Flames Scoring Projections

Robert Vollman
November 24 2011 10:49AM

 

 

For the past couple of months we've been using the Snepsts System to search the NHL's entire history for players with similar era-adjusted statistics as our beloved Flames, and then basing projections on what happened to those similar players.  This week we're going to bring it all together and see what the final scoring totals may look like at year's end.

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Black Box: Week 7

Robert Vollman
November 21 2011 08:10AM

 

 

In today's NHL it's normally wise to keep scoring down. The lower the scoring, the greater the chance for shoot-out or overtime, leading to a lot more so-called loser points (plus a roughly 50% chance of a further point)  In fact, if you could arrange to end every regulation game tied you'd earn at least 82 points, plus likely another 41 from what is effectively a statistical coin toss, giving you 123 points and the President's trophy. All of sudden Guy Boucher's trap makes a great deal of sense!

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Black Box: Week 6

Robert Vollman
November 14 2011 09:10AM

 

 

Week six, and the Calgary Flames are tied for 25th over-all with the Anaheim Ducks and Carolina Hurricanes, ahead of just the Winnipeg Jets, the New York Islanders and the Columbus Blue Jackets. The main reason for having only the Jackets between  them and the Western Conference basement floor is having scored just 35 goals scored in 16 games – more than only the Ducks and Islanders.

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Know Your Fighters

Robert Vollman
November 13 2011 11:17AM

 

If you're going to have someone whose only purpose is fighting, they might as well be good at it.  The Flames have had goons like Andre Roy, Brian McGrattan, Krzystof Oliwa and Raitis Ivanans – some seriously bad dudes (and I don't just mean their hockey skills).

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Flames Comparables: Reserve Forwards

Robert Vollman
November 12 2011 07:19AM

 

 

This year we're using the Snepsts system to project how many points each of the Flames may score this year. The Snepsts system, explained over at Hockey Prospectus, searches history for players with similar statistics (adjusted for era scoring levels) and uses their future performance as yardsticks for today's.

We've already looked at most of the Flames key forwards and defensemen, and this week we'll look at some of their reserve forwards: Lance Bouma, Stefan Meyer, Paul Byron and Greg Nemisz.

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