# Flames Scoring Chances and Goals ratios

In a comment in the post below, Tach asked if I could share the raw scoring chance totals so they could be related to actual goals scored. I’ve added that info to this article, after which we can go through and investigate some of the implications.

Here’s how things shook out up front:

FORWARDS CF CA %CF GFON GAON G% Finish% Opp Finish%
J. IGINLA 430 371 0.537 69 63 0.523 0.160 0.170
A. TANGUAY 354 301 0.540 64 57 0.529 0.181 0.189
O. JOKINEN 302 288 0.512 40 53 0.430 0.132 0.184
M. STAJAN 273 244 0.528 43 40 0.518 0.158 0.164
C. GLENCROSS 269 237 0.532 43 40 0.518 0.160 0.169
R. BOURQUE 262 300 0.466 36 49 0.424 0.137 0.163
M. BACKLUND 222 179 0.554 31 27 0.534 0.140 0.151
N. HAGMAN 220 209 0.513 30 29 0.508 0.136 0.139
B. MORRISON 213 206 0.508 38 28 0.576 0.178 0.136
T. JACKMAN 182 153 0.543 25 20 0.556 0.137 0.131
D. MOSS 162 125 0.564 30 21 0.588 0.185 0.168
T. KOSTOPOULOS 144 143 0.502 27 30 0.474 0.188 0.210
A. KOTALIK 83 68 0.550 7 14 0.333 0.084 0.206
C. CONROY 30 22 0.577 3 4 0.429 0.100 0.182
S. MEYER 21 20 0.512 5 5 0.500 0.238 0.250
Total 3167 2866 0.525 491 480 0.506 0.155 0.167

The table is sorted from most chances for (CF) to least for each Flames forward. The other columns are chances against (CA), scoring chance ratio (%CF), goals for (GFON) and goals against (GAON) while on the ice, goals ratio (G%), the rate at which chances for translate into goals for (finish%) and against (Opp finish%).

Of course, this is all just even strength info.

The Flames chance for rate for the forwards goal for-against ratio (50.6%) trailed their chances for-against ratio (52.5%) at even strength this year. Ignoring he players with less than 50 events (Conroy, Meyer), it’s interesting to see how players varied around the mean. Of note:

– In many ways Kotalik isn’t a great hockey player, but the dude has been crapped on by lady luck recently. Especially this past year where the Flames finish% on their chances with him on the ice was 8.4% (!!), while the oppositions finish % was 20.6% (!!). I don’t have much time for Kotalik as a player, but unless he was routinely firing pucks in his own net, I think it’s reasonable to suggest really, really bad bounces for that dude.

– Other guys who were siginifcantly below the team mean in terms of finishing: Tim Jackman (13.7%), Mikael Backlund (14.0%), Rene Bourque (13.7%), Olli Jokinen (13.2%) and Nik Hagman (13.6%).

– On the other hand, some guys who enjoyed better than average finishing: Alex Tanguay (18.1%), Tom Kostopolous (18.8%), David Moss (18.5%) and Brendan Morrison (17.7%). Guys who were scored on at a greater than average rate were Kostopolous again (21%!!), Jokinen (18.4%) and Tanguay (18.9%).

Now for the defenders:

DEFENSEMEN CF CA %CF GFON GAON G% Finish% Opp Finish%
J. BOUWMEESTER 458 428 0.517 62 65 0.488 0.135 0.152
M. GIORDANO 419 340 0.552 56 60 0.483 0.134 0.176
C. SARICH 323 301 0.518 49 40 0.551 0.152 0.133
A. PARDY 109 89 0.551 21 17 0.553 0.193 0.191
S. STAIOS 129 133 0.492 26 20 0.565 0.202 0.150
R. REGEHR 357 360 0.498 56 55 0.505 0.157 0.153
A. BABCHUK 209 214 0.494 49 39 0.557 0.234 0.182
Total 2004 1865 0.518 319 296 0.519 0.159 0.159

The overall chance (51.8%) and goal (51.9%) ratios matched pretty closely for the defenders, but there was some wild fluctuations between individuals.

– The second unluckiest guy on the back-end in terms of finishing was Bouwmeester with 13.5%, which partially explains his crappy offensive totals.

– Whats more surprising is by the far unluckiest guy on the blueline (and perhaps amongst regular skaters) was Mark Giordano. His CF% was a team high 55.2% for defenders, but his G% was just 48.3%. His finish% was a team low 13.4% and the opposition scored on about 17.6% of their chances while he was on the ice. Imagine the season Gio would have had if the bounces hadn’t have gone against him.

– Babchuk is the polar opposite of Giordano. His chances% was meh (49.4%) but his g% was sky-high (55.7%), owing largely to a team best finish% (23.4% !!). That number was nearly 10% above the clubs average finish% for regular defenders, which is a big red flag (with "regression is imminent!" scrawled across it). In case you were tempted to claim his hard shot was the reason for the improved finish%, consider that #2 and #3 on the blueline by the same metric are Steve Staios (20.2%) and Adam Pardy (19.1%).

### Other

– Again, this is ES only.

– Keep in mind the "totals" for each table aren’t actually totals because each event isn’t discrete to each player. Many of Iginla’s chances for/against and goals for/against occured with Tanguay for example, etc. Flames actually generated 1081 individual scoring chances at ES in 79 games this past season, while allowing 1001. At 5on5, those numbers were 1044 and 946 respectively.

– Not all goals for or goals against were actually counted as chances (since flukes and random shots from the outside sometimes squeak through), so both f% and opp f% are somewhat inflated. It could be these sorts of goals that are skewing the results for the luckier/unluckier players to some degree as well.

– Some guys have been exlcuded for obvious reasons: Bouma, Nemisz, Mikkelson, Carson.

• Kent Wilson

Some of the disparity between players’ CF/GFON ratios could probably be explained by which line they’re on, non? I would assume that bottom-6 guys are, on an individual level, going to tend toward a lower shooting percentrage than top-6 guys, bringing down the numbers of people playing with them (thinking of Backlund, for example, who I think suffered in terms of points/60 as a result of being on the 4th line with guys who aren’t exactly offensive dynamos).

• Kent Wilson

This is awesome and I hope to dig into this some too as there is tons of interesting stuff here – sleep is for babies, right?

• Kent Wilson

Yeah, there’s tons of stuff. Wait till we get to the WOWY analyses.

• Kent Wilson

I should note that correlation between SC% and G% of this particular sample (minus low event guys like Conroy, Meyers and Kotalik) was 0.416 which is solid but not outstanding.

• FireOnIce

It’s interesting to see players like Bouwmeester and Giordano are having their competition outscoring them. At least, this is what I assume from the Finish % vs Opp Finish %.

Giordano especially, because he always seems to bring his A game and rocks it against the lower quality competition. Players like Staios and Babchuk seem to have had better luck preventing goals against and helping goals for when they are on the ice, which I find hard to believe, having watched them play.

• Kent Wilson

They have better luck is the operative phrase. Giordano had the best outchancing ratio amongst defenders on the team, but pucks just didn’t go in at a high rate for whatever reason. Most likely variance.

From this sample of data, we can see a scoring chance translate to about a 16% chance of the puck going in the net. Unfortunately, randomness dictates that some guys will fall below that mean by chance alone.

This is the reason we talk about PDO (on-ice SV%+SH%). Everyone regresses towards the mean in the long run.

• Kent Wilson

Kent, that graphic at the top of the hockey rink, where is it from?