Flames Projections: Secondary Forwards

Robert Vollman
October 18 2012 12:08PM

 

Every year we project how many points each of the players will score using a couple of different statistical methods, and why should a potential lockout season be any different?

If you're just tuning in, we explained our methodology in more detail in our first piece, which covered the top-six forwardsLast time we covered the defensemen and here in our third and final piece we'll look at the remaining, secondary forwards.

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Projecting Flames Defensemen Scoring

Robert Vollman
October 09 2012 02:02PM

 

 

For the third straight year we're using statistical methods to project how many points each of the Calgary Flames will score.  In the first part, which you can read here, we look at their top-six forwards, as well as explaining our approach in a little more detail.

How did we do last year?  I'm glad you asked.  As you can read in last year's recap, “Calgary got the most out of low-cost depth pieces like Chris Butler, Scott Hannan, Derek Smith and T.J. Brodie, and ultra-high-cost depth piece Cory Sarich, but failed to justify the hefty contract awarded to Anton Babchuk. Mark Giordano's season didn't live up to his potential, and Jay Bouwmeester's performance, while predictable, is still well short of his Norris-level contract - at least scoring-wise.

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Flames Projections: Top-Six

Robert Vollman
October 08 2012 11:39AM

 

 

(Just in case there is actually some game action this year, Rob Vollman returns to FlamesNation with some player projections. We start with a look at the Flames top-6)

It was risky enough these past two years to publish scoring projections for each Calgary Flame using purely statistical analysis, but it's an even riskier proposition this year. If we lose the whole season then we'll have no idea how accurate our estimates were, and have even less information on which to base our projections next year. Even if the season starts late and they play fewer games, the luck inherent in the shorter season/smaller sample size could make our projections way off.

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Rating the Flames Defensively

Robert Vollman
May 07 2012 04:57PM

 

Measuring a player’s defensive contributions statistically is currently one of the most difficult things to do. You can’t just look at goals (or shots) against, because the great defensive players are up against the toughest opponents and in their own end, while the weaker ones are against softer opponents mostly in the opposing zone. Calculating for this is very challenging and even if you could, is there really a way to compare how effectively a player in one situation did relative to someone in another?

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A look at Flames even strength play: scoring chances, shots and Goals

Robert Vollman
April 30 2012 01:06PM

 

In every week's black box we saw how well the Flames fared with each individual player on the ice, in terms of attempted shots, scoring chances, and actual goals (here's the final weekly black box summary).  This week we'll take a look back and look at Calgary's even-strength data in a variety of ways, separating offense from defense and seeing with which players the Flames enjoyed the most success converting attempted shots to scoring chances, and scoring chances to goals, and with which players they were most successful preventing opponents from doing the same.

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