With the draft starting tonight, I had some assorted thoughts that seemed to be worth sharing. Most of these won’t fill out a full article, but merited more than a Tweet.
- This is a strange draft- there’s a drop from Yakupov as the #1 pick to the next four (Forsberg, Grigorenko, Murray, Galchenyuk), and a much bigger drop after that where most of the prospects have minimal differences
- A couple of the prospects after the top five are talented, but not at the "significant difference maker level". Guys like Faksa, Teravainen, and Dumba are probably better than the rest of the top 15ish, but not significantly.
- Even then, it’s really anyone’s guess what will happen this draft. Things like Grigorenko-gate, Galchenyuk’s injury, and the abundance of defensemen from Murray to Pouliot will make this incredibly unpredictable.
- On the subject of all of that: I really don’t want the Flames to trade up unless they can get in the top five. There’s too much variance and chance between six and fourteen that you would only be gaining marginal value by trading up. I wouldn’t complain too much if the Flames ended up at six or seven and someone (*cough*Galchenyuk*cough*) slipped to that point, but to trade up for one of the defensemen seems a bit silly.
- On the subject of pick trading, I also don’t want to see the Flames trade down either- there’s a pretty decent difference between the top half and the bottom half of the first round, and I’d rather not see the Flames end up with a guy like Gaunce, who seems so limited in terms of actual skill when Girgensons is available
- Going back to the defensemen (and I posted this in the Pouliot article), there are an absurd amount projected to go between, well, 1st overall and 20th overall: Maatta, Pouliot, Ceci, Rielly, Dumba, Trouba, Murray, Lindholm, and Reinhart. While there are tiers, not everyone is agreeing where the tiers are at and who’s who. From the Oilers contemplating taking Murray at first overall to the interchangability of Maatta, Dumba, Trouba and Ceci in terms of ranking, this is ridiculous.
- This lack of clear separation and differentiation makes it abundantly clear that taking a defenseman would be a very very poor idea unless you can find one of the above guys in the 20s. You need discernable skills and differences in ability to take that chance- and I’m just not seeing it.
- On that note- I really really hope Edmonton takes Murray first overall.
- The main reason is it’s just such a poor idea. Nobody in the world thinks Murray is remotely as talented as Yakupov. That’s not to say he’s not good, but when you have a talent like Yakupov- you have to take it.
- The second reason is that it’d just make the draft absolutely insane. Every team probably has Yakupov going #1 and has planned accordingly- if that changes then everything changes. I imagine it would play out something like Jon Bois’ apocolyptic view of the world in which the Redskins selected Vontaze Burfect second overall at the NFL Draft
"With the fourth pick, the Cleveland Browns select … it just reads, quote, ‘any wide receiver, a good one, I don’t know.’ Let’s, um … let’s take this to mean Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech."
"With the fifth pick, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select a … does this say ‘rail car full of venison’? Yes. A rail car full of cured venison."
"With the sixth pick, the St. Louis Rams select a reason to love and laugh again."
Just imagine this playing out at the NHL draft:
"With the second overall pick, the Columbus Blue Jackets select… ‘Steve Mason but not bad Steve Maons’?’"
"With the third pick, the Montreal Canadiens pick… ‘a greasy bucketful of poutine with some stinky stanky cheese?’"
"With the 14th overall pick the Calgary Flames select- oh come on Jay, really? *sigh* The Calgary Flames select ‘Jarome Iginla but like ten years ago when he was really good and stuff so they never have to rebuild and life is happy again and we never have to worry about mean people on the internet’"
- Inanity aside, it would be fascinating to see the domino effect of a profoundly stupid selection *cough*Winnipeg*cough*. Columbus would get Yakupov, Montreal would have all sorts of options. The defensemen would probably go a lot faster due to a change in perceived value and guys like Faksa would fall more that you’d otherwise expect.
- On the list of stories and narratives I just really don’t care about- Grigorenko’s age is at the top. I just don’t care.
- Make sure you stop by for the live chat this afternoon. I’ll be on for all of it and I’m sure some of the other writers will to.