This year we’re using the Snepsts system to project how many points each of the Flames may score this year. The Snepsts system, explained over at Hockey Prospectus, searches history for players with similar statistics (adjusted for era scoring levels) and uses their future performance as yardsticks for today’s.
We’ve already looked at most of the Flames key forwards and defensemen, and this week we’ll look at some of their reserve forwards: Lance Bouma, Stefan Meyer, Paul Byron and Greg Nemisz.
Sitting next to a season Flames veteran in pre-season, Lance heard someone welcome him to camp with “You may be Bou-MA, but I am the Bouw-MEESTER.”
Ok that didn’t really happen. But it would be pretty cool if it did. Lance Bouma, Calgary’s 3rd round pick in 2008, played 16 games for the Flames, but under 6 minutes a game, and therefore scored just a single point.
He was more successful for the Abbotsford Heat, where he scored 20 points in 61 games. If you translate his AHL data and add his NHL scoring, that would work out to 7 goals and 6 assists for 13 points in 77 games, which actually isn’t bad for a 20-year-old.
If you search history there are 12 players with similar scoring at that age, but it’s mostly secondary guys like Aaron Gavey and Maxime Talbot. On the other hand, Adam Graves started off slowly with 12, 22 and 25 points before finally breaking out with 26 goals and 59 points at age 23.
We might have to wait a while before we know if he’s going to have a Gavey-type career, or bust out. The VUKOTA projection is 4 goals and 6 assists for 10 points in 33 games.
Stefan Meyer, Florida’s 2nd round pick in 2003, played 16 games for Calgary last season after just 4 in his entire previous NHL career, scoring only 2 points thanks to a lousy 7 minutes and 45 seconds a game.
If you translate his AHL scoring to an NHL equivalent and add his limited NHL experience, here’s the sort of NHL career the 26-year-old would have had thus far.
Season GP G A PTS 2005-06 68 6 8 14 2006-07 63 6 5 11 2007-08 74 10 10 20 2008-09 65 9 11 20 2009-10 67 6 4 10 2010-11 58 6 5 11
Comparable players who made the AHL to NHL jump include Troy Bodie, Chris Porter and Cody McCormick. VUKOTA’s projection calls for 4 goals and 5 assists for 9 points in 31 games.
The tiny Lord Byron was acquired as part of the recent Regehr/Kotalik salary dump, and scored 2 points in 8 games as a 21-year-old in Buffalo last season. Here’s his AHL-to-NHL translation with those 8 games added in.
Season GP G A PTS 2009-10 57 7 10 17 2010-11 75 11 11 22
VUKOTA projects 6 goals and 7 assists for 13 points in 30 games, which works out to over 30 points over a full season. Small players tend to stay in the AHL, but if his scoring is high enough he might get a look on the Flames.
Greg Nemisz, Calgary’s 1st round pick in 2008, played 6 games for them last season, scoring a point despite just 5 minutes per game. If you convert his AHL season to NHL equivalent and add those 6 games, he’d have 7 goals and 11 assists for 18 points in 74 games – okay for a 20-year-old.
Searching history there are 25 players that age with that scoring level, including coach Brent Sutter, who managed 63 points in 77 games the next season. While that’s not likely for Nemisz, players like Steve Tambellini, Jan Ludvig and Wayne Simmonds offer hope of a 30+ point season if given the opportunity.
All together his historical matches average 9 goals and 16 assists for 25 points over a complete 82 game schedule. VUKOTA calls for 5 goals, 7 assists and 12 points in 28 games.
Raitis Ivanans, Guillaume Desbiens and Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond.