Flames Prospects 2012-13 NHLE – Full Season



Well the kids are all basically done their regular seasons, so we can take a look at their overall NHL equivalencies for 2012-13.

For those who have been following along all year, there are no major surprises here. A few guys started out on fire, but it really only boiled down to Johnny Hockey putting up a truly noteworthy number. Sven, Bill Arnold are only other guys who finished above the 30-point barrier.

The Forwards

Forwards League PPG Translation NHLE
John Gaudreau NCAA 1.47 0.41 49
Sven Baertschi AHL 0.81 0.55 37
Bill Arnold NCAA 0.95 0.41 32
Markus Granlund SM-liiga 0.60 0.54 27
Turner Elson WHL 0.89 0.30 22
Roman Horak AHL 0.48 0.55 22
Coda Gordon CHL 0.84 0.30 21
Paul Byron AHL 0.43 0.55 19
Mark Jankowski NCAA 0.53 0.41 18
Matt Deblouw CCHA 0.47 0.41 16
Max Reinhart AHL 0.30 0.55 14
Greg Nemisz AHL 0.17 0.55 8

The AHL translation level is still set at 0,55, although that was the ratio we established for an "AHL lockout" American Hockey League featuring more NHL level talent than usual, so adjust accordingly.

There isn’t much to talk about besides the top-3 guys. Anyone at Granlund or below has a long way to go to get to the show and make any kind of impact. Any guy with a 20-something NHLE who isn’t also a teenager probably isn’t a prospect of note. So say your farewells to the likes of Paul Byron and Greg Nemisz and maybe ratchet down any expectations you might have of Roman Horak. Max Reinhart might get some leeway as a 20-year old pro rookie, but he’ll have to make huge strides as a sophomore to start looking like he’s worth a damn.

Mark Jankowski’s freshman year in Providence was farily underwhelming, but he was very young and the team was pretty punchless overall. Nobody should be too worried about him for now, although if he doesn’t manage to double his PPG rate next season, well…maybe the club shouldn’t have traded down in the first round.

The Defense

Defensemen League PPG Translation NHLE
Ryan Culkin CHL 0.67 0.29 16
Tyler Wotherspoon CHL 0.61 0.30 15
Brett Kulak CHL 0.61 0.30 15
John Ramage NCAA 0.46 0.41 16
Brady Lamb AHL 0.17 0.55 8
Patrick Sieloff CHL 0.24 0.30 6

The blueliners have been pretty stable all year, although John Ramage has steadily improved over the course of the year. Still, there isn’t a high-end pont getter in the bunch, with the possible exception of Brett Kulak who improved his personal point results despite playing on one of the worst teams in the CHL. Keep an eye on his next year.


Without Johnny Gaudreau knocking the cover off the ball (and Jon Gillies killing it for Providence) this would have been an utterly underwhelming year for the Flames hopefuls. Gaudreau established himself as Calgary’s lone semi-bluechip prospect, though, and pretty much every puck stopper was as good or better than expected.

With the trade deadline coming up and the Flames probable sellers, Feaster and company should be aiming at getting a few more guys in the 30+ NHLE realm.

  • Surprised that Reinhart has,nt done better,but noticed he,s been utilized as a defensive forward for most of the year.

    Not surprised that Ramage has improved this year,as i think the pro game will motivate him even more

  • For some reason this chart reminded me of what I heard Pat and Andrew talking about on the Fan a couple weeks ago.

    They determined that Arnold was probably not gonna end up being a NHLer. They didn’t give much of a reason just didn’t think he’d make it. When I heard that I just thought why do I even listen to these guys they have no idea what they are talking about.

    I guess my point is points aren’t the only thing that get you to the show…

    I think Arnold has the intangibles that will get him to the Big league, Rienhart too.

    But outside of Sven, Jank and Johnny I don’t have too much hope for the top 6….

    • To be fair, betting against any one prospect making it to the show (outside the very best) is a good one. I think in terms of the Flames current crop here’s currently one of the best, but that doesn’t mean he’s a lock to make it.

      • Franko J

        I agree, I just haven’t heard any criticisms in regards to Arnold from anyone who knows more about him as a player than I.

        Actually all I have ever heard is good things. I just think he has a good shot at being a good 3 rd liner.

        He has the size, character, and ability to do it so I don’t understand the doubt..

    • supra steve

      You sure that was Pat on there, cuz usually Andrew Walker works in the mornings with Boomer and Rhett Warrener. Pat works in the afternoons.

      But ya, WAlker has no idea what he’s talking about usually

  • ChinookArchYYC

    I’m still holding out hope for Marcus Grandlund. His performance picked up in the last part of his season. Maybe he’s figured out what his game needs to be, in the abscense of his brother.

  • jeremywilhelm

    The good thing about Arnold is he brings alot more than point production, which to be fair, wasn’t bad. He could play on a scoring line or a 3rd/4th line role in the show and probably not be out of place.

    Look no further than Tyler Bozak. Sure, he is well over matched on the top line of the Leafs, but if you moved him down to second or third line, he probably wouldn’t be terrible. And Arnold is as good if not better than Bozak ever was in NCAA.

  • the forgotten man

    Pretty slim pickings…Jankowski better pick it up a notch next year but in the meantime dude should be inhaling whey protein and hitting the gym like there is no tomorrow. Not that I condone it but he needs to start bathing in some of that Barry Bonds ointment.
    Gaudreau should be adopted by Fleury…he’ll need his edge minus the hookers and blow.

    How can a franchise be so inept at drafting and developing hockey players…one would almost think we were run by guys who never played the sport?

  • Truculence

    I always get a laugh out of NHLE numbers that cover such a wide spectrum of leagues in order to estimate talent relative to the NHL.

    Case in point: Markus Granlund. So he only had 30 points in 50 games while playing in the Finnish elite league against men. In fact, that`s four points less than he had last year when his brother was on the team. So it was obviously his brother padding his stats?

    How about a Hell No!!!! First of all, Granlund only played around 30% of his shifts with his elder brother last year, so it isn`t as valid a comparison as most think. Secondly, a more telling stat is that Granlund finished second on his team in points -only seven points seperate him and the team leader, despite the fact that Erikkson played ten more games than Granlund.

    Third and most importantly, Granlund was forced into a top six role with HIFK as some of the better forwards departed this year. Despite being thrown into deep waters, rather than being sheltered as he was in his rookie season, Granlund almost maintained his PPG pace. And remember HIFK has not been very good this year, and has had a very difficult time scoring in general!

    I don`t know about you, but I would call that improvement. He still has defensive issues and needs to get stronger, but his stats are damn good for a 19 year old in a men`s league. In fact, I would argue that outside of Baertchi, no Flames prospect has played tougher minutes against men than Granlund.

    So the NHLE is a bit misleading, as it hopelessly ignores the general competitive environment in which the prospect earned his points -i.e. all those criteria that make up advanced stats.

    In my mind, Granlund is the third best forward prospect in the system and may eventually even outshine Gauderau.

    • NHLE is a broad brush stat that is obviously blind to circumstances and luck, like most counting stats.

      It tends to be a blunt instrument but a useful ranking tool nonetheless. If we ever get richer data sets from the various other leagues we’ll be able to fill in the gaps.

  • Truculence

    And guys, please give Jankowski a break. He was tied for fourth in scoring on a very young and bad Friars team that only made it to the big show on the back of Gilles. He doesn`t even turn nineteen until September 13!!! The leading scorer on the Friars, Mauermann, had a whopping six more points than Jankowski despite playing four more games. And MAuermann is 22!!!

    Like Granlund, Jankowski didn`t have the luxury of gradually being integrated into a top six role. He spent considerable time on the top two lines of the Friars against very tough competition in Hockey East.

    Not bad for an eighteen year old who was playing high school hockey last year.

    We should get a better idea of his upside next year. Let`s also hope that the Friars attract some more talented prospects to play alongside him.

      • Truculence

        Lol, I meant eighteen. My brother went through a very similar growth spurt -went from 5`7 to 6`3 in sixteen months. It took his frame a couple of years to catch up. At age seventeen, he was 170. At age 21 he was 219.

        Patience boys. I don`t disagree the Flames took a risk, but let him fill out and gain more experience to see what we really got.

        Plus, a couple of guys who follow College hockey have told me that the guy has insane moves, but simply had an underwhelming year on a bad team.

        • Captain Ron

          I can relate to your brother. At one time I was 160 lbs!!! during the growth spurt that stopped at 6’5″. About 215 lbs by 21 and fluctuated between that and 240 lbs from then till now.

          I have a nephew in WPG that also went through the same thing. He stopped at about 6’6″ and was a bean pole for a while but has started to fill out now.

          My next door neighbor’s youngest son looks like Jankowski’s twin and I have noticed he is also starting to fill out as well. I also noticed in a picture I saw of Jankowski that he looks like he has big hands just like this kid. I think that is an indication of future growth potential. Co-incidence that they are all similar in age with Sept birthdays?

          Odds are favorable that they all fill out properly rather than stay beanpoles for life. I wouldn’t be too worried about it.

          • McRib

            Look at Adam Lowry of Swift Current to see how filling out pays dividends!!! He is a force this season and still has more 10-20 pounds of development left. Wish we would have taken him a couple year back in the second round.

            Anyway like above posters, I was a late bloomer at 5’6″ – 148 Pounds by the end of Grade 11, Halfway through Grade 12 I was 6’1″ -178. By the end of first year University I was 6’3″ 212 pounds. Everyone develops at a different rate and just looking at Mark’s hands makes me think he is in for a major weight gain.

            Jankowki is going to be an entirely different player next year and at a whole different level the year after, once he adds 30-40 Pounds. Honestly after watching Lowry grow into a beast the past couple season in the ‘dub, I am starting to look forward to Jankowski more and more!!!

  • Franko J

    The fixation with data analysis in determining who will make it and who will not is very corrupt as it does not adjust for so many measurable and unmeasurable situations. These include level of competition, level of opposition, injury, travel, etc, etc. Also take in to consideration the youth development model that shows that most athletes do not even enter their prime years until the age of 25. With advancements in nutritional and training knowledge, that number may even be to low. If you look at this, Gaudreau and Granlund and Jankowski may be developing much more than we realize as they are playing against athletes who are in or approaching their prime while they are no where near their’s.

    • SmellOfVictory

      It’s always expected to be taken with a substantial grain of salt, but absent the ability to watch these kids ourselves, what are we supposed to do? It’s nice having something on them, even if it is a type of analysis containing some flaws.

    • It’s not “very currupt”, it’s simply not perfect. Don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good. I’ve been looking at these numbers for years now and they provide very useful rules of thumb: guys with 30+ NHLE’s tend be good prospects, guys with 40+ NHLE’s tend to be very good prospects (good and very good meaning: higher chance of making NHL in a meaningful role). Anyone below that line almost always has a lower chance of making the show.

      We can adjust for known circumstances and age, of course, but this is the best current method of comparing kids across different leagues.

  • Franko J

    @ the forgotten man

    “How can a franchise be so inept at drafting and developing hockey players…one would almost think we were run by guys who never played the sport?”

    Agree 100 %. Twenty years of ineptitude. Going all the way back to Fletcher, each GM has made their fair share of blunders and mistakes. However, the most glaring factor is that the team lacked an identity and therefore lacked the proper philosophy at the draft.

    The worst part about the Flames draft record is that they draft players who garner little interest from other teams. Seldom do other teams actually find the Flames’ prospects a hot commodity.

  • Derzie

    Someone postulated to me the other day that Gaudreau, largely due to his father’s influence, would play out his full college years and go UFA. In other words, he will not sign with Calgary.

    Given his value is fairly high right now, should the Flames move him before they face another Erixon scenario?

    • supra steve

      Flames have 2 more years to get the kid signed, let’s be patient for a while before doing anything rash. It is a situation they need to be on top of though, and if a REALLY nice offer comes in, then yeah, ship him out.

    • supra steve

      I would agree with that theory. Pretty sure that I read somewhere that his father wants him to finish his four years before thinking about turning pro. East coast kid might decide that it is better to play closer to home and there is a possibility that he pulls a Justin Schultz and does not sign.

      Agree with Suba that you dont need or nessecarily want to rush into anything, but I do think that Gaudreau needs to be an asset in play depending upon the return.

      If Gaudreau helps to get Couturier out of Philadelphia than I am all for moving him because there are still a number of risks with the him as a prospect. Number of risks with any prospect.

  • jeremywilhelm


    I dont believe that the CBA was changed to close that loop hole. I think that if Gaudreau plays his four years of college and then does not sign after the specified time period after graduating that he becomes a UFA.

    Not saying that he would do that because I dont know his personality and maybe he will have a sense of loyalty to the Flames for picking him. But I do think that his fathers comments do bear watching in the future and that there are enough potential risks.

    Luke Schenn, Braydon Schenn, and 2013 2nd round draft pick for Jay Bouwmeester and John Gaudreau?
    2013 1st round pick if the Flames keep $1.8M in cap space back in the deal? Hard to at least not consider as potential.

  • everton fc

    Gaudreau’s an exciting prospect. As is Sven, for now. The rest are not so exciting. Wotherspoon has the size. Culkin’s listed at 6’1″ 182 lbs. He’ll need to beef up. Kulak’s listed at 5’11’ 165 lbs. Granlund’s “smallish”.
    Ramage seems sturdy, but on the shorter side. Arnold may do well on a line with a kid like Bouma. And I still don’t get the Jankowski pick on a team that needed more immediate solutions…

    I still don’t think Jankowski’s a #1 pick. I’ll leave it at that. And I think Horak will be a competent NHL player, albeit 3rd/4th line fodder. Reinhart – the jury’s out. Hopefully he turns into something. And I still like Ferland, though his goal production is certainly down, which is a massive concern, not to mention his conditioning issues (apparently)

    We have no real prospects. That’s how I see it. And I don’t trust the combo of Feaster/Weisbrod to improve things.

    (Linden Vey in Manchester, property of the Kings… If Iginla is moved to L.A., I’d ask for Vey, as part of the deal)

  • everton fc

    Count me in on the high on Ramage crowd, I got to watch a game or two of his when the Score was showing come NCAA games and he was pretty good, trough for his size, had decent positioning and if he can actually score a little bit (I thought his NHLE would be much lower) than he could make a very good depth defencemen.