Flames Fancy Stats Through 17 Games

We’re 17 games (or just over 20%) into the Calgary Flames schedule, so it’s time for another check-in regarding how the club’s players are doing in all areas fancy stats.

We have a mix of stuff we’re tallying ourselves (scoring chances and zone entries), and stuff we’re putting from data collected by the fine folks at War on Ice and Hockey Analysis.

Except for zone entries, all stats refer to even-strength numbers, and we’re limiting things to players who have played 10+ games due to sample size concerns.

BEST CORSI

  • Forwards: Paul Byron (49.61%), Jiri Hudler (47.46%), Sean Monahan (47.05%)
  • Defense: Mark Giordano (45.94%), T.J. Brodie (45.85%)

WORST CORSI

  • Forwards: Brandon Bollig (34.4%), Lance Bouma (37.58%), Joe Colborne (37.61%)
  • Defense: Deryk Engelland (37.8%), Ladislav Smid (39.36%)

TOUGHEST MINUTES (Opponent Corsi%)

  • Forwards: Devin Setoguchi (52.61%), Paul Byron (52.55%), Jiri Hudler (52.49%) [Monahan just off the leaderboard at 52.46%]
  • Defense: T.J. Brodie (53.09%), Mark Giordano (52.93%)

EASIEST MINUTES (Opponent Corsi%)

  • Forwards: Brandon Bollig (49.84%), Lance Bouma (50.18%), Josh Jooris (50.83%)
  • Defense: Ladislav Smid (50.52%), Deryk Engelland (51.1%)

MOST O-ZONE STARTS

  • Forwards: Johnny Gaudreau (50.39% OZS), Jiri Hudler (48.61%), Brandon Bollig (47.17%)
  • Defense: Kris Russell (51.5% OZS), Deryk Engelland (48.28%)

LEAST O-ZONE STARTS

  • Forwards: Matt Stajan (32.78% OZS), Curtis Glencross (35.54%), Mikael Backlund (37.74%)
  • Defense: Ladislav Smid (35.24% OZS), T.J. Brodie (36.32%)

SCORING CHANCE LEADERS

  • Forwards: Curtis Glencross (51.3 SCF%), David Jones (50.7%), Paul Byron (50.37%) [Jooris just off leaderboard at 49.28%]
  • Defense: Mark Giordano (53.72 SCF%), T.J. Brodie (49.49%)

SCORING CHANCE SLACKERS

  • Forwards: Mason Raymond (31.58 SCF%), Devin Setoguchi (34.85%), Brandon Bollig (37.36%)
  • Defense: Deryk Engelland (34.51 SCF%), Kris Russell (36.36%)

DUMPERS

  • Forwards: Devin Setoguchi (25% carry), Brandon Bollig (26.32% carry), Josh Jooris (27.27%)
  • Defense: Ladislav Smid (0% carry), Deryk Engelland (20.59% carry)

CARRIERS

  • Forwards: Johnny Gaudreau (64.23% carry), Mikael Backlund (59.15% carry), Paul Byron (58.43% carry)
  • Defense: T.J. Brodie (45.74% carry), Kris Russell (27.06% carry)

TAKEAWAYS

For the curious, Calgary’s player usage chart (via Hockey Abstract):

Clean_Image_for_Blogs

  • The “tough minutes, good Corsi” club includes Paul Byron, Jiri Hudler, Sean Monahan, T.J. Brodie and Mark Giordano.
  • In the Setoguchi vs. Jooris race for getting to play regular NHL minutes: Setoguchi plays tough minutes, has okay Corsi and awful scoring chance numbers. Jooris plays easy minutes, has okay Corsi and really good scoring chance numbers.
  • Smid and Engelland are a terrifying pairing possession-wise.
  • Brandon Bollig is the Deryk Engelland of the bottom-six.
  • Johnny Gaudreau’s possession numbers have improved, but they’re still not very good. Luckily for him, he plays for the Flames, so nobody’s possession numbers are all that great.
  • My “I like David Jones” mindset of late has been backed up by the scoring chance numbers, but his Corsi numbers are fairly blah.
  • There’s not a huge division between the quality of competition between the Flames leaders and bottom-end, but that’s probably a product of their road-heavy schedule.
    • Away? Easiest competition went to (F) Bollig, Bouma & Stajan, (D) Diaz & Smid. Hardest competition went to (F) Gaudreau, Byron & Colborne, (D) Brodie & Giordano.
    • Home? Easiest competition went to (F) Bollig, Jooris & Bouma, (D) Smid & Engelland. Hardest competition went to (F) Glencross, Stajan & Hudler, (D) Brodie & Giordano.
    • Yes, road teams are totally targeting Johnny Gaudreau, which is entirely what they should be doing as rational decision-makers.
      • Derzie

        We are a rebuilding team, that yes is probably playing way over its head. However, but all in all with a decent pick this year and our prospects, its still great to be a Flames fan. Yes we will regress but let us dream and have some fun as fans before the “correction”. Like Ryan I am a dismayed with our 5/6 defense this year. I say lets suffer with what we have and wait for free agency or trade next July.

      • The Real Slim Brodie

        I love how these guys are progressing. Last Year Monohan was getting eaten alive. He’s putting up modest points but playing WAY better. Having Gaudreau progress through the year while adding Bennett, Porier (?) into the mix next year will be great. I expect a rebuilding team to be getting out played. But i also expect individual players to be improving (which they are). Things are looking good.

      • prendrefeu

        @Ryan Pike

        “Johnny Gaudreau’s possession numbers have improved, but they’re still not very good. Luckily for him, he plays for the Flames, so nobody’s possession numbers are all that great.”

        Hi.

        I’m not the most savvy on your data-driven analysis of hockey, my strengths are in other verticals in life. Can you, or someone else, please elaborate on this for my feeble brain?

        Thanks,

        “user with a french name”

        • Matty Franchise Jr

          Possession numbers mean NOTHING…..it’s what he does with the puck when he has possession that really matters…..and from what I have seen he has been incredibly effective dishing off the puck and creating all kinds of chances for his line linemates !

        • What sort of elaboration would you like?

          Looking at the Player Usage Chart.

          Blue bubble is good. Brown bubble is bad.

          The more blue the bubble, the more often the puck is in the opposition’s end instead of CGY’s end when said player is on the ice.

          So if ever you see a big blue bubble in the top left corner(high quality of competition, low Ozone starts) then you’ve most likely got yourself an elite elite player.

          The other 4 players on the ice have a larger impact on the color of the bubble than the one player alone, so it’s good to look at CorsiRel to see how much of a positive or negative impact that player may or may not be having on the overall number.

          So CGY’s corsi when Gio is on the ice 46%, but his CorisRel is 10.8. Which is first among CGY dmen. When you look at his QualComp and Dzone starts it becomes pretty clear that despite the 46%, he’s elite.

      • BurningSensation

        Rumours are swirling that Calgary is looking to make a trade and add a defender (please be Mike Green)!

        If we could swap out Engelland for anyone, and Bollig for, well for anyone, the Corgis might stop weeping blood.

        • RexLibris

          Nikita Nikitin’s ears are burning…

          😉

          Sorry, after the Staios and Smid trades I couldn’t resist.

          Engelland and Bollig are who some of us thought they would be.

          Bollig is a PK option who can get buried neck deep.

          As I suspected, Smid/Engelland is a poor pairing, but Russell/Wideman leave few other options and Diaz hasn’t achieved enough to be the answer.

          What I find most telling of all of this is the ZS.

          Typically a coach will try to give one or two lines really nice ZS, one will get the middle and one will be buried (think Malhotra or Gordon).

          Hartley can only give positive ZSs to three players, and barely at that. This is likely a symptom of the team’s abysmal possession numbers and is another sign of an impending correction (because “regression” has become verboten lately).

          Mike Green would be an interesting add, and maybe then you play Green/Smid and Russell/Wideman.

          I’d start scanning the cap-strapped teams like Toronto, St. Louis, Philadelphia, Washington (as noted above), or even L.A.