April 21 2012 09:16AM
It's time for that most contentious of sports writing activities: player grades/rankings! I've chosen to start things off with the Flames main forwards before we get into the support cast, back-end and goalies.
To grade the players, I used a mix of their results (both offensive output and underlying numbers) and my own subjective impressions from observation. I weighted thing by expectations and according to each guy's place on the roster and pay grade. Meaning, a fourth liners aren't going to be graded by the same criteria as first liners and vice versa.
So without further ado...the top sixers.
April 20 2012 11:00AM
If I were asked to put money on which of the big names will be moved from Calgary this summer, I'd have to bet on Miikka Kiprusoff.
It makes sense to move Kipper from a number of angles - he's coming off his best season in years (so his stock is high), his contractual NMC ends July first and he's a bad bet to have a repeat performance next year (he's 36 years old). Finally, Kipper's real salary drops to $5M next season and then to just $1.5M in 2013-14, thereby reducing the actual, financial risk to any interested trading partner.
April 19 2012 03:45PM
We did this in the middle of February previously, so I figured with all the regular seasons finished it was about time to update things.
For those who don't recall, "NHLE" is short for NHL equivalency, which is mathy way to compare prospects across different leagues. To get a kid's NHLE, you multiple his point-per-game rate by a "translation factor" based on the leagues quality relative to the NHL. The translation factors were originally determined by Gabriel Desjardins of behindthenet.ca fame.
April 19 2012 11:41AM
Calgary’s blue line was overhauled in the 2011 off-season. Absent for the first time since 1999 was Robyn Regehr, along with depth pieces Steve Staios and Adam Pardy, replaced with Chris Butler, Scott Hannan and Derek Smith.
To help set scoring expectations for Calgary’s blue line, and indeed their entire line-up, we used the Snepsts System of searching NHL’s long history for players with similar scoring totals, and using their following seasons as a basis for predicting how well each of today’s player would do in 2011-12. For each player we found players with similar historical scoring results to set high-water, low-water and average scoring results.
It’s one thing to publish your pre-season player scoring projections, but it’s another to circle back and see how you did. We started last week with a look at Calgary’s top-six forwards, for which we were probably 3-3, although we probably picked up the loser point in two of those losses.
This week we’ll look at Jay Bouwmeester, Anton Babchuk and Mark Giordano, followed by a look at the scaled down version we adopted for those of more modest scoring like Cory Sarich, Scott Hannan and Chris Butler. We’ll conclude with a look back at the AHL-to-NHL translations we used to predict scoring for those with limited NHL experience like T.J. Brodie, Derek Smith and the relatively unused Brett Carson and Clay Wilson.
April 19 2012 07:13AM
With Abbotsford in the AHL playoffs this year, I asked PbP voice and friend of the site Ryan Pinder to give us an insiders view of their upcoming first round series.
By Ryan Pinder
The Abbotsford Heat and Milwaukee Admirals are set to open a best-of-five first round Calder Cup Playoff match-up on Friday night in Milwaukee. The Heat enter the series as the fourth seed – five points above the fifth place Admirals - and have elected to open on the road for the first two games, before returning to the Fraser Valley to close out the remainder of series.