Flames in Free Agency - Potential Paths

Kent Wilson
July 01 2014 10:06AM

different-paths1

The Flames are entering the free agent season with the most cap room in the organization's tenure in the cap era. As a result, the Flames have probably the most flexibility for rookie GM Brad Treliving ever - at least from a budgeting perspective. 

The club needs to spend more than $10M in cap space just to make the cap floor. On the other hand, they have over $25M if they decide to spend to the ceiling. They can pursue every big whale in the UFA pool if they so choose or they can decide to be as low risk and frugal as possible. And everything in between.

Here's three ways things may go down for the Flames this summer...

The Go For It Option

The Flames have enough money to decide they want to sign all the big guns and make a go of it. Calgary isn't going to be the first destination of choice for most of the available name brand UFA's, but if they drive a dump truck full of money up to guys like Thomas Vanek, Mike Cammalleri, Paul Stastny, Matt Moulson, Matt Niskanen, Anton Stralman or Christian Ehrhoff, there's a fair chance at least a couple of them would go for the long-term overpay. 

Here's how that could play out:

Cammalleri (6.25M) - Stastny (6.5M) - Vanek (7.0)

Glencross (2.55M) - Backlund (1.5M) - Hudler (4.0M)

Colborne (900k) - Monahan (925k) - Jones (4.0M)

Bollig (1.25M) - Stajan (3.125M) - Bouma (750k)

McGrattan (750k)

Brodie (2.125) - Giordano (4.02)

Niskanen(6.25) - Russell (2.6)

Wideman (5.25) - Smid (3.5) 

Ramo (2.75M)

Hiller (2.5M)

Total - 68.5M

Benefits: You potentially shortcut the rebuild and get the Flames back to competitiveness sooner rather than later. This probably isn't a championship squad, but its one that might hang around the middle the Western Conference if Ramo + backup can provide a decent level of goaltending. 

Risks: All those flashy new names are going to cost a lot in both money and term (assume 6+ years for each) and you're mostly paying for what they've done than what they're going to do. Vanek, Stastny and Cammalleri are quality NHLers, but they're going to get paid more than they're worth this off-season due to the paucity of options on the market. In addition, their on-ice value is likely to shrink moving forward.  

Cap space isn't a concern right now, but a couple of years down the road when guys like Monahan, Backlund and Brodie will be looking for a raise (not to mention whoever amongst the hopefuls makes the grade - Baertschi, Granlund, Gaudreau, Wotherspoon, Bennett, etc), things will get a lot more complicated. Brodie and Monahan, at minimum, are good bets to see significant raises. 

Furthermore, if this gambit doesn't make the team anything more than mediocre, the Flames would be back in the same situation they were when Sutter left - an expensive, middling squad saddled with big money and limited flexibility.   

The Powder Dry Option

In contrast the Flames could choose to go the complete opposite direction and only dole out as much as they have to to stay cap compliant. If possible, the deals would be either big and short, or moderately long and cheap - the goal would be to ice a respectable roster that maintains the clubs high degree. 

Here's how that roster might look:

Cammalleri (6.25) - Backlund (1.5) - Hudler (4.0)

Glencross (2.55) - Monahan (925k) - Colborne (900k)

Gaudreau (925k) - Stajan (3.125) - Jones (4.0)

Bollig (1.25M) - Knight (900k) - Bouma (725k)

McGrattan (750k)

Brodie (2.125) - Giordano (4.02)

Gilbert (3.75) - Russell (2.6)

Wideman (5.25) - Smid (3.5)

Wotherspoon (.925) 

Ramo (2.75)

Hiller (2.5M)

Total: $55.22M

In this plan the Flames still retain Cammalleri (or a big FA signing) because it's going to take a least one fair sized contract to get the Flames over the cap floor. Aside from that, the team could pick up a useful extra piece like Tom Gilbert for about 3 years to plug a hole in the blueline and then ink a Hiller-like back-up. 

Benefits: This lineup is a lot less expensive and retains much of the club's budget flexibility heading into the future. There's also a couple of open roster spots for Gaudreau/Knight/Baertschi/Reinhart/Granlund to fight for, yet enough veteran presence to not expose the kids to the tough minutes too early on most nights. 

Risks: This club would struggle to be competitive. All of the heavy lifting will be done by Backlund/Brodie/Giordano again and just a few injuries means a roster filled with fringe players and rookies. 

The Contract Dumping Ground Option

This is where the Flames would have to get creative. Instead of chasing free agents in order to get to the cap, Calgary could instead accept bad deals from cap strapped clubs in exchange for a sweetener. Boston, Philly, Pittsburgh and Toronto are just three of the teams who may be looking for some quick cap relief, for instance.  

Here's how that could play out:

Lupul (5.25) - Backlund (1.5) - Hudler (4.0)

Lecavalier (4.25) - Monahan - (925k) - Colborne (900k)

Glencross (2.55) - Stajan (3.125) - Jones (4.0)

Bollig (1.25) - Knight (900k) - Bouma (725k)

McGrattan (750k)

Brodie (2.125) - Giordano (4.02)

Boychuk (3.27) - Russell (2.6)

Wideman (5.25) - Smid (3.5)

Wotherspoon (.925) 

Ramo (2.75)

Hiller (2.5M)

Total: $54.84M

Benefits: The Flames add some more assets (assuming they are "paid" to take bad deals) and they don't have to go running after UFAs. The club would also be somewhat competitive, though not a legit playoff team. 

Risks: Adding washed up malcontents probably isn't the best thing for a dressing room (though Boychuk would be more of a legit addition than Lecavalier or Lupul, who would have to be pushed out of the door by their current teams). In addition, the deals to the two forwards in this example extend for a longish time, making their addition riskier.

Conclusion

While each of these scenarios was presented as stand-alone options, it's possible the reality will be somewhere in between. Maybe the Flames sign Niskanen or Stralman to a long-term, big money deal because they fit into the club's future plans and then add a salary dump from Philly or Boston to round things out.

Whatever happens, we know the club will be active to some degree. The NHL rules will compel them to spend money this summer. The question just remains how they plan to do that.

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Former Nations Overlord. Current FN contributor and curmudgeon For questions, complaints, criticisms, etc contact Kent @ kent.wilson@gmail. Follow him on Twitter here.
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#101 ?
July 01 2014, 11:59AM
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Treliving/Burke have done a good job today. Short-term deals that have a low-risk, high reward type feel, makes a lot of sense.

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#102 365
July 01 2014, 11:59AM
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Hillar = Roman Turek mkII?

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#103 Burnward
July 01 2014, 12:00PM
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@Kevin R

Bet ya it's Gillies in two years.

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#104 mattyc
July 01 2014, 12:03PM
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Flames still need a Dman. Wonder if they're looking at Cody Franson.

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#105 Willi P
July 01 2014, 12:06PM
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mattyc wrote:

Flames still need a Dman. Wonder if they're looking at Cody Franson.

Yes they do but luckily they didn't pull a TML and sign a 37 year old Robidas to 3 years.

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#106 Jeff Lebowski
July 01 2014, 12:07PM
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Where are the defencemen CGY desperately needs?

Doesn't need to be today but ...

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#107 RKD
July 01 2014, 12:12PM
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@dotfras

Havlat signs in NJ, so now the Devils have Cammy and Havlat to join the likes of Zajac, Ryder, Jagr, Elias, Henrique. Lou's trying to fill the goal scoring void left by Kovy.

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#108 ?
July 01 2014, 12:13PM
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Willi P wrote:

Yes they do but luckily they didn't pull a TML and sign a 37 year old Robidas to 3 years.

Yea, that move makes very little sense. Reminds me of when the Oilers signed Khabibulin to that 4 year contract a few years ago.

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#109 dotfras
July 01 2014, 12:21PM
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Iggy to Colorado. Great fit I think!

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#110 RKD
July 01 2014, 12:22PM
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Iginla signs with Colorado, the Flames will see him a ton!

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#111 ?
July 01 2014, 12:22PM
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Iggy to COL

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#112 Kevin R
July 01 2014, 12:34PM
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Delzotto may be a decent fit here. Wonder how much to get him & if he would come here. No one mentioning his name. Would fit the 3-4 slot & I wouldn't be opposed to acquiring Franson either.

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#113 RKD
July 01 2014, 12:40PM
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Stralman gets 5 years in Tampa, he's joining Garrison on the back end.

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#114 Hockey fan 1976
July 01 2014, 12:44PM
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Dallas and Colorado definitely clear winners on day 1 today. Good for Iggy...he's exactly what they needed there :)

The West just got harder to play at and no light in sight for teams like Soilers to make the playoff anytime soon.

LA Chicago St. Louis San Jose Colorado Dallas Anaheim Minnesota.

Your top 8 for the next 2-3 more years.

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#115 Glenn
July 01 2014, 12:48PM
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Looks pretty tough in the west. Florida gets better. Can we finish 29th to give us a shot a 1 or 2 pick? Have to look for a silver lining.

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#116 Jeff Lebowski
July 01 2014, 01:03PM
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What, exactly is the blueprint Burke speaks of?

Two lines to score or three?

Even if you follow LA - it means 3 lines to score. What direction is this team going? I think the can still follow the 3 scoring lines but is that their plan?

Two lines to score - 2 lines to fight?

Remember, minimum 2 enforcers.

All we need now is Randy Carlyle and that kind of hockey. Is that the plan?

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#117 mattyc
July 01 2014, 01:15PM
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I really hope the flames aren't signing Engelland. His stats suckkkkkkkkk

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#118 JJ
July 01 2014, 01:18PM
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mattyc wrote:

I really hope the flames aren't signing Engelland. His stats suckkkkkkkkk

Get used to it...

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#119 dotfras
July 01 2014, 01:18PM
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Engelland for 3 at 2.9 per?

Initial reaction is yuck.

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#120 mattyc
July 01 2014, 01:20PM
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dotfras wrote:

Engelland for 3 at 2.9 per?

Initial reaction is yuck.

incomprehensible

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#121 dotfras
July 01 2014, 01:23PM
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So I guess this means Wideman is playing second pairing.

Brodie Gio

? Wideman

Russel Engelland

Yikes.

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#122 Jeff Lebowski
July 01 2014, 01:24PM
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3 lines to score - Byron

2 lines to fight - Bollig

Are you not entertained?

Please convince us otherwise BT. PLEASE !!!

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#123 ?
July 01 2014, 01:25PM
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@dotfras

I think Russell will play 2nd pairing with Russell, with Smid and Engelland as the 5-6 guys

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#124 MC Hockey
July 01 2014, 01:31PM
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? wrote:

I think Russell will play 2nd pairing with Russell, with Smid and Engelland as the 5-6 guys

Russell with Rusell?

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#125 Colin.S
July 01 2014, 01:31PM
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Absolutely BRUTAL signing. They just bought out the exact same kind of player in SoB. After the first two signings I thought they might have done well, but then this. Overpay for truculence/toughness, they are giving a guy who's barely a capable 6th defender 3/4 money.

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#126 dotfras
July 01 2014, 01:34PM
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@?

Oh yah forgot Smid.

So essentially zero upgrade on our Blueline.

But Hiller will stop more pucks.

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#127 ?
July 01 2014, 01:35PM
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@MC Hockey

lol, maybe he's just that good :)

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#128 etownman
July 02 2014, 10:23AM
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RKD wrote:

Oilers sign Aulie, Fayne, Pouliot. If they don't add a center, I guess they are expecting Draisital to play as the #2C, if the Nuge gets injured then they have an 18 year old center with no depth behind them.

MacT isn't done yet. Also, still a rookie but Draisaitl turns 19 in October. Probably used a lot like Couturier was in Philly.

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