Flames Fancy Stats Through 17 Games

We’re 17 games (or just over 20%) into the Calgary Flames schedule, so it’s time for another check-in regarding how the club’s players are doing in all areas fancy stats.

We have a mix of stuff we’re tallying ourselves (scoring chances and zone entries), and stuff we’re putting from data collected by the fine folks at War on Ice and Hockey Analysis.

Except for zone entries, all stats refer to even-strength numbers, and we’re limiting things to players who have played 10+ games due to sample size concerns.

BEST CORSI

  • Forwards: Paul Byron (49.61%), Jiri Hudler (47.46%), Sean Monahan (47.05%)
  • Defense: Mark Giordano (45.94%), T.J. Brodie (45.85%)

WORST CORSI

  • Forwards: Brandon Bollig (34.4%), Lance Bouma (37.58%), Joe Colborne (37.61%)
  • Defense: Deryk Engelland (37.8%), Ladislav Smid (39.36%)

TOUGHEST MINUTES (Opponent Corsi%)

  • Forwards: Devin Setoguchi (52.61%), Paul Byron (52.55%), Jiri Hudler (52.49%) [Monahan just off the leaderboard at 52.46%]
  • Defense: T.J. Brodie (53.09%), Mark Giordano (52.93%)

EASIEST MINUTES (Opponent Corsi%)

  • Forwards: Brandon Bollig (49.84%), Lance Bouma (50.18%), Josh Jooris (50.83%)
  • Defense: Ladislav Smid (50.52%), Deryk Engelland (51.1%)

MOST O-ZONE STARTS

  • Forwards: Johnny Gaudreau (50.39% OZS), Jiri Hudler (48.61%), Brandon Bollig (47.17%)
  • Defense: Kris Russell (51.5% OZS), Deryk Engelland (48.28%)

LEAST O-ZONE STARTS

  • Forwards: Matt Stajan (32.78% OZS), Curtis Glencross (35.54%), Mikael Backlund (37.74%)
  • Defense: Ladislav Smid (35.24% OZS), T.J. Brodie (36.32%)

SCORING CHANCE LEADERS

  • Forwards: Curtis Glencross (51.3 SCF%), David Jones (50.7%), Paul Byron (50.37%) [Jooris just off leaderboard at 49.28%]
  • Defense: Mark Giordano (53.72 SCF%), T.J. Brodie (49.49%)

SCORING CHANCE SLACKERS

  • Forwards: Mason Raymond (31.58 SCF%), Devin Setoguchi (34.85%), Brandon Bollig (37.36%)
  • Defense: Deryk Engelland (34.51 SCF%), Kris Russell (36.36%)

DUMPERS

  • Forwards: Devin Setoguchi (25% carry), Brandon Bollig (26.32% carry), Josh Jooris (27.27%)
  • Defense: Ladislav Smid (0% carry), Deryk Engelland (20.59% carry)

CARRIERS

  • Forwards: Johnny Gaudreau (64.23% carry), Mikael Backlund (59.15% carry), Paul Byron (58.43% carry)
  • Defense: T.J. Brodie (45.74% carry), Kris Russell (27.06% carry)

TAKEAWAYS

For the curious, Calgary’s player usage chart (via Hockey Abstract):

Clean_Image_for_Blogs

  • The “tough minutes, good Corsi” club includes Paul Byron, Jiri Hudler, Sean Monahan, T.J. Brodie and Mark Giordano.
  • In the Setoguchi vs. Jooris race for getting to play regular NHL minutes: Setoguchi plays tough minutes, has okay Corsi and awful scoring chance numbers. Jooris plays easy minutes, has okay Corsi and really good scoring chance numbers.
  • Smid and Engelland are a terrifying pairing possession-wise.
  • Brandon Bollig is the Deryk Engelland of the bottom-six.
  • Johnny Gaudreau’s possession numbers have improved, but they’re still not very good. Luckily for him, he plays for the Flames, so nobody’s possession numbers are all that great.
  • My “I like David Jones” mindset of late has been backed up by the scoring chance numbers, but his Corsi numbers are fairly blah.
  • There’s not a huge division between the quality of competition between the Flames leaders and bottom-end, but that’s probably a product of their road-heavy schedule.
    • Away? Easiest competition went to (F) Bollig, Bouma & Stajan, (D) Diaz & Smid. Hardest competition went to (F) Gaudreau, Byron & Colborne, (D) Brodie & Giordano.
    • Home? Easiest competition went to (F) Bollig, Jooris & Bouma, (D) Smid & Engelland. Hardest competition went to (F) Glencross, Stajan & Hudler, (D) Brodie & Giordano.
    • Yes, road teams are totally targeting Johnny Gaudreau, which is entirely what they should be doing as rational decision-makers.
      • RealMcHockeyReturns

        So to change the subject, I think Dallas is not done trading given their poor start and superb forward group that is not performing. How’s this for an idea:

        To Dallas: Ramo (they need better backup G), Russell (need 3rd D after Gonchar traded), McGrattan (toughness-intimidation factor), Byron (extra forward we give up with skill to play as complementary piece with Dallas top 2-3 lines)

        To Calgary: Dillon (future young and solid D), Roussel (gritty-talented F for us), Lindback (backup/minors G for Flames on expiring contract with Ortio awaiting and on 1-way NHL deal next year), and Flames net out to gain back 1 roster spot overall to keep Granlund or Ferland in NHL

      • Derzie

        I understand trying to see some positives but this talk of Bollig being ‘better at hockey’ than Big Ern is puzzling. Go back and read the lead article again. Both may be great guys but both are equally terrible.

        • RexLibris

          That isn’t entirely true.

          McGrattan is a liability defensively, but Bollig, while certainly limited in his NHL-calibre skill set, has a more varied set of tools to bring to the roster.

          He may not be a fighter in the same weight class as McGrattan, but that is becoming less and less important as time goes on.

          He can skate and forecheck well enough for a team with depth to find him occasionally useful (Chicago) and for those who value such things, he can also hold his own in a fight.

          Bollig is closer to the league-minimum in terms of 4th line functionality than McGrattan.

          If I had a question to Hartley about Bollig it would be why aren’t you giving him harsher ZS and trying to buoy Stajan and Glencross? Quenneville ran Bollig with an 18% OZS last year. 18%! The closest he got to the net was when he had to walk through the zamboni entrance to get to the ice.

          The ZS issue the graph displays is a really curious one for me. Hartley either won’t or can’t get any of his players prime OZone starts.

          • loudogYYC

            Chicago has one of the most balanced 4 lines of the past decade and they all pull their weight. Bollig is like Darren McCarty when he skated with Draper and Maltby back in the Detroit days, not the driver, just a complimentary passenger on a stacked bottom 6.

            The Flames don’t have an ideal line for Bollig’s skillset so my guess is we’ll be putting up with the shortcomings all season, unless he finds another gear and earns his way onto Monahan’s line.

      • prendrefeu

        This article will be cited by Lambert tomorrow for his “5 things” as evidence against the Flames and in support of ‘tank-mode’ because he believes that tanking is the only method acceptable.

        Of course when the top prospect has an injury which puts him out for a year, what does that do? Does it point to not ‘knowing’ whether a player may turn out a torch for the team or a bust due to injury/luck/attitude once they his the main stage?

      • My point with Gretzky was (well yeah, I know it was a business decision) that Pocklington called Gretzky a “diminishing asset,” which could be read as he wasn’t going to produce at the same level. And maybe he didn’t, but he also wasn’t surrounded by the same kind of talent in LA as he was in Edmonton.

      • Rock

        Let’s not forget at the end of the year with the great record Grats was in the line up doing pretty good. The others question would be would Monny be as good as he is with Grats or with out him I think Grats was a large part of his development

      • The Real Slim Brodie

        These individual numbers are interesting but what truly worries me about this team is the 2nd highest PDO and 3rd worst 5v5 Corsi in the league.

        This is the same type of thing that happened to the Leafs 2 years ago and Avs last year. Both teams came crashing down to earth in a bad way not long after.

        I hope we can defy the fancy stats but I am also a believer in them so here’s to hoping everyone else is wrong!!