A Look at the Flames Playoff Chances

 

 

It’s been a wild ride since the Flames bottomed-out in late December. Against long-odds, the club has ridden some bounces and strong play back into the post-season picture in the Western Conference. With just 12 games left on the schedule, the stretch drive looms on the horizon. Here’s a look at what the Flames will need to do to complete their resurrection.

The Calgary Flames are currently sixth in the official standings with 81 points in 70 games played. Matt Fenwick has them one game up on the playoff march in his Baseball style standings, while Quisp has the Flames on the cusp in 8th in his "real" standings. In short, despite Calgary’s incredible run since January, the team is still teetering on the edge.

No Western Conference playoff contender has played as many games as Calgary, nor have they won as many games in the shoot-out as the Flames. In fact, Calgary has the least amount of regulation/OT wins amongst the top nine hopefuls in the WC. What that means is the club is a good bet to lose the tie-breaker at the end of the year should they end up on even footing points-wise with any one else in the West. As such, Calgary must be the clear victor when the dust settles after game-82.

It’s a fairly tenuous position. Projecting final standings can be tricky, but here’s a look at how the WC will shake out should all the teams hold to their demonstrated points % through the rest of the year:

Flames slide into 8th alone with 95 points, which is about the cut-off we’ve been assuming all year. A 57.8% point ratio through the final 12 games relates to a record of about 6-4-2 or 7-5-0. Calgary can likely ensure themselves a place in the dance with seven wins or more in their final 12 games. 

Here’s how the sched. looks from here on out:

VAN – L

PHX – W

COL – W

ANA – L

LOS – W

SJS – L

EDM – W

ANA – W

STL – W

COL – W

EDM – W

VAN – L

I’ve penciled in some "reasonable expectations" given the quality of the opponents. If the Flames can sweep the weaker sisters, beat LA and split with Anaheim, they’re in like Flint without having to worry about beating San Jose or Vancouver. They might have room to lose one to the Blues, Oilers or Avalanches of the world, but will then definitely want to avoid giving up points to, say, Anaheim as much as possible.

Of course, we all know what "reasonable expectations" are worth in the pressure cooker that is the Western Conference, so take this with a pinch of salt. Considering how this season has played out thus far, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Calgary’s post-season berth came down to that, final crucial game versus the Canucks.

  • icedawg_42

    reasonable expectations aside I’d LOVE to see the Flames win both against Vancouver, however unlikely. I only hope Vintage and Gange’s wild chants of “CHUD CHUD CHUD” can spur them on to victory tomorrow. I have to agree with Pat, I dont like a 1 vs 8 seed if it shakes out the way you’ve listed, but if it happens, I hope the Flames take enough of a toll on the Canucks so that they fall out of it before the conference finals. I agree with your shakedown for the most part, the two games im iffy on are the PHX and LA you have listed as Wins…hopefully at least a point out of them. Looks like about a 7-4-1 should do it!

  • icedawg_42

    Really Lamers you want us in the first round? I love how you guys forget that we DESTROYED you 7-2 in the libraryerrrrrrrrr I mean DOME. BTW WORST place to watch a game. Half your fans are to busy not cheering, while the other half are there just to be there. YIKES.

    Let’s say it is Flames vs Van round 1.

    Matchups:

    Bobby Lou Vs Kipper= Um no contest Bobby Lou. ONE gold medal and soon to be Veznia for this year.

    D- I’ll give the Flames a slight edge here because your 4=6 are better than ours, but our 1=3 are steller!

    F= Iggy Vs Daniel= Um Daniel he’s going to win Art Ross

    Henrik vs Brendan Morrison- BAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Kesler Vs Jokinen- BAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Burrows vs Tanguay- I’ll take our Alex anyday.

    Raymond Vs Stajan- Can you say OVERPAID MATTY

    Mule vs MOdin- No contest I’ll take Sammy

    Higgins Vs Glencross= I’ll give you that one

    Torres Vs Jackman= Raffi is a Flames killer

    IN short Van would win in 5.

    As for Saturday Van 8 Calgary 2.

    • SmellOfVictory

      I’d say the Flames’ D have an edge in their top 3 (although Edler is pretty good).

      As far as forwards, I have some disagreement with you: Tanguay is better than Burrows, Raymond/Stajan is a wash because Raymond has been pretty crap this year as well, and although D. Sedin is certainly performing better in the regular season than Iginla, Iginla has a history of being a playoff monster.

      If a playoff series between the two teams were played a million times, Vancouver would probably win 70%+ of those series. However, all it takes is a couple of bad nights for Van or a little good luck for Calgary and they beat your team.

  • Matty Franchise Jr

    My take on this is that you’ve got to round down when doing these things.

    13.886 points in the remaining 12 games isn’t 14 points, it’s got to be counted as 13.

    This means that the Flames projected final points is 94, or the same as Anaheim.

    Either way, we probably won’t know who we’re playing in the playoffs, or if we’re playing in the playoffs, until the very last minute.

  • I can just see it now. Flames in 5th place to end the season, or even 6th, then bounced out due to tie in points and losing all tie breakers.

    What a heart break that will be. My liver will be drowned in ethanolic beverages should that occur.

    And Luongo isn’t going to win the Vezina. Tim Thomas probably will, so boo hoo Vancouver, another lost trophy.

    • Canucks Suck

      I think that guy is serious business. The flames could probably compete with any team in a 7 game series if they could get all for lines rolling of course if the playoffs don’t make that happen I don’t know what will.

      Tim Jackman in the playoffs, if we make it this guy is going to be a force to be reckoned with.