January 28 2015 09:00AM
About a month ago I wrote about the Flames' powerplay differential. In it, I spoke about how the Flames were excellent at drawing penalties while taking few on their own which was leading to them being up an advantaged player more often in games than their opponents. At the time, the Flames were second to Chicago in terms of their penalty differential and they now find themselves in first. As well, at the time of the article, the Flames were clicking at above 20% on the PP and since have dropped off a cliff.
January 27 2015 09:59PM
Tonight's Calgary Flames game was a bit sloppy and the team looked decent in fits and starts, but hardly a world-beater. They exchanged power-play goals in the first with the Buffalo Sabres. Neither team looked amazing.
Then the third period came and the Flames realized it was a tie game against the worst team in the league. Three goals later, the Flames skated away with a 4-1 victory and a much-needed two points in the standings.
Here's how it broke down.
January 27 2015 11:38AM
After five days without meaningful hockey, the Calgary Flames are back in action tonight as they begin their pursuit of their five playoff berth since 2009.
The back-half of their schedule begins with the Flames (25-19-3; 53 points) hosting the NHL's worst team, the Buffalo Sabres (14-30-3; 31 points) at the Scotiabank Saddledome. The Flames are rested and coming off a very successful road trip that saw them win four of five, all against divisional opponents. They cannot afford to take the Sabres lightly, nor can they afford to let any points slip away against an opponent they should be able to beat.
Long story short: the Flames better win this one, because after a short stretch of "easier" games (including visits from Minnesota and Edmonton later this week), the competition amps back up. If they can bank some points in the front end of this homestand, then they can give themselves a bit of breathing room in the Western Conference playoff race.
The puck drops tonight at 7pm MT and you can catch the action on Sportsnet West and Sportsnet 960 The Fan.
January 27 2015 09:00AM
Previously I had updated my estimates for the Flames season originally posted back when the season began. Feel free to look back and compare, the original is broken into forwards, defense, goaltending and rookies and the first update here, but I will be including the previous estimates in the Big Wall of Numbers below.
To begin the year I had
guessed the Flames would finish somewhere between 25th and 21st
overall in the standings, that the team would score approximately 206 goals
for, would have strong underlying possession numbers relative to their
underwhelming roster, and with solid goaltending from Hiller would probably win
a few more of the one-goal games they had lost the previous season.
The first update, posted
one-third of the way into the 2014-2015 season, showed that those estimates
were conservative in some areas (scoring) and incorrect in others (possession
strength).The Flames have been the beneficiaries of some extraordinary luck so far this season and I honestly believe that Bob Hartley's aggressive system, simple to execute and suited to a team with speed, has found fertile ground with the Flames' roster. All that aside, the Flames are an outlier on the scale right now. They may carry this through to the post-season, they may not. We aren't talking Black Swan stuff here. Hartley and the Flames haven't disproved the entire body of hockey analytics, but neither has their extraordinary season regressed on the timetable that some had believed. Sustainable? No. Due to crash like a Eurozone debt default? No again.
Analytics is best used as a diagnostic tool. Let's let this season close and we'll look back to discuss then. In the meantime, man enjoy the ride!
January 26 2015 03:15PM
The biggest news of the day throughout the hockey world was the Los Angeles Kings placing forward Mike Richards (and his $5.75 million cap hit) on waivers, presumably for the purpose of ridding themselves of his contract or burying it in the minors.
TSN's Bob McKenzie had an interesting bit of background on the Kings' move: