FN Weekend OPen Thread – Flames Roster in Three Years

 

 

One of the potential risks of the looming lock-out for the Flames (both team and fans) is the possibility Jarome Iginla’s final season in town will either be severely shortened or wiped out entirely. The club could eliminate that risk by re-signing the captain sooner rather than later, but that causes the org to step into a whole new minefield given his age and the uncertainty surrounding a new CBA.

Of course, we also don’t know if Iginla is even willing to re-sign in Calgary at this point.

With his career nearing its sunset, the team around him faltering and fresh uncertainties facing him about the labor agreement, Iginla may choose to wait things out and see what a new horizon brings come summer 2013. If the season is wiped out or, alternatively, if the Flames again fail to make the dance, Iginla would be entirely justified in looking beyond the borders of the only NHL team he’s ever known to experience life elsewhere as the inspirational vet or solid support player – and perhaps get a chance to win before he finally hangs up the skates.

With that in mind and considering the age of many of the club’s other money players, I began to wonder recently what the club’s roster would look like 3 years down the road. At that point, it’s entirely possible Iginla and Kipper will be gone, while 35 year old Alex Tanguay will start to slow down significantly. Jay Bouwmeester will likely be gone by then as well, which is either a good or bad thing depending on where you stand on the player.

The Flames only have 4 current major leaguers signed until 2014-15: Jiri Hudler, Dennis Wideman, Mark Giordano and Tanguay. Sven Baerstchi should be at least a sophomore by then and Mikael Backlund will be 25-26 and either a key cog on the team or traded. In net, it could be a combination of Karri Ramo and Leland Irving (or neither, because who knows with goalies). By then, Lance Bouma will probably be a regular 4th liner and Greg Nemisz…probably the same. Maybe Johnny Gaudreau or Mark Jankowski will be making a debut that year as well. Roman Cervenka might still be around if he manages to translate his game in North America. etc.

So get out your crystal balls Flames fans. Who sticks and is around in 3 years? Who are the club’s big guns? Who anchors the blueline? Who is stopping pucks?

 

  • xis10ce

    I couldn’t even hazard a guess as to what this team is going to look like, never mind who is the manager at that point.

    All I do know is that Cory freaking Sarich will still be here.

  • T&A4Flames

    I’ll take a crack at ‘er:

    Baertschi-Reinhart-Hudler/Granlund
    Gaudreau-Backlund-GlenX
    Ferland-Nemisz-Iggy
    Bouma-Jones-some skull-cracking enforcer

    Gio-Brodie
    Seiloff-Wideman
    Breen-Ramage/Wotherspoon
    some vet

    Ramo; Irving/Ortio (he’ll figure it out)

    Troy Ward- coach
    Weisbrod-Conny

    Pretty hard to guess as soooooo much can and will happen in 3 years. But, you have to think that a number of our prospects will make the jump by that point. I may try again after soem more thought.

  • SmellOfVictory

    Of the current guys I imagine Tanguay, Glencross, Cervenka, Hudler, Backlund, Bouma, Jbo, Gio, Wideman, Brodie, Smith will still be on the team (subtract 2 of the listed because there’s no way I could be 100% right). I expect Reinhart, Ferland, Baertschi, Arnold, and Gaudreau will all be on the team in some capacity as well.

  • SmellOfVictory

    We all know Iggy will still be the #1 winger in 3 years and we will still be looking for a centre to play with him. Oh, and Olli will somehow find his way back on the team. No idea how, but he will.

  • Reidja

    Well, if you want to really step out & crystal ball this thing, you would have to think the new arena would be ready by then. With the strong chance of fans getting totally choked about this media hyped battle of mind boggling money, Flames brass really need to think how they are going to get guys like me to want to keep shelling the $$$ to see this stuff & fill that new fancy building. Based on the last 3 years, I have been to a lot of yawners at the dome. So while these guys fight over the riches, peasants like me will be re evaluating whether I want to keep doing this. Would I pay to watch Baerschte & Gaudreau. Yeah probably. They represent some of the exciting hockey I am prepared to pay for. If Brass were smart they would sell almost everything to acquire the top 2 picks in this years draft so the likes of Mackinnon & Seth Jones, with Baerschte, Gaudreau, Jankowski & maybe a few other young guys that step up will be the headline to the new building. To do that they need to acquire 1st rounders, JBO, Iggy, Kipper, Cammi, doesnt matter where these 1st rounders are, we need several of them & then we package the GlenX & Tanguays & whoever we have to to get the top 2 picks. Then we start fresh clean, in a fresh new building. So to predict what our roster would look like in 3 years, dont think it can be done, but I could list the new core I can hope for:

    1/Brodie & Jones :)on the blueline

    2/Baerschte/Cerevenka/Mackinnon:)
    /Gaudreau/Jankowski/Backlund(has breakout year)

    3/Ramo/Broissault(?spelling)/Gilles

    Kent, I think by going thru the process of trying to see what the future will be in 3 years is a sombre wake up call confirming that we truly are at the end of an era. Maybe we should be getting ready for it now. I think I just got closer to the Wolfs blow this sucker up now mind set. 2013 draft may be a window of opportunity to bring a happy new era sooner than the current slow retool stratedgy currently being implemented.

      • Reidja

        I am certain that you made the comment about the projected Oiler line up with a bit of a smirk.

        Yes, I am a Flames fan, but I do acknowledge and recognize that the current Oiler roster and their system carries pretty good potential.

        The silent ticking time bomb for the Oilers, though Kent, is the fact that they will have a significant number of their current roster players reach the end of their entry level contracts. My question (and, indeed, caution) about what the Oilers might look like in 3 years is how many of those guys will they be able to afford to keep around under a hard cap situation. Reality will dictate that Eberle, Hall, Nugent Hopkins, Yakupov, J. Schultz and company will, should they develop in the giddy hot stove dreams of Oiler fans, the team be able to fit under the cap?

        A different situation than the Flames, yes, but one still fraught with huge risks and question marks. But, isn’t that what we’ve seen with these two organizations throughout their respective memebership in the NHL? The Oilers of the ’80s were built similarly, through drafts that yielded them the Coffeys and the Lowes, Fuhr, Kurri and company (Gretzky was a gift, remember, from the WHA). Their counterpoint in Calgary, the second half of the best two teams in the League, was built by free agent signings (scouring the NCAA in those days), some astute trading by Cliff Fletcher and some surprises out of lower rounds of the draft (Al MacInnis, Gary Suter).

        My point? Only that there are many ways to success, not just one. My hope is that the Battle of Alberta will once again (earlier than those 3 year projections) be the contest between the two best teams in the NHL. Everyone wins then.

        • MC Hockey

          I take some exception to that: Nieuwendyk, Roberts, Loob, Fleury, Hull, Hrdina and Vernon were also all drafted along with several other serviceable NHLers and afew more past 1989 that helped the team stay competitive.

          As well, NCAA has been out of the bag for at least a decade now, so you have to draft those guys now anyways.

          Point is, every Cup winner is built from the ground up through the draft. Smart tradeing and FA signings are how smart GMs put their team over the top, but the foundation is always the draft.

      • SmellOfVictory

        In my favourite scenario, At least one of the big 4 has to be traded away because the other 3 get overpaid, and he ends up being the best of the bunch. I want the Oilers and Flames to be competitive, but I also want the Oilers fans to suffer.

  • Austin L

    This is just a wild guess. I say Iggy and Kipper are gone. Hopefully we traded them for what we could get. So that’s probably a combination of picks/prospects/young-ish players. The anchor for forwards will probably be Backlund/Cervenka/Baertschi. Hudler will be in the top 6 along with Tanguay. They probably will re-sign Cammalleri. After that it’s a wild guess. Bouma will be on the fourth line.

    People that I see moving up for forwards are Gaudreau=top 9. Granlund=top 9. Ferland=top 9. Reinhart=top 6.

    On the defensive side of things, I think the at least one of the next two years, we’re going to have to use one of our first round picks on a defenseman since our cupboards are so bare. Brodie will hopefully be a bad top 2 or a very good top 4. I’m thinking something along the lines of a Wideman here. JBo will be gone. Butler will still be here. Giordano will still be here. Wideman will still be here. So the top 4 looks like Butler, Gio, Wideman, Brodie. But Feaster will probably make some moves to tinker with the D before then. John Ramage hopefully makes the team as well.

    In net, if Kipper leaves, I assume Ramo and Irving with split one season, if neither impresses, then we’ll either sign a guy from free agency, or trade for somebody.

  • Tommynotsohuge

    Baertschi-MacKinnon-Rattie

    Gaudreau-Jankawski-Chris Stewert

    Glenncross-Reinheart-Ferland

    Bouma-Jones-Nemisz

    Gio-Brodie
    Wideman-Seiloff
    Arnold-Wotherspoon
    Breen

    Ramo-Irving

    We trade Bouwmeester And Iggy to St. Louis for Rattie and Stewert. Trade kipper on this upcoming trade deadline to a basement dweller for their first round pick. Move up in the lottery to select MacKinnon 1st overall. Maybe take Lazar with pur other first. Wishful thinking o Know, but a guy can dream
    🙂

    • Austin L

      I like the thinking but I think that hopefully the Flames will sign a few free agents during the time because as much as I like our prospects that’s a pretty weak line up. I like your thinking though, but I really hope the combination of Iginla and JBo would bring back a lot more than Rattie and Stewart. I say give Iggy to St. Louis for Rattie and Kipper to Columbus for Johansen. Reunite the Winterhawks 😉 . I think Iggy and Kipper should bring back a bit more than one high end prospect though.

    • Reidja

      I like this. It’s almost best case scenario but it does point to a large hole in our future defensive depth. Otherwise, I will pray every night for this to come true.

  • Danger

    @Kevin R

    I see what you mean about getting closer to the Wolf’s mindset about blowing up the core after doing this little thought exercise.

    One thing we should all keep in mind though is that there are a couple of drafts between now and then, as well as a couple of crops of UFAs. So the cupboards will likely be less bare than they appear to be now. (They will still be pretty darn bare, just not completely bare.)

  • Danger

    @Kent

    With any luck, the oilers will be good enough to not get any more lottery picks, but bad enough to still miss the playoffs or get booted early because they will continue to have poor defending and poorer goaltending.

    Of course, if we had any luck we wouldn’t be in this terrible position, so probably the Oilers become the new Canucks and start collecting President’s Trophies.

    • 🙂 Do I get to grow horns & gross looking bumps like that new Seth or do I have to get burned & wear a Darth helmut? If the cookies are those Klondike Bars where the cheerleaders pop out after you take a bite of one, I’m in. 🙂

  • RKD

    In three years, I see Gio, Irving, Baertschi, Glencross, Rammo, Backlund, Horak, Butler, Gaudreau, Reinhardt, Bouma, and Neimsz on this team.

    Obviously due to contract length, I also see Wideman, Hudler, Tanguay, and Cammalleri still here.

    One thing not mentioned, Jarome is not going to ask for a trade and ownership won’t trade him. It’s unlikely, but who’s to say he wouldn’t retire as Flame.

    If Jay-Bo isn’t moved now, he could still go at the deadline or at the draft next summer.

    Kipper probably has a few solid seasons left in him, then would retire.

  • xis10ce

    Iginla isn’t going anywhere, were else is he going to go where he can tell the coach to STFU and nothing can be done about it, or tell the coach to F-off about doing warmups and so on and so forth. Pretty well no where, and he knows it. Even if he doesn’t win the cup he’s a first ballot hall of famer, so maybe thats good enough for him.

  • Tommynotsohuge

    I agree Austin, they should catch a bit more than that. I just think that Chris Stewert has what it takes to be Iginlas replacement. He’s a solid, strong power forward that isn’t afraid of going into the ugly areas and cause chaos. Sure, he will never live up to Iggy standards, but he could definitely be a perfect second line RW. As for Johannson, Absolutely!!!!! I hope Feaster is reading this. We might have just saved this franchise!!!!

    • Austin L

      Stewart has only ever had one year above 30 points with Colorado. He does fit the age bracket the Flames are looking for (23-28). I could see him in the top 9. To be in the top 6 I think you have to hit above 40-45 points multiple times.

  • Tommynotsohuge

    @JayD54

    I think they will find a way to keep most of them, sure there will be a couple of sacrifices, but the majority of the studs will be there. I can’t deny the fact that the Oilers are going to have one hell of a team by 13/14. Our goal should be to at least equal them. I moved to Canada from the UK in 1996 and I have never had the privalage of witnessing a real battle of Alberta. I want both to succeed and see the Flames beat those wankers in game 7 of the western conference final.
    Cheers

    • PrairieStew

      I think Feaster is taking the long term view…he has a decent core but the Flames havent’t drafted well up until 2010 so there’s little in the larder (today). He has put a lot of additional effort into both the draft and player evaluation. Most responders here are missing the fact that in 3 years, they will have 2 more drafts where the high selections will have at least some pro seasoning. Even if you want to “blow it up” you have to be strategic. Until a new CBA is in place, I don’t think you will maximize value anyway. For me I just hope the due diligence was done on the new guys. If you make the right choices 7 times out of 10, you will do fine: Detroit

  • Tommynotsohuge

    I am a Flames fan but we should not smirk at the Oilers predicament 3 years from now. If their 4-5 guys continue to develop, they will be able to sign them much like we were able to keep our core together too and Chicago has done, Pittsburgh, etc. We need to worry about our own team. I couldn’t agree more that we need to trade Iggy and Kipper. If we could get Stewart, Rattie ( although not huge on him) and a 1st for Iggy and a prospect that would be worth a risk. Kipper for Johannson and a 1st would be tremendous. We would need to throw in a bit more too I am sure.
    Possible Roster:
    Forwards:
    Sven, Ferland, Reinhart, Reinhart, Gaudreau, Tanguay, Stewart, Hudler, Jankowski, Johannsen, Arnold, Rattie, Veteran, Veteran, Veteran. Last 3 are role players. I know it is 15 players but, we will have some misses.

    Defense:
    Gio
    Wideman
    Brodie
    Butler
    Seth Jones
    Sieloff
    Wotherspoon

    Goal:
    Ramo
    Kipper ( resigned)

  • SmellOfVictory

    Cammalleri – #1 centre – Expensive UFA
    Glencross – Backlund – Iginla
    Tanguay – Reinhart – Baertschi
    Noob – Bouma – Nemisz

    And on defence we’ll see:
    Giordano – Expensive UFA
    Wideman – Brodie
    Seiloff – Noob

    Ramo
    Reimer

    Cervenka, Hudler, and Butler (along with picks) were all moved to acquire a #1C (I nominate Stastny). Big signings in the two intervening off-seasons have brought in a first-line RW (I nominate Hartnall), and a first pairing d-man (I nominate Dan Girardi).

    Reimer get signed as a back-up (I just want to stick it to all the Leafs fans who think he is the real deal).

    Irving washes out, Jankowski never makes it past the 2nd line of the Heat. Gaudreau proves to be WAAAAY to small to make it in the NHL, and goes to Europe/Russia/wherever.

  • The Last Big Bear

    Cammalleri – #1 centre – Expensive UFA

    Glencross – Backlund – Iginla

    Tanguay – Reinhart – Baertschi

    Noob – Bouma – Nemisz

    And on defence we’ll see:

    Giordano – Expensive UFA

    Wideman – Brodie

    Seiloff – Noob

    Ramo

    Reimer

    Cervenka, Hudler, and Butler (along with picks) were all moved to acquire a #1C (I nominate Stastny). Big signings in the two intervening off-seasons have brought in a first-line RW (I nominate Hartnall), and a first pairing d-man (I nominate Dan Girardi).

    Reimer get signed as a back-up (I just want to stick it to all the Leafs fans who think he is the real deal).

    Irving washes out, Jankowski never makes it past the 2nd line of the Heat. Gaudreau proves to be WAAAAY to small to make it in the NHL, and goes to Europe/Russia/wherever.

  • RexLibris

    @SmellOfVictory

    ” I want the Oilers and Flames to be competitive, but I also want the Oilers fans to suffer.”

    Sir, I am wounded! lol

    I understand the desire for a little schadenfreude from Flames fans, but the reality is that even if the Oilers have to give up one of their prospects (Yakupov, Eberle, etc) they will likely be at least reasonably compensated, be it through trade or offer sheet. It may be a diminishing return, but the starting point would likely be relatively high.

    As for the exercise, I guess it all depends on the elephant-in-the-room question: “is Feaster still around in three years?”

    I’d say no, which means anything could happen.

  • supra steve

    JayD54

    I’m really not getting the doom and gloom as applied to the Oilers, and resigning their young stars when they become RFA’s. I would trade the Flame’s current situation for that one any day. IF the Oil are unable to resign Nail, trade his rights for a few young (cheap) high end prospects, and a few roll players.

    Pens did the same with Staal just a few weeks back and they still look kinda strong. That’s the kind of problem I would love to have.

  • RexLibris

    @suba steve

    That is pretty much where I am in the “can we keep them all” debate.

    Would fans rather have their team have to trade away a player like Yakupov or Eberle because they can’t afford the luxury of him, or would they prefer never to have had him at all?

    If the Oilers were eventually forced to trade one of their young players, likely either Yakupov or Eberle because Hall and Nugent-Hopkins will quickly become untouchable, and receive even half of what the Kessel trade got for Boston, it would be a pretty decent trade down. Doug Hamilton, or a player of his ilk, would look awfully nice paired with Justin Schultz, Jeff Petry, or Ladislav Smid.

  • SmellOfVictory

    You’d think the return would be good, but in my experience watching Sutter work, it’s evident that GMs are entirely capable of taking it in the pooper on trades.

  • Re: Oilers. Not all of their top prospects can ask for $10M per year for 15 years. Only 1 or 2 of them is really worth even anything near that. My guess would be Eberle as the odd man out.

    The way Hall plays though, he’ll be injured and retired in a year or two (two or three if there’s a lockout).

    As for the Flames, I would protest outside the Saddledome if they lost Iginla for nothing. After the whole “Schenn + Simmonds + 1st for Iginla” debacle, that’d be the final straw. Failing to trade Iginla when he had full value and then bungling it with a new contract… wow, what a major screw up.

    The people suggesting Chris Stewart obviously don’t know anything about him. I watched a lot of him in Colorado, and he’s not that good. One 30 goal season, and he hasn’t been the same since he broke his hand a couple years ago. He DOESN’T go to the dirty areas as much anymore (he didn’t really before the broken hand either), and he’s been in and out of the dog house in both CO and STL. He lost his scoring touch and I’m pretty sure the roughing up of opponents is left to Inglourious Backes. No thanks.

  • seve927

    Hard to guess what the whole roster would look like, but I’m surprised Kulak is not on anyones list. I think Ferland has a chance to be a real good player, like what Arnold and Reinhart could offer, and I think Brossoit has a good chance of being something special.

    Cautiously optimistic on Gaudreau.

    The 2012 class seem pretty good, but I’ll wait and see how they perform this year to get excited about any of them.

    Overall, way brighter future than the Oilers.