Rating the Flames Defensively
Robert Vollman
May 07 2012 04:57PM
Measuring a player’s defensive contributions statistically is currently one of the most difficult things to do. You can’t just look at goals (or shots) against, because the great defensive players are up against the toughest opponents and in their own end, while the weaker ones are against softer opponents mostly in the opposing zone. Calculating for this is very challenging and even if you could, is there really a way to compare how effectively a player in one situation did relative to someone in another?
A look at Flames even strength play: scoring chances, shots and Goals
Robert Vollman
April 30 2012 01:06PM
In every week's black box we saw how well the Flames fared with each individual player on the ice, in terms of attempted shots, scoring chances, and actual goals (here's the final weekly black box summary). This week we'll take a look back and look at Calgary's even-strength data in a variety of ways, separating offense from defense and seeing with which players the Flames enjoyed the most success converting attempted shots to scoring chances, and scoring chances to goals, and with which players they were most successful preventing opponents from doing the same.
Reviewing Flames Secondary Forwards Projections
Robert Vollman
April 24 2012 09:29AM
For two years now we’ve set pre-season individual scoring expectations for the Calgary Flames, using Tom Awad’s famed VUKOTA system, and our own Snepsts System to set worst-case, best-case and average scoring expectations for each player.
Reviewing Flames Defensemen Projections
Robert Vollman
April 19 2012 11:41AM
Calgary’s blue line was overhauled in the 2011 off-season. Absent for the first time since 1999 was Robyn Regehr, along with depth pieces Steve Staios and Adam Pardy, replaced with Chris Butler, Scott Hannan and Derek Smith.
To help set scoring expectations for Calgary’s blue line, and indeed their entire line-up, we used the Snepsts System of searching NHL’s long history for players with similar scoring totals, and using their following seasons as a basis for predicting how well each of today’s player would do in 2011-12. For each player we found players with similar historical scoring results to set high-water, low-water and average scoring results.
It’s one thing to publish your pre-season player scoring projections, but it’s another to circle back and see how you did. We started last week with a look at Calgary’s top-six forwards, for which we were probably 3-3, although we probably picked up the loser point in two of those losses.
This week we’ll look at Jay Bouwmeester, Anton Babchuk and Mark Giordano, followed by a look at the scaled down version we adopted for those of more modest scoring like Cory Sarich, Scott Hannan and Chris Butler. We’ll conclude with a look back at the AHL-to-NHL translations we used to predict scoring for those with limited NHL experience like T.J. Brodie, Derek Smith and the relatively unused Brett Carson and Clay Wilson.
Calgary's Role Changes
Robert Vollman
April 16 2012 09:11AM
Whose role changed the most from 2010-11 to 2011-12? You'd probably say Chris Butler, who went from Buffalo's depth blue line to Calgary's top pairing, or perhaps Cory Sarich and Matt Stajan, who went from useful secondary players to the depth lines.
