Year-End Scoring Chance Round-Up

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One of the things we do here at FlamesNation is count scoring chances. We do this because we care, but also because the data can be pretty useful – both on an individual level and in the aggregate. We’ll have some more time to dig into the data over the summer, but here’s a quick overview of how things turned out for individual players.

TERMINOLOGY

CF%: Corsi For %; percentage of all shots, missed shots and blocked shots that were sent towards the opponent’s net while a player’s on the ice.

FF%: Fenwick For %; percentage of all shots and missed shots that were sent towards the opponent’s net (it’s Corsi that ignores blocked shots) while the player’s on the ice.

SF%: Shots For %; percentage of all shots that were sent towards the opponent’s net while the player’s on the ice.

GF%: Goals For %; percentage of all goals scored while a player’s on the ice that were scored on the opponent’s net.

SC%: Scoring Chance For %; percentage of all scoring chances while a player’s on the ice that were on the opponent’s net. In short: it’s Corsi, except limited to attempts within the “home-plate” zone in front of the net.

CorsRel QoC: The average CorsiRel of the opponents each player played against. Typically there’s a continuum from 2 (the other team’s best players) to -2 (slugs), but there are exceptions.

DEFENSEMEN

Player GP CF% FF% SF% GF% SC% CorsiRel
QoC
Giordano 64 53.3 53.5 54.8 53.5 52.8 1.682
Brodie 81 51.5 52.3 52.0 48.7 52.0 1.487
Russell 68 43.5 45.9 46.3 46.1 46.7 0.370
Butler 82 42.8 45.2 44.9 37.5 45.2 0.311
Cundari 4 47.7 50.8 52.5 0.0 44.4 -4.347
O’Brien 45 44.0 44.4 42.2 39.0 42.3 -1.526
Wideman 46 45.9 47.9 49.4 43.1 42.0 -0.270
Wotherspoon 14 40.5 41.5 42.9 41.2 41.9 0.119
Smid 56 41.2 43.4 43.3 41.7 40.4 0.536
Smith 14 48.4 43.9 40.4 14.3 35.7 -1.406
Billins 10 44.4 43.4 40.2 36.4 34.6 -1.906
Breen 9 45.1 43.2 41.3 54.5 34.0 -1.054

Boy howdy, Giordano and Brodie are amazing. They face EASILY the hardest competition on the team, and they constantly push play the right way. Butler and Russell are shielded, but their numbers are adequate on a team with a 46% average. Smid and Wotherspoon aren’t too shielded and their numbers aren’t great, suggesting that they could do better with more favourable circumstances. Wideman, O’Brien, Billins, Smith and Breen are not good, and they were shielded quite a bit. Granted, Wideman was injured or recovering from injury for a big chunk of the year, but for the guy with the richest contract on the entire team, that’s pretty awful.

FORWARDS

Player GP CF% FF% SF% GF% SC% CorsiRel
QoC
Backlund 76 51.7 53.3 52.6 51.4 54.4 1.000
Baertschi 26 43.2 45.2 45.7 44.4 50.3 -0.399
Byron 47 50.4 51.2 52.2 52.8 50.0 0.884
Horak 1 41.7 33.3 40.0 0.0 50.0 N/A
Galiardi 62 49.5 51.2 50.4 39.4 49.9 0.629
Cammalleri 63 50.8 51.7 51.9 45.7 49.3 1.011
Hudler 75 46.7 47.5 47.2 55.8 48.5 0.454
Stempniak 52 48.3 48.2 48.4 30.8 47.8 N/A
Stajan 63 47.6 49.3 49.4 40.2 46.4 1.028
Reinhart 8 45.5 41.8 38.2 60.0 45.9 0.592
Jones (B) 14 43.5 42.7 45.8 50.0 45.7 0.329
Glencross 38 42.7 44.0 43.0 37.0 45.2 0.891
Jones (D) 48 45.3 47.6 48.5 51.2 44.4 1.229
Monahan 75 43.8 44.9 44.8 41.8 43.8 -0.040
Colborne 80 45.4 46.5 47.1 42.3 43.6 0.208
Granlund 7 44.4 44.8 42.2 60.0 43.3 0.200
Bouma 78 43.5 46.0 47.3 46.4 42.9 0.453
Westgarth 36 41.1 43.8 44.1 45.0 41.9 -1.326
Agostino 8 43.4 46.0 44.6 33.3 41.2 -0.692
Hanowski 11 44.3 46.2 47.3 37.5 40.0 -0.252
Arnold 1 50.0 54.5 40.0 0.0 40.0 0.167
McGrattan 76 38.4 41.0 41.3 43.8 38.1 -1.191
Jackman 10 42.3 43.3 43.1 33.3 37.5 N/A
Knight 7 42.9 50.7 53.8 42.9 37.0 -0.176
Van Brabant 6 36.3 39.7 35.3 33.3 36.8 0.120
Street 13 41.4 41.7 42.0 37.5 36.7 0.682
Gaudreau 1 57.9 58.3 66.7 100 33.3 -0.381
MacDermid 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3 -2.334

Backlund and Byron: not shielded, but driving play. With Byron, not sure how much is his linemates and how much is him, but I’m curious to see how he does over a full year. Looking at goals-for, Galiardi and Stempniak just had no luck at all – especially Galiardi. He wasn’t shielded, consistently drove play, yet couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. David Jones’ numbers were just slightly under the team average, despite him (a) dealing with injuries all year and (b) facing tough sledding. Baertschi was shielded a little bit, but had really good chance numbers given that.

Monahan and Colborne generally played together. They weren’t shielded. They were below average in terms of chances. But remember: they’re really young. And shocker: Westgarth and McGrattan were heavily shielded and were buried alive in terms of scoring chances.

HIGHS & LOWS

Most chances-for among regulars:

  • T.J. Brodie – 383
  • Chris Butler – 309
  • Mark Giordano – 297
  • Kris Russell – 291
  • Mikael Backlund – 279

Least chances-for among regulars:

  • Kevin Westgarth – 39
  • Brian McGrattan – 80
  • Shane O’Brien – 90
  • Paul Byron – 125
  • Curtis Glencross – 128

Most chances-against among regulars:

  • Chris Butler – 374
  • T.J. Brodie – 353
  • Kris Russell – 332
  • Jiri Hudler – 282
  • Sean Monahan – 276

Least chances-against among regulars:

  • Kevin Westgarth – 54
  • Shane O’Brien – 123
  • Paul Byron – 125
  • Brian McGrattan – 130
  • Curtis Glencross – 155

Any differences between the goaltenders?

  • Team was 51.58% with Joni Ortio in net
  • Team was 50.00% with Joey MacDonald in net
  • Team was 45.43% with Karri Ramo in net
  • Team was 43.71% with Reto Berra in net

SUM IT UP

The Flames’ good players are – shocker – good by possession metrics. Some of their not-great players appear to have had bad years, like David Jones and T.J. Galiardi.

And the team seemed to play better with Joni Ortio in net than with anybody else, and better with Karri Ramo than with Reto Berra.

    • prendrefeu

      Thanks for the compilation!
      Quick edit: The fourth bulleted list should be titled “Least chances-against among regulars”

      Non-edit: I am interested in the correlation with who is in the net. What are thoughts on this? Perhaps distribution of the puck? Ability to control rebounds? Is Ortio going to make it to NHL elite or above-standard level?

      It is also interesting to note where Byron is ending up on the list(s). I thought he was mostly high-yielding for production despite low possession. Maybe I was deceived by my own eyes.

    • prendrefeu

      backlund was byron’s most common linemate. byron saw his cf% drop by 5% when away from mickis to like 46%. basically, I am unconvinced that he’s anything more than a functional fourth liner, which is okay

      • Parallex

        I see Byron as being the 13th forward next year. A guy with one plus tool (Speed) that can play all three forward positions up-and-down the lineup. That’s worth keeping on the big league roster.

    • FeyWest

      Very interesting to see all the stats and how the players compared to one another, cheers for the work and number crunching Ryan.

      Should be interesting to compare this year to the next 2-3 years!

      **Edit** Hm trashed for complimenting, interesting….

      • Parallex

        Mentioning the trash button tends to get you trashed… in fact I’m going to trash this comment (my own comment you’re reading right now) just as soon as I click “Post Comment” because I mentioned it. 🙂

        • FeyWest

          xD I know I didn’t expect much but the 1st was prior to my edit, if I was giving an opinion on something I wouldn’t have cared but I was just appreciating Ryan’s hard work getting all the data together for us hockey starved fans. but Se la vie 😛

      • FeyWest

        I guess he is a younger version of one of our goons. so I’m okay with that, if he actually replaces one of the others.
        But I don’t know, I just don’t like him. I read some interviews of him, and he really made some idiotic statements.

        • FeyWest

          Maybe just needs a good mentor/coach/teammate, time will tell but I’m not hard done by taking a chance on someone. Just like Cervenka, even though it didn’t work out, I like thinking out of the box because you never know what you may uncover!

    • Jeff Lebowski

      Thanks for compiling this. Is there a method to correct SC for TOI differences?

      Raw numbers become more meaningful when everyone is scaled to a benchmark. Hopefully that makes sense.

      Also, with the special case of Monahan: How does he compare (historically to say 2005 to present) for players fresh from junior (Not rookie season, but vs all players who make immediate leap – so against a ROR and Mackinnon for example). Are there any trends (a real sophomore slump perhaps?) and historical benchmarks of the kinds of progression (or regressions) for subsequent seasons.

    • FeyWest

      For me these stats mostly confirmed the sight test with maybe the exception of TJG. Do we have the stats broken down into segments? I would really be interested to see Wides stats before his first injury, also to see McG stats for just after the Olympics.