Looking At Corsi And Game-By-Game Results

Ryan Pike
March 13 2015 09:03AM

There's been a lot of discussion about puck possession lately, particularly how Calgary is succeeding despite some pretty awful metrics in that area.

With another game up tonight, let's take a gander at how, specifically, they're doing.

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The Roundup

Nation World HQ
March 13 2015 06:30AM


The Flames are not the Avalanche of last year, Kadri drama in Toronto, the perfect line combinations, player power rankings, leadership, the 2015 draft and more in this week's Roundup brought to you by Draftkings.

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Gaudreau Hits 50 Points - Let's Put It In Context

Ryan Pike
March 12 2015 01:00PM

Last night, wunderkind Johnny Gaudreau hit the 50-point mark by virtue of scoring a pair of goals in Calgary's 6-3 win over the Anaheim Ducks.

Gaudreau, who once was thought to be too small to play pro hockey, is the first Flames freshman to hit the 50-point plateau since somebody named "Jarome Iginla" back in 1996-67.

Where does this put Gaudreau all-time among Flames rookies with 15 games remaining?

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Why the 2014-15 Calgary Flames are not the 2013-14 Colorado Avalanche

Ari Yanover
March 12 2015 11:00AM

The comparisons are fair. This year's Flames is a garbage possession team, with an extremely poor 44.3% CF to go off of: third worst in the league. Last year's Avalanche wasn't so hot, either: 46.9% CF, sixth worst. With both teams spitting in the faces of corsi and possession metrics as a whole, the 2013-14 Avalanche ended up winning their division, while the 2014-15 Flames remain in a playoff spot with 15 games to go. Neither team was expected to do so well.

The Avs ended up losing in game seven overtime; really, a coin flip, but a first round loss nevertheless. This season, they're outside the playoffs, trying to look in. They're probably going to fail. Their statistics have dropped, leaving them at 43.5% CF, worse than the Flames.

This year's Flames fate has yet to be determined. They're right on the bubble. Next year's Flames fate is yet to be seen.

Does Treliving believe in analytics? His trade deadline performance showed he knows his team isn't a contender yet. Does he make off-season moves to improve Calgary's possession stats? Do those moves improve the team? Or will they end up falling, like the Avs?

I'd be willing to bet on the former. The comparisons are fair, but the 2014-15 Calgary Flames are not the 2013-14 Colorado Avalanche.

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5 things: Quantifying hard work

Ryan Lambert
March 12 2015 09:01AM

1. What are we talking about?

People do not like when I refer to the Flames as a "bad team." They tell me to look at the standings, because in sports, all people really care about is results. If a team could get away with being outshot every single night all season long — and by a margin that, say, as wide as what the Flames face on any given night — and still win all 82, then that would have been a good team. The process of how those wins are arrived-at matters not.

We know that this isn't how things work, of course, and we know that outshooting your opponent more often than not is a pretty good way of likewise ensuring that you win more often than not. The numbers back all of this up, and even those who for some unfathomable reason remain skeptical of the efficacy of evaluating hockey teams using things as simple as their corsi percentage over the course of 20, 40, 60, even 82 games would have to agree that the best teams have the puck more than the worst ones. It's a sliding scale, sure, and things don't always match up 1-for-1, but it's obvious that a good corsi share is key to a good record in far more cases than those for which the bad leads to a good record. We can all agree on this.

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