2015-16 Reasonable Expecations: Johnny Gaudreau

Byron Bader
September 12 2015 12:00PM


After the undersized Gaudreau was drafted he continued to get better and better at Boston College.  In his 3rd and last season at Boston College, he put up offensive numbers not seen in over a decade and was universally considered the Flames' best prospect.  Finally he joined the Flames in the 2014-15 season as a full-time NHLer and appears to be the superstar everybody hoped he would be.

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FN's All-Time Greatest Flames Team: Hakan Loob

Byron Bader
September 09 2015 03:00PM


Hakan Loob, a name synonymous with the Flames of the '80s. He was the ultimate fan favorite, adored by the entire Flames fan base.  He was only a member of the Flames for six seasons but left his mark on the organization and is an obvious choice for FN's All-Time Greatest Flames Team.

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FlamesNation Prospect Profile: #11 Kenney Morrison

Byron Bader
August 21 2015 01:00PM

FlamesNation11

Coming in at #11 on FlamesNation's annual top 20 prospects rankings is newly signed free-agent defenseman Kenney Morrison.

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FlamesNation Prospect Profile: #12 Andrew Mangiapane

Byron Bader
August 20 2015 01:15PM

FlamesNation12

Coming in the #12 spot on FlamesNation's annual prospect profile rundown is 2015 6th round selection Andrew Mangiapane.

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Predicting Future NHL Scoring Success with NHLe Thresholds & Related Factors

Byron Bader
July 17 2015 12:00PM


NHL Equivalency (NHLe) is a formula used by some in the hockey analytics community to normalize scoring rates in different prospect feeder leagues. The object of finding a similar "score" for players across different leagues is to help project future NHL scoring/performance. It’s a method developed by Gabe Desjardins of behindthenet.ca a number of years ago and has been expanded upon by hockey analytics pioneers like Rob Vollman and Kent Wilson. Here's Gabe's original piece to give you a context if you're not fully versed in NHLe.

Previously, I looked at draft year NHLe and forwards drafted in the first round from 2005 to 2010. In that investigation, I found that of players who had scored a career 0.6 PPG or higher in the NHL (approximately 50 points or more a season) 22 of 32 in total had an NHLe of at least 34 in their draft year.  

In fact, of all the first round forwards who had an NHLe of 34 or more in their draft year, only five hadn’t scored at a rate of 0.6 PPG or higher in the NHL to that point, though all had already made the NHL. While draft year NHLe provides certain insights, I was curious how you could project future impactful point producers (0.6 PPG or higher) overall, beyond the 1st round and beyond a player’s draft year equivalency.  

The following analysis provides insights into the following questions:

  • Are there differences between players who score a high equivalency in their draft year compared to later on? 
  • Do elite scorers tend to hit certain NHLe thresholds (e.g., 30+ or 40+) more often and/or more frequently than average, replacement-level scorers and busts?
  • What impact does age have in hitting an equivalency threshold and future NHL success? 

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