick Aaron Ekblad and Sam Bennett and the rebuild is fast-tracked. Edmonton weeps.

(There's also a version of this where they trade down to 10th or so and use the assets they get for trading down to get 1st overall also. They draft Aaron Ekblad and one of the second tier guys like Nikolaj Ehlers, Haydn Fleury or Nikolai Goldobin. Edmonton weeps.)

Likelihood: Low.

Why?: The price tag to get 1st overall straight-away would be steep. We're talking next year's 1st rounder and/or a high end roster player. And Sven Baertschi. And other stuff. To get both Sedins, Brian Burke sent Bryan McCabe (who was good then) and a future 1st rounder to Chicago for 4th overall, then flipped that pick with two 3rd rounders for the 1st overall pick, and then traded down to 2nd on the condition Atlanta wouldn't take a Sedin. That's ridiculous, and I'm not sure it can be pulled off again, nor am I sure the Flames have the stomach to part with the assets required to do it.

FLAMES TRADE UP

Calgary takes their 4th overall pick, add a prospect and/or roster asset (Hudler?) and trade them to Florida in order to move up to 1st overall and get Aaron Ekblad. Edmonton weeps.

Likelihood: Low to moderate.

Why?: The price would be lower, and Florida would get a Flames roster player or prospect, as well as one of the top four guys in the draft. Everybody wins. Calgary's defense gets massively upgraded for the future. I'm not 100% sure Calgary does this, though, as the interest around 1st overall may bid the price above what Brad Treliving cares to give. "Hudler and Baertschi and 4th overall? Screw it, we'll see who's left when we pick 4th."

FLAMES STAY PUT

Calgary makes no trades, drafts 4th, picks whoever's left from the vaunted top 4.

Likelihood: Moderate to high

Why?: They don't give anything up and they gain an asset. The bidding war for 1st overall may become stupid, causing the Flames to "settle" for 4th and one of the Sams or Leon Draisaitl.

FLAMES TRADE DOWN

Calgary accepts an offer from a team drafting below them that wants one of the top 4. They get an asset, most likely a second or third rounder, to drop in the draft order.

Likelihood: Moderate

Why?: Remember the bidding war? Well, Calgary could be a beneficiary if someone a team below them covets falls to 4 and that coveting team makes a stupid big offer to get them to move down. And Colorado gave Calgary a second round pick for marginal NHL goaltender Reto Berra, so let's not pretend it's not possible. The Flames' management have mentioned a "top 6" rather than a top 4, and likely they have a liking towards someone like Jake Virtanen, Nick Ritchie or Michael Dal Colle. While they probably like Sam Reinhart more, if somebody gives you a chance to add to your prospect depth and give your scouting and development staff more kicks at the can, you can be convinced to "settle" for Virtanen and a second (for example) rather than Bennett or Draisaitl.

Teams often make foolish decisions when they're on the clock and have their Draft Goggles on.

What do you think is the most likely scenario next weekend?

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Now in his third full season covering the Calgary Flames and the NHL, Ryan Pike is a Calgary native and FlamesNation's managing editor. He's trying to keep his head up, his stick on the ice and is giving it 110% every shift. You can also find his work at The Hockey Writers, the Wrestling Observer and Tough Talk MMA.
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#51 DragonFlame
June 22 2014, 03:27PM
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For everyone who insists it's BB and BT's draft, please read:

http://flames.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=723052

Give the man (Burke) some leeway. He's not going to step in and undermine the scouting staff if they don't think Ritchie is the BPA.

It's kind of like the CEO at the Royal Bank trying to explain to a teller how to do their job. While the words may carry weight, the bottom line is the CEO would suck behind the counter, because they've likely never done it.

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#52 Jeff In Lethbridge
June 22 2014, 03:38PM
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DragonFlame wrote:

For everyone who insists it's BB and BT's draft, please read:

http://flames.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=723052

Give the man (Burke) some leeway. He's not going to step in and undermine the scouting staff if they don't think Ritchie is the BPA.

It's kind of like the CEO at the Royal Bank trying to explain to a teller how to do their job. While the words may carry weight, the bottom line is the CEO would suck behind the counter, because they've likely never done it.

If you recall, Brian Burke came in and reviewed the drafting and trades of the last number of years which all culminated in the firing of Jay Feaster. It wasn't the scouts that were fired it was Jay Feaster. The Scouts will put their list together but the man whose job is on the line is the one who makes the decisions even if the decision is just do agree with the scouts.

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#53 DragonFlame
June 22 2014, 03:56PM
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Jeff In Lethbridge wrote:

If you recall, Brian Burke came in and reviewed the drafting and trades of the last number of years which all culminated in the firing of Jay Feaster. It wasn't the scouts that were fired it was Jay Feaster. The Scouts will put their list together but the man whose job is on the line is the one who makes the decisions even if the decision is just do agree with the scouts.

Jeff, you might want to consider a tinfoil hat. First, who will argue that Feaster almost single-handedly killed any hopes the Flames had of a re-build when he didn't know enough about the rules regarding ROR? Second, Feaster and Flames' fans got screwed by Jarome Iginla when Feaster didn't get Iggy to commit on paper where he would go, and Iginla basically told the Flames and the people of Calgary, "Screw you." Third, Feaster thought we'd get a king's ransom for Bouwmeester and hung onto him until the last minute and (while it's well-documented I don't like JayBo) the Flames should have done better on that deal. Burke was working for Anaheim last year during the draft, and he CLEARLY acknowledged that that the Duck's scouting staff felt the Flames had the best draft last season out of all the teams involved.

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#54 DragonFlame
June 22 2014, 04:15PM
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@DragonFlame

Finally, Jeff in Lethbridge, if you do a little math, you might come to the conclusion that BT's dad is worth somewhere around 600 million dollars. His son, Brad, really doesn't need the work.

So, tell me, why would a multi-millionaire's son leave a good gig in Phoenix if he was only going to be a "shadow" GM here, which would be a sideways' move?

You worry way too much.

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#55 Kevin R
June 22 2014, 04:24PM
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DragonFlame wrote:

Finally, Jeff in Lethbridge, if you do a little math, you might come to the conclusion that BT's dad is worth somewhere around 600 million dollars. His son, Brad, really doesn't need the work.

So, tell me, why would a multi-millionaire's son leave a good gig in Phoenix if he was only going to be a "shadow" GM here, which would be a sideways' move?

You worry way too much.

One thing many aren't mentioning when they are Burke bashing & making Feaster a victim. Rangers just dumped a huge pile of $$$ on Brad Richards of which, Flames Feaster actually offered him more $$$ in the wheel barrel than the Rangers did. I don't think Murray Edwards would have been too happy about writing that buyout cheque.

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#56 Rockmorton65
June 22 2014, 04:39PM
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I've said it before and I'll say it again. It would be hilarious if the two Sams went 1-2 and Edm had to choose between Ekblad and Draisaitl, knowing they would be giving us the other one. I'd love to watch MacT and Lowe sweat it out on national tv with Burke smiling in the background. Good times.

That being said, it'd be sweet if we could move up to 1OA without selling the farm.

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#57 Jeff In Lethbridge
June 22 2014, 05:00PM
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DragonFlame wrote:

Jeff, you might want to consider a tinfoil hat. First, who will argue that Feaster almost single-handedly killed any hopes the Flames had of a re-build when he didn't know enough about the rules regarding ROR? Second, Feaster and Flames' fans got screwed by Jarome Iginla when Feaster didn't get Iggy to commit on paper where he would go, and Iginla basically told the Flames and the people of Calgary, "Screw you." Third, Feaster thought we'd get a king's ransom for Bouwmeester and hung onto him until the last minute and (while it's well-documented I don't like JayBo) the Flames should have done better on that deal. Burke was working for Anaheim last year during the draft, and he CLEARLY acknowledged that that the Duck's scouting staff felt the Flames had the best draft last season out of all the teams involved.

you must be WW

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#58 DragonFlame
June 22 2014, 05:05PM
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Well, for those of you convinced that Burke is running the show and only likes BIG players, please look at the guys drafted AFTER Nazim Kadri in the 2009 Draft:

This is all from Hockey DB:

7) Nazim Kadri 6.0 188 8) Scott Glennie 6.1 200 9) Jared Cowen 6.5 230 10) Magnus Paarjarvi-Svenson 6.3 208 11) Ryan Ellis 5.10 179 12) Calvin de Haan 6.1 187 13) Zack Kassian 6.3 214 14) Dmitri Kulikov 6.1 196 15) Peter Holland 6.2 185

So, let's see . . . seven players are taller than Kadri and 5 players are heavier.

Damn, why didn't Burke draft Jared Cowen or Zack Kassian?

Career numbers between Kadri and those two "truculent" individuals:

Kadri: 113 points in 177 games Cowen: 33 points in 158 games (okay, he's a D) Kassian: 5o points in 156 games

I reiterate, those of you who insist Burke will do nothing but undermine the scouting staff and the consensus of some very smart hockey people (because he doesn't like "flag football") and will tell his staff it is, "Ritchie or no one," are so out-to-lunch it's laughable.

If it's Ritchie, I assure all of you that it is the consensus of a lot of people who are well-paid and know a lot more about hockey than you and I ever will.

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#59 DragonFlame
June 22 2014, 05:05PM
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Jeff In Lethbridge wrote:

you must be WW

You must be an idiot

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#60 Jeff In Lethbridge
June 22 2014, 05:07PM
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Kevin R wrote:

One thing many aren't mentioning when they are Burke bashing & making Feaster a victim. Rangers just dumped a huge pile of $$$ on Brad Richards of which, Flames Feaster actually offered him more $$$ in the wheel barrel than the Rangers did. I don't think Murray Edwards would have been too happy about writing that buyout cheque.

My point was: Feaster, when in charge, made the decisions, now Burke is in charge... and therefore will have his stamp on decisions.

Your point was: Feaster made bad moves.

your point does not disagree with mine, in fact it supports my point. Yet you launch into childish antics and name calling. You must be WW who, as everyone knows, has multiple personalities. Nobody else would bother to attack me when they are actually in fact reinforcing my point.

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#61 DragonFlame
June 22 2014, 05:15PM
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Jeff In Lethbridge wrote:

My point was: Feaster, when in charge, made the decisions, now Burke is in charge... and therefore will have his stamp on decisions.

Your point was: Feaster made bad moves.

your point does not disagree with mine, in fact it supports my point. Yet you launch into childish antics and name calling. You must be WW who, as everyone knows, has multiple personalities. Nobody else would bother to attack me when they are actually in fact reinforcing my point.

You are attacking people the minute you compare them to WW.

Were I WW, my grammar and punctuation would leave something to be desired.

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#62 Jeff In Lethbridge
June 22 2014, 05:19PM
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DragonFlame wrote:

You are attacking people the minute you compare them to WW.

Were I WW, my grammar and punctuation would leave something to be desired.

OK, I believe you... :-D

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#63 Jeff In Lethbridge
June 22 2014, 05:35PM
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I just noticed that the Flames opener is on wed the 8th: I just happen to be flying into Calgary that day and could take in the game with my dear wife... if someone has tickets they aren't going to use... or a couple extra spots in their box... hit me up! :-D :-D :-) :-) :-D :-D

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#64 Alt
June 22 2014, 05:58PM
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@Jeff In Lethbridge

Everyone knows WW has multiple personalities? I didn't know that!

How dare someone with multiple personalities attack you!

You with your impeccable pronunciation and grammar.

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#65 Alt
June 22 2014, 06:03PM
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DragonFlame wrote:

You are attacking people the minute you compare them to WW.

Were I WW, my grammar and punctuation would leave something to be desired.

Get over yourself!

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#66 Jeff In Lethbridge
June 22 2014, 06:37PM
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Alt wrote:

Everyone knows WW has multiple personalities? I didn't know that!

How dare someone with multiple personalities attack you!

You with your impeccable pronunciation and grammar.

Maybe I should reword that to read "multiple profiles" ;-)

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#67 Ed Wailin'
June 22 2014, 06:39PM
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I'm hoping for the player that can do the most pull ups at 4... ;)

In all seriousness though, I hope they keep 4 (price for ekblad is too high) and get another in the top 20. With those hopefully get Reinhardt/Draistl and Ritchie/Virtannen, take some risks with the rest of the picks, and then make a run at Fayne or Stralman to shore up the d. I also think there is some real potential to fleece TO in there somehow as well, gardener would be nice.

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#68 DragonFlame
June 22 2014, 06:54PM
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@Alt

As you are all convinced a "blowhard" like Burke cannot possibly right the "good ship Flames," allow me to introduce to you one Ken Dryden, a rather articulate individual *who knows a thing or two about winning Stanley Cups (let alone he's a best selling author).

Ken Dryden lasted two whole years.

Following Mr Dryden were Pat Quinn (who looks good with a cigar in his mouth), John Ferguson Jr (I guess he had a famous dad, but he wasn't particularly good at running a hockey team), Cliff Fletcher (I expect the Leafs were hoping Cliff could reenact history and pillage the Flames on a five-for-five trade).

Then there was Brian Burke, left to deal with the mess the Leafs' bureaucracy left behind.

So, Burke doesn't kiss butts and he rubs some people the wrong way. He managed to do some good things for a team operated by a bunch of politically correct teachers otherwise known as the OTPP.

Burke did not mess up the Leafs. The Leafs messed up the Leafs. That is what happens when a team goes public and hands over the reins to people who know nothing about hockey but think it's okay to spend millions on railway technology that is doomed (see Railpower) and hand out B's and C's to students who deserve D's and F's.

After all, the man works, backs up his mouth (most of the time) and the one organization he didn't improve (and that is open for argument) is so top heavy in political correctness (thanks to the Teachers Union) he never stood a chance.

I don't care if you hate Burke. But most of the trashing I see here is out in left field from a bunch of people who ought to consider a teaching profession in Ontario. *Sorry about the thing about winning Stanley Cups, it was in reference to Kevin Lowe

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#69 wot96
June 22 2014, 07:39PM
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If we are content with the Shelbyville Strategy for a year, Calgary does trade a top six forward and an asset or two, whether picks or players, for a second but later first round pick. That second first round pick probably won't play in the NHL next year and there is a good chance the first first round pick won't either.

Any scenario in which the Flames trade one of their better (or expensive) roster players for a later first round pick also involves having to spend more in free agency regardless of what they do with Cammy even if they keep some salary of whomever they trade. They would have to spend even more on some rebuild rentals if they don't resign Cammy.

With the roster the Flames have, some expect them to regress (though I'm not sure that happens if Johnny G is playing and the Flames resign Cammy). However, if the Flames regress, that would push Calgary into one of the top three spots next year, barring being torpedoed at the lottery. If Calgary trades a Hudler or Glencross and doesn't resign Cammy, I don't see them getting better.

In so doing, they might have a chance at the generational talent at the very top in 2015. Hitting the cap floor this year will be hard unless they keep salary.

So who's okay with regressing slightly to pick up better chance at a generational talent next year?

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#70 ?
June 22 2014, 07:52PM
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DragonFlame wrote:

Well, for those of you convinced that Burke is running the show and only likes BIG players, please look at the guys drafted AFTER Nazim Kadri in the 2009 Draft:

This is all from Hockey DB:

7) Nazim Kadri 6.0 188 8) Scott Glennie 6.1 200 9) Jared Cowen 6.5 230 10) Magnus Paarjarvi-Svenson 6.3 208 11) Ryan Ellis 5.10 179 12) Calvin de Haan 6.1 187 13) Zack Kassian 6.3 214 14) Dmitri Kulikov 6.1 196 15) Peter Holland 6.2 185

So, let's see . . . seven players are taller than Kadri and 5 players are heavier.

Damn, why didn't Burke draft Jared Cowen or Zack Kassian?

Career numbers between Kadri and those two "truculent" individuals:

Kadri: 113 points in 177 games Cowen: 33 points in 158 games (okay, he's a D) Kassian: 5o points in 156 games

I reiterate, those of you who insist Burke will do nothing but undermine the scouting staff and the consensus of some very smart hockey people (because he doesn't like "flag football") and will tell his staff it is, "Ritchie or no one," are so out-to-lunch it's laughable.

If it's Ritchie, I assure all of you that it is the consensus of a lot of people who are well-paid and know a lot more about hockey than you and I ever will.

Tyler Biggs

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#71 MonsterPod
June 22 2014, 08:05PM
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Nathan Horton went #3 overall a decade ago.

6'2" 229lbs.

What if Nick Ritchie is another Nathan Horton? Would you take him at #4?

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#72 DragonFlame
June 22 2014, 08:07PM
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? wrote:

Tyler Biggs

This was addressed by Burke somewhere here http://video.flames.nhl.com/videocenter/

To your comment, Biggs was 22nd overall, not a top five, six, or even a ten.

Biggs, at 22nd, has been no bigger a bust than most of the Flames' first round picks over the past ten years.

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#73 The Last Big Bear
June 22 2014, 08:17PM
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wot96 wrote:

If we are content with the Shelbyville Strategy for a year, Calgary does trade a top six forward and an asset or two, whether picks or players, for a second but later first round pick. That second first round pick probably won't play in the NHL next year and there is a good chance the first first round pick won't either.

Any scenario in which the Flames trade one of their better (or expensive) roster players for a later first round pick also involves having to spend more in free agency regardless of what they do with Cammy even if they keep some salary of whomever they trade. They would have to spend even more on some rebuild rentals if they don't resign Cammy.

With the roster the Flames have, some expect them to regress (though I'm not sure that happens if Johnny G is playing and the Flames resign Cammy). However, if the Flames regress, that would push Calgary into one of the top three spots next year, barring being torpedoed at the lottery. If Calgary trades a Hudler or Glencross and doesn't resign Cammy, I don't see them getting better.

In so doing, they might have a chance at the generational talent at the very top in 2015. Hitting the cap floor this year will be hard unless they keep salary.

So who's okay with regressing slightly to pick up better chance at a generational talent next year?

Yes, I think the Flames regress this year.

The only concern I have is whether or not this will impact the corporate culture we've seen that appears to be establishing itself in the Flames, of hard work and determination, and not-quittingness.

The 2013-14 season was a good one for me, better than the previous seasons in which the team finished higher in the standings.

How I view the 2014-15 will likewise have nothing to do with how they finish in the standings, and very little to do with whether or not they land Connor McDavid. It will depend on how it looks like the rebuild is going as a whole.

If you had told me last summer that Sven would be sent back to the AHL, and Monahan would be stuck in a major role all season as the Flames plummet into Oilers territory in the standings, I would have called that a failure, but in the end I'm happy with the season, because the rebuild as a whole looks like it is going well.

So I will take a holistic view on next season, and not fuss about standings, draft position, or certain players progressing or regressing.

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#74 Ianberg1
June 22 2014, 09:15PM
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I think the Flames stand pat in the draft order and take the top available player. I think there will be a surprising pick in a later round that generates more commentary here at FN.

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#75 Alt
June 22 2014, 09:18PM
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DragonFlame wrote:

As you are all convinced a "blowhard" like Burke cannot possibly right the "good ship Flames," allow me to introduce to you one Ken Dryden, a rather articulate individual *who knows a thing or two about winning Stanley Cups (let alone he's a best selling author).

Ken Dryden lasted two whole years.

Following Mr Dryden were Pat Quinn (who looks good with a cigar in his mouth), John Ferguson Jr (I guess he had a famous dad, but he wasn't particularly good at running a hockey team), Cliff Fletcher (I expect the Leafs were hoping Cliff could reenact history and pillage the Flames on a five-for-five trade).

Then there was Brian Burke, left to deal with the mess the Leafs' bureaucracy left behind.

So, Burke doesn't kiss butts and he rubs some people the wrong way. He managed to do some good things for a team operated by a bunch of politically correct teachers otherwise known as the OTPP.

Burke did not mess up the Leafs. The Leafs messed up the Leafs. That is what happens when a team goes public and hands over the reins to people who know nothing about hockey but think it's okay to spend millions on railway technology that is doomed (see Railpower) and hand out B's and C's to students who deserve D's and F's.

After all, the man works, backs up his mouth (most of the time) and the one organization he didn't improve (and that is open for argument) is so top heavy in political correctness (thanks to the Teachers Union) he never stood a chance.

I don't care if you hate Burke. But most of the trashing I see here is out in left field from a bunch of people who ought to consider a teaching profession in Ontario. *Sorry about the thing about winning Stanley Cups, it was in reference to Kevin Lowe

I don't like or dislike Burke! Nor do I pretend to know what he might be thinking.

IMO he has had success at trading players in the past, which is where a GM needs to have success and appears to know how to sign contracts.

I don't buy into all the hype that Burke will play the autocrat and dictate to his underlings who they can or can't draft.

Burke knew what he was walking into when he signed with Toronto (centre of universe)just like the rest of the optimistic fools before him.

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#76 ultrathinzigzags
June 22 2014, 09:22PM
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if the Flames trade down from their highest draft position ever I will make a baby Oiler in my shorts

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#77 KH44
June 22 2014, 10:45PM
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My prediction: we will keep the pick, if its a Sam at fourth we take them, if not, its Dal Colle.

With the first, fifth and maybe a couple other top ten picks available, it could be a wild draft and its going to be fun.

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#78 McRib
June 23 2014, 11:33AM
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@DragonFlame

Agree completely, Top. 10 Picks (Nazim Kadri, Morgan Reilly) are very different than 22nd Overall picks (Biggs) in an average year. Burke showed twice in Toronto that when he had a high first rounder (a most likely surefire NHL player) he took the most skilled player on the board.

It's funny everyone criticizes Burke for that Biggs pick, but at the time Biggs was a consensus first rounder and was excepted to go in that range. Also that was a very weak draft year and many of the picks right after Biggs are looking like busts as well (Joe Morrow, Matt Puempel, Phillip Danault, Zack Phillips, Nicklas Jensen, etc). You can hand pick a couple second rounder’s that look great (Boone Jenner, Brandon Saad, etc), but a lot of teams passed on them after Toronto as well and there were things keeping those guys from being consensus first rounder’s on draft day (mediocre skating, inconsistent play) that those two fixed in the next few seasons and rewarded the teams for taking a chance on them. But Boone Jenner was not a first rounder by anyone on draft, Brandon Saad was a Top. 10 to start the season, but by the time the draft day rolled around he was a second rounder on almost every NHL Teams board.

When Calgary says they have a consensus Top. 5, I really think they are talking about Michael Dal Colle not Nick Richie. It just seems like they are trolling the media with Nick Richie. I really don't see us taking him and if anything Brian Burke has learned with Tyler Biggs pick that size isn't everything in evaluating talent. Not to mention AGAIN that Michael Dal Colle is 6'2"+ anyway.

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#79 Franko J
June 24 2014, 12:15AM
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Plenty of good comments.

I agree with most bloggers at FN that it is better to stay the course at 4, take whoever out of the top 4 and make some trades to compliment or enhance our our other picks in the draft.

Building a contender takes more than one good draft. Last season Monahan, this year who knows, next year, too far off. Not since the 1980's has this team drafted any quality, legitimate, bona fide prospects in the system. Yes rebuilding or retooling is painful and it sometimes hard to take, but I would rather see the management do it the right way and build a team that will constantly compete for chance at the Cup, rather than a team that has one good run in the last 24 years.

The only way to do it is through the draft and developing homegrown picks.

Picking at 1, 4, or 24 doesn't guarantee anything, however, hopefully choosing the right player to compliment the current core group and developing them properly sure does help make a rebuild a little easier to the end goal of winning the Cup.

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#80 dotfras
June 24 2014, 10:49AM
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I'd love to see us get a couple more picks in rounds 2-4. The general consensus is that this year is a weak draft, which means that these picks could potentially carry less value in the eyes of GM's. Our scouts have done a great job over the last few years finding guys after the first round (Brodie, Gaudreau, Granlund, Gillies, Wotherspoon).

There is a ton of diversity in where different scouts/orgs have players ranked. It would be nice to have a few extra picks to give us more chances to find later round talent.

Is there going to be any 2/3/4 round coverage on the site, as to potential targets?

Ben Thomas is a guy that stands out for me. Plays for the Hitmen. Good size and offensive upside. AND he shoots right!

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