April 24 2012 09:29AM
For two years now we’ve set pre-season individual scoring expectations for the Calgary Flames, using Tom Awad’s famed VUKOTA system, and our own Snepsts System to set worst-case, best-case and average scoring expectations for each player.
April 19 2012 11:41AM
Calgary’s blue line was overhauled in the 2011 off-season. Absent for the first time since 1999 was Robyn Regehr, along with depth pieces Steve Staios and Adam Pardy, replaced with Chris Butler, Scott Hannan and Derek Smith.
To help set scoring expectations for Calgary’s blue line, and indeed their entire line-up, we used the Snepsts System of searching NHL’s long history for players with similar scoring totals, and using their following seasons as a basis for predicting how well each of today’s player would do in 2011-12. For each player we found players with similar historical scoring results to set high-water, low-water and average scoring results.
It’s one thing to publish your pre-season player scoring projections, but it’s another to circle back and see how you did. We started last week with a look at Calgary’s top-six forwards, for which we were probably 3-3, although we probably picked up the loser point in two of those losses.
This week we’ll look at Jay Bouwmeester, Anton Babchuk and Mark Giordano, followed by a look at the scaled down version we adopted for those of more modest scoring like Cory Sarich, Scott Hannan and Chris Butler. We’ll conclude with a look back at the AHL-to-NHL translations we used to predict scoring for those with limited NHL experience like T.J. Brodie, Derek Smith and the relatively unused Brett Carson and Clay Wilson.
April 16 2012 09:11AM
Whose role changed the most from 2010-11 to 2011-12? You'd probably say Chris Butler, who went from Buffalo's depth blue line to Calgary's top pairing, or perhaps Cory Sarich and Matt Stajan, who went from useful secondary players to the depth lines.
April 11 2012 04:26PM
You see lots of player projections before the season begins, but how often do we take a look back to check their accuracy? While it takes guts to put your theories and predictions out there, it takes even more guts (or perhaps foolishness) to re-visit them after the fact.
April 09 2012 10:14AM
It's small comfort, but the Calgary Flames are the best non-playoff team for the third season in a row, save for being a single point behind Dallas in 2010-11. They had a better regulation record than the San Jose Sharks, but unfortunately random skills competitions are part of today's game and their 5-16 record were one of the many small things that did them in.