What To Do At The Draft?

RexLibris
May 18 2015 11:00AM

2014_nhl_combine_sam_bennett_053114

The Calgary Flames are drafting 15th overall this year followed by back to back picks at 52nd and 53rd overall from Washington and Vancouver, 76th and 83rd from Wasington, 136th, 166th, and 196th.

(Draft position courtesy of Wikipedia.com)

The team has some depth at center and on the left wing but needs to address depth on the right wing and, most importantly, defense. Goaltending prospect depth ought to be bolstered as well, but that can be saved for later round selections so we’ll leave off that topic for today. For our purposes we'll be focusing on the 1st round pick and the options provided by the three 2nd round picks.

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Calgary Flames Final Expectations Update

RexLibris
April 16 2015 11:00AM

   

Fair to say we all more or less guessed that this is where this Flames team would end up by season’s end, right?

It might be worth Brad Treliving making some calls about upgrading the suspension system for the team bus with all the media jumping on the Flames’ bandwagon as this season has worn on.

Whether they made the playoffs or not, one would have had to look very, very hard to find a complaint about the way the season rolled out.

But the Flames are in and the only Canadian teams on the outside looking in right now are the Oilers and Leafs so I can only imagine the warm and fuzzy feelings that elicits in the hearts of Flames fans right now.

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Jeff Petry and the Calgary Flames

RexLibris
February 11 2015 01:00PM

So here it is. I think the Calgary Flames should trade for Jeff Petry. What’s that I hear you say?

“Here we go, another Oilers fan trying to pawn off dysfunctional players on the Flames”

No, not at all. In fact, quite the opposite.

Let’s start by taking a look at the player and see if we can gauge where he fits on the Oilers and then try to translate that to comparable players around the league, adjusting for team differences. Once we’ve done that we can then see if he would translate as a net gain for the Flames were he to be added.

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How're Those Flames Doin' Anyway?

RexLibris
January 27 2015 09:00AM

Previously I had updated my estimates for the Flames season originally posted back when the season began. Feel free to look back and compare, the original is broken into forwards, defense, goaltending and rookies and the first update here, but I will be including the previous estimates in the Big Wall of Numbers below.

To begin the year I had guessed the Flames would finish somewhere between 25th and 21st overall in the standings, that the team would score approximately 206 goals for, would have strong underlying possession numbers relative to their underwhelming roster, and with solid goaltending from Hiller would probably win a few more of the one-goal games they had lost the previous season.

The first update, posted one-third of the way into the 2014-2015 season, showed that those estimates were conservative in some areas (scoring) and incorrect in others (possession strength).The Flames have been the beneficiaries of some extraordinary luck so far this season and I honestly believe that Bob Hartley's aggressive system, simple to execute and suited to a team with speed, has found fertile ground with the Flames' roster. All that aside, the Flames are an outlier on the scale right now. They may carry this through to the post-season, they may not. We aren't talking Black Swan stuff here. Hartley and the Flames haven't disproved the entire body of hockey analytics, but neither has their extraordinary season regressed on the timetable that some had believed. Sustainable? No. Due to crash like a Eurozone debt default? No again.

Analytics is best used as a diagnostic tool. Let's let this season close and we'll look back to discuss then. In the meantime, man enjoy the ride!

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Flames Expectations First Update

RexLibris
December 08 2014 08:30AM

At the beginning of the season I took a look at the Flames and ran some numbers like sh%, ppg pace, historical games played and the like. Using that information I estimated the number of games played, estimated sh%, sv%, and so on for the Flames players.

Most times we stop at the quarter-points of the season to assess a team. I’m choosing to stop at the one-third marker in order to provide a larger sample size and to try to bridge some of the borders that exists within a season, to blur the edges so to speak, so that the data may have a bit more applicability to the larger season rather than being a snapshot of the here and now.

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