Expected Vs. Actual Save Percentage

Luongo

Gabriel Desjardins of behindthenet.ca does a study at the end of each season that attempts to measure difficulty of shots that every NHL goaltender faces. The methodology can be found here, and it’s an interesting look at a statistic that’s largely swayed by team ability.

His results for 2008-09 are out; here’s a look at Western Conference goaltenders this season (all numbers at even-strength, minimum of 30GP over the last two seasons):

Player Name | Expected SV%| Actual SV% | Difference

Nikolai Khabibulin | .902 | .927 | +.025
Roberto Luongo | .906 | .931 | +.025
Jonas Hiller | .906 | .927 | +.021
Pekka Rinne | .907 | .921 | +.014
Chris Mason | .909 | .923 | +.014
Steve Mason | .904 | .917 | +.013
Dwayne Roloson | .909 | .920 | +.011
Dan Ellis | .903 | .911 | +.008
Evgeni Nabokov | .907 | .915 | +.008
Ty Conklin | .908 | .913 | +.005
Josh Harding | .919 | .922 | +.003
Nik Backstrom | .919 | .921 | +.002
Curtis Sanford | .910 | .912 | +.002
Matheiu Garon | .906 | .907 | +.001
Ilya Bryzgalov | .911 | .911 | EV
J-S Giguere | .910 | .905 | -.005
Chris Osgood | .901 | .894 | -.007
Jason Labarbera | .912 | .905 | -.007
Marty Turco | .906 | .898 | -.008
Miikka Kiprusoff | .908 | .899 | -.009
Erik Ersberg | .914 | .904 | -.010
Andrew Raycroft | .916 | .900 | -.016
Peter Budaj | .915 | .896 | -.019
Manny Legace | .911 | .882 | -.029

Some other notables who played fewer games:

Jeff Deslauriers | .913 | .900 | -.013
Curtis McElhinney | .913 | .893 | -.020

No real surprises on that list; goaltenders having bad seasons end up near the bottom as well as the just-plain-bad goaltenders in the league.