Matt Stajan is the poster boy for due diligence. Not because he was an excellent reward for it, but because he's an excellent example of not doing due diligence.

In the years since the now infamous Dion Phanuef trade, it's become widely reported that Darryl Sutter did not shop Phaneuf. He made two or three offers around the league, found a deal that was "good enough", and made it. He limited his options and and took whatever he could get. That, ladies and gentlemen, is not due diligence.

The Surface and Underlying Numbers

But would doing the research and putting time have prevented the unfortunate situation the Flames find themselves in with Matty Franchise today? Should the Flames have expected Stajan to utterly burn out? Or is there some mystery cause behind one of the worst contracts on the Calgary Flames? First, let's start with Stajan's boxcars.

Season	Age	Tm	Lg	GP	G	A	PTS	GC	+/-	PIM	EV	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI	ATOI
2002-03	19	TOR	NHL	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	100	11	11:00
2003-04	20	TOR	NHL	69	14	13	27	11	7	22	14	0	0	0	63	22.2	759	11:00
2005-06	22	TOR	NHL	80	15	12	27	11	5	50	8	3	4	5	83	18.1	931	11:38
2006-07	23	TOR	NHL	82	10	29	39	13	3	44	8	1	1	1	132	7.6	1324	16:09
2007-08	24	TOR	NHL	82	16	17	33	13	-11	47	13	2	1	3	127	12.6	1550	18:54
2008-09	25	TOR	NHL	76	15	40	55	19	-4	54	9	5	1	1	114	13.2	1287	16:56
2009-10	26	TOT	NHL	82	19	38	57	20	-6	32	12	7	0	4	132	14.4	1551	18:55
2009-10	26	TOR	NHL	55	16	25	41	15	-3	30	9	7	0	2	99	16.2	1033	18:47
2009-10	26	CGY	NHL	27	3	13	16	5	-3	2	3	0	0	2	33	9.1	518	19:11
2010-11	27	CGY	NHL	76	6	25	31	10	1	32	5	0	1	0	81	7.4	1081	14:14
2011-12	28	CGY	NHL	61	8	10	18	7	-3	29	8	0	0	1	77	10.4	794	13:01
Career			NHL	609	104	184	288	105	-7	310	78	18	8	15	810	12.8	9288	15:15

Stats from Hockey Reference

As you can see, Stajan was hardly a career 50+ point player. At the time of the extension he was nearing his second fifty point season, but two in a row isn't much of a trend. Prior to that Stajan had two seasons over 30 points and two under. Hoping for a repeat of 50+ points wasn't ludicrous, but it also wasn't a sure thing. Expecting between 30 and 45 points would be entirely more reasonable.

His point-per-game average in the current and two seasons prior to the extension was 0.61, which plays out to 50 points over an 82 game season. Not a superstar, but a quality player. After the contract extension? His play fell to a ghastly 0.39 points-per-game, which pro-rates to 32 points in an 82 game season. (As a note, I'm using the extension as the splitting point because his contract is the issue, but the reality is his play didn't fall off until after the 2009-10 season. His play with the Flames after the extension but before the off-season was exactly on par with the previous two seasons and change: 0.6 PPG).

So what changed? Why did his points-per-game fall by a third? First, let's check the fancy stats. 

Season	Off Zone Start %	Corsi Rel	On-Ice Sh%	PDO	QualComp Rank	P/60	TOI/60
2007-08	49.9	4.4	6.95	972	4	1.23	13.66
2008-09	53.2	1.6	10.32	993	2	2.42	12.39
2009-10*	54.6	1.2	8.71	980	N/A	1.93	14.44
2010-11	53	3.1	8.88	993	8	1.8	12.31
2011-12	48	4.8	7.37	992	10	1.3	11.36

A couple notes: I filtered players by limiting it to forwards with more than 30 GP.

On the QualComp Rank column: instead of listing QualComp, I list the rank as it is relative to his teammates in a given season. 0.1 in one season might be great and 0.1 in another season might be mediocre. Furthermore, 2009-10 isn't really available since he was traded and his numbers would be across two teams. In short, not a number I feel comfortable with.

Discussion

So what do we learn from the above table? Not much- he's always been a throughly mediocre possession player- on the plus side, but not by much. On-ice shooting percentage tells us very little as well. His BTN-era career average is 8.446, meaning his only significant outlier season, 2008-09, was off by only 1.874.

His zone starts tell a little bit of the story- his best two years were the two he had his highest zone starts, but there was minimal fall off in 2010-11 when his scoring fell off. Similarly, QualComp offers little help: he played the easiest competition in his worst years relative to his teammates. In some of his best years he played middling or difficult comp.

Finally, his rates per 60 minutes tell us little. The Points/60 column ranges from 1.23 to 2.42 and the Time on Ice/60 ranges from 11.36 to 14.44. Both of these would offer answers if Stajan's fall-off was minimal, but it's not.

The fancy stats show there was a bubble that was going to burst: his ice-time has lessened, zone starts slightly worsened, his on-ice and personal SH% both fell from his career years; but nothing really explains here the drop to his current level. The time is identifiable as the off-season between 2009-10 and 2010-11, but what actually happened to cause it at that time is completely ineffable with the information available.

Next I'll look at the chance for redemption and what it would take for Matt Stajan to play at an "acceptable" level.

1. Well there goes that

The search for a guy who will be in charge of coaching this team rolls on and, even without anyone making hires yet in the offseason, the field is thinning.

The latest casualty, Elliotte Friedman reports, is the guy many tabbed as the most likely candidate: San Jose coach Todd McLellan, who's staying put but likely getting a slew of new assistant coaches. That's too bad. McLellan has, in the past, done a pretty good job of managing a roster that was often made up of a healthy mix of both young and veteran players (for every Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle and Patrick Marleau, it seems, there's a Logan Couture, Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Joe Pavelski). This makeup is, obviously, not unlike the Flames'.

The problem with the NHL coaching fraternity, if you want to call it that, is that your options for replacing someone you fire — who leaves of their own accord? Dale Hunter and nobody, that's who — are often old retreads or NHL assistants who have quietly been making names for themselves for years. Not to say either is a bad choice, necessarily, but at some point you know what you're getting with whoever you hire, before you hire them, and so the rumors about guys that might or might not come to the city are easy to suss out as being either good or bad for the team as it's currently constituted.

Which is what makes the hire of Troy Ward to run the hockey club both intriguing and, apparently, more likely by the day. Puck Daddy had a big story earlier this week about Ward and the job he might do — very good? — with the team given its newfound and wise move toward a youth movement, relying heavily upon the guys Ward wrangled as an assistant last season and a head coach this year.

And I guess the more I think about it, the less jazzed I am to see the team bring aboard a guy like a Bob Hartley or Marc Crawford or whoever else's name has been trotted out in the time since Brent Sutter's ship was scuttled. I think I like Troy Ward for this job. Glowing testimonials aside, no one is going to have a better idea of how to handle the roster, and obviously the young guys, whose development is more important at this point than actually going somewhere in the standings, in particular. He'll know who's ready for such-and-such a role and when, and will be in a position to help them succeed.

People might say he's not ready — and perhaps my support for his hiring is predicated upon 1) my desire to "blow it up," and 2) my associated belief that the team can therefore lose all it wants and still be a-okay in my eyes — but the concern I have is that, like a Kirk Muller or Guy Boucher before him, some team will come in and snatch Ward up while Larry Robinson or whoever is on the second of a three-year contract and performing dismally.

As the PD story noted, it's not like players like Ward because he's easy on them. He isn't. He gets them to buy in with what is apparently disconcerting ease, and then gets them to play physically dominating and exciting hockey. Isn't that, like, what everyone said the Flames' problem was?

Look, I get that longtime NHL players like the Flames have on the roster aren't the Abbotsford Heat's mix of so-so rookies and AHL vets, but this is, at this point, their concerns shouldn't be the team's concerns. Don't like how Ward (or anyone really) is coaching? There's the door.

That went on far longer than I expected it to. I guess what I'm saying is Hire Troy Ward.

2. Sven Baertschi's future

We can all pretty much agree he's an NHL player at this point and will be with the big club to stay come October, right?

I was able to catch only the highlights of some of his games in the WHL Finals and he made the Oil Kings defenders look silly. FInishing these playoffs with 14-20-34 in 22 games doesn't seem particularly fair, but he's done playing against this soft competition. This time next year, he'll have a full season of playing against men under his belt.

Or at least, he should.

3. Karri Ramo and the goaltending situation

Two weeks ago in this space I wondered about the future prospects for Leland Irving, who, mere hours after I posted the item, spectacularly flamed out (no pun intended) in his attempt to regain the Heat's starting goaltender position in the playoffs. I found that curious but wasn't necessarily discouraged — it didn't, for certain, preclude him from being the backup with the big club after toiling in the minors for parts of two seasons.

But then there was word from the World Championships, carried over to this side of the globe by the Canadian Press and later, the Calgary Herald, that Karri Ramo would entertain thoughts of leaving the KHL to return to the NHL in a backup role. And now things are interesting.

On the one hand, Ramo was a bust of the highest order in his first try at North American hockey and has been hiding in the KHL, which is simultaneously the second-best pro league in the world and also a massive step down from the NHL. On the other hand, he has been a wall over in Russia.

In two seasons, he has a .925 save percentage and 1.96 GAA and that, I don't need to tell you, is unbelievable, even in a relatively low-scoring league. Does that translate here? Who knows? But it has to be seen as bad news for poor Leland Irving, who might be stuck riding the bus for another season or perhaps more if Ramo comes over and acquits himself well.

4. The last thing I'm going to say about shot-blocking

I know it's a new big thing to act like shot-blocking is ruining the NHL, but it is, of course, not doing that. In fact, I saw where the Hockey News said there were actually more shot blocks per game in last year's playoffs, widely considered to be exciting and cool and great because guys also punched each other with regularity.

All you need to know about what the "THIS IS AN OUTRAGE" crowd wants out of the league was tweeted a couple weeks ago by Kevin Paul Dupont, the Boston Globe columnist and Hockey Hall of Famer whose work got me into hockey writing in the first place when I was a way little tyke.

Tweet 1: Not unreasonable. 

I want a game that highlights, not hides, Alex Ovechkin.

— Kevin Paul Dupont (@GlobeKPD) May 1, 2012

That is, I think, something everyone can get behind.

Tweet 2: A head-scratcher.

I want a game in which goalies stop 80 percent of shots, not 90 percent.

— Kevin Paul Dupont (@GlobeKPD) May 1, 2012

This, at least, addresses the actual problem seen in the postseason: Goaltending is realllllllllly good. Everyone is good at it. If you want more offense, you have to restrict goaltenders' ability to make saves, probably by shrinking their equipment. But dreams of an .800 league-average save percentage? Based on the number of shots being taken in the league these days, doesn't that put us on pace for games to end 7-6 every night? Isn't that obscene and bad? Seems like it to me.

Tweet 3: Outrageous. 

I want a game in which PK squads get burned 30 pct of the time, not 20 pct.

— Kevin Paul Dupont (@GlobeKPD) May 1, 2012

This is perhaps even more unlikely than the save percentage demand, because in the modern era, the only teams that ever finished with 30-something save percentages were the 1970s Habs. Y'know, the best hockey teams ever assembled. And this is something he wants for the league average? Keep dreaming.

Tweet 4: Laughable.

I want a game in which 4 on-ice officials can capably, efficiently, oversee.

— Kevin Paul Dupont (@GlobeKPD) May 1, 2012

So in the end, what they want is physically impossible. Just so we're all clear and on the same page here.

5. One last quick question...

Is anyone else surprised that the Flames haven't come to terms with Mikael Backlund on a new deal yet? Just wondering.

In a move that could mean a lot or mean very little for the Flames, the Brandon Wheat Kings announced this morning that they are parting ways with head coach Cory Clouston, who has one year left on his contract with the WHL club.

In a media release, Wheaties general manager Kelly McCrimmon explained his rationale for the move.

I have given a great deal of thought to our coaching situation for the upcoming season," says McCrimmon. "I do not want uncertainty with this important position and as a result have decided we will not have Cory return next season.  He will perhaps have opportunities to coach professionally, failing that, we will honor the second year of his contract."

Clouston last coached in the National Hockey League in a rather uneven stint with the Ottawa Senators, who went 95-83-20 under his watch. He is no stranger to the Calgary Flames management group, who witnessed prospect Michael Ferland's progression under his tutelage and also saw his Wheat Kings bounce the Calgary Hitmen from this year's WHL playoffs (before beng swept in the second round by the eventual champions, the Edmonton Oil Kings).

The move comes as one NHL coaching job was filled, as the Blue Jackets elected to keep Todd Richards, and another opened up, with Dale Hunter leaving the Capitals. As of this writing, Calgary, Montreal and Washington are the only teams officially searching for a new bench boss, although that can easily change between now and the draft, particularly with the Edmonton Oilers still waffling on the future of Tom Renney with the club.

Among the more interesting mysteries surrounding the modern Calgary Flames can be found in its scouting ranks. Originally hired as an amateur scout in the summer of 1997 by then-general manager Al Coates, Tod Button soon moved up the ranks and became the head of Flames scouting in the fall of 2001. By sheer coincidence, the person who promoted him was his brother, Craig.

Now, despite being the primary consistent architect of what's been derided by hockey media folks as one of the weaker prospect bases in the league, Tod Button remains the head of Flames amateur scouting. Last summer's much-ballyhooed shake-up of the scouting department had one major impact on Button: he was placed directly underneath assistant general manger John Weisbrod (the new head of all scouting), but remained the head honcho of organizations drafting department.

To understand how, exactly, Tod Button still has a job with the Calgary Flames, let alone the same job he's had for over a decade, it's worthwhile to delve into his drafting record.

The Resume

Since he became head of amateur scouting in 2001, Button has overseen the drafting of 76 players at the NHL Entry Draft. If the measure of a scouting staff is how well they can find players that are able to make the jump to the professional ranks, then the best measure of Button's worth would be how many of those 76 have took the big step into the pro ranks.

To date, 37 of Button's draftees have turned pro with the Flames organization (including Sven Baertschi and Max Reinhart). That's 48.7% of drafted players. If you exclude the last two drafts, as those players are just becoming eligible for full-time pro hockey, then the “conversion rate” jumps to 53.8%. This isn't all that exciting a figure, as it indicates that just under half of all the players that Button drafted never played a single minute for any of its affiliated pro teams, including AHL and ECHL clubs.

That said, Button does seem to be in the midst of a very good tear in this respect, during which half of the drafted players have turned pro with the organization in 5 of 6 recent drafts.

• 2004 Draft: 10 players drafted, 6 turned pro (Kris Chucko, Brandon Prust, Dustin Boyd, Aki Seitsonen, Adam Pardy and Adam Cracknell)
• 2005 Draft: 8 players drafted, 7 turned pro (Matt Pelech, Gord Baldwin, Dan Ryder, J.D. Watt, Kevin Lalande, Matt Keetley and Brett Sutter)
• 2007 Draft: 5 players drafted, 3 turned pro (Mikael Backlund, John Negrin and Keith Aulie)
• 2008 Draft: 7 players drafted, 5 turned pro (Greg Nemisz, Mitch Wahl, Lance Bouma, T.J. Brodie and Ryley Grantham)
• 2009 Draft: 6 players drafted, 3 turned pro (Ryan Howse, Joni Ortio and Gaelan Patterson).

After reading this list of draft picks, an immediate thought is that there aren't a whole lot of big-time impact NHLers drafted under Button's watch. Outside of Dion Phaneuf, whom the organization openly coveted, Mikael Backlund represents the only first-round pick to crack the everyday Flames line-up. However, all the first rounders but Tim Erixon turned pro with the club (and Erixon was moved for Roman Horak, who did), while Pelech and Chucko struggled due to injuries sustained after they were drafted. Hard to blame Button for that, especially with the reputation Darryl Sutter had in terms of being hands-on with choosing first round picks.

The Late Show

It's probably the later rounds where Button has sang for his supper, so to speak. Brandon Prust and Adam Pardy became regular NHL players while Lance Bouma and T.J. Brodie are arguably everyday Flames roster players heading into next season. John Negrin and Dustin Boyd went pro and then were traded for decent assets – Akim Aliu for Negrin, and the draft pick used to select NCAA standout Bill Arnold for Boyd. Brett Sutter became a capable pro for such a late pick, then was used to help acquire a very underrated Tom Kostopoulos.

This is also ignoring Button's contributions over the past two drafts. With no first or second round picks in 2010, Button seemingly ran the show at the draft. He used six picks to bring in a bunch of players from different sources, including Max Reinhart and Michael Ferland, who both could contend for roster spots in Calgary in a short while. Late 2011 pick Laurent Brossoit was just named the MVP of the WHL's playoffs, while John Gaudreau was a point-per-game player in his rookie season in the NCAA.

And of course 2011 first-rounder Sven Baertschi, chosen when the Flames staff was instructed to “work their list” at the draft, played a handful of games for Calgary and had a dominant season in the WHL.

In short, it appears that Tod Button has a job because the failure of the Calgary Flames to draft well in the first round wasn't held against him. This may have been because the general manager was more involved in those  picks than in the later rounds, where Button's scouting staff found a number of players that turned pro and became useful NHL players or at least became assets that could be moved for other pieces of the puzzle. The positive results of the past two drafts probably haven't hurt his stock within the organization either.

The Portland Winterhawks fell to the Edmonton Oil Kings in game 7 of the WHL finals last night, ending what is likely one of the best seasons by any Flames prospect in the last two decades. Former 13th overall pick Sven Baertschi led the league in scoring in the post-season (34 points) and would have run away with the regular season title except for injuries and call-ups.

Back in February I looked at Baertschi's splits in terms of % of offense at even strength, power play and total team output. This is a quick way to determine whether a player is overly reliant on either the PP or on a strong team for his scoring. Here is how Baertschi's regular season shook out:

• Total points: 94
• Points-per-game: 2.0
• Even strength points: 54
• Power play points: 35
• Short-handed points: 5
• Total team offense: 222
• ES%: 60.7
• PP%: 39.3
• TEAM%: 42.3
• NHLE: 49.0

This is all good news. Baertschi is the first Flames prospect I have seen account for 40+% of the team's total scoring in his 18-19 year old season. Greg Nemsiz, in contrast, was at 25% as a teen for Windsor. Ryan Howse managed 33.4% of the Bruins offense in his season after being drafted, but only 50% of his scoring came at even strength.

Baertschi was a central figure in Portland's offense and he did most of his damage at 5on5. There are no red flags here.

Furthermore, Baertschi's NHLE (NHL equivalency) is the highest I've seen for a Flames prospect since I started calculating it a few years ago and is likely the highest amongst the 2012 draft class (Jonathan Huberdeau was close at 47.8). For those who are unfamiliar, NHLE is calculated by using a translation factor to determine how much offense in a given, lower league is "worth" in the NHL. Most decent forward prospects fall in the 30-35 range in terms of NHLE. Only the very best prospects tend to crest 45 as teenagers.

Conclusion

Sven Baertschi had the highest point-per-game rate in the CHL this season despite being a teenager. He was in on nearly half of his team's scoring while he was in the line-up and more than 60% of his offense came at even strength.

Pencil him onto the big club's line-up next year. This dude is ready for prime time.

It's been an unpredictable playoffs.  As it stands, 12 series have been concluded.  None of our entrants to date have pegged more than seven correctly, and our average is sitting between four and five.

For those wondering, here are the full standings:

Writer	Total Score	Percentage
~S~K~	7	58.3%
Beavis	7	58.3%
BigE91	7	58.3%
Cam Charron	7	58.3%
greenlightning86	7	58.3%
Horcsky	7	58.3%
Johe	7	58.3%
Koolaid drinker #33	7	58.3%
Oilers4ever	7	58.3%
schevvy	7	58.3%
Vintage Flame	7	58.3%
Bucknuck	6	50.0%
D	6	50.0%
david	6	50.0%
Dunnonuttin	6	50.0%
First Name Unidentified	6	50.0%
geoilersgist	6	50.0%
Jason Gregor	6	50.0%
John Cullen	6	50.0%
madjam	6	50.0%
Mantastic	6	50.0%
master of my domain	6	50.0%
Orange-n-Blue	6	50.0%
Wax Man Riley	6	50.0%
Alberto's dad	5	41.7%
Danny Gray	5	41.7%
DieHard	5	41.7%
EvanAllTogether	5	41.7%
ItsTheBGB	5	41.7%
Jonathan Willis	5	41.7%
Lowetide	5	41.7%
maimster	5	41.7%
Mason Storm	5	41.7%
Matt Stephen	5	41.7%
Oilerpride15	5	41.7%
Quicksilver ballet	5	41.7%
TLHansum	5	41.7%
Woodguy	5	41.7%
yawto	5	41.7%
Abby W.	4	33.3%
ashley	4	33.3%
Brett Mitchell	4	33.3%
Cam Davie	4	33.3%
Ern Beckett	4	33.3%
icedawg_42	4	33.3%
James	4	33.3%
Jeff Angus	4	33.3%
Justin Azevedo	4	33.3%
Kent Wilson	4	33.3%
Marda Miller	4	33.3%
Nate Sans Hate	4	33.3%
ncomas	4	33.3%
Number 44	4	33.3%
oilderrick	4	33.3%
Rob Vollman	4	33.3%
shanetrain	4	33.3%
Thomas Drance	4	33.3%
Tim in Kelowna	4	33.3%
Trentonl	4	33.3%
Wes Mantooth	4	33.3%
Colin	3	25.0%
dan	3	25.0%
Gitagrip	3	25.0%
gord962	3	25.0%
John Lofranco	3	25.0%
Oilers G	3	25.0%
Patrick Johnston	3	25.0%
Time Travelling Sean	3	25.0%
Tinfoil Tuque	3	25.0%
Wanyes bastard child	3	25.0%
Come join the Dark Parade	2	16.7%
Dawn	2	16.7%
everton fc	2	16.7%
Fight Club	2	16.7%
mark	2	16.7%
mayorpoop	2	16.7%
Ryan Fancey	2	16.7%
Ron Burgundy	1	8.3%
SLAM	1	8.3%

Worth noting: some people (especially those near the bottom) only got picks in for one of the previous two rounds.

Naturally, this much inaccuracy isn't going to prevent more guessing!

Round 3 Picks

Writer	PHX/LA	Games	NYR/NJ	Games
Cam Charron	LA	6	NYR	7
Danny Gray	LA	5	NYR	6
Jason Gregor	LA	6	NYR	6
Jonathan Willis	LA	6	NYR	6
Justin Azevedo	LA	6	NYR	5
Kent Wilson	PHX	6	NJ	7
Lowetide	LA	7	NYR	6
Matt Stephen	LA	5	NJ	7
Vintage Flame	LA	6	NYR	7

We'll be accepting entries in the comments until puck-drop tomorrow.

The hot topic this week was the launch of the Nation Network's newest project NHLNumbers blog. Derek Zona, Kent Wilson and others stopped by to talk about how the new site came to be as well as what readers can expect from it down the road. In addition, Ben Massey called in to talk the Oilers and Edmonton FC while Kent Simpson updates us on the Oil Kings playoff march.

This is Nation Radio.

Segment 1

First up is Cam Charron of Canucks Army and Backhand Shelf. Cam and Allan discuss NHLNumbers, advanced stats and the potential fate of Roberto Luongo.

Segment 2

Derek Zona of Copper 'n Blue and NHLNumbers shares his vision for the new project as well as his recent 2012 mock draft article and a defense of Sam gagner.

Segment 3

It's a double dose of Canucks writers, with guest number two being Canucks Army managing editor Thom Drance. Vigneault, Luongo and stats are the main topics.

Segment 4

Next, Nation Overlord Kent Wilson looks at the NHLNumbers launch in detail. He also compares Nail Yakupv to Taylor Hall.

Segment 5

Benjamin Massey of Copper 'n Blue joins to discuss Tom Renney, the NHL draft as well as Edmonton's football club.

Segment 6

Finally, we end with regular guest Kent Simpson, color commentator of the Edmonton Oil Kings. He and LT go over the Kings great season, Oilers prospect Martin Gernat and 20 year old players.

Full

The whole show.

Nation Radio would like to remind prospective advertisers and partners we still have some competitive sponsorship packages available. Please contact Kent.wilson@gmail.com for more details.

For the past couple of weekends, we have had open threads on potential trade scenarios regarding both Jarome Iginla and Miikka Kiprusoff.

Here are some of the suggestions from those threads:

Potential Iginla Trades

(via shutout)

To Detroit Red Wings : Jarome Iginla

To Calgary Flames : 2012 first round draft pick, Tomas Tatar, Xavier Ouellet

(via backburner)

To the Blues: Iginla, 14th overall pick, Irving

To the Flames: Halak, Rattie, and Oshie.

(also from backburner)

Ty Rattie and a top six (Berglund), or a first from St. Louis

Mark Stone and a first from the Sens OR

Dougie Hamilton and Krejci, or a first from the Bruins

(via Kevin R)

To Pittsburgh: Iggy, Backlund and Butler + 2012 3rd pick.

To Calgary: J Staal, roster player(salary back), 2012 1st rounder

Or

To Bruins: Iggy, 2012 3rd rounder

To Calgary: Kriejci, 2012 1st rounder, 2012 2nd rounder

smellofvictory combined the two with this -

Chicago (for Iginla + Kiprusoff): Frolik + Crawford + McNeill + Saad

Potential Kiprusoff Trades

(via sincity1976)

Option 1: Kipper (CGY) for (TOR) Schenn, Kadri, Reimer

Option 2: Kipper, Butler (CGY for (TOR) Gardiner, Komisarek, Kadri, 1st

Option 3: Kipper, Butler (CGY) for (CHI) Hjalmarsson, Saad, Frolik

Option 4: Kipper, Butler (CGY) for (CHI) Leddy, Crawford, Saad Option 3: Kipper (CGY) for (CHI) Olsen, McNeil, Frolik, Crawford

(danglesnipecelly was less ambitious)

Kipper and our 1st to TOR for Colborne and their 1st

Kipper to CHI for Bolland and a 2nd

(via shutout)

Kiprusoff to Toronto for 2012 2nd round pick from Toronto and Carter Ashton

Kiprusoff to Chicago for Crawford and McNeil

(via ChinookArch)

Option 1: Kiprusoff + TJ Brodie to NJ --- Andy Green & Adam Henrique to Calgary.

Option 2: Kiprusoff + #13 2012 pick to NY Islanders -- Mark Streit + #4 pick in 2012 draft

(via smellofvictory)

Chicago: Kiprusoff for Frolik and a 1st

Tampa Bay: Kiprusoff and a 3rd for a 1st and a 2nd

New Jersey: Kiprusoff for Jon Merrill

It was interesting to see how often Chicago cropped up in both scenarios. Other popular options were Pittsburgh and St. Louis for Iginla and Toronto and New Jersey for Kipper. The potential returns varied quite drastically, although almost everyone agrees the baseline return should be a top prospect or first round pick + a roster player for each.

I consider the Blues and Blue Jackets high level targets for the Flames when it comes to dealing Iginla and Kipper this year, although clubs like Chicago and Toronto make a lot of sense as well. The Blues are a good fit because they are one of the best teams in the West, have a lot of high-end young players and prospects (both of which the Flames need) but nobody like Iginla on the roster - an established vet who can still produce at a decent rate.

As for the Blue Jackets, it's obvious their greatest need is goaltending. In addition, Howson has proven the last year or so that he is desperate to do anything to get the team out of basement and willing to make big, headline-grabbing moves to that end. Trading a desperate man something he really needs is a good way to get a big return. If he can't land Luongo, his best bet is Kipper (since I can't see Harding or Vokoun choosing to sign there). A decent roster player + their first rounder this year for Kipper + Flames first rounder seems plausible to me.

In aggregate, if Calgary could get two roster players, a high-end prospect and a top-10 pick for Iginla, Kipper and the Flames own 14th overall pick...would you do it? Should Feaster if that is at all possible this summer?

Other topics:

• Should the Flames try to trade anty other major roster players? Bouwmeester for instance.
• Who are you starting to look at for the Flames first round pick this June?
• If you don't like Troy Ward as a pontential Brent Sutter replacement, who woould you prefer?
• How will you react if the Flames simply re-sign their pending free agents and go with status quo?

When the Calgary Flames announced that they were parting ways with head coach Brent Sutter, the hockey world was abuzz with speculation regarding what highly-touted coach would take over the job. Shockingly, among the names brought up was one that I was oddly familiar with from my two years covering the team – Abbotsford Heat coach Troy Ward.

Call it a gut feeling, but I firmly expect Troy Ward to be named Flames head coach within the next month.

It's a probable move for many reasons. The Flames brass chose him for the Abbotsford head coach position and he exceeded expectations, producing a proverbial Goofus and Gallant comparison between the complete buy-in in Abbotsford and the comedy of errors in Calgary.

The contrast becomes a bit starker when one realizes that despite being “devastated” by injuries and call-ups (as characterized by Flames general manager Jay Feaster at the post-mortem press conference), the Abbotsford Heat made the playoffs and had home ice advantage in the first round. Calgary? They're golfing.

It's also probably worth noting that Ward is the only coaching candidate that the Flames have publicly acknowledged.

AN EXPERIENCED CANDIDATE

Troy Ward has been a hockey coach for two decades. In addition to being a head coach in three different leagues, he's been an assistant coach and assistant general manager. He runs a hockey school. He's got a masters degree in sports administration.

He's got experience that goes beyond just being a "hockey guy".

THE GREAT COMMUNICATOR

In the process of putting together a profile on Ward for The Hockey Writers earlier this season, I spoke with nearly every single Flames player who spent time under him on the farm. None of them had a bad thing to say about him, and most of the players ranted and raved about the importance of structure and details on his team. Even Roman Horak, who had spent a single weekend in Abbotsford when I spoke with him.

Not only was Ward praised by his players for his strategies, but also for his ability to talk straight to them. Several players noted their respect for Ward partially stemmed from his willingness to speak honestly and clearly about what players needed to do to improve. Not coincidentally, the Heat produced a lot of NHL-ready players under Ward.

THE PROJECT MANAGER

Moreso than possibly any other Flames coach in recent memory, including head coaches, Troy Ward was able to manage a whole lot of wacky projects. His major issue was balancing the competitive edge of the club - helping the Heat win games - with the need to allow Flames prospects to develop into NHL-ready players by putting them in a wide array of situations. But Ward also had a few side projects:

Krys Kolanos made the Heat on a try-out, despite missing a year of hockey due to a hip injury. He still had a few of his old “offense-first” habits, though, and Ward spent the year trying to break them.

The Heat juggled four goaltenders over the year, including balancing ice-time for Leland Irving and the surprisingly strong Danny Taylor. He also worked around finding ice-time for Henrik Karlsson (on a conditioning stint) and Joni Ortio when both were on the roster.

Akim Aliu, he of a checkered reputation and boisterous energy, represents perhaps Ward's biggest triumph. Told to cut his hair and completely change his mindset upon arriving in Abbotsford, Aliu embraced two-way hockey to the point where he was given a call-up to Calgary at the end of the season.

THE GUTS TO DO IT HIS WAY

Arguably the single biggest positive about Troy Ward is his “my way or the highway” stance. Ward has a very specific notion of how his team should play and behave and, when players fall short of that benchmark, they get punished.

Ryan Howse remained overweight after training camp and was sent home for a month to learn about nutrition and dropped the weight. He re-joined the club and after toiling in the Heat's bottom-six for awhile, he was rewarded with spot duty in more offensive situations.

After a particularly lousy game from his club, Ward sat five veteran players (including AHL All-Star Kolanos) and barred them from the building for the next game. The move helped the Heat snap their losing streak at that point. Ward sat key players throughout the season and playoffs for poor performance, including both Aliu and Kolanos.

THE LOGICAL CHOICE

It's often said that the first step towards solving a problem is admitting that you have one. The Calgary Flames have a problem. They have missed the playoffs for the past three years and haven't won a playoff round in eight years. Moreso, their veteran core has been accused of floating and inconsistency under a bunch of different coaches.

With all due respect to Roger Millions' latest column for Sportsnet, where he noted that Calgary may not be the most enticing option for free agent coaches, I think he's missing the point. Bringing in another established NHL coach is a band-aid solution. It glosses over the systemic flaws in Calgary.

Bringing in Troy Ward not only sends a message to the NHL that the Calgary Flames are aware that they have a problem and are taking steps to solve it, but also tells the players the same thing.

Last off-season, we looked at why the Flames were mediocre in a series of posts. This year, I plan to discuss what significant challenges face them in their bid to stay competitive and not be dragged, kicking and screaming, into the dreaded rebuild.

The title image for the post comes from a study by Gabriel Desjardins, looking at the age at which production tends to peak in professional hockey players. Anyone familiar with the Flames roster should instantly recognize why this is bad news for Calgary heading into the new year.

To make the problem more explicit, I put together the club's roster from the recent season, including ages, cap hits, point totals and ice time:

As you can see, a large proportion of the team fell outside of the professional peak age. The 28+ year olds (that's the bad end of the curve) scored 83% of the points, ate up 73% of the cap budget and accounted for more than 70% of the ice time. In contrast, players near or entering peak age accumulated about 19% of the ice time and scored a paltry 14% of total points accounted for.

Unless something major happens in the summer, things aren't going to change drastically for the club next year. Roman Cervenka may help fill the big hole in the middle of the roster, but the only guys at or within two years of peak pro age are Mikael Backlund, Blake Comeau and Blair Jones (the latter two are both RFA's and no guarantee to be retained) up front. Of the three, only Backlund has a fair chance to play in the top-6.

On the back-end, the peak agers end with Butler and Smith, with Smith at 27 close to entering the decline phase (and a support player at best anyways).

What it Means

Obviously points-per-game isn't an exact proxy for player value. There are many highly functional guys who are 28 or older and frankly if the Flames were an elite club, this sort of accounting wouldn't be all that relevant.

The issue is the Flames most certainly are not elite and one can't reasonably look at Calgary's roster and expect significant improvement given the way it's constructed. Most of the money guys are beyond their peak years (some well beyond). It's unlikely that group will all suddenly devolve in lock-step, but the good bet is that they will get worse in aggregate. Time waits for no man and all that. And keep in mind, Calgary's #1 goalie is also 36 years old.

Only a small contingent of the club's roster is on the good side of the age curve and, unfortunately, many of them are bottom rotation guys at best. Cervenka, Butler and Backlund are the only three current players who might take a real step forward as impact pieces in 2012-13, while guys like TJ Brodie, Lance Bouma, Roman Horak and (likely) Sven Baertschi are youngsters who are probably a few years away from playing really meaningful ice time or producing meaningful results.

It's a tough situation to be in, with no obvious solutions. Doubtless this is the reason a portion of the fan base wants to clear the decks and rebuild. If Feaster and company don't want to take that route and still seek to keep the club competitive (or, even more difficult, make real improvements) the challenge they face is to somehow collect more top rotation players who are at or near peak age.